How will the stock market behave after US-China trade talk restarts? 美中贸易谈判重启后股市将如何表现？

Now that the Trump-Xi meeting is over and US-China trade talk restarts, how will stock market reacts? The US stock market has been rallying before the meeting expecting a truce between the two countries i.e. the good news has been discounted. Now that the result came out as expected, there may be a  relieve rally on Monday morning driven by short covering and fear of missing out buying. Whether the rally can be sustained is doubtful since trade issues between the two countries are still to be resolved and the existing tariffs are still trouble for both economies. A negative of this week end's good news is that as the trade war is not intensifying, chance of fed interest rate cut may be reduced.  In addition, Q2 earnings are coming up, FactSet points out the number of S&P 500 EPS warning is the second highest since 2006 and this means earnings trouble may be ahead. Technically, the Dow is 352 points , 1.3% away from all time high 26952, S&P 500 is 22 points, 0.7% away from all time high 2694 and Nasdaq Composite is 170 points, 2.1% away from all time high 8176. These levels are formidable resistances, however they may be breached on Monday. Whether they can be held is important. I think the odd favors the relief rally may not go very far before it reverses. US stock market is pricy and at all time high just doesn't look right as US-China trade talk is still on going and confrontation may rise again and corporate earnings are coming down.

Followings are trade talk related news:

。The "worst case" trade war scenario was avoided in Osaka on Saturday when Trump agreed to restart trade talks with Xi, holding off new tariffs on Chinese exports, and signaling a pause in the trade hostilities between the world’s two largest economies; Trump added that while existing tariffs would remain in place the US president eased restrictions on Huawei as part of what is now the second ceasefire between the two superpowers in two months, removing an immediate threat looming over the global economy even as a lasting peace remains elusive. ---Seeking Alpha

。U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that while his meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping was far better than expected, he was “in no hurry” to cut a trade deal. Trump also said he would not increase existing tariffs to China. “I am in no hurry, but things look very good,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter, referring to ongoing talks between Washington and Beijing. “The quality of the transaction is far more important to me than speed.” ---Reuters

。China and the United States will face a long road before they can reach a deal to end their bitter trade war, with more fights ahead likely, Chinese state media said after the two countries’ presidents held ice-breaking talks in Japan. ---Reuters

。The following are digest of what analysts are thinking from Bloomberg:

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, senior macro strategist at NatWest Markets in Singapore: “Investor sentiment is set to be buoyed in the week ahead by a truce in the U.S.-China trade war.”

Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets in Bangkok:
The “reset button” being hit on trade talks was the markets’ base-case scenario, and this is supportive for risk, but the lack of a timeline for progress may cap “bullish topside ambitions.”

Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ in Hong Kong:“Today’s outcome, similar to last December’s, still does not convince us that the trade tensions have been resolved. China and the US have not made any progress on key issues, namely, intellectual property rights and technology transfer.”

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Financial in Melbourne:“I can’t see this meeting doing risk assets any harm, but there is still a lot of work to do to convince central banks they don’t need to act to keep the economic expansion in check.”“A few weak shorts may look to close out on Monday” given the tariff reprieve, prospects for negotiations to restart and that both sides “actually appear more united than expected.”

Alfonso Esparza, senior market analyst at Oanda in Toronto:“Everybody played their part without any additional drama and until more details emerge we are back at square one.”

Jean-Charles Sambor, deputy of head of emerging-market fixed income at BNP Paribas Asset Management in London: “This is of course good. Investors have been generally negative on both the probability of a meeting and the probability of a positive outcome following this meeting.”

Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 currency research at Credit Agricole:The implication is that further easing of U.S. conditions stemming from stock-market optimism following the G-20 summit "should reduce the need for imminent Fed rate cut in July." This makes the upcoming U.S. payrolls and ISM data “very important" to the near-term rates outlook.

David Page, senior economist at AXA Investment Managers:The lack of detail elevates uncertainty "as markets reflect on the similarity to last November’s situation". No escalation in the trade war "reduces the likelihood of a sharp Fed cutting cycle." Page maintains his view of two cuts in 2019, starting in September.





特朗普-习近平会议已结束，美中贸易谈判宣布重启，股市将如何走法？在两国达成休战之前，美国股市已一直在上涨，很多好消息看来已经被反映了。现在结果真的如预期一样，股市周一早上可能会出现由卖空回补及害怕损失机会买入的缓解性上升。由于两国之间的贸易问题仍有待解决，两国的现有关税还在打击经济，因此上升能否持续是值得怀疑的。周末的好消息的另一种解读是，由于贸易战没有加剧，美联储减息的可能性可能会降低。而第二季度企业收益报告即将到来，FactSet指出标准普尔500指数EPS预警数量是自2006年以来的第二高，这暗示财报的麻烦可能就在前面。技术上，道指距离历史高位26952还差352点，约1.3％，标准普尔500指数距离历史高位2694还差22点，约0.7%，而纳斯达克综合指数距离历史最高点8176还有170点，约2.1％。这些水平将会是难过的阻力，不过它们可能在周一就会被挑战或超越。但是否能够守稳很重要。我觉得这次上升行情可能不会走得太远便会反转。由于美中贸易谈判仍在继续，冲突可能随时会再起，而企业盈利又不看好，价格昂贵的美国股市而又在历史高位看来并不合适。

以下是一些有关中美贸易谈判的一些相关新闻：

。周六在大板，“最坏情况”的贸易战情景得到避免。特朗普与习近平同意重启贸易谈判，取消对中国出口的新关税，世界两大经济体之间的贸易敌对行动暂停。特朗普补充说，尽管现有的关税仍将存在，但美国总统放宽了对华为的限制，这是两个月内两个超级大国之间的第二次停火的一部分，消除了对全球经济的迫在眉睫的威胁，即使和平能否持久仍然难以捉摸。 ---Seeking Alpha

。唐纳德特朗普总统周六表示，虽然他与中国国家主席习近平的会晤成果远胜于预期，但他“并不急于”达成贸易协议。特朗普还表示，他不会增加对中国的现有关税。 “我并不着急，但事情看起来非常好，”特朗普在推文中写道，指的是华盛顿和北京之间正在进行的谈判。 “协议质量对我而言比速度更重要。”---路透社

。中国官方媒体在两国元首在日本举行破冰谈判后表示，中国和美国将面临漫长的道路才能达成协议以结束其激烈的贸易战，以后可能会有更多的争斗。---路透社

。以下是从彭博社得来的一些分析师看法内容摘要：

新加坡NatWest Markets高级宏观策略师Mansoor Mohi-uddin表示：“美中贸易战得到缓解，投资者情绪将在未来一周得到提振。”

曼谷Vanguard Markets的执行合伙人Stephen Innes：贸易谈判“重新按钮”是市场基本情况，这对风险起支撑作用，但缺乏进展时间表可能会限制“看涨的上行野心”。

ANZ驻香港首席中国经济学家Raymond Yeung表示：“今天的结果与去年12月相似，仍未能说贸易紧张局势得到解决。中国和美国在关键问题上没有取得任何进展，即知识产权和技术转让。“

墨尔本Pepperstone Financial的研究主管克里斯韦斯顿说：“我看不到这次会议对风险资产造成任何伤害，但仍有很多工作要做，以说服中央银行他们不需要采取行动来保持经济扩张受到制约。“ 鉴于新关税暂停，谈判重启的前景以及双方“实际上看起来比预期更加团结”，“一些弱势空头可能会被迫在周一回补平仓”。

在多伦多的Oanda高级市场分析师阿方索·埃斯帕萨（Alfonso Esparza）表示：“每个人都在没有任何额外戏剧性的情况下发挥自己的作用，在没有更多细节出现的情况下，我们回到原点。”

