。COVID-19 virus statistics
。Raymond James analyst Ed Mills noted bets on a fiscal response to fend off an economic downturn due to the coronavirus may be premature. "On the positive side, it does appear that President Trump has pivoted quickly towards supporting a bazooka-level fiscal stimulus package, ”He said in a note.“ More concerning is the lack of any congressional consensus (and skepticism) on what any fiscal package should look like and the fact that Congress will be in recess next week, pushing any deal to the week of March 23 , at the earliest. --- CNBC
。There's been a lot of central bank news this morning. The Central Bank of Iceland cut its benchmark lending rate by 50 bps to its lowest level ever. That, and BoE Governor Mark Carney simultaneously handed over the reins to his successor and emptied the central bank's stimulus hopper with an emergency 50 bp rate cut of its own. Now, ECB Governor Christine Lagarde, who left her perch at the IMF to take over the central bank late last year despite having little in the way of experience with monetary policy, has delivered her most dramatic warning yet about the potential risks to the European economy-and the global economy-if governments fail to act. According to Bloomberg, Lagarde said Europe risks a major economic shock on par with the global financial crisis if its leaders fail to act, and signaled that the central bank will follow the Fed and BoE with a monetary policy bombshell of its own on Thursday, when it delive rs its latest decision on interest rates and policy following the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. ---ZeroHedge
。Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday the S & P 500 bull market, the longest on record, is likely to end soon, forecasting a 28% slump from its February peak as the fast-spreading coronavirus is seen taking a toll on corporate profits. The bank expects the S & P 500 to hit 2,450 points, down 15% from current levels, by mid-year, followed by a bounce back in the fourth quarter to 3,200 points .--- Reuters
。European stocks rose on Wednesday after the Bank of England joined other central banks in cutting interest rates, raising hopes for more co-ordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus to counter the economic shock from the coronavirus outbreak. The BoE also announced measures to support bank lending. ---Reuters
。The Federal Reserve is likely to take short-term interest rates to near-zero by April, according to market pricing Wednesday morning. By next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the fed funds rate, which sets the cost of overnight borrowing and is used as a benchmark for a host of consumer interest rates, is expected to fall 75 basis points to a target range of 0.25% -0.5%, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool. Traders expect the Fed to lop off the remaining quarter-point by April, putting the funds rate where it was from 2008-15, during and after the financial crisis. Market pricing implies the funds rate to trade at 0.12% by the end of 2020; it is currently targeted in a range of 1% -1.25 % and most recently traded at 1.09% .--- CNBC
。Bank of America Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan cut his price target on the tech giant to $ 320 per share from $ 350 per share. Mohan expects Apple's supply chain to be constrained until April or May. “We now expect a more negative impact to global demand, as Covid-19 has spread well beyond China, "he said. --- CNBC
。Societe Generale SA was among the few cautious equity strategists at the start of the year to warn about investor complacency. Now the broker has moved to overweight from neutral on European oil & gas shares in the face of the turmoil in the energy and stock markets. “After the recent correction, we are ready to dip our toe into the depressed segments,” strategists including Roland Kaloyan wrote in a note, adding that the sector has overshot the drop in oil prices during the sell-off. ---Bloomberg
。期货交易显示美股将低开多于3%。
。COVID-19病毒统计：
。雷蒙德·詹姆斯（Raymond James）分析师埃德·米尔斯（Ed Mills）指出，为抵御冠状病毒带来经济不景气而采取财政措施的押注为时过早 。他在一份报告中说：“从积极的一面来看，特朗普总统似乎已迅速转向支持极端的财政刺激方案。”更令人担忧的是，国会对任何财政政策缺乏共识（和怀疑态度）。事实是国会将在下周休会，任何协议最早将推迟到3月23日的一周。--- CNBC
。今天早上有很多央行新闻。冰岛中央银行将基准贷款利率下调了50个基点，至历史最低水平。英国央行行长马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）同时将控制权移交给了他的继任者，并通过紧急降息50个基点来清空央行的刺激性措施。如今，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜•拉加德（Christine Lagarde）去年底离开IMF接管央行，尽管对货币政策的经验不足，但她已就有关欧洲经济的潜在风险发出了最为戏剧性的警告。如果政府不采取行动将对欧洲以及全球经济变坏的分线。据彭博社报道，拉加德表示，如果欧洲各国领导人不采取行动，欧洲将面临与全球金融危机同等的重大经济冲击，并暗示央行将在周四跟随美联储和英国央行而实施货币政策重磅政策，届时在为期两天的政策会议结束后，它会就利率和政策做出最新决定。 --Zero Hedge
。高盛（Goldman Sachs）周三表示，有史以来最长的标普500牛市很可能会很快结束，并预测由于迅速传播的冠状病毒会损害企业利润，因此股市会从2月份的峰值下跌28％。该银行预计，标准普尔500指数将在年中触及2,450点，较当前水平下跌15％，随后在第四季度反弹至3,200点。---路透社
。英格兰银行（Bank of England）与其他中央银行一起降低利率后，欧洲股市周三上涨，这引发了人们希望采取更多协调的货币和财政刺激措施来应对冠状病毒爆发带来的经济冲击。英国央行还宣布了支持银行贷款的措施。 ---路透社
。根据周三上午的市场定价，美联储可能会在4月之前将短期利率降至接近零。在下周的联邦公开市场委员会会议上，联邦储备基金利率将下降75个基点，至0.25％到0.5的目标范围，该利率决定隔夜借贷成本，并用作许多消费者利率的基准。根据CME的Fed Watch工具，交易员预计，美联储将在四月份之前削减剩余的四分之一点，使金融危机期间和之后的资金利率保持在2008-15年度的水平。市场定价意味着到2020年底基金利率将达到0.12％；目前的目标价位是1％-1.25％，最近的交易价格是1.09％。---CNBC
。美国银行证券分析师Wamsi Mohan将他对该科技巨头的价格目标从每股350美元下调至320美元。莫汉预计苹果的供应链将受到约束，直到四月或五月。他说：“我们现在预计，由于Covid-19已广泛传播到中国以外，因此对全球需求的负面影响更大。”-CNBC
。法国兴业银行是在今年初为数不多的谨慎的股票策略师之一，该公司警告投资者过份乐观。现在，面对能源和股票市场的动荡，该券商已将欧洲油气股的股票评级从“中立”调升至“增持”。“在最近的调整之后，我们已经准备好将开始进入这个被极端打压的板块。”包括罗兰·卡洛延（Roland Kaloyan）在内的战略家在一份报告中写道，并补充说该行业在油价下跌期间已经被抛售过度期。---Bloomberg
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