Saturday News Round Up 周六新闻综述

US confirmed cases jump
US confirmed COVID-19 cases jump from yesterday's 234 cases to tonight's 439, a 88% increase, 19 deaths. Virus has spread to 29 states.

Saudi Arabia slash oil price 
Following Friday's shocking collapse of OPEC+, when Russia and Riyadh were unable to reach an agreement during the OPEC+ summit in Vienna which was seeking up to 1.5 million b/d in further oil production cuts, on Saturday Saudi Arabia kick started what Bloomberg called an all-out oil war, slashing official pricing for its crude and making the deepest cuts in at least 20 years on its main grades, in an effort to push as many barrels into the market as possible.  Saudi Arabia cut its April pricing for crude sales to Asia by $4-$6 a barrel and to the U.S. by a whopping $7 a barrel in attempts to steal market share from 3rd party sources, according to a copy of the announcement seen by Bloomberg. In the most significant move, Aramco widened the discount for its flagship Arab Light crude to refiners in north-west Europe by a hefty $8 a barrel, offering it at $10.25 a barrel under the Brent benchmark. In contrast, Urals, the Russian flagship crude blend, trades at a discount of about $2 a barrel under Brent. Traders said the Saudi move was a direct attack at the ability of Russian companies to sell crude in Europe.  ---ZeroHedge

Goldman Sachs's bearish outlook
Goldman Sachs equity strategist David Kostin admits that "the US economy could slip into a recession if the coronavirus contagion lasts for an extended period of time"; as a reminder, just yesterday we noted that a global recession is now Bank of America's baseline assumption. In such a situation, Goldman estimates S & P 500 EPS would fall by 13% to $ 143 in 2020 and the index would decline to 2450 by year-end. --- ZeroHege

Mohamed A. El-Erian warns on deteriorating fundamentals
In remarks in a CNBC interview Monday and on Twitter, Mohamed A. El-Erian, the former Pimco chief executive  think the policies and fundamentals are going to go in favor of bad fundamentals , unfortunately, initially, "he said. He warned that the spread of the coronavirus would have cascading effects on the global economy, presenting a challenge that central bankers and other policy makers would find difficult to fix with traditional tools like rate cuts and fiscal stimulus .--- Market Watch

Will coronavirus stock selloff end bull market’s 11 year run?
“I recognize that bull markets don’t die of old age…but it is pretty evident that aging bull markets have more fragility,” said Jonathan Treussard, partner at Research Affiliates, in a phone interview.
Cracks had emerged long before anyone was aware of the coronavirus threat, Treussard said. Warning signs included the previous inversion of the yield curve, a reliable precursor of recession; renewed stress in the repo market; a rising percentage of corporate debt rated just one rung above junk status; historically high stock-market valuations relative to U.S. history and developed and emerging markets, and uncertainty over the 2020 presidential election. ---Market Watch

Italy poised to lock down Lombardy after coronavirus jump 
Italy is set to impose a virtual lockdown on its wealthiest and most populous region, which includes the financial capital Milan, as part of tough new measures to try to contain the coronavirus outbreak. The new rules include telling people not to enter or leave Lombardy, which is home to some 10 million people, as well as 11 provinces in four of Italy’s 19 other regions, according to a draft decree seen by Reuter.---Reuters

German coronavirus cases jump, economic anxiety rises
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany jumped by more than 100 on Saturday, reaching 795 by mid-afternoon amid growing concern at the economic impact of the spreading epidemic on one of the world’s most trade-dependent economies. The total confirmed cases is  well over 10 times larger than it was a week ago. There were 66 cases on Feb. 29. With concern growing at the vulnerability of long international supply chains to such an epidemic, Ola Kallenius, chief executive of Mercedes maker Daimler , warned against a return to economic nationalism. ---Reuters


China’s Exports Slump as Coronavirus Forces Shutdowns
China’s exports fell more than expected in the first two months of this year as the coronavirus outbreak led to extended holidays, depressed factory output, and blocked transport and movement across the country. Imports also declined, although increases in commodities purchases offset some of that.The drop in exports was a bigger-than-expected 17.2% in dollar terms, while imports declined 4%, according to a statement from Chinese customs Saturday. ---Bloomberg