伦敦法国巴黎银行资产管理公司新兴市场固定收益部门负责人Jean-Charles Sambor说：“这当然是好事。投资者事前对会议的可能性以及会议后获得积极结果的可能性一般都是负面的。“

法国农业信贷银行G-10货币研究负责人瓦伦丁·马里诺夫（Valentin Marinov）：其含义是，在20国集团峰会之后，股市乐观情绪会进一步缓解了美国的情况，“这将减少美联储即将在7月降息的必要性”。这导致即将到来的美国非农就业数据和ISM数据对近期利率前景“非常重要”。

AXA投资经理高级经济学家David Page：由于市场反映了与去年11月情况的相似性，缺乏细节提升了不确定性。贸易战中没有升级“减少了美联储急剧减xi周期的可能性。”Page维持了他对从9月份开始2019年两次削减的看法。

Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 8:01AM : Dow+31.80，  S&P 500 +5.84， Nasdaq +12.2， Russell 2000 +12.99, WTI crude oil -0.66%，Gold+0.21%， US dollar index-0.15%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.012% +0.007

Oversea markets: Shanghai-0.60%, Japan-0.29%, Hong Kong -0.28%, Germany+0.83%, UK+0.14%, France +0.65%.

Weak sectors: IYZ, FDN  Strong sectors: EWG, IYT, XLF, IBB, XRT, GDX, GDXJ


Major market indexes opened up, dipped below yesterday's close briefly and are now bouncing back up. Bank stocks are strong after passing Fed stress test and approved their capital plans. Apple is losing its chief design officer and stock is down nearly 1%. Investors are waiting for result between Trump and Xi to be held tomorrow in Japan. Consensus expect a trade war truce and the two side will restart negotiation, no new tariff to be initiated by Trump.  The  market is likely to trade in narrow range while waiting for tomorrow's result.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he hoped for productive talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on a trade war that is casting a shadow on global growth, but said he had not made any promises about a reprieve from escalating tariffs. “At a minimum it will be productive. We’ll see what happens and what comes out of it,” Trump told reporters after a series of meetings with leaders where he made clear that his priority was two-way trade deals to boost the U.S. economy. Asked, however, if he had promised Xi a six-month reprieve on imposing new tariffs on a $300 billion list of Chinese imports, Trump said: “No.” ---Reuters

The Federal Reserve didn't object to the capital plans of all 18 firms subject to its CCAR stress tests, but is requiring Credit Suisse (CS) to address "certain limited weaknesses in its capital planning processes." Big U.S. banks, like JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC), showered investors with fatter dividends and share repurchases following the news. Another notable, Deutsche Bank (DB), cleared the hurdle after failing last year's assessment, sending shares of the lender up 3% premarket. ---Wall street Breakfast

How much was Jon Ive worth to Apple (AAPL)? Apparently $9B. That's the market value the tech giant lost when its shares fell 1% AH on Thursday as the chief design officer announced his exit to start his own firm that will count Apple among its customers. He's been "one of the most important figures at Apple" during his tenure, according to Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives. "From his iMac vision to the stunning iPhone launch and transformation his fingerprints are deeply woven within Apple’s core DNA." ---Wall Street Breakfast

Loop Capital maintains a Buy rating on Facebook (FB) and raises its target from $200 to $225.The firm cites FB's recently announced cryptocurrency plans, saying Libra will "help balance the narrative on FB to innovation and another step towards monetization of its messaging platforms." ---Seeking Alpha

Goldman Sachs (GS) is looking at digital currencies and conducting "extensive research" on tokenization -- turning currencies or assets into tradeable digital currencies or assets contained on a blockchain, Goldman CEO David Solomon told France's Les Echos newspaper. The bank's move follows JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) announcement in February that it's developed JPM Coin, a stable coin its clients can use for cross-border payments. This month Facebook introduced its own coin, called Libra, which it plans to launch next year. Blockchain-based stable coins tied to real currencies, though, are "the direction in which the payment system will go," he said. ---Seeking alpha

Constellation Brands (STZ ) posted stronger-thane-expected first quarter earnings Friday, and boosted its full-year profit outlook, as the Corona beer maker continues to reap the rewards of selling its low-end wine brand portfolio for around $1.7 billion earlier this year. Constellation said comparable earnings for the three months ending in May, the group's fiscal first quarter, came in at $2.21 per share, up modestly from the same period last year but firmly ahead of the Street consensus of $2.07 per share. Group revenues, Constellation said, rose 2% to $2.097 billion and also topped analysts' estimates of a $2.07 billion tally. ---The Street





太平洋时间上午8:01：道指+ 31.80，标普500 + 5.84，纳斯达克+12.2，罗素2000 +12.99，WTI原油-0.66％，黄金+ 0.21％，美元指数0.15％，10年期国债收益率2.012％+0.007

海外市场：上海-0.60％，日本-0.29％，香港-0.28％，德国+ 0.83％，英国+ 0.14％，法国+ 0.65％。

弱势行业：IYZ，FDN   强势行业：EWG，IYT，XLF，IBB，XRT，GDX，GDXJ


主要市场指数开盘上升，回落，短暂跌破昨日收盘价，目前反弹回升。 在通过美联储压力测试并批准其资本计划后，银行股今天表现强劲。 苹果失去其首席设计官，股价下跌近1％。 投资者正在等待明天在日本举行的特朗普和习近平之间的贸易谈判结果。 市场普遍预期贸易战休战，双方将重启谈判而特朗普不会启动新的关税。 在明天的贸易谈判结果之前，市场窄幅波动的机会大。


。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五表示，他希望与中国国家主席习近平就一场对全球经济增长构成影响的贸易战进行富有成效的会谈，但他表示，他没有就缓解关税升级作出任何承诺。 “至少它会很有成效。我们将看到会发生什么以及从中发生什么，“特朗普在与领导人举行一系列会谈后告诉记者，他明确表示，他的首要任务是促进美国经济的双向贸易协议。但是，当被问及他是否曾向习近平承诺对3000亿美元的中国进口产品延迟征收新的关税六个月时，特朗普说：“不。”---路透社

。美联储并未反对所有18家受其CCAR压力测试影响的公司的资本计划，但要求瑞士信贷（CS）解决“资本规划过程中某些有限的弱点”。美国大型银行，如摩根大通（JPM），花旗集团（C），高盛（GS）和美国银行（BAC），在此消息传出后，给投资者带来了更大的股息和股票回购。另一家着名的德意志银行（DB）在去年的评估失败后清除了这一障碍，使得该股票上涨了3％。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Jon Ive对Apple（AAPL）的价值是多少？显然是$ 9B。这是科技巨头在周四后市股价下跌1％时失去的市值，因为首席设计官Jon Ive宣布退出苹果创办自己的公司，并将苹果公司视为其客户之一。据Wedbush分析师Daniel Ives称，他在任期内一直是“Apple最重要的人物之一”。 “从他的iMac愿景到令人惊叹的iPhone发布和转型，他的指纹深深地融入了苹果的核心DNA中。” ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Loop Capital维持对Facebook（FB）的买入评级，并将其目标价从200美元上调至225美元。该公司援引FB最近公布的加密货币计划，称Libra将“帮助FB对创新的平衡，以及其消息平台货币化的又一步骤“。 ---Seeking Alpha

