Morning Market News Digest 早盘市场新闻摘要

。Pacific Time 7:16AM : Dow -23, S&P 500 -5.5， Nasdaq -27.8, Russell 2000 -8. WTI crude oil +0.12%，Gold -0.06%， US dollar index -0.06%.

。Oversea markets: Shanghai -0.44%, Japan-0.79%, Hong Kong-0.13%, Germany +0.08%, UK -0.57%, France+0.22%.

。Weak sectors: XRT, EEM, XLY, IYM, GDXJ,FXI, FDN  Strong sectors: PPH

。Wall Street is pointing to modest declines, with U.S. stock index futures down 0.3%, amid shaky trade talks, the collapse of the North Korea summit and escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。The market is downright bullish. The market is downright bullish. There is little reason to argue the point given the bullish trend since the December 24th lows. Of course, such is not surprising given the Fed’s dovish turn from tightening monetary policy to quietly putting the “punch bowl” back on the table.  But yet, this rally is occurring at a time where Europe’s earnings growth rates for the just reported Q4-period stands at a -1% annualized, which is the lowest since Q2-2016, and the U.S. is on the verge of an earnings recession as well as declining economic data. Something doesn’t quite jive.---Zero Hedge

 。Gross domestic product increased at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter after expanding at a 3.4 percent pace in the July-September period. The economy grew 2.9 percent in 2018, the best performance since 2015 and better than the 2.2 percent logged in 2017. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.3 percent rate in the fourth quarter. The release of the fourth-quarter GDP report was delayed by a 35-day partial shutdown of the government that ended on Jan. 25, which affected the collection and processing of economic data. ---Reuters

。Statements from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are weighing on Chinese investor sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite falling 0.4% during the session. He said it was too early to predict an outcome in trade talks and the U.S. will need to maintain the threat of tariffs on Chinese goods for years, even if Washington and Beijing strike a deal. China's manufacturing PMI for February also fell to 49.2, highlighting another contraction and deepening cracks in the country's economy. ---Seeking Alpha

。CNBC report overnight that Tesla (TSLA) is setting up about $2B in loans from Chinese banks to build its Shanghai factory.Then there's Baird, which puts Tesla on its "Fresh Pick" list with an Outperform rating. TSLA -0.33%. ---Seeking Alpha

。BTIG analyst Mark Palmer writes that Square's (SQ) higher-than-expected spending and weaker-than-expected Q1 and FY2019 outlook leads him to reiterate his sell rating on the stock. The high end of Square's Q1 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $47M-$51M trails BTIG's estimate of $73.0M and consensus estimate of $70.4M.  SQ -3.43%---Seeking Alpha

JD.com (JD): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 beats by $0.12; GAAP EPS of -$0.48 misses by $0.32. Revenue of $19.6B (+22% Y/Y) beats by $210M. JD +6.31%


。由于贸易谈判不稳，朝鲜峰会崩溃以及印度和巴基斯坦之间紧张局势升级，华尔街指数温和下跌。---Wall Street Breakfast

。市场是彻头彻尾的看涨。鉴于自12月24日低点以来的看涨趋势，几乎没有理由争论这一点。当然，鉴于美联储从收紧货币政策转向悄悄地将“汤碗”重新放回台面，这并不奇怪。但是，这一反弹发生在欧洲刚刚报告的第四季度盈利增长率为-1％的年度化时期，这是自2016年第二季度以来的最低点，美国即将陷入盈利衰退的边缘以及经济数据的下降。这看来有点不太正常。 --- Zero Hedge

。继7月至9月期间增长3.4％后，第四季度国内生产总值年率增长2.6％。 2018年经济增长2.9％，是自2015年以来的最佳表现，优于2017年的2.2％。路透社调查的经济学家预测第四季度GDP以2.3％的速度增长。第四季度国内生产总值报告的发布推迟了，政府于1月25日结束的35天部分停工，这影响了经济数据的收集和处理。 ---路透社

。美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱希特（Robert Lighthizer）的声明打击了中国投资者情绪，上证综合指数在下跌0.4％。他表示现在预测贸易谈判的结果还为时过早，即使华盛顿和北京达成协议，美国也需要多年来维持中国商品关税的威胁。中国2月制造业采购经理人指数也跌至49.2，突显出该国经济出现再次萎缩和深化裂痕。 ---Seeking Alpha

。CNBC隔夜报道，特斯拉（TSLA）正在设立大约20亿美元的中资银行贷款，以建立其上海工厂。Baird将特斯拉列入其“新鲜选择”名单，并冠以优于大市评级。TSLA -0.33% ---Seeking Alpha

。BTIG分析师Mark Palmer写道，Square的（SQ）高于预期的支出以及弱于预期的第一季度和2019财年的前景使他重申对该股的卖出评级。 Square的第一季度调整后的EBITDA指引为4700万美元至5100万美元，低于BTIG估计的7300万美元和市场预期的7040万美元。 SQ -3.43% ---Seeking Alpha

。京东（JD）：第四季度非GAAP每股盈利0.07美元，好于预期0.12美元; GAAP每股收益为-0.48美元，错过0.32美元。营业额为196亿美元（同比增长22％），超过2.1亿美元。 JD +6.31％---Seeking Alpha

Stock Market's 3 Concerns Today 今天股市的3个担忧

1。The U.S. is working for a trade pact with China with "significant structural changes" to the economic model of the world's second-largest economy as well as provisions to enforce the agreement, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in testimony to the House Ways and Means committee. It's too early to tell if China will agree to the U.S. demands, Lighthizer said, even as President Donald Trump plans to invite Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a signing summit to finalize a potential agreement. “This administration is pressing for significant structural changes that would allow for a more level playing field -- especially when it comes to issues of intellectual property rights and technology transfers,” Lighthizer said. ---Seeking Alpha

2。Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told senators on Tuesday that the Fed won’t strangle the economy with higher interest rates, but some economists clearly don’t believe him. They seem to think the Fed will quickly run out of “patience” and throw the economy into recession sometime in the next two years. Business economists aren’t buying it. The economic policy survey released by the National Association of Business Economists revealed that three-quarters of respondents expect a recession to begin by the end of 2021, with 42% penciling in a downturn in 2020.Those same economists would no doubt tell you that expansions don’t die of old age. Something kills them. And that something is the Fed, which historically has ignored a reliable leading indicator of recession — an inverted yield curve — and continued to raise the benchmark rate even as long-term rates rolled over. ---Market Watch

3。President Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen is poised to deliver an explosive testimony before Congress on Wednesday. Trump’s former fixer, who once said he would take a bullet for the president, is set to say he is ashamed of his “misplaced loyalty ” to Trump.In his testimony to the House Oversight Committee, he is also expected to include a series of bombshell allegations about the presidential campaign. ---CNBC

1。美国贸易代表Robert Lighthizer在向众议院Ways and Means委员会作证时表示，美国正在尝试与中国达成贸易协定，对世界第二大经济体的经济模式进行“重大结构性变革”以及执行协议的条款。Lighthizer表示，现在判断中国是否同意美国的要求还为时过早，即使总统唐纳德特朗普计划邀请中国领导人习近平参加签署峰会以达成潜在协议。Lighthizer说“本届政府迫切要求（中国）进行重大的结构性改革，以便提供更公平的竞争环境 - 特别是涉及知识产权和技术转让问题时”。 ---Seeking Alpha

2。美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔周二告诉参议员，美联储不会以更高的利率扼杀经济，但一些经济学家显然不相信他。 他们似乎认为美联储将很快摆脱“耐心”，并在未来两年内将经济陷入衰退。 商业经济学家不会相信。 全国商业经济学家协会发布的经济政策调查显示，四分之三的受访者预计到2021年底将开始出现经济衰退，42％相信到2020年将有经济衰退。同样的经济学家无疑会告诉你扩张不会老死而是有东西扼杀他们。 美联储在历史上忽略了一个可靠的衰退领先指标 - 收益率曲线倒转 - 并且即使在长期利率下跌的情况下仍继续提高基准利率。---Market Watch

3。唐纳德特朗普总统的前私人律师迈克尔科恩准备在周三向国会提交爆炸性证词。特朗普的前任修理者，曾经说他会为总统接受一颗子弹，他会说他对特朗普的“错误忠诚”感到羞耻。在他向众议院监督委员会作证时，他还预计将包括一系列关于总统竞选的重磅炸弹指控。---CNBC

Morning Market News Digest 早盘市场新闻摘要

。Pacific Time 7:07AM : Dow -76, S&P 500 -8.44， Nasdaq -38, Russell 2000 -2.90. WTI crude oil +2%，Gold -0.24%， US dollar index unchanged.

。Oversea markets: Shanghai +0.42%, Japan+0.50%, Hong Kong-0.05%, Germany -0.19%, UK -0.57%, France -0.05%.

