Monday, March 2, 2020

How High Can The Market Bounce 市场能反弹多高

Technical factors and expectation of concerted action by G7 countries tomorrow will likely rally the market at least for another or two.

G7 finance ministers and central backer will be meeting by telephone tomorrow morning:

As concerns about the coronavirus outbreak escalate, the world's major powers are considering a coordinated response to shield the global economy from further fallout.  Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chair Powell will lead a phone call with other Group of Seven leaders Tuesday morning, a Treasury spokesperson said in a statement to Business Insider. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on France 2 television :"There will be a concerted action," "We must act so that this impact that we know will be important on growth, be as limited as possible."

Major US market indexes had their biggest point gains ever:







Technically, all major market indexes closed at today's high and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have recovered above their 200 day moving averages are good signs and should provide more upside follow up tomorrow. The S&P 500 will likely challenge its 50% retracement level of the big drop from all time high down to last Friday's low at 3124. Since historic resistance at 3150 is only 26 points away, it may as well go there. It may even go up to test the 62.8% fibonacci retracement level at 3188. If news come out of G7 tomorrow morning is good and there's no big increases in confirmed infection cases in United States in the next few days ,the maximum this bounce can go is where the 20 day moving average crosses 50 day moving average at around 3264. Lets recap: For bouncing to 3150, 3188 and 3264,  it will be 60, 98 and 174  S&P 500 point rise from the current level of 3090 respectively. And these translate into approximately 600, 980 and 174 0 Dow points respectively. Which level do you think it will bounce to? Let me give you another fact, the Dow dropped 4887 points from its all time high to Friday's low in just 12 days.  It is a crazy market, when it drop big, it can bounce big too. I don't know what you think, I think the market trend is down and there is going to be a retest of the low after bounce. I would pay real close attention to the coronavirus development in United States. If I see confirmed cases moving up fast, the stock market will be doom again. Initially I would target 3188 for this bounce and will sell stock real fast if things don't look right.












技术因素和七国集团明天将采取协调一致行动的期望将至少使市场反弹多一两天。

七国集团财长和中央支持者明天早上将通过电话开会:

随着人们对冠状病毒爆发的担忧升级,世界主要大国正在考虑采取协调一致的行动,以保护全球经济免受进一步的影响。财政部发言人在给《商业内幕》的一份声明中说,财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)和联储主席鲍威尔(Powell)将于周二上午与其他七国集团领导人进行电话通话。法国财政大臣布鲁诺·勒梅雷(Bruno Le Maire)在法国2号电视台上说:“一定要采取协调一致的行动。” “我们必须采取行动,尽可能限制对经济增长的负面影响至关重要。”


美国主要市场指数上涨点数为有历史以来最大







从技术上讲,各大指数均收在今天最高位,加上标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均已恢复至他们200日移动均线上方,这都是个好现象,明天继续上行的机会大。标普500指数很可能挑战其从历史高位回落至上周五低点跌幅的50%的回撤位3124。由于历史阻力位3150仅26点之差,它很可能会上去。它甚至可能上升到测试3188的62.8%斐波那契回撤水平。如果明天早上七国集团(G7)传出好消息,并且接下来几天美国确诊感染病例没有大幅增加,则这次反弹最大可能会到达20天移动均线和50天移动均线的汇聚点3264水平。让我们回顾一下:反弹至3150、3188和3264,将分别从当前的3090水平上涨60、98和174点。这些分别转换为大约600、980和174点道琼斯点。您认为它将反弹到哪个水平?让我再给你一个事实,道琼斯指数在短短12天内从历史最高点至周五的最低点共下跌了4887点。这是一个疯狂的市场,当跌幅很大时,它反弹也会大。我不知道您的想法,我认为市场趋势还是看跌的,反弹后重新测试低点的机会大。我将密切关注美国的冠状病毒的发展情况。如果我看到确诊病例迅速上升,那么股市将再次下跌。最初,我会将这次反弹的目标定为3188,如果情况看起来不太好,我会很快卖出股票而做空。








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