。高盛首席执行官大卫·所罗门告诉法国的Les Echos报纸，高盛（GS）正在研究数字货币并对代币化进行“广泛研究” - 将货币或资产转换为可交易的数字货币或区块链中包含的资产。该银行的举动是继JPMorgan Chase（JPM）2月宣布其开发的JPM Coin之后，客户可用该稳定货币于跨境支付。本月，Facebook推出了自己的货币币，名为Libra，计划于明年推出。大卫·所罗门说与实际货币挂钩的基于区块链的稳定货币是“支付系统将走向的方向”。 ---Seeking Alpha

。Constellation Brands（STZ）周五发布了强劲高yu预期的第一季度盈利，并看好其全年盈利前景。Corona啤酒制造商继续获得以低于17亿美元的价格出售其低端葡萄酒品牌组合的回报。 Constellation表示，截至5月份的三个月，该集团第 一财季的可比收益为每股2.21美元，较去年同期略有上升，但远高于市场预期的每股2.07美元。 Constellation表示，集团收入增长2％至20.97亿美元，并超过分析师预计的20.7亿美元。 ---The Street

Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 7:30AM : Dow -7.50，  S&P 500 +11.91， Nasdaq +52.14， Russell 2000 +15.26, WTI crude oil +0.07%，Gold-0.43%， US dollar index+0.03%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.031% +0.018

Oversea markets: Shanghai+0.69%, Japan+1.19%, Hong Kong +1.42%, Germany+0.38%, UK-0.15%, France -0.06%.

Weak sectors: SMH, IYR, XLF, IBB, IGV  Strong sectors: GDX, GDXJ, SLV

Major market indexes opened mixed and stay mixed. Dow is down while S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 are up. More problems for Boeing's 727 Max plane is driving BA down nearly 3% which drags down the Dow. While analyst upgrade of Nvidea helps semiconductor stocks moving higher. China presented a set of terms the US should meet before continue trade talks which includes removing US ban on sale of American technology to Huawei. Don't really know whether US would accept the terms but Saturday would be crucial as the result of meeting between Trump and Xi will be known. Meanwhile, US stocks is likely to continue the previous 4 days of weakness as uncertainty of trade talk looms. Investor may sell on morning strength later in the day like yesterday.

。Ahead of their G20 meeting in Osaka, President Xi plans to present President Trump with a set of terms the U.S. should meet before China is ready to settle their market-rattling trade confrontation, WSJ reports. Among the preconditions, Beijing is insisting that Washington remove its ban on the sale of American technology to Huawei and also wants the U.S. to lift all punitive tariffs. China also wants the Trump administration to drop efforts to get China to buy even more U.S. exports than Beijing said it would when the two leaders last met in December. ---Seeking Alpha

。Goldman Sachs Group Inc. joined JPMorgan Chase & Co. in pulling down its forecasts for U.S. Treasury yields, incorporating expectations for a prolonged hit from the U.S.-China trade war, along with the dovish shift by key central banks. Goldman’s strategists slashed their year-end 10-year U.S. yield call to 1.75% -- matching JPMorgan’s updated prediction from May 31. That’s down from Goldman’s 2.80% projection reiterated last Sunday. Goldman also cut its yield forecasts for Japan, the euro region and other developed nations. ---Bloomberg

。The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China published new data Monday that shows agricultural imports from the US have fallen, as Chinese buyers shift supply chains out of the US to other countries because of the deepening trade war. In the first five months of 2019, imports of agricultural products from the US crashed 55.3% YoY. Much of decline was due to a 70.6% YoY decline of soybeans in the same period. ---Zero Hedge

。The world’s largest cryptocurrency soared to its highest price since January 2018 Wednesday. Bitcoin spiking above $13,500 intraday (up over $2000 in the last 24 hours - Bitcoin's biggest daily dollar rise since Dec 2017). Prices later eased to below $12,000 but were still up more than 35% for the week. While its price moves can be opaque, analysts largely attributed the bitcoin bounce to more interest in the space following Facebook’s announcement of a cryptocurrency project, key technical levels being broken, and safe haven buying amidst increasing global tensions.  GBTC rallied 14.78% Wednesday. ---Zero Hedge, CNBC

。Boeing (BA +1.6%) pared gains into the close following a Reuters report that the Federal Aviation Administration has found a "potential risk" that the company must fix before the 737 MAX can return to service. The risk was discovered during a simulator test last week, which likely will prevent BA from running a certification test flight until at least July 8, according to the report. ---Seeking Alpha

。In its wave of semiconductor starts, Wedbush initiates Nvidia (NVDA) at Outperform with a PT of $184, a 16% upside. ---Seeking Alpha

。Credit Suisse initiates coverage of Tesla (TSLA) with an “underperform” rating and a price target 186 15% below where the stock closed on Wednesday. Tesla will have to “settle as a niche automaker” and will likely compete head-to-head with incumbent Volkswagen, according to analyst Dan Levy. Tesla is leading in areas like electrification and software that will define the future of carmaking, but Levy says “it faces risks ahead. ”---CNBC

。Deutsche Bank raises its Facebook (FB) PT from $220 to $230 and keeps a Buy rating. The firm reiterates Facebook as its top large-cap internet pick. Analyst Lloyd Walmsley sees "several levers for the shares to move higher over the near and medium term" and raises his earnings expectations for 2019 and 2020.





太平洋时间早上7:30：道指-7.50，标准普尔500指数+11.91，纳斯达克指数+52.14，罗素2000 +15.26，WTI原油+ 0.07％，黄金-0.43％，美元指数+ 0.03％，10年期国债收益率2.031％+ 0.018

海外市场：上海+ 0.69％，日本+ 1.19％，香港+ 1.42％，德国+ 0.38％，英国-0.15％，法国-0.06％。

弱行业：SMH，IYR，XLF，IBB，IGV强势行业：GDX，GDXJ，SLV


主要市场指数开盘涨跌互现。现在也是涨跌互见。道琼斯指数下跌，标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克综合指数和罗素2000指数上升。波音公司727 Max飞机面临的更多问题正在推动BA下跌近3％而拖累了道琼斯指数。Nvidea被分析师升级有助于半导体股走高。在继续进行贸易谈判之前，中国提出了一系列美国应该达成的条款，其中包括取消美国禁止向华为出售美国技术。不知道美国是否接受这些条款，但周六将是至关重要的，因为特朗普和习近平会面的结果将会公布。由于贸易谈判的不确定性，美国股市可能会延续前4天的疲软表现。投资者可能会像昨天一样在当天晚些时候趁高沽货。


。据华尔街日报报道，在20国集团在大阪召开会议之前，习主席计划向特朗普总统提出一系列条款，美国应该在中国准备好解决市场混乱的贸易对抗之前应该达成一致。在这些先决条件中，北京方面坚持要求华盛顿取消对华为出售美国技术的禁令，并希望美国取消所有惩罚性关税。中国还希望特朗普政府放弃努力让中国购买更多的美国出口产品多于这两位领导人将于去年12月举行会谈时得承诺。 ---Seeking Alpha

。高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）加入摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase＆Co。）行列，下调其对美国国债收益率的预期，结合了美中贸易战长期打击的预期，以及主要央行的温和转变。高盛的策略师将其年终10年期美国收益率调整至1.75％ - 与摩根大通5月31日的最新预测相符。这与上周日重申的高盛2.80％预测相比有所下降。高盛还下调了对日本，欧元区和其他发达国家的收益率预测。 ---彭博

。中华人民共和国农业和农村事务部周一公布的新数据显示，由于贸易战愈演愈烈，中国买家将供应链从美国转移到其他国家，因此美国的农产品进口量下降。在2019年的前五个月，来自美国的农产品进口同比下降55.3％。大部分下降是由于大豆同比下跌70.6％。 --- Zero Hedge