。Weak sectors: SMH, GDX, SLV, FXI, EWG, FDN, XLY Strong sectors: XRT

。Europe alongside US equity futures pressured by disappointing corporate earnings and a dramatic escalation in India-Pakistan hostilities after Pakistan reportedly shot down two Indian fighter jets even as traders brace for a barrage of news including the latest Trump-Kim summit, the Congressional testimony by Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen, and the second day of Powell's testimony on the hill this time before Maxine Waters and AOC. Treasuries yields dropped, as did the dollar. ---Zero Hedge

。The bull market, already the longest on record, is about to turn 10 years old and could run at least another year. The S&P 500 is up 313 percent since the closing low 10 years ago on March 9, 2009.
Strategists said if a trade deal comes through with China and economic weakness proves temporary, earnings could be revised higher and the market could continue to climb. ---CNBC

。Crude oil futures rose 1.3% to $56.24/bbl overnight following a decline in U.S. crude inventories and as OPEC seemed to stick to its supply cuts despite pressure from President Trump. "We're taking it easy," Saudi Energy Minister Khalid said at an OPEC symposium in Riyadh. The group is taking a "very slow and measured approach. Just as the second half last year proved, we are interested in market stability first and foremost."  USO +1.55%---Seeking Alpha

。U.S. home improvement chain Lowe’s (LOW)beat Wall Street earnings forecasts on Wednesday, but reported disappointing sales growth as it predicted more weakness in Canada following the closure of dozens of unprofitable stores. LOW +2%---Reuters

。Best Buy Co. lent a spark to what had been a gloomy earnings season by delivering holiday sales that outpaced projections and a full-year profit outlook that topped analysts’ estimates. BBY +14.94% ---Bloomberg

。Nio (NIO) is up 2.0% in premarket trading to $9.96.The vibrant rally in Nio sparked by the company's appearance on 60 Minutes comes ahead of a key date for insiders. The IPO lockup expiration for Nio is March 11, according to Nasdaq data.  NIO +0.82%---Seeking Alpha

太平洋时间早上7:07：道琼斯-76，标准普尔500 -8.44，纳斯达克-38，罗素2000-2.90。 WTI原油+ 2％，黄金-0.24％，美元指数不变。

。海外市场：上海+ 0.42％，日本+ 0.50％，香港0.05％，德国-0.19％，英国-0.57％，法国-0.05％。

。弱势行业：SMH，GDX，SLV，FXI，EWG，FDN，XLY 强势行业：XRT

。由于企业盈利令人失望以及巴基斯坦据称击落了两架印度战斗机导致印度 - 巴基斯坦敌对行动急剧升级，因此欧洲股市下挫。 今天炒家将面多一系列的新闻包括最新的特朗普 - 金正恩峰会，特朗普前律师迈克尔科恩的国会证词，以及联储主席鲍威尔在国会山庄第二天作证而这次是在Maxine Waters和AOC之前。国债收益率下跌，美元也是如此。--- Zero Hedge

。牛市即将年满十年已经是有史以来最长的牛市，并且至少还可以运行多一年。标准普尔500指数自2009年3月9日10年前的收盘低点以来上涨了313％。策略师表示，如果与中国达成贸易协议，经济疲软证明是暂时性的，那么盈利可能会更高，市场可能继续攀升。 --- CNBC

。在美国原油库存减少以及尽管特朗普总统施加压力下石油输出国组织似乎仍坚持减产，原油期货价格隔夜上涨1.3％至56.24美元/桶。沙特能源部长哈立德在利雅得举行的石油输出国组织研讨会上说：“我们正在慢慢处理。”该集团正采取“非常缓慢和谨慎的方法。正如去年下半年证明的那样，我们首先对市场稳定感兴趣。” ---Seeking Alpha

。美国家居装修连锁店Lowe's（LOW）周三报出高于华尔街盈利预测，但销售增长报告令人失望，它预计在数十家无利可图的商店关闭后加拿大市场将会更疲软.LOW +2% ---路透社

。百思买（Best Buy Co.）通过提供超过预期的假日销售以及超出分析师预期的全年盈利前景，为陷入困境的盈利季节带来了火花。BBY +14.94%  ---彭博

。Nio（NIO）在盘前交易中上涨2.0％至9.96美元。在内部人士的关键日期之前，Nio在60分钟节目播出后引发充满活力的反弹。根据纳斯达克的数据，Nio的IPO锁定到期日为3月11日。NIO +0.82% ---Seeking Alpha

An ETF For Market Correction 一只参与市场调整的ETF

Major market indexes reversed to close at their lows yesterday in the face of bullish US-China trade talk news. This is important because the bench market index S&P 500 failed to break above last year's triple top levels. These levels are 2800, 2815 and 2817. US stock is likely to start a downside correction. The seriousness is still to be seen since the next support level for the S&P 500 is the 200 day moving average support at 2748 and is not too far away. A 50 S&P 500 points drop from here is approximately 500 Dow points. However ,if this level is broken, S&P 500 may have a bigger drop to 2631. A better index to play for the down side is Russell 2000 using the bear ETF TZA. TZA is now trading at 9.25.

The Russell 2000 failed to break it's 200 day moving average at 1588 yesterday after a huge 26.5% rally since December low. It is due for a rest. Since it rallied the most among market indexes, it likely will fall the most. TZA has formed a bullish Morning Star pattern. CCI has turned and gave an initial buy signal. Upside target is 10.19 initially, and may to up to 12.28 if market correction is getting serious.

面对利好的美中贸易谈判消息，昨日主要市场指数却反转而在低位收市。这很重要，因为基准市场指数标准普尔500指数未能突破去年的三重顶水平。这些水平分别为2800, 2815和2817.美国股市可能要开始下行修正。由于标准普尔500指数的下一个支撑位是200天移动平均线2748水平并且距离不太远，因此调整的严重性仍然有待观望。标准普尔500指数从现在水平下跌到2748约为50点，约相等于500点道琼斯指数。然而，如果这个水平被跌穿，标准普尔500指数可能下跌至2631。更好参与下跌的渠道是罗素2000三倍看跌ETF TZA。 TZA目前的交易价格为9.25。

自从12月份低点大升26.6%后，罗素2000昨天未能突破其200天移动平均线1588。它应该要休息一下。由于它在市场指数中涨幅最大，因此跌幅也将会最大。 TZA形成了看涨的晨星模式。 CCI已转向并发出初步买入信号。上行目标最初为10.19，如果市场调整变得严重，可能会达到12.28。

Morning Market News Digest 早盘市场新闻摘要

。Pacific Time 7:21AM : Dow -41, S&P 500 ＋2.29， Nasdaq ＋7.32, Russell 2000 -0.32. WTI crude oil +0.36%，Gold -0.25%， US dollar index ＋0.02%.

。Oversea markets: Shanghai －0.67%, Japan-0.37%, Hong Kong-0.65%, Germany +0.41%, UK -0.25%, France +0.17%.

。December Housing Starts: -11.2% to 1.078M vs. 1.260M expected, 1.214M prior (revised from 1.256M). Building permits 1.326M vs. 1.290M expected and 1.322M prior (revised from 1.328M). ---Seeking Alpha

。February Consumer Confidence: 131.4 vs. 125.0 consensus; 120.2 prior in January.

。Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify today before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington, presenting his semi-annual monetary policy report. He'll likely be quizzed on the economy, interest rates and the Fed balance sheet, after Powell adopted a more cautious stance toward rate hikes last month. "The markets have been fully liking what they've heard lately, and I think it’s going to listen to make sure no new news comes out," said Matt Toms of Voya Investment Management. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Theresa May was considering a plan to delay Brexit and stop the U.K. from leaving the EU without a deal. The U.K.'s main opposition Labour Party also said it would support holding a second Brexit referendum. Any plan for a future vote would require Britain to formally request the EU extend Brexit negotiations beyond March 29. ---Bloomberg

。U.S. healthcare shares may face some turbulence as leaders from the largest pharmaceutical companies get grilled on Capitol Hill today over the high cost of prescription drugs. The congressional hearing, called "Drug Pricing in America: A Prescription for Change, Part II," is reminiscent of previous encounters with businesses that proved to be watershed moments, leading to massive reforms on Wall Street, the health insurance industry and Big Tobacco. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) ends its partnership to share its 5G modem chips with Tsinghua Unigroup unit Unisoc, China's second largest chipmaker. Intel claims the decision was recent and mutual. Nikkei Asian Review sources say Intel didn't want the deal to create tension with the U.S. government. INTC ＋0.26%---Seeking Alpha

。Home Depot (HD), the largest U.S. home improvement retailer  issued a disappointing full-year earnings forecast amid slowing momentum in the U.S. housing market. HD－2.4%--Reuters

。UBS double downgraded Caterpillar Inc （CAT) shares to “sell” as it expects downward earnings revisions. CAT－2.6%---Reuters

