Today's US Stock Market 1/31/2024

Manufacturing activity in China contracted for a fourth straight month in January, an official factory survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting economic momentum was flagging at the start of 2024. Shanghai Composite and Hengseng Indexes are down 1.48% and 1.39% respectively. Shanghai Composite has been on a downtrend since 2021 high. Weakness in Chinese economy may eventually negatively impact economy of the world.

Federal Reserve is to make interest rate announcement at 11AM West Coast Time today. No change in interest rate is widely expected consensus. January Chicago PMI dipped to 46.0 vs. 48.0 and 47.2 in December (revised from 46.9). Treasury ETF TLT is up 0.90% and 10 Year Yield (TNX) is down to 3.95%.

As expected, sell on news happened after tech earnings. Nasdaq Composite sink after GOOG -6.31%, MSFT -1.29% and AMD -3.9% 's earning reports. GOOG reported holiday season advertising sales below expectation and projected higher spending this year. MSFT is forcasting rising costs to develop new artificial intelligence features that eclipse a better than expected earnings. AMD's Q1 revenue forecast and a boosted projection for AI processors by $1.5 billion failed to meet expectations. After tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index ETF QQQ surged 48% in the past 12 months, it's time to have a correction. More downside action in tech stocks is likely. There are more worries tomorrow as AMZN, META and AAPL report their earnings.

After moving up 5 days in a row, Bitcoin is consolidating around $43000. It may start to move up again if 43000 holds. Mining stocks are steady.

今日美股 1/31/2024

周三的官方工厂调查显示，1 月份中国制造业活动连续第四个月萎缩，表明 2024 年初经济增长势头疲软。上证综合指数和恒生指数分别下跌 1.48% 和 1.39%。 上证综指自2021年高点以来一直处于下跌趋势。 中国经济的疲软最终可能对世界经济产生负面影响。

美联储将于西海岸时间今天上午 11 点发布利率政策。 人们普遍预计利率不会发生变化。 1 月份芝加哥 PMI 降至 46.0，市场预期为 48.0，12 月份为 47.2（修正为 46.9）。国债 ETF TLT 上涨 0.90%，10 年期收益率 (TNX) 下跌至 3.95%。

如预期一样，科技股在发布才报后被抛售。GOOG -6.31%、MSFT-1.29% 和 AMD-3.9% 公布盈利报告后，纳斯达克综合指数大跌1.6%。 谷歌报告假日季广告销售低于预期，并预计今年的支出将会增加。 微软预计开发新人工智能功能的成本将会上升，尽管盈利好于预期。 AMD 第一季度营收预测以及 AI 处理器上调 15 亿美元的预测均未能达到预期。 在过去 12 个月内，以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF QQQ 飙升 48% 后，现在是时候进行调整了。 科技股可能会出现更多的下行走势。 明天的担忧是 AMZN、META 和 AAPL 的财报。

在连续上涨 5 天后，比特币在 43000 美元附近盘整。 如果守住43000点，可能会再次开始上涨。 挖矿业股稳定。

今日美股1/24/2024

Netflix (NFLX) 公布的盈利好于预期，并指导第一季度盈利高于预期。 其股价飙升 11.5%，引领科技股上涨。 标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数均连续 4 天创下历史新高。 过去一年中，QQQ、SPY 和 DIA 分别增长了 48%、22% 和 13%。 此类大幅上升很可能会引发调整，尤其是科技股。 在接下来的两周内，主要科技股将发布财报，无论财报好坏，消息传出后的抛售的可能性大。 是要谨慎的时候了。 面对大幅上涨的市场，纳斯达克 100 指数和标准普尔 500 指数恐惧指标 VXN 和 VXX 今天均保持稳定，这些都是即将出现抛售的警告。 市场立即面临的风险来自 TSLA、IBM 和 LRCX 今天晚些时候的财报。

比特币从 38500 美元附近的近期低点回升至 40000 美元以上。 这应该有助于稳定近期比特币相关股票的大幅下跌。

Today's US Stock Market 1/24/2024

Netflix (NFLX) reported better than expected earnings and guided Q1 earnings higher. Its stock surged 11.5% higher and is leading tech stock rally. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are both making record highs 4 days in a row. In the last 1 year QQQ, SPY and DIA are up 48%, 22% and 13% respectively. These kind of big moves will likely usher in corrections, especially in tech stocks. In the next 2 weeks, major tech stocks will be releasing earnings, regardless good or bad reports, sell on news will likely be course of action. It is time to be cautious. Both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Fear Gauges VXN and VXX are both stable today in the face of a big up market, these are warnings of an impending sell off. The risks the market is facing immediately are reports from TSLA,  IBM and LRCX's earning reports later today. 