。世界上最大的加密货币周三飙升至2018年1月以来的最高价。比特币盘中飙升至13,500美元以上（过去24小时内上涨超过2000美元 - 比特币自2017年12月以来的最大单日涨幅）。价格随后回落至12,000美元以下，但本周仍然上涨超过35％。虽然其价格走势可能不透明，分析师在很大程度上将比特币反弹归因于Facebook宣布加密货币项目，关键技术水平被打破及在全球紧张局势加剧的情况下避险买盘。GBTC 周三上升14.78%。 --- Zero Hedge，CNBC

。路透社报道美国联邦航空管理局要波音公司（BA） 必须在737 MAX恢复服务之前必须解决新发现的“潜在风险”。根据该报告，该风险是在上周的模拟器测试中发现的，这可能会阻止BA至少在7月8日之前进行认证测试。 ---Seeking Alpha

。在其半导体启动跟踪浪潮中，Wedbush给与Nvidia（NVDA）优于大市评级，目标价为184美元，比周三收市价高16％。 ---Seeking Alpha

。瑞士信贷开始跟踪特斯拉（TSLA）并给予“跑输大市”评级，目标价格比周三收盘价低15％约为186。据分析师丹·利维（Dan Levy）称，特斯拉将不得不“成为一家专门汽车制造商”并可能与现有的大众汽车公司展开激烈竞争。特斯拉在电气化和软件领域处于领先地位，这将决定汽车制造的未来，但利维表示“它面临着未来的风险。 “--- CNBC

。德意志银行将其Facebook（FB）目标价从220美元上调至230美元并维持买入评级。该公司重申Facebook是其最大的大型互联网选择。分析师劳埃德·沃姆斯利（Lloyd Walmsley）认为“股票在近期和中期内会有几种利好推动走高”，并提高了他对2019年和2020年的盈利预期。

Counting Negatives For The Stock Market 盘点对股市负面的因素

1. Dow formed multiple tops, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite formed triple tops, Russell 2000 formed head and shoulder top.

2. Transportation Index formed head and shoulder top and is below its 200, 50 and 20 day moving average. Its trend diverges with Dow trend, this is bearish according to Dow Theory.

3. Biotech sector (IBB) formed round top and is below its 200 day moving average.

4. Weak Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) price actions drag down tech stocks.

5. Uncertainty in US-China trade talk and market may have discounted possible good news from the upcoming weekend.

6. Iran crisis is intensifying.

7. The depth of interest rate cut has decreased， and July may not be the time to lower rate as expected.

8. Big rise in both gold and bitcoin is indicative of investors nervous about the economy and stock market and are buying hedges.

9. Fear Gauge ETF VXX is showing too much optimism and this usually cause market to reverse down. VXX is coming off low and formed double bottoms.

10. Big rise in semiconductor stocks on Micron earning is over done and may come back down soon.

11. Q2 corporate earning reports are to begin in July and do not expect to be good. According to Fact Set , earnings growth for Q2 2019, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -2.6%. If -2.6% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported two straight quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q1 2016 and Q2 2016.

12. Latest reports for Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Durable Good Orders are much worse than expectations. Inventory overhang are weighing on the manufacturing sector. Regional surveys suggest the national ISM manufacturing index will fall below the breakeven 50 level on Monday, which will only heighten fears of recession for the sector.

13.  With corporations entering earning recession, troubles all over  economically,  geopolitically and trades, it does not make sense to have the stock market near all time high.







1。道指形成多重顶，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数形成三顶，罗素2000形成头肩顶。

2。运输指数形成头肩顶并且低于其200日，50日和20日均线。其趋势与道指趋势背离，根据道氏理论，这是看空的。

3。生物技术板块（IBB）形成圆顶并且低于200日均线。

4。谷歌（GOOG）和Facebook（FB）的价格行为弱势拖累科技股。

5。美中贸易谈判的不确定性令投资人担忧。市场可能已经反映了这个周末可能带来的好消息。

6。伊朗危机正在加剧。

7。预期降息幅度有所下降并且有可能7月份不如预期般的减息。

8。黄金和比特币的大幅上涨表明投资者对经济和股市感到担忧而买入对冲避险。

9。恐惧指数ETF VXX显示出过份的乐观情绪，市场往往在这种情况下反转向下。VXX已形成双底并开始上升。

10。美光收益导致半导体股大幅上涨有些过份，可能很快就会回落。

11。第二季度企业盈利报告将于7月份开始，预计不会好。根据Fact Set，2019年第二季度标准普尔500指数的预计盈利下降-2.6％。如果季度的实际下降幅度为-2.6％，那将是自2016年第一季度和2016年第二季度以来该指数首次连续两个季度的收益下降。

12。消费者信心，新屋销售，耐用品订单的最新报告远比预期为差。而库存积压正在影响制造业。 区域调查显示，周一全国ISM制造业指数将跌破盈亏平衡的50水平，这只会加剧对该行业衰退的担忧。

13。随着企业进入盈利衰退，经济，地缘政治和贸易都有问题，股市接近历史高位是不合逻辑的。

Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 7:55AM : Dow +54，  S&P 500 +5.87， Nasdaq +52， Russell 2000 +4 WTI crude oil +2.77%，Gold-0.58%， US dollar index+0.15%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.018% +0.024

Oversea markets: Shanghai-0.19%, Japan-0.51%, Hong Kong +0.13%, Germany+0.10%, UK-0.05%, France -0.17%.

Weak sectors: GDX, GDXJ, IYR, GLD, PPH, IBB  Strong sectors: SMH, OIH, FXI, EEM, SOCL, FDN

Micron earning came in better than expected, Treasury Secretary said US-China trade deal is 90% done and strength in oil price helped stock market this morning. At its high, the Dow was up 112 point but has now pull back to only up 54 points.  Nasdaq Composite was up almost 90 points and is now only up 52. Fear gauge ETF VXX was down 0.66 and then bounced sharply to only down 0.36.  Investors are selling rallies. Technically, the Dow has formed multiple tops while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are seeing double tops. The weakest is Russell 2000 which formed head and shoulder top and is below its 200 and 50 day moving averages. The Dow Transportation Index has also formed head and shoulder top and is below its 200, 50 and 20 day moving averages. The divergence between the Dow and Dow Transportation Index is bearish for the overall market according to Dow Theory. There is still looming danger of the stock market and is time to be cautious.

。“We were about 90% of the way there [with a deal] and I think there’s a path to complete this,” US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin  told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in Manama, Bahrain. He’s optimistic that progress can be made during weekend talks between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of investors finds that about two-thirds expected no deal this weekend, but no new tariffs either. The drag on the economy from tariffs and weakened sentiment is expected to continue until there is a real deal.  Stocks are likely to see a temporary relief rally and bonds could sell off if there is a ‘ceasefire’ declared in the trade wars by the U.S. and China this weekend, but the damage to the global economy could continue until a tariff-ending deal is struck. ---CNBC

。May Durable Goods: -1.3% vs. 0.0% expected, -2.8%  (revised from -2.1%) prior. Core Durable Goods: +0.3%vs. +0.1% expected,  -0.1%(revised from flat) prior. ---Seeking Alpha

。The American Petroleum Institute reportedly shows a draw of 7.54M barrels of oil for the week ending June 21, following an 812K-barrel draw in the previous week. Oil price rises.---Seeking Alpha

。In a wide-ranging interview on Fox Business this morning, President Trump told Maria Bartiromo, reflecting in the bias against conservative speakers, that "we should be suing Google （GOOG） and Facebook （FB）and perhaps we will,” sending social media stocks lower. Additionally, Trump warned that substantial additional U.S. tariffs would be placed on goods from China if there’s no progress on a trade deal after his planned meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G-20 Summit in Japan.  ---Zero Hedge