 。SEC has asked a judge to hold CEO Elon Musk in contempt for violating their deal. TSLA －1.55%---Bloomberg




。太平洋时间上午7:21：道琼斯-41，标准普尔500指数+2.29，纳斯达克+7.32，罗素2000 -0.32。 WTI原油+ 0.36％，黄金-0.25％，美元指数+ 0.02％。

。海外市场：上海-0.67％，日本-0.37％，香港-0.65％，德国+ 0.41％，英国-0.25％，法国+ 0.17％。
。12月新屋开工数：-11.2％至1.078M，预期为1.260M，之前为1.214M（从1.256M修正）。建筑许可证为1.326M，预期为1.290M，之前为1.322M（从1.328M修订）。 ---Seeking Alpha

。2月消费者信心指数：131.4对125.0的预期; 一月份为120.2。

。美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔定于今天在华盛顿参议院银行委员会作证，提交半年度货币政策报告。 在鲍威尔上个月对加息采取更谨慎的立场后，他可能会被查问他对对经济，利率和美联储资产负债表的意见。Voya投资管理公司的Matt Toms说 “市场一直非常喜欢他们最近听到的内容，我认为它会听取确保没有新消息传出来”。

。特蕾莎梅正在考虑推迟英国脱欧的计划，并阻止英国在未达成协议的情况下离开欧盟。英国的主要反对党工党也表示将支持举行第二次英国退欧公投。任何未来投票的计划都要求英国正式要求欧盟在3月29日之后延长英国脱欧谈判。---彭博社

。美国医疗保健股可能面临一些动荡，因为最大的制药公司的领导人今天在国会山因处方药的高成本而被烧烤。国会听证会，称为“美国的药品定价：变革的处方，第二部分”，让人想起之前与业务相遇的事件，这些业务被证明是分水岭的时刻，导致华尔街，健康保险业和大烟草公司进行大规模改革。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。英特尔（INTC）与中国第二大芯片制造商清华联合电子有限公司Unisoc结束合作共享其5G调制解调器芯片。日经亚洲评论的消息称英特尔声称该决定是最近的并且是相互的，英特尔不希望这笔交易与美国政府制造紧张关系。INTC ＋0.26% ---Seeking Alpha

。Home Depot （HD）在美国房地产市场放缓的情况下，该公司发布令人失望的全年盈利预测。HD－2.4% ---路透社

。瑞银（UBS）将Caterpillar （CAT）的股票评级下调至“卖出”因为它预计下调盈利预期。CAT－2.6% ---路透社

。 美国证券交易委员会要求法官判决TSLA首席执行官埃隆马斯克蔑视协议罪。TSLA －1.55% ---彭博

Will Stock Market Reverse Today? 今天股市会反转吗？

Donald Trump claimed trade talk is going very well and Tariff hike deadline will be extended. This is the best news for the US-China trade talk and an agreement is pretty much a done deal. How the market react to the news today is critical for whether the rally can continue. After prolong market bounce ， it is normal for investors to sell on good news, so beware. Here are some evidence that the market may reverse:

1. Indexes are still facing resistances and they are S&P 500 2815-1817, Dow 26278, Nasdaq 7600 and russell 2000 1600.

2. Now the good news from trade talk is out investors may start to worry about Brexit and European trade talk, global economic slow down and Q1 corporate earning slow down.

3. Donald Trump said crude oil price is too high this morning and triggered a sell off in oil price. WTI oil is down 3.35%.

4. Volatility ETF VXXB has been down 2 months in a row which indicates investor sentiment optimism is at extreme level. VXXB has recovered most of this morning's losses.




唐纳德特朗普宣称贸易谈判进展顺利，加关税期限将延长。 这是美中贸易谈判的最佳消息，协议几乎已经是囊中之物。 市场对今日新闻的反应对于涨势是否能够持续至关重要。经长时间的反弹后的股市在好消息出来后被抛售是股市的惯性， 所以要提防。 以下是市场可能逆转的一些迹象：

1.指数仍然面临阻力，它们是标准普尔500指数2815-1817，道琼斯26278，纳斯达克7600和罗素2000 1600。

2.贸易谈判的好消息出来后，投资者可能开始担心英国脱欧和美欧贸易谈判，全球经济放缓和第一季度企业盈利放缓。

3.唐纳德特朗普说原油价格太高，导致今天油价暴跌。 WTI原油下跌3.35％。

4.波动性指数ETF VXXB连续两个月下跌，表明投资者乐观情绪处于极端水平可能随时反转。 VXXB已经收复了今天上午大部份的损失。

Morning Market News Digest 早盘市场新闻摘要

。Pacific Time 7:26AM : Dow ＋145, S&P 500 ＋14， Nasdaq ＋60, Russell 2000 +8. WTI crude oil -1.85%，Gold +0.04%， US dollar index －0.07%.

。Oversea markets: Shanghai ＋5.6%, Japan+0.48%, Hong Kong+0.50%, Germany +0.51%, UK +0.08%, France +0.29%.

。President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would delay an increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled for later this week thanks to progress in trade talks and said if progress continued, he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would seal a deal. The president said in a tweet that progress had been made on a host of divisive areas including intellectual property protection, technology transfers, agriculture, services and currency. ---Reuters

。U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May once again postponed a final vote on her Brexit divorce agreement, raising the stakes in a battle with members of her own cabinet who are fighting to avert a no-deal exit. The prime minister set a new deadline of March 12 -- just 17 days before Brexit day -- for parliament to vote on the accord she’s still trying to renegotiate. The move risks making those who are seeking to avoid a catastrophic no-deal departure even more determined to defeat her. They’ll have a chance to do that on Wednesday, when they’ll try to force her to delay exit day in order to avoid the economic damage of crashing out. Meanwhile, it emerged on Sunday that European Union officials are also working on a new plan that could help get the deal over the line at the last minute. ---Bloomberg

。Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson recently claimed that the US is also about to enter an earnings recession, ironically after one of the strongest years for corporate profits on record, the picture of American companies is not much better. Not only is an above average number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q1 2019 (of the 93 companies providing official guidance, 68 or 73%, have issued negative EPS guidance), but consensus EPS for Q1 is now deep in the red. According to Factset, the average Wall Street forecast now projects Q1 earnings per share to decline by 2.7% Y/Y, worse than a consensus -0.8% forecast drop three weeks ago, and starkly lower than the +3% EPS growth expected for Q1 at the start of the year.

。Friday’s finish, for one, capped the best start to a year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,  and the S&P 500 index SPX, since 1987, according to Dow Jones Market Data, measuring the first 36 trading sessions for those indexes at the beginning of a calendar year. Over that period, the Dow has rallied 11.6%, and the S&P 500 has risen 11.4%. Put another way, the Dow has registered eight consecutive weekly gains in 2019, which it hasn’t done since an interrupted rally to start 1964, when it logged 11 weekly advances. Still, anxiety about the health of the U.S. economy and those outside of the U.S. lingers, even if markets appear to have shaken off a late-2018 downturn that culminated in the worst-ever Christmas Eve decline to stage a stunning resurgence. One sign of complacency, the CBOE Volatility Index VIX（ -6.57% ）known as Wall Street’s “fear index,” has fallen for nine straight weeks to 13.51, representing its longest weekly skid on record. A reading of 19.5 representing its historical average. ---Market Watch

。Warren Buffett says he isn't buying more Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at current levels, but would if it became "cheaper." ---CNBC

。General Electric (GE) has agreed to sell its BioPharma business to Danaher (DHR) for $21.4B, including $21B in cash plus the assumption of certain pension liabilities. The transaction should close in Q4. ---Seeking Alpha


。太平洋时间上午7:26：道琼斯指数+145，标准普尔500指数+14，纳斯达克指数+60，罗素2000 +8。 WTI原油-1.85％，黄金+ 0.04％，美元指数-0.07％。

。海外市场：上海+ 5.6％，日本+ 0.48％，香港+ 0.50％，德国+ 0.51％，英国+ 0.08％，法国+ 0.29％。

。唐纳德特朗普总统周日表示，由于贸易谈判取得进展，他将推迟本周晚些时候美国对中国商品征收关税，并表示如果继续取得进展，他和中国国家主席习近平将达成协议。总统在推文中表示，在许多分裂领域取得了进展，包括知识产权保护，技术转让，农业，服务和货币。 ---路透社

。英国首相特蕾莎·梅再次推迟对她的脱欧协议进行最终投票，提高与她内阁成员的斗争中的赌注，这些人正在努力避免无协议脱欧。总理设定了3月12日的新截止日期 - 在英国脱欧日前仅17天 - 议会就她仍在努力重新谈判的协议进行投票。此举有可能使那些寻求避免灾难性无协议脱欧的人更加坚决要打败她。他们将有机会在星期三这样做，当他们试图迫使她延迟脱欧日期，以避免崩溃造成的经济损失。与此同时，周日出现了欧盟官员正在制定一项新计划，该计划可能有助于在最后一分钟达成协议。 ---彭博