Bitcoin recovered above $40000 from a recent low near $38500. This should help to stabilize the recent sharp drop in Bitcoin related stocks.

Today's US Stock Market 1/22/2024

A weaker Leading economic indicator (down 21 months in a row) is supportive for lower interest rate to day as TLT is up 1% and 10 year Treasury yield is down to 4.079% from last Friday's 4.198. Though the odd of a March rate cut has now dropped to 40.5% from two week's ago's 75%.

After breaking above all time high 4818.62 last Friday, the breakout momentum is driving the  S&P 500 up more this morning. It is now likely that it will rally towards the psychologically important 5000 level.The Dow and Nasdaq Composite are also making all time high, and their resistances are 40000 and 15600 respectively. 

As the indexes are making new highs, tech stock prices are in extended  levels. Whether the rally can continue or not will depend on the results of corporate eanings. Another thing that's worrisome is that the Shanghai Composite index has been down on a down trend since its February high in 2021 and is now at 5 year low. The question is if China has trouble, will the world still safe?

Influential earning reports this week are as follows:

Monday: UAL; Tuesday: JNJ, PG, NFLX, VZ , TXN, GE,MMM, LMT; Wednesday: TSLA, ASML, SAP, IBM, T, LRCX; Thursday: V, INTC; Friday: AXP.

Bitcoin continues its downside correction and is down $968 to $40674 ,testing the $40000 support level. However Bitcoin related stocks are mostly up today as COIN +3.37%, RIOT +2.72%, MARA +1.80%, BTBT +3.16%. This divergence may be explained by most Bitcoin related stocks are mostly down over 50% and Bitcoin is only down 18% from recent highs. So, Bitcoin related stocks may rally before Bitcoin.

今日美股 1/22/2024

较弱的美国领先经济指标（连续 21 个月下降）支持今日较低的利率，因为 TLT 上涨 1%，10 年期国债收益率从上周五的 4.198 跌至 4.079%。 不过，3 月份降息的可能性已从两周前的 75% 降至 40.5%。

继上周五突破历史高点 4818.62 点后，今天早上的突破势头正在推动标普 500 指数进一步上涨。 现在很可能会向上挑战重要的心理关口5000点水平。道琼斯指数和纳斯达克综合指数也创出历史新高，阻力位分别为40000点和15600点水平。

随着股票指数创出新高，科技股价格处于高度扩张水平。 涨势能否持续将取决于企业盈利结果。 另一件令人担忧的事情是，上证指数自2021年2月高点以来一直呈下跌趋势，现在正处于5年来的低位。问题是，如果中国有麻烦，世界会安全吗？

本周有影响力的财报如下：

周一：UAL； 周二：JNJ、PG、NFLX、VZ、TXN、GE、MMM、LMT； 周三：TSLA、ASML、SAP、IBM、T、LRCX； 星期四：V，INTC； 周五：AXP。

比特币继续下行修正，下跌 968 美元至 40674 美元，正在测试 40000 美元的支撑位。 然而，比特币相关股票今天大多上涨，COIN +3.37%，RIOT +2.72%，MARA +1.80%，BTBT +3.16%。 这种差异可能是由于大多数比特币相关股票大多下跌超过 50%，而比特币仅较近期高点只下跌 18%。 因此，比特币相关股票可能会领先于比特币上涨。

今日美股 1/19/2024

上证综合指数下跌0.47%，恒生指数下跌0.54%。 由于当地股市的巨额亏损不断扩大，中国最大的券商中信证券限制了部分客户的卖空行为。 中国股市继续呈下跌趋势。

摩根大通股票策略师表示，在第四季度财报季持续进行之际，标准普尔 500 指数公司的业绩表现不佳，前瞻性指引也持谨慎态度。 总体而言，策略师指出，在当前的财报季到来之际，股市“面临着很高的门槛”。 “任何缺乏强有力的企业指引来重申当前高增长预期的行为都可能会受到惩罚。” 摩根大通策略师总结道。

AAPL 上涨 0.71%，Evercore ISI 将其列入首选名单。 半导体股指ETF SMH上涨 1.97%，因 TSM 的盈利好于预期，而且这家芯片制造巨头也对人工智能需求前景表示乐观。

美国个大股指第二天上涨，但都面临重要阻力：道琼斯指数37825，标准普尔500指数4802，纳斯达克综合指数15150。第四季度财报结果将决定是否会出现突破。 美国市场在这个水平上存在风险。