。Micron Technology (MU): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.05 beats by $0.26; GAAP EPS of $0.74 beats by $0.15. Revenue of $4.79B (-38.6% Y/Y) beats by $90M. Adjusted gross margin was 39.3%, down from last year's 60.9% but near the upper end of Micron's guidance.The Q4 view has revenue within $200M of $4.5B (consensus: $4.56B) and EPS within $0.07 of $0.45 (consensus: $0.70). Gross margin expected within 1.9% of 29% (consensus: 34.8%). ---Seeking Alpha

。FedEx (FDX): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $5.01 beats by $0.18; GAAP EPS of -$7.56 misses by $11.50. Revenue of $17.8B (+2.9% Y/Y) misses by $50M. Looking ahead, operating income at FedEx Ground and FedEx Freight is expected to increase due to higher revenues. At FedEx Express, macroeconomic weakness and trade uncertainty, continued mix shift to lower-yielding services and a strategic decision to not renew a customer contract are anticipated to negatively impact operating income. "Our fiscal 2020 performance is being negatively affected by continued weakness in global trade and industrial production, especially at FedEx Express," notes FedEx CFO said Alan Graf. ---Seeking Alpha

。Wedbush raised its price target on Roku to $105 from $65. Wedbush said Roku has “substantial” growth opportunities. “Roku has built an exceptional platform on the back of its players, and as it expands in the rapidly growing Smart TV category, it has positioned itself as best in class for OTT advertising and is poised for international expansion. ” ---CNBC

。Wedbush lowers its Q2 unit delivery forecast on Tesla (TSLA) to 84K from 88K to reflect its view on demand. "We continue to believe the biggest overhang around the story is Tesla's ability to hit its overall unit guidance for 2019 of 360k to 400k units as this will be the telling tale of demand trends as Tesla is now a 'demand story' rather than a production story," writes analyst Dan Ives. He thinks Tesla hitting 275K Model 3 deliveries during the year would be viewed as a success.
Wedbush keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla and price target of $230. The consensus sell-side rating on Tesla is Hold. ---Seeking Alpha






太平洋时间上午7:55：道指+54，标准普尔500指数+5.87，纳斯达克+52，罗素2000 +4 WTI原油+ 2.77％，黄金-0.58％，美元指数+ 0.15％，10年期国债收益率2.018％+0.024

海外市场：上海-0.19％，日本-0.51％，香港+ 0.13％，德国+ 0.10％，英国-0.05％，法国-0.17％。

弱势行业：GDX，GDXJ，IYR，GLD，PPH，IBB强势行业：SMH，OIH，FXI，EEM，SOCL，FDN


美光财报好于预期，美国财政部长表示美中贸易协议已完成90％，油价走强帮助今早股市上涨。 道指最高时上涨了112点，但现在已回落至仅上涨54点。 纳斯达克综合指数最高上涨近90点，目前仅上涨52点。恐惧指标ETF VXX下跌0.66然后大幅反弹至仅下跌0.36。 投资者正在逢高卖出股票。 从技术上讲，道琼斯指数已形成多重顶，而标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均已出现双顶。 最弱的是罗素2000，它形成了头肩顶并且低于200和50天的移动平均线。 道指交通指数也形成了头肩顶并且低于其200日，50日和20日均线。 根据道氏理论，道指和道指交通指数之间的趋势背离对整体股市利空。 股市仍有迫在眉睫的危险，是时候保持谨慎。

。“我们已完成约有90％中美贸易协议，而且我认为会有一条完成此事的途径，”美国财政部长 Mnuchin在巴林麦纳麦告诉CNBC的Hadley Gamble。他对唐纳德特朗普总统与中国习近平周末会谈取得的进展表示乐观。美国银行美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）对投资者的一项调查发现，大约三分之二的人预计本周末不会达成协议，但也没有新的关税。关税和疲软情绪对经济的拖累预计将持续到实际达成协议为止。如果本周末美国和中国在贸易战中宣布“停火”，股市可能会出现暂时的缓解反弹，债券可能会抛售，但对全球经济的损害可能持续到关税终止协议为止。击中。 --- CNBC

。5月耐用品订单：-1.3％预期为0.0％，之前为-2.8％（从-2.1％修正）。核心耐用品：+ 0.3％，预期为+ 0.1％，之前为-0.1％（从持平修订）。 ---Seeking Alpha

。美国石油协会在截至6月21日的一周内，存储量在前一周的81200桶下跌后，显示了754万桶石油的大幅下挫。油价因而上升。---Seeking Alpha

。特朗普总统在今天早上对福克斯商业的广泛访谈中告诉玛丽亚巴蒂罗莫，反对保守派发言人的偏见，“我们应该起诉谷歌 （GOOG）和Facebook （FB），或许我们会这样做”，社交媒体股票随之走低。另外，特朗普警告称，在日本20国集团峰会上与中国国家主席习近平举行会谈后，如果贸易协议没有取得进展，将会对来自中国的商品征收大量额外的美国关税.---Zero Hedge

。美光科技（MU）：第三季度非GAAP每股盈利1.05美元，好于预期0.26美元; GAAP每股收益0.74美元，好于预期0.15美元。营收47.9亿美元（同比下降38.6％）超过预期9000万美元。调整后的毛利率为39.3％，低于去年的60.9％，但接近美光公司指引的上限。第四季度的收入在450＋- 2亿美元之内（市场预期：456亿美元），每股盈利在0.07美元以上，市场价格为0.45 +-0.07美元之内（市场预期：0.70美元） 。毛利率预计在29％＋-1.9％（市场预期：34.8％）。 ---Seeking Alpha

。联邦快递（FDX）：第四季度非美国通用会计准则每股盈利5.01美元，好于预期0.18美元; GAAP每股收益为7.56美元，坏于预期的11.50美元。营收为17.8亿美元（同比增长2.9％），低于预期5000万美元。展望未来，由于收入增加，FedEx Ground和FedEx Freight的营业收入预计将增加。在FedEx Express，宏观经济疲软和贸易不确定性下，持续混合转向低收益服务以及不续签客户合同的战略决策预计会对营业收入产生负面影响。 “我们的2020财年业绩受到全球贸易和工业生产持续疲软的负面影响，特别是在FedEx Express，”联邦快递首席财务官Alan Graf表示。 ---Seeking Alpha

。Wedbush将Roku的价格目标从65美元上调至105美元。 Wedbush表示Roku拥有“实质性”增长机会。 “Roku在其播放器的支持下建立了一个卓越的平台，随着它在快速增长的智能电视类别中的扩展，它已经成为OTT广告的最佳平台，并准备进行国际扩张。 “--- CNBC

。Wedbush将特斯拉（TSLA）的Q2单位交付预测从88K下调至84K，以反映其对需求的看法。 “我们仍然认为，围绕这个故事的最大悬念是特斯拉能够在2019年达到360k到40万单位的整体单位指导，因为这将成为需求趋势的有说服力的故事，因为特斯拉现在是一个'需求故事'而不是生产 故事，“分析师Dan Ives写道。 他认为特斯拉在年内达到275K Model 3的交付将被视为成功。Wedbush对特斯拉保持中性评级，目标价为230美元。 对特斯拉的一致卖方评级为持有。 ---Seeking Alpha

More Market Correction To Come 更大的市场调整即将到来

Fed Chair Powell is less than his recently dovish self. Signaling that they will "monitor," Powell added that "damage arises when policy bends to political interests" seemingly signaling a more hawkish bias than the market's greed requires. St.Louis Fed President Jim Bullard - and uber-dove - has apparently decide to distance himself from going 'full-Kashkari' (Minneapolis Fed chief Kashkari wants a 50bps cut) by noting while "it seems like a good time for an insurance rate-cut," the situation "doesn't call for 50bps." ---Zero Hedge


Talks by both Federal Reserve Chairman and St Louis Fed President are interpreted as hawkish by the market and the White House is indicating US-China trade talk agreement is not expected this week are causing the dumping of stocks by investors today. Weakness in top stocks FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG and MSFT pretty much guarantees more downside to come near term. Nasdaq Composite supports are its 50 day moving average at 7862 and 20 day moving average at 7761.