。摩根士丹利的迈克威尔逊最近声称美国即将进入盈利衰退，具有讽刺意味的是，在列入有史以来企业利润最强劲的年份之后，美国公司的情况并没有好多少。 2019年第一季度（93家公司提供官方指引，68或73％，已发布负面每股收益指引）不仅高于平均数量的公司发布负面每股盈利指引，而且第一季度的每股盈利预测现已深陷其中。根据Factset的数据，华尔街的平均预测目前预计第一季度每股收益将同比下降2.7％，低于三周前下降0.8％的预测，并且低于在年初预期的第三季度每股收益增长3％。

。根据道琼斯市场数据显示，周五收盘道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数（SPX）创下自1987年以来一年的最佳开局（衡量这些指数的前36个交易日）。在此期间，道琼斯指数上涨了11.6％，标准普尔500指数上涨了11.4％。另一方面，道琼斯指数在2019年已经连续八周上涨，为止自1964年上涨11周以来之最长时间上涨。尽管市场似乎已经摆脱了2018年末的大跌及有史以来最大圣诞节前夕的下跌而开始了令人惊讶的大幅反弹，但对美国经济和美国以外经济体的健康状况仍然存在焦虑。现在市场过度乐观的一个迹象是CBOE波动指数VIX，被称为华尔街“恐惧指数”（-6.57％）已经连续九周下跌至13.51，这是其有史以来最长的周数下跌。VIX的历史平均值为19.5。 ---Market Watch

。沃伦巴菲特表示他不会以目前的水平购买更多的苹果（AAPL），如果它变得“更便宜”的话才考虑。---CNBC

。通用电气（GE）已同意以21.4亿美元的价格将其BioPharma业务出售给丹纳赫（DHR），其中包括21亿美元的现金加上某些养老金负债。 该交易应在第四季度完成。 ---Seeking Alpha

Morning Market News Digest 早盘市场新闻摘要

。Pacific Time 7:47AM : Dow ＋136, S&P 500 ＋11.62， Nasdaq ＋44, Russell 2000 +8.80. WTI crude oil +0.72%，Gold +0.37%， US dollar index －0.09%.

。Oversea markets: Shanghai ＋1.91%, Japan-0.18%, Hong Kong+0.65%, Germany +0.23%, UK +0.40%, France +0.37%.

President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet China’s top trade negotiator this afternoon during the current round of U.S.-China negotiations in an attempt to forge a preliminary agreement on trade ahead of the March 1 deadline for the imposition of new tariffs. That the meeting is going ahead at all is viewed as a good sign for progress, bolstered by China’s proposal to purchase $30 billion more in U.S. agricultural products. Still, the economic damage from the standoff is mounting, putting further pressure on both sides to come to a deal. ---Bloomberg

European Union ministers began debating on Friday when to start trade negotiations with the United States, aware that U.S. President Donald Trump may impose punitive tariffs on EU car imports if they wait too long. The European Commission has asked the EU’s 28 countries to approve two negotiating mandates so that formal talks can begin. ---Reuters

Talks on Brexit in Brussels have unsurprisingly made little progress, with Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief negotiator, saying that he does not rule out a possible delay to the March 29 exit date. While that might help forge a political agreement, signs are mounting that significant damage has already been inflicted to the U.K. economy as companies struggle to prepare for a messy Brexit. Currency analysts are looking through the possible lift to the pound from any deal, saying that the damage to  growth already means any sterling rally may be short lived.

Morgan Stanley upgrades Intel to overweight from equal weight and hikes its price target on the stock to $64 per share from $55.“We think that Intel can rerate higher around a more financially oriented CEO,” analyst Joseph Moore says. ---CNBC

The food sector is being rocked by the huge loss posted by Kraft Heinz (KHC) after it wrote down the value of its Oscar Meyer and Kraft brands by $15B and slashed its dividend. A SEC probe was also disclosed by the company to add to the negative sentiment. KHC is down 27.75. Shares of General Mills (GIS) are down 3.92% premarket and Campbell Soup (CPB) is 3.45% lower. J.M Smucker (SJM) is off 2.15% and Kellogg (K) is 2.22% lower. Hershey (HSY) and Mondelez International (MDLZ) are both down 1.80%.

。太平洋时间上午7:47：道琼斯指数136，标准普尔500指数+11.62，纳斯达克指数+44，罗素2000指数+8.80。 WTI原油+ 0.72％，黄金+ 0.37％，美元指数-0.09％。

。海外市场：上海+ 1.91％，日本-0.18％，香港+ 0.65％，德国+ 0.23％，英国+ 0.40％，法国+ 0.37％。

。唐纳德特朗普总统定于今天下午在本次美中谈判期间会见中国最高贸易谈判代表，以便在3月1日实施新关税的最后期限之前就贸易达成初步协议。由于中国建议购买300亿美元的美国农产品，因此会议正在进行中被视为取得进展的良好迹象。尽管如此，对峙造成的经济损失正在加剧，双方面临进一步的达成协议压力。 ---彭博

。欧盟各国部长周五开始辩论何时开始与美国进行贸易谈判，并意识到如果等待太久美国总统唐纳德特朗普可能会对欧盟汽车进口征收惩罚性关税。欧盟委员会要求欧盟28个国家批准两项谈判授权，以便开始正式谈判。 ---路透社

。欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶（Michel Barnier）表示，他不排除可能延迟到3月29日的退出日期，因此在布鲁塞尔举行的脱欧谈判毫不奇怪地取得了一些进展。 虽然这可能有助于达成一项政治协议，但随着企业为一场凌乱的英国脱欧做准备，英国经济已经面临重大损失的迹象越来越大。 货币分析师正在考虑从任何交易可能升至英镑，并表示对增长的损害已经意味着任何英镑反弹可能是短暂的。 ---彭博

。摩根士丹利将英特尔从同等权重升级至超重，并将其股价目标从55美元上调至每股64美元。分析师约瑟夫摩尔说“我们认为英特尔可以围绕更具财务导向性的首席执行官进行更高的评估，”。 --- CNBC

。Kraft Heinz（KHC）在将其Oscar Meyer和Kraft品牌的价值降低15亿美元并大幅削减股息后，食品行业受到巨大损失的影响。该公司还披露了SEC的调查更增加负面情绪。KHC下跌27.75。General Mills（GIS）的股票下跌3.92％，Campbell Soup（CPB）下跌3.45％。 J.M Smucker（SJM）下跌2.15％，Kellogg（K）下跌2.22％。好时（HSY）和蒙德莱兹国际（MDLZ）均下跌1.80％。 ---Seeking Alpha

Market Selloff Trigger Will Likely Be The Actual Trade Agreement 触发市场抛售可能是实际的贸易协议

Major market indexes gone through a few reiterations today:opened down, bounced, dropped to day's lows and bounced again before the close but still closed moderately down. US-China trade talk news is good today but worse than expected Philadelphia Fed report and durable good report dragged market down. The fact that good news from the important US-China trade talk did not help market indicates good news is mostly reflected after an 18% surge in the S&P 500 index since December lows of last year. Since there is no actual agreement signed on the trade talk yet, some investors are still hopeful that better than expected agreement will be signed. This hope fueled some buying today. However, I believe when the actual trade agreement is out, sell on news will happen.

Technically, major market indexes are facing formidable resistances. These resistances are Dow 26000, S&P 500 2800, Nasdaq 7500 and Russell 2000 1588. Some downward consolidation at these high levels seem very reasonable. Down side supports are Dow 25065, S&P 500 2746,Nasdaq 7300 and Russell 2000 1520 levels. More serious downside will happen if these supports are broken. Supports for more serious downside would be Dow 24312, S&P 500 2622, Nasdaq 7015 and Russell 2000 1447 levels.

I do think that more serious correction is likely and the trigger will be when the actual trade talk agreement is announced.

Market is now on schedule with the February 19 trend reversal. The next two market turning point days are February 28 and March 5.

今天主要市场指数经历了几度涨跌 ：开盘下跌，反弹，盘中跌至日内低点并在收盘前再次反弹，但仍然以温和下跌收盘。美中贸易谈判消息是今天的利好，但比预期更糟糕的费城联储的报告和耐用品订单报告拖累市场下跌。在自去年12月低点以来标准普尔500指数飙升18％之后，重要的美中贸易谈判的好消息无助于市场，表明贸易谈判的好消息已经大部分被反映过。由于还没签署实际协议，一些投资者仍然希望签署的协议会好于预期。这种希望导致今天买盘仍然踊跃。但是，我相信当实际的贸易协议出来时，美股就会被抛售。

从技术上讲，主要市场指数面临强大阻力。这些阻力位是道指26000，标准普尔500 2800，纳斯达克7500和罗素2000 1588。在这些高水平水平市场向下整合应该是非常合理的。下面的支撑位为道指25065，标准普尔500 2746，纳斯达克7300和罗素2000 1520水平。如果这些支持被击破，更严重的下行将会发生。更严重的下行支撑将是道指24312，标准普尔500 2622，纳斯达克7015和罗素2000 1447水平。

我认为进行更严重的修正的可能性大，实际的贸易谈判协议公布时或会是下行的触发时间。

市场现在正进行2月19日的开始的趋势反转，而下两个市场转折日是2月28日和3月5日。

Morning Market News Digest 早盘市场新闻摘要

。Pacific Time 7:47AM : Dow -100, S&P 500 -12， Nasdaq -46, Russell 2000 -6. WTI crude oil -0.14%，Gold -0.96%， US dollar index unchanged.