比特币跌至近 40000 美元，这是一个月区间的低端和整数，这应该是一个很好的反弹水平。比特币从近期高位49000美元下跌了18% 到40000美元。 加密矿业股票跌得特别多而有些过分。 BTBT 在回调近 60% 后，应该会在 2.40 美元左右找到买家。

Today's US Stock Market 1/19/2024

Shanghai Composite fell 0.47% and Hang Seng index fell 0.54%. CITIC Securities Co Ltd, China's biggest brokerage restricted short-selling for some clients amid growing, outsized losses in local stock markets. Chinese stock market continues trending down.

JP Morgan equity strategists said amidst the ongoing Q4 earnings season, S&P 500 companies are delivering subdued results and cautious forward guidance. Overall, the strategists noted that the stock market is "facing a high bar" when it comes to the ongoing earnings season. " Anything short of strong corporate guidance re-affirming current high growth expectation is likely to be penalized." JP Morgan strategists concluded.

AAPL is up 0.71% as Evercore ISI put it in top pick list. Semiconductor stock index  ETF SMH rises 1.97% as better than expected earnings from TSM and as the chipmaking giant also flagged a positive outlook on AI demand.

US stock indexes are up the second day but they are all facing resistances ahead at : Dow 37825, S&P 500 4802 and Nasdaq Composite 15150. The results of Q4 earnings will determine whether breakouts are going to occur or not. The US market is risky at this level.

Bitcoin dropped to near $40000 the low end of a one month range and a round number, this should be a good level for a bounce.  Bitcoin dropped 18% from near term high of $49000 to near $40000. Crypto mining stocks dropped especially big and seem excessive.  BTBT after near 60% retracement should find buyers coming in at around $2.40.

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我有幸长期生活在世界科技中心旧金山湾区硅谷，亲身经历了半导体、个人电脑、互联网、手机、加密货币等科技演进时期。 科技世界瞬息万变，每十年都会有所不同。 对于那些有远见并提前参与的人来说，每一次的演变都带来了巨大的利润。 我很遗憾地说我错过了所有这些机会，因为我当时还没有准备好，也不知道如何去做。 然而，机会总是留给有准备的人的。 这次我已经准备好了，因为我对科技和投资都有很好的了解，最重要的是，我思想开放及愿意尝试新事物。 我坚信区块链技术正在推动世界进入第三代互联网Web 3、去中心化、代币化经济和全球采用的加密货币时代。 我知道这是不可避免的趋势，因为很多与此相关的项目正在不断涌现。 最棒的是，人们可以通过免费参与这些项目来从这些科技革命中获利！ 方法是尽可能地参与多种免费的加密货币挖矿项目，免费收集不同的加密资产并等待收获时间的到来。 而且收获的时间已经很接近了。 相信它，它将极大地改善您的财务未来。 当我参与的每个项目都在朝着完成的方向前进，并且我每天 24 小时都在免费赚取加密货币时，我从未感觉到如此美好！

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What is BRC-20?

BRC-20 tokens are an experimental token standard for the Bitcoin blockchain. Inspired by Ethereum's ERC-20, BRC-20 enables developers to create and transfer fungible tokens using the Ordinals protocol. Unlike the ERC-20 token standard, BRC-20 doesn't make use of smart contracts.

The BRC-20 token standard was created in early March 2023 by Domo, an enigmatic blockchain analyst. Nevertheless, the genesis of BRC-20 tokens can be traced back to Bitcoin's Taproot upgrade in November 2021, which increased the data capacity within Bitcoin blocks.

BRC-20 tokens are fungible digital assets created on the Bitcoin blockchain. These tokens are unique because they are inscribed directly onto Bitcoin's satoshis using JSON code, making them distinct from traditional tokens on platforms like Ethereum.

The growing  popularity of BRC-20 has led to the rise of the BRC-20 token market capitalization to $928.44 million in a short period, with over 13,530 tokens in circulation. The token standards are currently evolving. Today, there are DRC and ORC token standards.