美联储主席鲍威尔不及他最近的鸽派自我。鲍威尔表示他们将“观察”情况，他表示，“当政策向政治利益倾斜时，损害就会出现”似乎表明了一种比市场贪婪要求更鹰派的偏向。鸽派圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁吉姆·布拉德（Jim Bullard）显然决定让自己远离“完全的卡什卡里”（明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长卡什卡里希望利率降低50个基点），并指出“现在是减息做保险的好时机”，但“情况”不要求50个基点。“ --- Zero Hedge



今天美联储主席和圣路易斯联储银行总裁的谈话被市场解释为鹰派及白宫表示美中贸易谈判预计本周也不会达成协议降低了投资者对股票的兴趣而导致股票被抛售。 FB，AMZN，AAPL，NFLX，GOOG和MSFT等龙头股的疲软可以说已保证了近期市场的下跌。纳斯达克综合指数支撑位为50天均线7862点和20天均线7761点。

Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 7:41AM : Dow -89，  S&P 500 -10.82， Nasdaq -48.51， Russell 2000 -1.34, WTI crude oil +0.38%，Gold+1.27%， US dollar index-0.03%, 10 Year Treasury yield 1.987%-0.039

Oversea markets: Shanghai-0.87%, Japan-0.43%, Hong Kong -1.15%, Germany-0.29%, UK+0.02%, France -0.04%.

Weak sectors: FXI,OIH, IYT, XLF, IGV, EEM  Strong sectors: GLD, IBB, TLT, GDXJ

Increasing tension in US-Iran relation, uncertainty in US-China trade talk and weak oversea markets are putting pressure on US stock market today. Weak FAANG stocks are not helping either. Major market indexes are down for the second day after S&P 500 made new high last Friday. Nasdaq Composite is the weakest among indexes today by down more than 0.60%. With FB-1.48%, GOOG -1.03% and AMZN -1.04% due to concern over antitrust probe and 22 out of 30 Dow stocks are down, it doesn't look like the market can recover today. More downside for the market is likely today.


。Trump administration ordered new sanctions against the assets of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several Iranian military commanders, as well as plans to target Foreign Minister Javad Zarif later this week. The penalties effectively freeze the business operations of the Supreme Leader's office, which controls a global network of private companies that some experts estimate is worth between $100B-$200B. Tensions already worsened in May, when Washington ordered all countries to halt imports of Iranian oil, and then escalated following a series of apparent Iranian-backed skirmishes in the Middle East. "Imposing useless sanctions is the permanent closure of the path of diplomacy," Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi wrote on Twitter. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Investors waiting anxiously to see if anything comes of Sino-U.S. trade talks later this week, with sentiment not helped after a senior U.S. official said president Donald Trump would be happy with “any outcome” from the trade talks with China, suggesting Trump was not in a concessionary mood. ---Zero Hedge

。On Monday a US judge found three large Chinese banks — reportedly the state-owned Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank — in contempt for refusing to comply with subpoenas in an investigation into North Korean sanctions violations. This could open the door for them to be cut off from the US financial system, i.e. SWIFT.

。"Should it occur, to say that China will not take that well is as large an understatement as one can conceive of. It would be an earthquake", commented Rabobank's Michael Every. ---Zero Hedge

。Powell takes the stage at 11 a.m. ET, just 24 hours after President Trump accused the central bank of behaving like a "stubborn child" in refusing to lower interest rates. The Fed Chair is likely to reiterate or intensify a recent dovish turn on interest rates - which has traders pricing in a 100% chance of a July reduction in the Fed Funds rate and a 73.3% chance of two more cuts between now and the end of the year - but there's also the possibility he could walk back some of the market's dovish interpretation of last week's FOMC meeting. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Alphabet(GOOG)A number of rivals are gearing up to help U.S. officials with an antitrust probe of the Google parent, according to The Wall Street Journal. Among them: TripAdvisor and Yelp, which have accused Google of favoring its own content in search results. ---CNBC

。Lennar(LEN)The home builder earned $1.30 per share for its second quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.14 a share. Revenue also came in above forecasts, although new orders were up just 1% from a year ago, while deliveries were up by 5%.---CNBC

。Tiffany(TIF) The luxury goods retailer was downgraded to “hold” from “buy” at Loop Capital Markets, which points to weak tourist traffic and difficulty in achieving comparable sales targets.---CNBC





太平洋时间上午7:41：道指-89，标普500  -  10.82，纳斯达克-48.51，罗素2000 -1.34，WTI原油+ 0.38％，黄金+ 1.27％，美元指数-0.03％，10年期国债收益率1.987％ - 0.039

海外市场：上海-0.87％，日本-0.43％，香港-1.15％，德国-0.29％，英国+ 0.02％，法国-0.04％。

弱势行业：FXI，OIH，IYT，XLF，IGV，EEM强势行业：GLD，IBB，TLT，GDXJ


美伊关系紧张局势加剧，美中贸易谈判的不确定，海外市场疲软给今天美国股市带来压力。 表现弱的FAANG股票也没有帮助。 上周五标准普尔500指数创新高后，主要市场指数连续第二天下跌。 今天纳斯达克综合指数是指数中最弱的，跌幅超过0.60％。 由于对反托拉斯调查的担忧导致FB-1.48％，GOOG -1.03％和AMZN -1.04％，以及道琼斯30只成分股中有22只下跌，看起来市场今天不容易恢复。 今天市场可能面临更多下行空间。

。特朗普政府下令对阿亚图拉阿里哈梅内伊和几名伊朗军事指挥官的资产实施新的制裁，以及本周晚些时候计划制裁外交部长扎瓦夫。这些处罚有效地冻结了最高领导办公室的业务运营，该办公室控制着一些专家估计价值在100亿至200亿美元之间的全球私营公司网络。 5月，当华盛顿下令所有国家停止伊朗石油进口，然后在中东发生一系列明显的伊朗支持的小规模冲突之后，紧张局势升级，紧张局势已经恶化。外交部发言人阿巴斯穆萨维在推特上写道：“实施无用的制裁是对外交道路的永久封闭”。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。投资者焦急地等待本周晚些时候中美贸易谈判是否有任何结果，一位美国高级官员表示，总统唐纳德特朗普会对与中国的贸易谈判的“任何结果”表示满意，这表明特朗普不是在一种让步的心情。 --- Zero Hedge

。周一，一名美国法官发现三家大型中资银行 - 据称是国有交通银行，招商银行和上海浦东发展银行 - 蔑视在调查朝鲜违反制裁措施时拒绝遵守传票。这可能会打开他们与美国金融系统（即SWIFT）切断的大门。Rabobank的Michael Every评论说：“如果发生这种情况，中国不会那么好受，就像人们可以想象的那样轻描淡写。这将是一场地震”。 --- Zero Hedge