。Oversea markets: Shanghai -0.34%, Japan+0.15%, Hong Kong+0.42%, Germany +0.05%, UK -1.03%, France -0.96%.

。The United States and China have started to outline commitments in principle on the stickiest issues in their trade dispute, marking the most significant progress yet toward ending a seven-month trade war, according to sources familiar with the negotiations. ---Reuters

。The Philadelphia Federal Reserve business index fell to negative 4.1 in February from 17 in January. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a print of 14. Durable goods orders for December, meanwhile, rose 1.2 percent, the Commerce Department said. The department also said core capital goods orders fell 0.7 percent while economists polled by Reuters expected a gain of 0.2 percent.
---CNBC

。Appearing on CNBC, St. Louis Fed president , the Fed's leading dove surprises no one, declaring that the end is near for the rate hike cycle and balance sheet reduction.---  Seeking Alpha

。U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday called on U.S. telecommunications companies to boost their work to build faster 5G wireless communications networks, saying they were lagging and at risk of being left behind other countries’ efforts. 5G stocks： nok, qcom, swks, aapl, ssnlf, nflx, t, vz, tmus ---Reuters

。The American Petroleum Institute reportedly shows a build of 3.2M barrels of oil for the week ending Feb. 15, vs. a draw of nearly 1M barrels in the previous week. ---Seeking Alpha

。Apple, Goldman Sachs – Apple and Goldman plan to launch a credit card paired with new iPhone features in the next few weeks, according to The Wall Street Journal.---CNBC

。Nike – Nike shares are under pressure after Duke basketball player Zion Williamson was injured after his Nike shoe split during a game.
---CNBC



。太平洋时间早上7点47分：道指-100，标准普尔500 -12，纳斯达克-46，罗素2000 -6。 WTI原油-0.14％，黄金-0.96％，美元指数不变。

。海外市场：上海-0.34％，日本+ 0.15％，香港+ 0.42％，德国+ 0.05％，英国-1.03％，法国-0.96％。

。据熟悉谈判的消息人士透露，美国和中国已经开始在原则上就其贸易争端中最棘手的问题作出承诺，标志着在结束七个月的贸易战中取得的最重大进展。 ---Reuters

。2月份费城联邦储备银行业务指数从1月份的17降至负4.1。美国商务部表示12月份的耐用品订单将增加1.2％。该部门还表示，核心资本品订单下降0.7％，路透社调查的经济学家预计增长为0.2％。--- CNBC

。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁在CNBC宣布加息周期和资产负债表减少结束.---Seeking Alpha

。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周四呼吁美国电信公司加大力度建设速度更快的5G无线通信网络，并称这些网络滞后，有可能被其他国家的努力抛在后面. 5G 股票： nok, qcom, swks, aapl, ssnlf, nflx, t, vz, tmus--Reuters

。据报道，美国石油协会在截至2月15日的一周内显示增加320万桶石油，相比之前一周的增长接近100万桶。 ---Seeking Alpha

。据华尔街日报报道， 苹果（AAPL）和高盛（GS）计划在未来几周内推出信用卡和新的iPhone功能. AAPL －0.52%--- CNBC

。在杜克篮球运动员锡安威廉姆森在一场比赛中因耐克鞋子分开而受伤后，耐克公司（NKE） 股价受到压力。NKE －1.47%--- CNBC

Morning Market News Digest 早盘市场新闻摘要

。Pacific Time 7:55AM : Dow ＋17, S&P 500 +3.6， Nasdaq +24, Russell 2000 +3.6. WTI crude oil +0.43%，Gold +0.17%， US dollar index －0.02%.

。Oversea markets: Shanghai ＋0.20%, Japan+0.60%, Hong Kong+1.01%, Germany +0.76%, UK +0.73%, France +0.65%.

。The U.S. wants China to agree to keep the yuan stable as part of the demands being put forth in current trade talks, while Beijing wants Washington to respect its right to develop and become prosperous. President Trump said on Tuesday that the discussions were going well and suggested he was open to pushing off the deadline to complete negotiations, outlining March 1 was not a "magical" date. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Citing unnamed analysts, Chinese Communist Party-run newspaper Global Times says in an editorial that if "the US imposes more tariffs on Chinese products while China responds with fiercer countermeasures, it would be a catastrophic strike to global stock markets." U.S. President Donald Trump has frequently cited the American stock market's performance as a gauge of his success.
---CNBC

。Expectations are low as Theresa May heads back to Brussels today to find a way out of the Brexit impasse, despite clear statements from EU officials that they won't reopen the divorce deal. Even if she secures some kind of assurance over the temporary nature of the Irish backstop, it's not clear if that would placate Brexiteers in her own party who helped defeat her deal in parliament.
 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。It was a big reversal: Federal Reserve officials pivoted last month toward keeping interest rates on hold, and now minutes of their meeting may shed light on just how long. The Federal Open Market Committee pledged in its January statement to “be patient’’ on the timing of future rate “adjustments.” That backed away from the “some further gradual increases’’ it highlighted in December and left open whether the next move is up or down. Minutes of the Jan. 29-30 meeting are scheduled to be released at 2 p.m. in Washington. ---Bloomberg

。Reasons for gold's rise: Central banks have become fairly aggressive net buyers of gold. The Fed, which had been promising to tighten for years and now the tightening has stopped, to be replaced shortly with another, probably much bigger round of easing. This aligns the US with other major countries, which are already easing. Europe, now descending into what might be the death throes of its post-WWII single market plan, has one and only one chance to salvage it: Aggressive banking integration funded with extremely easy money.And China, after accounting for 60% of the world’s new credit in the past decade, has decided that that wasn’t enough, and is now creating new credit at an even faster rate. ---ZeroHedge

。Equities continue to trade “well” but the all-important test of 2798 is growing closer by the day.  2798 is important because the trend line connecting that point failed three times in Oct, Nov, and Dec.  It would also coincide nicely with my Elliott Wave “5 count” that would speak of an “ABC” correction.  Those are minor “cool offs” not substantial sell offs.  Here are the possible  market scenarios depending on the Fed minutes: If the Fed can convey a more dovish message than all these “neutral” comments Fed speakers have been delivering, then 2798 gets taken out and my Elliott Wave “5 count” will have to move up to 2900.  If its neutral and the market finally realizes there is no dovish pivot; then you will likely get the correction the charts are forewarning.  Again, the only question would be how severe.  A simple ABC correction to say 2700/2650 (2-4%), or a deep 10% correction to blast out the FOMO buyers.   No chance of a hawkish message so let’s not bother.

。海外市场：上海+ 0.20％，日本+ 0.60％，香港+ 1.01％，德国+ 0.76％，英国+ 0.73％，法国+ 0.65％。

。美国希望中国同意保持人民币稳定，作为当前贸易谈判要求的一部分，而北京希望华盛顿尊重其发展和繁荣的权利。特朗普总统周二表示，讨论进展顺利，并表示他愿意推迟完成谈判的最后期限，并称3月1日不是一个“神奇”的日期。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。中国共产党报纸“环球时报”援引未具名分析师的话说，如果“美国对中国产品征收更多关税，而中国采取更激烈的对策，那将对全球股市造成灾难性打击。”美国总统唐纳德特朗普经常将美国股市的表现作为衡量他成功的标准。--- CNBC

。尽管欧盟官员明确表示他们不会重启英国脱欧协议谈判，特蕾莎梅今天回到布鲁塞尔寻求摆脱英国退欧僵局的方法的期望很低。即使她对爱尔兰支持者的临时性质有某种保证，但目前尚不清楚这是否会在她自己的政党中能安抚Brexiteers，这有助于打败她在议会中达成的协议。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。联储1月29日至30日的会议纪要定于下午2点公布。美联储官员上个月转向维持利率不变    是一个巨大的逆转。 现在会议纪要可能会显示多长时间。联邦公开市场委员会在其1月份的声明中承诺“对未来利率调整时间”保持“耐心”。这背离了12月突出的“进一步逐步增加”的说法，但并没有显示下一步是上或下。  ---Bloomberg