美国确诊病例跳升
美国确诊的COVID-19病例从昨天的234例增加到今晚的439例，增长88％，死亡19人。病毒已传播到29个州。

沙特大幅下调油价
上周五欧佩克+会议崩溃后，俄罗斯和利雅得未能在维也纳举行的欧佩克+首脑会议上寻求达成150亿桶/天的进一步减产协议，沙特阿拉伯周六启动了所谓的“全面停产”协议的石油战争，削减其官方价格，并在至少20年以来对其主要石油等级进行最大幅度的削减，以努力将尽可能多的桶推向市场。彭博社看到的一份声明显示，沙特阿拉伯将其4月份对亚洲的原油销售价格每桶降低了4美元至6美元，将对美国的原油价格降低了每桶7美元，以试图从第三方渠道窃取市场份额。最重要的举动是，阿美将其旗舰级阿拉伯轻质原油对西北欧炼油商的折让扩大了每桶8美元，在布伦特基准价格之下，每桶的价格为10.25美元。相比之下，俄罗斯旗舰原油混合物乌拉尔（Urals）在布伦特原油期货的交易中，每桶折价约2美元。贸易商称，沙特此举是对俄罗斯公司在欧洲销售原油能力的直接攻击。 ---ZeroHedge

高盛看空前景
高盛（Goldman Sachs）股票策略师戴维·科斯汀（David Kostin）承认，“如果冠状病毒的传染持续较长时间，美国经济可能陷入衰退”。提醒一下，就在昨天，我们注意到全球经济衰退现在是美国银行的基准假设。在这种情况下，高盛估计，标普500每股收益在2020年将下降13％，至143美元，该指数到年底将下降至2450。 -ZeroHege

Mohamed A. El-Erian警告基本面恶化
在周一和CNBC的CNBC采访中，前Pimco首席执行官，现为安联首席经济顾问的穆罕默德·埃里安认为最初的政策和基本面将有利于糟糕的基本面。”他警告说，冠状病毒的扩散将对全球经济产生连锁反应，这对央行和其他政策提出了挑战。而其他政策制定者将发现很难通过降息和财政刺激等传统手段来解决。---Market Watch

冠状病毒导致的股票抛售是否会结束11年的牛市？
Research Affiliates合伙人乔纳森·特鲁萨德（Jonathan Treussard）在电话采访中说：“我认识到牛市不会老死……但是，很明显，老化的牛市具有更大的脆弱性。” 特雷萨德说，裂缝早在任何人都知道冠状病毒威胁之前就已经出现了。 警告信号包括先前的收益率曲线倒挂，这是衰退的可靠前兆。 回购市场压力增加； 公司债务的百分比上升，仅比垃圾债券高1个等级； 相对于美国历史以及发达和新兴市场而言，股票市场达到历史最高估值，以及2020年总统大选的不确定性。

意大利在冠状病毒人数跳升后准备锁定伦巴第
意大利将对包括金融首都米兰在内的最富有和人口最多的地区实行虚拟封锁，以此作为遏制冠状病毒爆发的强硬新措施的一部分。 根据路透社看到的一项法令草案，新规定包括告诉人们不要进入或离开伦巴第大区。伦巴第大区约有1000万人，还有意大利其他19个地区中的四个省的11个省。

德国冠状病毒病例激增，经济焦虑加剧
德国确诊的冠状病毒病例数在周六跃升了100多例，到午后达到795例。确诊病例总数比一周前大十倍以上。引发人们日益担心这种流行病毒对世界上贸易最依赖的经济体之一的经济影响。2月29日，有66起案件。梅赛德斯制造商戴姆勒（Daimler）首席执行官Ola Kallenius担心  长久供应链容易受到这种流行病毒的影响，他警告不要重返经济民族主义。 ---路透社

由于冠状病毒被迫关闭，中国出口下滑
今年头两个月，中国出口下降超过预期，原因是冠状病毒的爆发导致假期延长，工厂产量下降，运输和运输受到阻碍。进口也有所下降，尽管大宗商品购买量的增加抵消了部分下降。根据中国海关周六的一份声明，以美元计算，出口下降幅度超过了预期17.2％，而进口则下降了4％。 ---彭博
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