。在特朗普总统指责中央银行在拒绝降低利率方面表现得像个“顽固的孩子”的24小时后，鲍威尔上午11点就开始登台演说。美联储主席可能会重申或加强近期温和的利率转变 - 炒家认为7月联邦基金利率下调的可能性为100％，而今年利率下调2次的可能性为73.3％。但也有可能他可以撤回一些市场对上周FOMC会议的温和看法。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。据“华尔街日报”报道，一些竞争对手正准备帮助美国官员对谷歌母公司进行反垄断调查。其中包括：TripAdvisor和Yelp，它们指责谷歌在搜索结果中偏爱自己的内容。 --- CNBC

。房屋建筑商Lennar（LEN）第二季度每股收益1.30美元，超过市场普遍预期的每股1.14美元。收入也高于预期，尽管新订单较一年前仅增长1％，而交付量增加了5％.--- CNBC

。奢侈品零售商蒂芙尼（TIF）被Loop Capital Markets从“买入”降级为“持有”，指出旅游交通疲弱，难以实现可比销售目标.--- CNBC

Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 7:44AM : Dow +47.50，  S&P 500 +2， Nasdaq -3.06， Russell 2000 -6.53, WTI crude oil unchanged，Gold+0.78%， US dollar index-0.09%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.038%-0.03

Oversea markets: Shanghai+0.21%, Japan+0.13%, Hong Kong +0.14%, Germany-0.49%, UK+0.23%, France -0.01%.

Weak sectors: IBB, PPH, XRT, FDN, IYT Strong sectors: XLFGDXJ, TLT, GLD, GDX, IYM

Major market indexes opened higher and have turned mix now. No influential news is driving the stock market today. S&P 500 is consolidating near its all time high with resistance at 2964. Both the Dow is up modestly and Nasdaq is down slightly and are 0.6% and 1.78% below their all time highs respectively. Meanwhile, the weakest index is Russell 2000. It is down 0.43% now and is 12.9% below its all time high. US stock market trend is up but is overbought and is facing resistance,  some downside action is likely near term while waiting for result from the meeting between Trump and xi later this week.



。China says its trade negotiators are talking to their U.S. counterparts on how to resolve disputes ahead of an expected meeting between their two heads of state at the G20 meeting in Japan later this week. Wang Shouwen, a Commerce Ministry vice minister, said Monday the sides were seeking to "consolidate the important consensus reached between the two leaders" in a telephone discussion last week. Wang gave no further details. ---Associated Press

。U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said Sunday Iran should not "mistake U.S. prudence and discretion for weakness," after the U.S. abruptly called off military strikes against Iran in response to the shooting down of an unmanned American surveillance drone. Bolton's tough message seemed to be aimed not only at Tehran, but also at reassuring key U.S. allies that the White House remains committed to maintaining pressure on Iran. Israel, along with Arab countries in the Gulf, considers Iran to be their greatest threat, and Trump's last-minute about face appears to have raised questions about U.S. willingness to use force against the Islamic Republic. ---Associated Press

。Along with the truly bizarre state of global interest rates, the rebounding crypto market is shaping up to be the largest finance-related story of 2019. On watch Thursday and Friday for re-crossing the $10K threshold, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) over the weekend not only blew through that level, but took out $11K as well, nearly tripling in price YTD. Alongside, Ether (ETH-USD) crossed over $300 for the first time in about a year. Others rallying include Litecoin (LTC-USD), Ripple (XRP-USD), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH-USD). Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is up 11.73% now.

。Lloyd Walmsley of Deutsche Bank: With the tech world going crazy over Facebook (FB) recently announcing its new cryptocurrency Libra, FB stock is responding in kind. Up double-digits this month, many are excited over the company’s new task of making a worldwide currency, which will be used by Facebook users to buy items on the platform and pay each other through Messenger. While crypto’s best came last year, there is still hope among many that it will eventually become mainstream. Facebook hopes to play a role in this, as the company’s massive platform will allow it to provide security and regulation. Walmsley has questions about the new coin, but overall, the analyst is maintaining his Buy rating on Facebook stock with $220 price target, which implies nearly 23% from current levels. ---Smarter Analyst

。RBC analyst Mitch Steves thinks the U.S. blacklisting of Chinese firm Sugon will ding Intel (NTC) more than rival AMD (AMD). RBC maintains Intel at Underperform with a $41 price target. AMD stays at Outperform and a $43 target. ---Seeking Alpha

。An analyst at Moffett Nathanson trimmed price target on the tech giant Alphabet's (GOOG) stock to $1,250 per share from $1,290 a share, citing a “growing lack of conviction that Google can maintain their historic 20%+ revenue growth.” ---CNBC

。An analyst at Wedbush upgraded Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN)to “outperform” from “neutral,” and raised his price target on the stock to $92 per share from $76 a share. The analyst said Dunkin’s same-store sales are at an inflection point “that is underappreciated by the Street. ---CNBC

。Jefferies upgraded  tractor maker Deere(DE) to “buy” from “hold,” noting that a “tightened global crop supply demand balance and positive momentum in farmer net income support double-digit large equipment growth through 2020. ---CNBC


太平洋时间早上7:44：道指+47.50，标准普尔500 +2，纳斯达克-3.06，罗素2000 -6.53，WTI原油不变，黄金+ 0.78％，美元指数-0.09％，10年期国债收益率2.038％-0.03

海外市场：上海+ 0.21％，日本+ 0.13％，香港+ 0.14％，德国-0.49％，英国+ 0.23％，法国-0.01％。

弱势行业：IBB，PPH，XRT，FDN，IYT  强势行业：XLFGDXJ，TLT，GLD，GDX，IYM


主要市场指数开盘走高，现已转为涨跌互见。 今天没有任何有影响力的消息推动股市。 标准普尔500指数正在历史高点附近整理，阻力位为2964。道琼斯指数小幅上涨，纳斯达克指数小幅下跌，分别低于历史高点0.6％和1.78％。 最弱的指数是罗素2000指数。现在下跌0.43％，比历史高点低12.9％。 美国股市走势向上，但超买并且面临阻力。在等待本周晚些时候的特习会的结果之前美股下行调整的机会大。

。中国表示，其贸易谈判代表正在与美国同行讨论如何在本周晚些时候在日本举行的G20会议上两国元首之间的预期会谈之前解决争端。商务部副部长王守文周一在电话讨论中表示双方正试图“巩固两国领导人达成的重要共识”。王没有提供进一步的细节。---美联社

。美国国家安全顾问约翰博尔顿周日表示，在美国突然取消对伊朗的军事打击以应对美国无人驾驶无人机的击落后，伊朗不应该“误解美国的谨慎和自由裁量权”。博尔顿的强硬信息似乎不仅针对德黑兰，而且还让美国主要盟友放心，白宫仍然致力于维持对伊朗的压力。以色列以及海湾地区的阿拉伯国家认为伊朗是他们最大的威胁，特朗普最后一刻的表情似乎引发了对美国对伊朗使用武力的意愿的质疑。---美联社

。随着真正离奇的全球利率状况，加密市场的反弹正在成为2019年最大的金融相关故事。在周四和周五重新审视10万美元的门槛后，比特币（BTC-USD）结束周末不仅吹响了这个水平，而且还走上了11,000美元，价格几乎是年初至今的三倍。此外，Ether（ETH-USD）在一年内首次超过300美元。其他上扬的加密货币包括Litecoin（LTC-USD），Ripple（XRP-USD）和Bitcoin Cash（BCH-USD）。灰度比特币信托（GBTC）目前上涨11.73％。---Wall Street Breakfast

