A Tradeable Rally May Be Near 一个可交易的反弹或已接近

The US stock market may be at the point to have a tradeable rally after a nearly 20% drop from all time high. Technically 2730 to 2750 is a strong support band. In addition to being the recent low support,  it is also the 62% retracement level support of the move from the low of December last year to the all-time highs in February this year. The CCI is -227, the most oversold level in the past two years. Of course, a 62% retracement also shows a weak market. Once it breaks below 2730, the S & P 500 will completely retreat  back to the December low of 2346.

In case there is a tradeable rally, the S&P 500 may bounce to the 38% bounce level at 2986 and/or the 200 day moving average level at 3051.

Some fundamental developments may also help the bounce. They are:

1. Trump administration is active working on a fiscal policy to help the economy, even though it is not going to come to fruitful for a few weeks.

2. The House of Representatives is try to pass  an economic relief package for Americans hurt by the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak this Thursday.

3. IRS is considering to delay tax filing deadline.

4. ECB to easy monetary policy tomorrow.

5. Federal Reserve will like lower interest rate again next Wednesday.

Of course the rally can always derailed by bad news from the COVID-19 virus front. COVID-19 virus news will always abort any technical rebound.






技术上2730到2750是很强的支撑带。除了是近期低位外还是去年12月低位到今年2月份历史新高的62%回撤水平。CCI为-227，为近两年多来最超卖水平。当然回撤62%也显示市场的弱势，一旦击穿2730，则标普500会完全回撤到12月低位2346。

如果出现可交易的反弹，则标准普尔500指数可能会反弹至38％反弹水平2986及/或200天移动平均水平3051。

一些基本面发展也可能有助于反弹。 他们是：

1。特朗普政府正在积极制定一项旨在帮助经济的财政政策，即使它在两周内不会取得成果。

2。本周四众议院试图通过一项经济救济方案，向受本Covid-19疫情影响的美国人提供帮助。

3。国税局正在考虑推迟报税截止日期。

4。欧洲央行明天将实行宽松货币政策。

5。美联储将在下周三再次要求降低利率。

当然，从COVID-19病毒战线传来的坏消息总是会使反弹脱轨。 COVID-19病毒新闻将永远可以终止任何技术反弹。