。黄金上涨的原因：中央银行已成为相当积极的黄金净买家。美联储多年来一直承诺收紧货币政策，现在紧缩政策已经停止，很快就会被另一个可能更大的宽松政策取代。这使美国与其他已经放松的主要国家的步伐保持一致。欧洲现在正陷入二战后单一市场计划的死亡阵痛中，只有一次机会能挽救它：积极的银行业整合以极其宽松的资金资助。而在过去十年中中国占世界新的信贷的60％但这还不够，现在正以更快的速度创造新的信贷。 --- ZeroHedge

。股票继续交易“良好”，但2798的最重要测试日益接近。 2798是重要的，因为连接该点的趋势线在10月，11月和12月失败了三次。它也与我的Elliott Wave“5计数”很好地吻合，这将说明“ABC”校正。 那些是轻微的“冷静”并没有实质性的抛售。联储会议纪要可能带来的后果：如果美联储能够传达比美联储发言人提供的所有这些“中性”评论更温和的信息，那么2798将被向上突破，我的艾略特波浪“5计数”将不得不升至2900。如果信息是中立而市场意识到没有鸽派的偏向，股市可能会得到好好像图表预警一样的修正。唯一的问题是多严重。 一个简单的ABC修正会是2700/2650（2-4％），或10％的深度修正来打击FOMO (害怕失去机会）买家。联储没有机会发出鹰派信息，所以不用朝那里去想。---ZeroHedge

JKS Starts Another Leg Up JKS开始另一波升势

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd., (JKS 18.25 +2.25 14.07%) together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of photovoltaic products in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

。Chinese policy makers are starting approvals again for utility-scale, ground-mounted projects that receive subsidies, which were halted in June 2018, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association said on its Wechat account Monday, citing a meeting between the National Energy Administration and companies. As part of the renewed approvals, developers of these large projects, as well as those for industrial use, will have to bid for government aid, the association said. ---The Business Times

。JinkoSolar has a VGM Score of B. The company’s expected earnings growth for the current year is more than 100%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved by 93.5% over the past 30 days. The stock sports a Zacks Rank #1. ---Zacks

。Excellent Valuation： Forward PE 5.35, PEG 0.54, Price/Sales 0.18, Price/Book 0.55, Price/Cash 1.33.

。Short squeeze possibility：23.36% short on 30.78 million shares float.

。Technicals: Broke out and start of another leg up， CCI buy signal,  Support 17, Resistances 20, 22.

。Options： March 15 Call volumes are 2.95 times of Put volumes

晶科能源控股有限公司（Jinko Solar Holding Ltd （(JKS 18.25 +2.25 14.07%)）)及其子公司在中华人民共和国和国际上从事光伏产品的设计，开发，生产和营销。

。中国光伏产业协会周一在其微信账户上表示，中国政策制定者正在开始批准那些获得补贴的公用事业规模的地面项目，这些项目已于2018年6月停止，国家能源局和公司之间的会议也是如此。 该协会表示，作为重新批准的一部分，这些大型项目的开发商以及工业用途的开发商将不得不竞标政府援助。 ---The Business Times

。晶科能源的VGM评分为B。该公司今年的预期盈利增长率超过100％。 Zacks共识估计当前年度营业额在过去30天内改善了93.5％。 该股票具有Zacks排名＃1。---Zacks

。很好的估值：预期市盈率5.35，PEG 0.54，价格/销售0.18，价格/手册0.55，价格/现金1.33。

。空头挤压可能性：3038万流通股，空头23.36％。

。技术分析：突破阻力并开始另一波升势, CCI 买入信号。 支撑17，阻力20, 22。

。期权：3月15日到期看涨期权交易量是看跌期权交易量的2.95倍

Morning Market News Digest 早盘市场新闻摘要

。Pacific Time 7:35AM : Dow -40, S&P 500 -1.5, Nasdaq +4.3, Russell 2000 -1. WTI crude oil +0.65%，Gold +1.32%， US dollar index －0.19%.

。Oversea markets: Shanghai ＋0.05%, Japan+0.10%, Hong Kong -42%, Germany +0.04%, UK -0.49%, France -0.17%.

Talks between China and the U.S. toward a trade agreement restart in Washington today, with Vice Premier Liu He scheduled to meet U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Feb. 21-22. Steve Censky, the Department of Agriculture’s Deputy Secretary, said at an industry conference yesterday that talks are “picking up” ahead of the March 1 deadline for the imposition of new tariffs, despite few obvious signs of progress to date. ---Bloomberg

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda joined the rest of his central bank peers in making a hard-dove turn, saying on Tuesday the central bank was ready to ramp up stimulus if sharp yen rises hurt the economy and derail the path toward achieving its 2 percent inflation target. ---ZeroHedge

The long-standing March 29 deadline is fast approaching, with negotiators battling to clinch a deal for the  U.K.’s exit from the European Union. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that “we are in God’s hands” as an agreement continues to be elusive. The main sticking point is still the contentious Irish border backstop, with both sides working on a new legal text to try to find a breakthrough. Meanwhile, the path to a deal could be further complicated by the shifting political landscape in the U.K.  ---Bloomberg

Eleven members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 other nations are collectively trying to remove about 1.2 million barrels of daily production to bring the oil market in balance. OPEC compliance was 86 percent last month, while non-OPEC was just 25 percent. In most cases, the countries are using October 2018 as the starting point for their curbs. ---Bloomberg

Extending a global effort to bring tech giants into the tax net, New Zealand plans to update its laws so it can tax revenue earned by digital firms like Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN). The proposed digital services tax (DST) would tax multinational online companies at about 2 or 3 percent on the revenue they generate in New Zealand. A number of other countries including the U.K., Spain, Italy, France, Austria, Australia and India have enacted or already announced plans for a DST.

Walmart (WMT) reports comparable sales rose 4.2% in Q4 to top the consensus mark of +3.3%.Total revenue was up 3.1% to $140.5B on a constant currency basis, despite international sales falling 3.2% to $32.3B.---Seekingalpha

Teva Pharmaceutical expects its generic version of Mylan's (MYL) EpiPen to have about 25% share of the U.S. market by the end of 2019. The company is already selling its product for adults and plans to start supply of a junior version for young children in 3-4 months, CEO Kare Schultz declared. Mylan also has a generic version of its EpiPen, which is priced at around $300, similar to Teva's (TEVA) product.--- Wall Street Breakfast



。中美之间就贸易协议进行的谈判今天在华盛顿重启。刘鹤副总理定于2月21日至22日与美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱希泽和财政部长史蒂芬·姆努辛会面。农业部副部长史蒂夫·切克基（Steve Censky）昨日在一次行业会议上表示，尽管目前几乎没有明显的进展迹象，但在3月1日实施新关税的最后期限之前会谈正在“回升”。 ---Bloomberg.com

。日本央行行长黑田东彦（Haruhiko Kuroda）与其他中央银行同行进行了一次艰难的转变。周二表示如果日元大幅上涨损害经济并破坏实现2％通胀目标的道路，央行准备加大刺激力度。 --- ZeroHedge

。长期存在的3月29日截止日期即将来临，谈判代表正在努力争取英国退出欧盟的协议。委员会主席让 - 克洛德·容克说，“我们被掌握在上帝手中”，因为协议仍然难以实现。主要的关键点仍然是有争议的爱尔兰边境支持，双方正在制定新的法律文本，试图寻找突破。与此同时，由于英国布隆伯格政治格局的变化，妥协的道路可能会进一步复杂化。---Bloomberg

。石油输出国组织和其他10个国家的11个成员共同试图减低约120万桶的日产量，以使石油市场保持平衡。上个月石油输出国组织的遵守率为86％，而非石油输出国组织仅为25％。在大多数情况下，这些国家将2018年10月作为其限制的起点。 ---Bloombeg

。为扩大全球努力将科技巨头纳入税网，新西兰计划更新其法律，以便对谷歌（GOOG，GOOGL），Facebook（FB）和亚马逊（AMZN）等数字公司的收入征税。拟议的数字服务税（DST）将使跨国在线公司对其在新西兰产生的收入征收约2％或3％的税。包括英国，西班牙，意大利，法国，奥地利，澳大利亚和印度在内的许多其他国家已经制定或已经宣布了DST的计划。---Wall Street Breakfast

。沃尔玛（WMT）报告第四季度可比销售额增长4.2％，超过+ 3.3％的市场预期。尽管国际销售额下降3.2％至32.3亿美元，但按固定汇率计算，总收入增长3.1％至1.405亿美元。---Seeking Alpha

。Teva Pharmaceutical预计其仿制版Mylan（MYL）的EpiPen在2019年底前将占美国市场约25％的份额。首席执行官Kare Schultz宣称该公司已经在为成人销售其产品，并计划 3-4个月内开始为年幼儿童提供初级版本。Mylan还拥有EpiPen的仿制版，价格约为300美元，类似于Teva（TEVA）的产品.---Wall Street Breakfast

Has Stock reflected Trade Agreement？Time For Crypto Again？ 股市已反映贸易协议吗？再是投资加密货币的时候？

。Pacific Time 8:00 AM : Dow closed, S&P 500 closed, Nasdaq closed, Russell 2000 closed. WTI crude oil +0.77%，Gold +0.56%， US dollar index -0.13%.

