No Reason For Optimism 没有理由乐观

。Latest COVID-19 statistics:

Global cases: More than 744,438
Global deaths: At least 35,159
US cases: At least 143,724
US deaths: At least 3.207

。Across the United States, jails and prisons are reporting an accelerating spread of the new disease, and they are taking a varied approach to protecting the inmates in their charge. Thousands of inmates are being released from detention, in some cases with little or no medical screening to determine if they may be infected by the coronavirus and at risk of spreading it into the community, Reuters found. Since March 22, jails have reported 226 inmates and 131 staff with confirmed cases of COVID-19, according to a Reuters survey of cities and counties that run America’s 20 largest jails. The numbers are almost certainly an undercount given the fast spread of the virus. Hot spots include Cook County jail in Chicago, Illinois. Since the first case was confirmed there on Sunday, the virus has infected 89 inmates and nine staff. Test results are pending for 92 other detainees. ---Reuters

。China’s central bank joined the global easing bandwagon early on Monday when it unexpectedly cut the rate on reverse repurchase agreements by 20 basis points, the largest in nearly five years, as authorities stepped up measures to relieve pressure on an economy ravaged by coronavirus pandemic. Without giving a reason for the move, the People’s Bank of China said on its website that it was lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 2.20% from 2.40%, the lowest on record. This was the first rate cut since a 10bps cut in December 2019, and the third cut in the 7-day rate since November. ---ZeroHedge

。There is simply too much optimism in the stock market, and in many cases investors are buying without doing research. Here are a few examples:

• Abbott Laboratories ABT, +7.87% has come up with a coronavirus test that takes five minutes. The revenues from the coronavirus test will dwarf those that Abbott is likely to lose due to issues related to coronavirus. Investors are running up the stock.

• Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +6.87% is making great progress on a coronavirus vaccine. Johnson & Johnson is likely to sell the vaccine at cost. This will have no material increase in earnings. Investors are running up the stock.

• General Motors GM, -0.37% will make ventilators. It is selling them at cost, so they will have no impact on earnings. Investors are running up the stock.

• Medtronic MDT, +2.47% makes ventilators, which are a small portion of its business. At the same time, Medtronic is suffering because its sales are likely to drop due to the postponement of non-essential surgeries. Investors aren’t seeing the whole picture. And, yes, they are running up the stock.

---Nigam Arora via Marketwatch

。On Sunday's press conference， Trump said:"We will be extending our guidelines through April 30 to slow the spread. On Tuesday we will finalizing these plans and providing a summary of our findings, supporting data, and strategy to the American people." "We will have an important statement tuesday, probably Tuesday evening, on all of the finding and all of the data and the reasons we are doing things the way we are doing them." "We can expect that by June 1, we will be well on our way to recovery"---Mish Talk

。Microsoft founder and philanthropist Bill Gates was heard on CNN Global Town Hall on Thursday (March 26) as saying six to ten weeks of lockdowns across the country is now necessary to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Gates said the response in the US was slow and chaotic. He said if the government would have "behaved a little bit like the countries that have done the best on this one" – then maybe the spread could have been suppressed. He warned that the "peak" in cases and deaths is not close, indicating that further lockdowns will be needed to flatten the curve and slowdown infections to avoid hospital systems from being overwhelmed. ---ZeroHedge



。最新的COVID-19统计信息：

全球案例：超过732,153
全球死亡人数：至少34,686
美国案件：至少143,055
美国死亡人数：至少2,513


。在美国各地，监狱正在报告新疾病的加速传播，并且他们正在采取各种不同的方法来保护囚犯。路透社发现，成千上万的囚犯被释放出狱，在某些情况下，他们几乎没有进行医学筛查以确定他们是否可能被冠状病毒感染，并有传播到社区的风险。根据路透社对美国20个最大监狱的县市调查，自3月22日以来，监狱已报告226名囚犯和131名工作人员确诊COVID-19病例。考虑到病毒的迅速传播，这些数字几乎可以算是低估了。热点包括伊利诺伊州芝加哥的库克县监狱。自从星期天在那里确认第一例病例以来，该病毒已经感染了89名囚犯和9名工作人员。其他92名被拘留者的检测结果正在等待中。 ---路透社

。周一早些时候，中国央行加入了全球宽松政策行列，它意外地将反向回购协议的利率下调了20个基点，为近五年来最大水平，原因是当局加大了对缓解冠状病毒大流行的经济的压力。中国人民银行没有给出任何举动的理由，但在其网站上表示将将7天反向回购利率从2.40％降至历史最低的2.20％。这是自2019年12月降息10个基点以来的首次降息，也是自11月以来的7天利率的第三次降息。 ---Zero Hedge

。投资人实在是太乐观了，在许多情况下，投资者是在没有做研究的情况下买进股票的。这里有一些例子：

•Abbott Laboratories ABT，+ 7.87％提供了一项需时5分钟的冠状病毒测试。冠状病毒测试的收入与冠状病毒有关的问题而可能损失的收入相形见撮。投资者却在推高股票。

•强生公司（Johnson＆Johnson JNJ）在冠状病毒疫苗方面取得了巨大的进步，股票+ 6.87％。强生很可能会以成本价出售疫苗。这将不会大幅增加公司的收入。投资者却在推高股票。

•通用汽车GM，-0.37％将制造通风机。它将以成本价出售，因此它们不会对收益产生影响。投资者却在推高股票。

•美敦力MDT生产呼吸机+ 2.47％，这只是其业务的一小部分。同时，美敦力（Medtronic）遭受苦难的原因是，由于不必要的手术推迟，其销售额可能会下降。投资者看不到全貌。而且，是的，投资者却在推高股票。

--- Nigam Arora通过Marketwatch

。特朗普在周日的新闻发布会上说：“我们将把原定指导方针延长至4月30日，以减缓这种蔓延。周二，我们将敲定这些计划，并向美国人民总结我们的发现，支持的数据和战略。” “我们将在周二（可能是周二晚上）发表重要声明，说明所有调查结果，所有数据以及我们按照自己的方式行事的原因。” “我们预计到6月1日，我们将步入复苏之路” --- Mish Talk

。微软创始人兼慈善家比尔·盖茨周四（3月26日）在CNN全球会堂会议中说，现在应该在全国范围内实行六至十周的封锁，以减轻COVID-19的蔓延。盖茨说，美国的反应是缓慢而混乱的。他说，如果政府将“表现得像在这方面做得最好的国家一样” –那么扩散可能会受到抑制。他警告说，案件和死亡的“高峰”还没有结束，这表明将需要进一步封锁以使曲线变平并降低感染的速度，以避免医院系统不堪重负。 ---Zero Hedge