什么是BRC-20？

BRC-20 代币是比特币区块链的实验性代币标准。 受以太坊 ERC-20 的启发，BRC-20 使开发人员能够使用 Ordinals 协议创建和转移可替代代币。 与 ERC-20 代币标准不同，BRC-20 不使用智能合约。

BRC-20 代币标准由神秘的区块链分析师 Domo 于 2023 年 3 月上旬创建。 尽管如此，BRC-20 代币的起源可以追溯到 2021 年 11 月比特币的 Taproot 升级，该升级增加了比特币区块内的数据容量。

BRC-20 代币是在比特币区块链上创建的可替代数字资产。 这些代币是独一无二的，因为它们使用 JSON 代码直接刻在比特币的聪上，这使得它们与以太坊等平台上的传统代币不同。

BRC-20 的日益普及导致 BRC-20 代币市值在短时间内上升至 9.2844 亿美元，流通中的代币数量超过 13,530 个。 代币标准目前正在不断发展。 如今，有 DRC 和 ORC 代币标准。

今日美股 1/4/2024

美联储上个月的会议纪要似乎给降息的乐观情绪浇了一盆冷水。 上周（截至 12 月 30 日当周）首次申请失业救济的美国人人数从前一周的 22 万降至 20.2 万。 这基本上是 2023 年的低点。 此消息也不支持降息。 国债 ETF TLT 下跌 1.23%，而 10 年期国债收益率今早攀升至 接近4%。

继昨天大幅下跌后，比特币反弹至 43972 美元，但仍受制于 40000 美元至 45000 美元的一个月交易区间。 投资者正在等待 SEC 对比特币现货 ETF 是否获准交易的裁决。 比特币短期走势尚不清楚。

苹果公司 (AAPL) 在本周第二次被调低评级。Piper Sandler 分析师 Harsh Kumar 下调AAPL 的评级，原因是中国宏观环境恶化，可能对手机业务造成压力。 Kumar 将 AAPL 评级下调至中立，目标价 205。AAPL 下跌 1.10%。 瑞穗（Mizuho）将亚马逊 (AMZN) 目标价从 180 美元上调至 220 美元。 然而，AMZN - 1.17%连续第四天下跌. 

纳斯达克综合指数连续第五天下跌并 跌破20日均线14750点支撑，短期趋势向下。在经历了近二十年来最糟糕的开年之后，纳斯达克指数在年初连续下跌 1% 以上，这只是历史上第三次（另外两年是 1980 年和 2005 年）。 与此同时，标准普尔 500 指数保持在20 日移动均线 4706 点之上，正在帮助市场反弹。 如果未能守住这一水平，市场可能会出现更多抛售。 随着美国国债收益率回升以及科技股进一步走软，市场可能会出现更多抛售。

Today's US Stock Market 1/4/2024

Minutes from the Fed's meeting last month has seemingly poured cold water on much of the optimism on interest rate cut. The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to just 202k last week (week-ending Dec 30th) from +220k the prior week. That is basically 2023 lows. This news is also not supporting rate cut. Treasury ETF TLT is down 1.23% while 10 year Treasury yield climbing to near 4% this morning. 

After dropping big yesterday, Bitcoin bounces to $43972, but it is still bounded by the one month trading range of $40000 to $45000. Investors are waiting for SEC's verdict on whether Bitcoin Spot ETFs would be approved for trading. Short term Bitcoin trend is unknown. 

Apple (AAPL) gets 2nd downgrade this week from Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar on deteriorating macro environment in China which could weigh on the handset business. Kumar downgrades AAPL rating to Neutral, price target 205. AAPL is down 1.10%. Mizuho raises Amazon.com (AMZN) price target from $180 to $220. However, AMZN - 1.17% is dropping for the 4th day this morning.  

Nasdaq Composite falls for the 5th day in a row. It dropped below its 20 day moving average at 14750. Its short term trend is now down. After the worst start start to the year in almost two decades - it was just the third time in history that the Nasdaq started the year with back to back 1%+ declines (the other two years were 1980 and 2005). Meanwhile, the S&P 500's 20 day moving average at 4706 held and is helping the market bounce. If this level fails to hold, more market sell off is likely.  With Treasury yields going back up and further weakness in tech stocks, more market sell off is likely. 

Today's US Stock Market 1/3/2024

Bitcoin plummets over 9% at one point on pessimistic ETF report from Matrixport which said: We expect the SEC to Reject all proposals in January. The firm's analysis suggests that despite meeting several Sec requirements, all Bitcoin Spot ETF application will likely fall short of a critical requirement, leading to their rejection. Matrixport analyst think the requirement may be fullfill in Q2 of this year. Bitcoin related stocks are down. 

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin sees the economy likely soft landing ahead but notes rate hikes still a possibility. Treasury ETF TLT is down 1% while 10 year Treasury yield climbs to 4%.