。Oversea markets: Shanghai +2.68%, Japan+1.82%, Hong Kong+1.60%, Germany +0.07%, UK -0.11%, France +0.30%.

。Global growth is expected to slow in the coming months, but several "mitigating factors" could help Asian economies to hold up reasonably well, said Piyush Gupta, CEO of Singapore's DBS Group Holdings. Asia is still projected to grow at 5.5 percent to 6 percent this year, supported by looser monetary policies and possible fiscal stimulus in the region, Gupta said. ---CNBC

。The U.S. Commerce Department sent a report on Sunday to U.S. President Donald Trump that could unleash steep tariffs on imported cars and auto parts. ---Reuters

。Lance Roberts on US-China trade talk: (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4241712-bull-trap)

While there is nothing wrong with "hoping" for a positive outcome from "trade talks," the rush to "buy" equities has effectively "priced in" the best of all possible outcomes. This leaves investors vulnerable a whole host of possible disappointments:

1. Trade deal isn't reached as China refuses to give in to demands for economic reform.

2. Trade deal is made but the magnitude of concessions is disappointing.

3. Trade deal gets extended, again, with no real progress towards a "deal."

4. Trade deal made and tariffs are ended, but such is likely already priced into current asset prices.

5. Trade negotiations collapse. (Worst possible outcome.)

The point here is that there are few outcomes for the trade deal which are extremely optimistic which would support a further surge in assets prices. The most likely outcome is this simply a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type event, and if the news is bad, the resulting sell-off could be substantial.

Sentiment conditions on Wall Street are flashing short-term danger signs. That’s because the mood has shifted from the extreme pessimism that prevailed in late December to nearly as extreme optimism today. Some call current conditions a “slope of hope.”  According to Mark Hulbert's HNNSI index , in late December, this average was lower — at minus 72.2% — than at almost any other time since he began collecting data in 2000. Today, in contrast,  the HNNSI has risen to plus 73%. That’s higher than 90% of all comparable readings since 2000. ---Mark Hulbert

。The cryptocurrency markets have enjoyed a day of significant bullish action, with only four of the top 80 crypto assets by capitalization posting a 24-hour loss. ETH was the strongest performing leading market, comprising the only cryptocurrency in the top 25 by market cap to post a double-digit gain for the day. ---Bitcoin News

。First Public Pensions Pile Into Crypto :(https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-12/crypto-bulls-rejoice-first-public-pensions-invest-crypto)

Two pension plans in Fairfax County, Virginia are anchor investors in a new $40 million venture-capital fund, according to a statement from the company. Other investors include an insurance company, a university endowment and a private foundation, said Morgan Creek Digital founder Anthony Pompliano, who declined to provide further details. Many institutional investors, which crypto enthusiasts believe will be drawn to digital assets because of their volatility and potential out-sized gains, have been deterred by market manipulation and a lack of regulation. The Virginia pension funds join a handful of institutions to invest in the crypto world, including Yale University, the second-largest endowment in higher education that invested in a digital assets fund last year.

Morgan Creek Digital, which is an affiliate of the investment manager Morgan Creek Capital Management LLC, exceeded its original target of $25 million for the fund. Its pitch: all traditional assets will eventually be represented by digital tokens, while the influx of intellectual capital into digital assets will create positive returns. It also argues that cryptocurrencies are not correlated to traditional assets, giving investors unique exposures.

。太平洋时间早上8点：道指停市，标准普尔500指数停市，纳斯达克停市，罗素2000停市。 WTI原油+ 0.77％，黄金+ 0.56％，美元指数-0.13％。

。海外市场：上海+ 2.68％，日本+ 1.82％，香港+ 1.60％，德国+ 0.07％，英国-0.11％，法国+ 0.30％。

。新加坡星展集团控股有限公司首席执行官Piyush Gupta表示，预计未来几个月全球经济增长将放缓，但一些“缓解因素”可能有助于亚洲经济体保持良好的增长势头。古普塔表示，由于货币政策宽松以及该地区可能采取的财政刺激措施，亚洲经济预计今年仍将增长5.5％至6％。 --- CNBC

。美国商务部周日向美国总统唐纳德特朗普发送了一份报告，该报告可能导致对进口汽车和汽车零件征收高额关税。 ---Reuters

。Lance Roberts预期美中贸易谈判结果对股市的影响：（https://seekingalpha.com/article/4241712-bull-trap）

虽然“希望”通过“贸易谈判”取得积极成果并没有什么不妥，但急于“买入”股票已经有效地“反映”了所有可能结果中的最佳结果。这让投资者容易受到一系列可能的失望：

1.由于中国拒绝屈服于经济改革的要求，因此没有达成贸易协议。

2. 贸易协议达成，但让步幅度令人失望。

3.贸易谈判再次延长，没有真正取得“协议”的进展。

4.贸易协议达成和关税结束，但股市近期的涨幅可能已经定反映了这个结果。

5.贸易谈判破裂。 （最糟糕的结果。）

这里的重点是贸易协议的结果已经在股市反映了而不会导致股市进一步飙升。最可能的结果是这只是“买谣言，卖新闻”类型的事件。如果释坏消息，股市的抛售可能是巨大的。

。加密货币市场享受了一天的大涨幅。前80名加密资产中只有四只发布了24小时亏损。 ETH领先市场是表现最为强劲的。在市值排名前25位的加密货币中，是唯一当天获得两位数增长的货币。

。第一个养老基金进入加密货币投资：（https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-12/crypto-bulls-rejoice-first-public-pensions-invest-crypto）

根据该公司的一份声明，弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯县的两项养老金计划是新的4000万美元风险投资基金的主要投资者。 Morgan Creek Digital创始人Anthony Pompliano表示，其他投资者包括保险公司，大学捐赠基金和私人基金会，他拒绝提供进一步的细节。许多机构投资者，由于其波动性和潜在的超大收益而被数字资产所吸引。但之前他们一直被市场操纵和缺乏监管所阻止。弗吉尼亚养老基金加入少数机构进入投资加密世界，这些机构其中包括耶鲁大学，它是去年投资于数字资产基金的第二大高等教育基金。

Morgan Creek Digital是投资经理摩根溪资本管理有限责任公司的附属公司，超出了该基金2500万美元的原定目标。它的投资基调是：所有传统资产最终都将以数字代币为代表，而教育资本流入数字资产将带来正回报。它还认为加密货币与传统资产无关，给投资者带来了独特的投资渠道。

Things To Know About AAPL, FB, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, NFLX 一些有关AAPL，FB，GOOGL，MSFT，AMZN，NFLX的事情

。Comparing The Big Cap Stock Valuations:

Symbol   Price   Mkt Cap   F. PE   PEG   P/S   P/B      P/C    Div.          Price Tgt
AAPL      170       805B       13.38   1.10    3.18    6.85    9.32   1.71%    179
AMZN   1608      797B        40.62   1.85    3.42  18.09  19.32   0           2076
GOOGL 1120      782B        20.46   1.46    5.72    4.38    7.17   0           1346
FB            163      468B        18.33   1.31    8.38    5.55   11.38  0             198
NFLX      357      157B        55.49    2.73    9.93  29.74   0         0             388
MSFT      108      820B        21.71    1.79    6.92     9.03    6.43 1.70%     126

Valuation rank from best to worst according to my impressions: AAPL, FB, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, NFLX ---tradeideablog.blogspot.com

。Apple is targeting April to debut a new streaming product that will include original content free for Apple device owners and a platform to subscribe to other digital media services. HBO hasn't signed on to the service yet but still may do so.Netflix and Hulu aren't expected to be a part of the "Channels" service. ---CNBC.com

。Last quarter, Amazon's revenue rose by a robust 20% -- outstanding for a company of its size, but a deceleration from the 38.2% growth (36% in constant currency) it delivered during the prior-year quarter. And for the current quarter, management guided for revenue growth in the 10% to 18% range, though it expects currency exchange rate shifts will drag on that metric to the tune of about 210 basis points. Still, a result on the lower end of that range would mark a fairly significant slackening from the 30%-plus growth rates of the past two years. ---finance.yahoo.com

。Facebook (FB) offers investors the best investment opportunity in tech right now. Why? Because its business model is similar to that of a toll bridge, where a large number of users spend time on its platform every single month. As a result, Facebook generates cash flow like few other businesses, and its stock is also dramatically undervalued. ---Thestreet.com

。In the coming five years, a closer look reveals that relative price appreciation may favor Apple, Alphabet (GOOGL ) , Tesla (TSLA) and Facebook (FB) , while Amazon (AMZN ) , Netflix (NFLX ) and Microsoft (MSFT ) seem more of a stretch, based simply on how far each has risen. Looking at their relative returns of the past five years, Apple, Alphabet and Facebook have been the laggards of the FAANGs, rising 120%, 88% and 54%, respectively. That compares to 353%, 183%, and 231%, respectively, for Amazon, Microsoft and Netflix. ---Thestreet.com

。Both Alphabet and Microsoft are financial powerhouses, with each generating more than $45 billion in annual operating cash flow. Yet I was tempted to give Microsoft the edge here because of its superior free cash flow generation, which is due in part to its lower capital expenditure requirements compared to Alphabet. But after looking at their balance sheets, it's clear that Alphabet currently has the advantage in terms of financial fortitude. Though Microsoft has $18 billion more in cash reserves, it also has nearly $70 billion more debt. That places its net cash position at about $55 billion, compared to more than $105 billion for Alphabet. So while Microsoft's financial strength is impressive, Alphabet's is even more remarkable.----The Motley Fool

。By being a first mover, Netflix has some significant competitive advantages that should last for quite some time. The company’s name has become of top-of-mind for streaming. The company also has a lead in critical areas like AI, which has allowed for more effective content creation. And yes, there is the scale of the user base. There are currently about 139 million subscribers across 190 countries. In other words, Netflix is winning the “land grab” of the streaming opportunity. To put things into perspective, look at some of the findings from Lab42, a market research firm. About 89% of streaming subscribers are customers of Netflix and the renewal rate is 93%. By comparison, AMZN’s is at 75% and Hulu’s is 64%.There are notable risk factors for Netflix stock. The competitive environment is getting more intense. Some of the rivals include Disney (DIS), CBS (CBS), Amazon, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL).  ---Tom Taulli, Twitter at @ttaulli

。比较大盘股估值：

Symbol   Price   Mkt Cap   F. PE   PEG   P/S   P/B      P/C    Div.          Price Tgt


AAPL      170       805B       13.38   1.10    3.18    6.85    9.32   1.71%    179
AMZN   1608      797B        40.62   1.85    3.42  18.09  19.32   0           2076
GOOGL 1120      782B        20.46   1.46    5.72    4.38    7.17   0           1346
FB            163      468B        18.33   1.31    8.38    5.55   11.38  0             198
NFLX      357      157B        55.49    2.73    9.93  29.74   0         0             388
MSFT      108      820B        21.71    1.79    6.92     9.03    6.43 1.70%     126

根据我的想法，估值从最佳到最差排名：AAPL，FB，GOOGL，MSFT，AMZN，NFLX --- tradeideablog.blogspot.com

。苹果公司将在4月份推出新的流媒体产品。产品将包括Apple设备所有者免费的原创内容和订阅其他数字媒体服务的平台。 HBO还没有签署该服务，但仍有可能这样做。Netflix和Hulu预计不会成为“频道”服务的一部分。 ---CNBC.com

。上个季度，亚马逊的收入增长了20％ - 这是一家规模庞大的公司，但是从去年同期的38.2％增长（按固定汇率计算为36％）已开始减速。而在本季度，管理层指引收入增长率将在10％至18％的范围内，但预计货币汇率的变化将拖累约210个基点。这个增长范围将标志着过去两年30％以上的增长率会相当显着的放缓。 ---finance.yahoo.com

。Facebook（FB）现在为投资者提供最佳的科技投资机会。为什么？因为它的业务模式类似于收费桥，其中大量用户每个月都在其平台上花费时间。因此，Facebook产生的现金流量与其他少数企业一样，而其股票也被严重低估。 ---Thestreet.com

。在接下来的五年中，仔细观察发现相对价格升值可能有利于Apple（AAPL），Alphabet（GOOGL），特斯拉（TSLA）和Facebook（FB），而亚马逊（AMZN），Netflix（NFLX）和微软（MSFT）基于每一只股票的上升幅度似乎有些过份。看看过去五年的相对回报，Apple，Alphabet和Facebook一直是FAANGs的落后者，分别上涨120％，88％和54％。相比之下，亚马逊，微软和Netflix分别为353％，183％和231％。 ---Thestreet.com

。Alphabet和Microsoft都是财务强大的公司，每年的经营现金流超过450亿美元。然而，由于其优越的自由现金流的产生，我认为微软在这里获得优势，部分原因在于其与Alphabet相比有着较低的资本支出要求。但在查看了他们的资产负债表之后，很明显，Alphabet目前在财务方面具有优势。虽然微软拥有180亿美元的现金储备，但它还有近700亿美元的债务。这使其净现金约为550亿美元，而Alphabet则超过1050亿美元。因此，尽管微软的财务实力令人印象深刻，但Alphabet更为卓越.---- The Motley Fool

。作为先行者，Netflix具有一些重要的竞争优势，应会持续相当长一段时间。 该公司的名称已成为流媒体的首选。 该公司还在AI等关键领域处于领先地位，这使得内容创建更加有效。 是的，有用户群的规模。 目前在190个国家/地区拥有约1.39亿用户。 换句话说，Netflix正在赢得流媒体机会的“抢地优势”。 为了正确看待问题，请看市场研究公司Lab42的一些调查结果。 大约89％的流媒体订阅者是Netflix的客户，续订率为93％。 相比之下，AMZN为75％，Hulu为64％。不过Netflix股票存在显着的风险因素是竞争环境越来越激烈。 一些竞争对手包括迪斯尼（DIS），哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS），亚马逊，Alphabet（GOOG，GOOGL）和Apple（AAPL）。 --- Tom Taulli，Twitter @ttaulli

A Market Turning Point Is Near， Will It Happen？市场转折点临近，是否会发生？

S&P 500 has risen 18.28% since 2018 December low and is only 25 points away from 2800 level.
This kind of big move up in such a short time is not seen at least in the last 22 years. The market is too bullish to trust as fundamentals do not match. Since the index was turned back down 3 times in the past near 2800,  it is a formidable resistance to go over. It also happens that February 19 is a Full Moon Day coincide with trend lines crossing on that day, it increases the chance of a trend reversal. Even though stock market sometimes defies expectation, but these overwhelming evidence deserve attention.

标准普尔500指数自2018年12月低点以来已上涨了18.28％，现在距离2800点仅25点了。 在这么短的时间里，这种大升幅至少在过去的22年里没有出现过。 由于基本面不匹配，股市的过于乐观令人难以信任。 由于指数在过去在接近2800点时被阻回落了3次，因此这是一个难过的阻力。 2月19日为月圆日而趋势线相交也发生在当天，这大大增加了趋势逆转的机率。 尽管股市有时会违背预期，但这些压倒性的转势证据值得关注。

Interesting Market Charts From Social Media 来自社交媒体的有用市场图表

Andy Nyquist‏Verified account @andrewnyquist 15h15 hours ago

$SPX S&P 500 closes week above 200 day MA; eyeing 2800 resistance and key Fib at 2810 #IBDpartner

Charlie Bilello‏Verified account @charliebilello Feb 13

On Dec 24, only 1% of stocks in the S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving avg, one of the most extreme oversold levels in history. After a 17% vertical rally, that number now stands at 89.8%, highest since April 2016 & in 97th percentile of historical readings.

Thomas Thornton‏ @TommyThornton Feb 14

Bell Ringer! $SPX futures with DeMark Combo, Aggressive Sequential, and today Sequential Countdown 13.

Troy Bombardia‏ @bullmarketsco 18h18 hours ago

$VIX has closed under 15, for the first time in more than 4 months Historically, this was: Bearish for the S&P 500 $SPX 87% of the time 2 months later Bullsi for the S&P 100% of the time 1 year later

Michael A. Gayed, CFA‏ @pensionpartners 23h23 hours ago

Over the past, yield spreads have narrowed significantly, similar to prior times that led to the 2000 and 2007 recessions. $SPX

Uncle Rico‏ @UncleRico77 Feb 12

This may the most important chart of the week from my good friend Mike Wilson. Either the Fed gets hawkish again, or the economy rolls over hard. This spread is historic and CANNOT hold. Something has to break one way or the other. Neither is good for stocks. $ES_F $SPX

Dana Lyons‏ @JLyonsFundMgmt 2h2 hours ago

Chart Of The Week (by views): Investors Pile Back Into Stocks $SPY $SPX Post: https://lyonssharepro.com/2019/02/investors-pile-back-into-stocks-unlocked-premium/ …

EWavePlayerFeb 16th, 6:05 am

$SPY - Volume is everything.. Still plenty of headroom. Shorts will need to fold soon. $DIA $QQQ $SPX $XLF $IMW $EEM

FXMTrendsFeb 15th, 9:41 pm

$UVXY $VIX $DJIA $SPX $SPY $SPXS $ES_F $DJ_F 🚨Be prepared for additional volatility over next several weeks!! Don’t be fooled! 📚🔎= 💵💰