DA Davidson initiated Nvidia (NVDA) coverage with Neutral and target $410. NVDA is down 1.4% . Davidson also made negative comments on Apple (AAPL), AAPL is down 0.92%. Truist Securities maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Hold and target $228 . TSLA is down over 4%.

Interest rate cut expectation has cooled, negative comments by analysts on major tech stocks and beginning of the year profit taking continue to pressure the US stock market. The Nasdaq Composite has dropped below its 20 day moving average at 14735, its next level of support is 14400. The S&P 500 is near critical support at 50day moving average at 4700, if dropping below, its next support is 4600. The Dow's support is 20 day moving average at 37082. More market downside is likely.

今日美股 1/3/2024

Matrixport 悲观的 ETF 报告称：我们预计 SEC 将在一月份拒绝所有提案，比特币曾暴跌超过 9%。 该公司的分析表明，尽管满足了几项美国证券交易委员会的要求，但所有比特币现货 ETF 申请都可能达不到关键要求，从而导致被拒绝。 Matrixport分析师认为这一要求可能会在今年第二季度得到满足。 比特币相关股票均下跌。

里士满（Richmond）联储主席托马斯·巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）认为经济未来可能软着陆，但指出加息的可能性仍然存在。 国债 ETF TLT 下跌 1%，而 10 年期国债收益率攀升至 4%。

DA Davidson 对 Nvidia (NVDA) 给予中性评级，目标价 410 美元。 NVDA 下跌 1.4%。 DA Davidson 还对苹果公司(AAPL)发表了负面评论，苹果公司下跌0.92%。 Truist Securities 维持特斯拉 (TSLA) 的评级，评级为“持有”，目标价为 228 美元。 TSLA 下跌超过 4%。

降息预期降温，分析师对主要科技股的负面评论以及年初获利回吐继续令美国股市承压。 纳指已跌破20日均线14735点，下一个支撑位为14400点。标普500指数接近关键支撑位50日均线4700点，若跌破，下一个支撑位为4600点。道指支撑位为 20 日移动平均线位于 37082。市场可能会进一步下行。

Today's US Stock Market 1/2/2024

Bitcoin rose sharply to 21 month high amid increased speculation that the SEC was close to approving a spot ETF for the world's largest crypto currency. According to Reuters, the SEC will notify aplicants by as soon as this week on whether they have been cleared to lauch their products by January 10. Bitcoin broke above 1 month trading range between $40000 and $45000, we need to see if it can stay before participating. 

Treasury ETF TLT is down the 3rd day in a row today, and 10 year yield is up to 3.933%. Rising Treasury yield is negative for stocks. 

World stock markets are mostly down in the first trading day of the year.

Barclays analyst Tim Long downgraded the rating of Apple (AAPL) from Equal Weight to UnderWeight, expressing concerns about a prolonged period of weak results and the potential for multiple expansion not being sustainable. AAPL price target set to $160 a near 17% downside risk. AAPL is down over 3.5%. All the "Magnificent 7" stocks are down. 

The theme between now and middle of january is profit taking on high flying high tech stocks after a tremendous performance last year. Investors refused to sell stocks with big gain last year due to tax consequences are likely come out and sell at the new year. After initial sell off, Q4 earnings report coming out mid January will decide the fate of the stock market. 

今日美股 1/2/2024

由于越来越多的人猜测 SEC 即将批准全球最大加密货币的现货 ETF，比特币大幅上涨至 21 个月高点。 据路透社报道，SEC 最快将于本周通知申请人是否已获准在 1 月 10 日之前推出其产品。比特币突破了 40000 美元至 45000 美元之间的 1 个月交易区间，但我们需要看看它是否能保持在$45000以上一段时间 才考虑 参与。

国债ETF TLT今天连续第三天下跌，10年期收益率升至3.933%。 美国国债收益率上升对股市不利。

世界股票市场在今年第一个交易日都大多下跌。

巴克莱（Barclay）分析师蒂姆·朗 (Tim Long) 将苹果公司 (AAPL) 的评级从“持平”下调至“减持”，表达了对长期疲软业绩以及不可持续的多重扩张潜力的担忧。 AAPL 目标价设定为 160 美元，存在近 17% 的下行风险。 苹果股价今早下跌超过 3.5%。 “伟大7人组”的所有个均下跌。

从现在到一月中旬的主题是在去年表现出色之后，高涨的高科技股票的获利了结将拖累股市。 由于考虑到税收后果，投资者去年拒绝出售大幅上涨的股票，而这些股票可能会在新的一年被投资人抛售。 在抛售之后，一月中旬公布的第四季度财报将决定股市的命运。