。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的劳埃德•沃尔姆斯利（Lloyd Walmsley）：随着科技界最近为Facebook（FB）最近宣布其新的加密货币Libra 而疯狂，FB股票也正在做出回应。 本月上涨两位数，许多人对该公司制作全球货币的新任务感到兴奋，Facebook用户将使用该货币购买平台上的物品并通过Messenger互相支付。 虽然去年加密表现很好，但许多人仍然希望它最终会成为主流。 Facebook希望在这方面发挥作用，因为该公司庞大的平台将允许它提供安全和监管。 Walmsley对新货币有疑问，但总体而言，分析师维持对Facebook股票的买入评级，目标价为220美元，这意味着目前水平将近23％。 ---Smarter Analyst

。RBC分析师Mitch Steves认为，美国将中国公司曙光列入黑名单将使英特尔（NTC）的竞争力低于竞争对手AMD（AMD）。 RBC以41美元的价格目标维持英特尔的表现低于大市评级。 AMD保持在优于大市，目标价为43美元。 ---Seeking Alpha

。MoffettNathanson的一位分析师将科技巨头Alphabet（GOOG）的股价目标从每股1,290美元下调至每股1,250美元，理由是“人们越来越不相信谷歌可以保持其历史性的20％+营收增长。”--- CNBC

。Wedbush的一位分析师将Dunkin'Brands（DNKN）从“中立”调升至“跑赢大盘”，并将该股的目标股价从每股76美元上调至每股92美元。分析师表示，Dunkin的同店销售处于拐点，“这一点是被华尔街低估的。 --- CNBC

。Jefferies将拖拉机制造商Deere（DE）从“持有”升级为“买入”，并指出“全球农作物供应需求平衡收紧，农民净收入的积极势头支持到2020年实现两位数的大型设备增长。” -  CNBC

Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 7:30AM : Dow +25.90，  S&P 500 -2.65， Nasdaq -15.35， Russell 2000 -12.81, WTI crude oil+0.47%，Gold+0.37%， US dollar index-0.12%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.038%+0.037

Oversea markets: Shanghai+0.50%, Japan-0.95%, Hong Kong -0.27%, Germany-0.16%, UK-0.13%, France -0.13%.

Weak sectors: IYR, GDXJ, GDX, SLV, IBB, PPH, XRT Strong sectors: XLF

US stock market opened down after S&P 500 broke to all time high briefly yesterday. Small cap index Russell 2000 down the most by 0.82% is especially weak today compare with Dow +0.1%, S&P 500 -0.09% and Nasdaq Composite -0.19%. Since the S&P 500 is the only index that hit all time high yesterday, whether it can go and stay above yesterday's high (2958) today is important. After a strong V shape total recovery from last December low, S&P 500 is overbought. The strong performance of the US stock market has reflected most of the good news on US/China trade talk and interest rate cut.  In the face of escalating Iran tension and forth coming worrisome Q2 earnings, what is there to serve as catalyze to drive the market higher is the question. Technically, the sharp 100% recovery has a good chance for the index to form Double Top. US stock market needs rest and correction.

。The New York Times and WSJ report, citing a handful of senior officials, that the president was prepared to attack a number of Iranian targets, including radar and missile batteries. However, he eventually gave the word to stand down, with  the NYT reporting that Trump chose to pull US military forces back, though it isn't clear why. ---Zero Hedge

。U.S. gasoline prices move higher following an explosion and massive fire at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery, the largest gas refinery on the east coast. There are no known casualties at the complex, which employs ~1,000 people. The crude section at the Girard Point portion of the 335K bbl/day refinery reportedly was shut down due to the fire. ---Seeking Alpha

。Gold （GLD）has been on a monster run since the Federal Reserve hinted Wednesday that it could cut interest rates in the coming months. Analysts are generally upbeat on gold, which they see supported by worries about the global economy and trade and possible equity downturns. Citigroup analysts say the metal could reach between $1,500 to $1,600 an ounce in the next 12 months, and $1,500 by end-2019 in the most optimistic of their new predictions for the metal. ---Market Watch

。Baird lowers its Micron (MU) target from $32 to $28 while maintaining an Underperform rating. Analyst Tristan Gerra says DRAM and NAND inventories are currently about double the normal levels in the supply chain after Q/Q deterioration.Gerra thinks the NAND downturn could stretch "well into 2020." ---Seeking Alpha

。Canopy Growth (CGC): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -C$0.98 misses by C$0.66. Net revenue of C$94.1M (+312.5% Y/Y) beats by C$0.41M. ---Seeking Alpha

。Center for Consumer Freedom, launched an ad campaign alleging many plant-based meat products could include traces of toxic chemicals. Breanne Kincaid, the center’s research director, told CNBC’s “Fast Money” Thursday that some plant-based meat products are exposed to a chemical called Hexane when it is being processed. The group doesn’t know if the chemical is used in Beyond Meat’s (BYND)product. ---CNBC

Jefferies cut Tesla (TSLA) price target to $300 a share from $400, compared with an average of $270.4 among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The shares are down 34% year-to-date, closing at $219.6 on Thursday. Meanwhile, R.W. Baird, another broker with a buy rating on Tesla, on Friday raised its price target to $355 a share from $340, saying it expects the stock to react positively to quarterly delivery numbers in the first week of July given current low expectations. ---Bloomberg

Long-time critic of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), analyst Dick Bove of Odeon Capital Group upgrades the bank to buy from hold as it dominates corporate dealmaking and improves its asset management business. ---Seeking Alpha

太平洋时间早上7:30：道指+ 25.90，标普500  -  6.55，纳斯达克-15.35，罗素2000 -12.81，WTI原油+ 0.47％，黄金+ 0.37％，美元指数 -  0.12％，10年期国债收益率2.038％+ 0.037

海外市场：上海+ 0.50％，日本-0.95％，香港-0.27％，德国-0.16％，英国-0.13％，法国-0.13％。

弱势领域：IYR，GDXJ，GDX，SLV，IBB，PPH，XRT强势领域：XLF

昨天标准普尔500指数突破历史新高之后，美国股市今早开盘下跌。小型股指数罗素2000指数今日特别疲弱，下跌0.82％，道指+ 0.1％，标准普尔500 -0.09％和纳斯达克综合指数-0.19％。由于标准普尔500指数昨日是创建新高的唯一指数，因此它今天是否能够保持在昨天的高点（2958点）之上是非常重要的。经过自去年12月低点的强劲V形复苏后，标准普尔500指数处于超买状态。美国股市的强劲表现已反映了美中贸易谈判和降息的大部分好消息。而面对不断升级的伊朗紧张局势以及即将到来令人担忧的第二季度财报，有什么可以作为催化剂推动市场走高是个问题。从技术上讲，急剧的100％复苏很可能使指数形成双顶。美国股市需要休整和修正。

。“纽约时报”和“华尔街日报”援引少数几位高级官员的报道说，总统准备袭击伊朗的一些目标，包括雷达和导弹电池。然而，他终于选择不采取行动。纽约时报报道特朗普选择撤回美国军队，但目前尚不清楚原因。 --- Zero Hedge

。美国汽油价格在费城能源解决方案炼油厂（东海岸最大的天然气炼油厂）发生爆炸和大火之后走高。该建筑群雇用约1,000人但没有人员伤亡。据报道，每日生产335K桶原油的炼油厂Girard Point的原油部分因火灾而关闭。 ---Seeking Alpha

。自美联储周三暗示可能在未来几个月内降息以来，黄金一直在疯狂上涨。花旗集团分析师普遍对黄金持乐观态度，他们认为受到对全球经济和贸易以及可能出现的股市下滑的担忧支撑。分析师称，未来12个月该金属价格可能在1,500美元至1,600美元之间，而2019年底金价可能达到1,500美元。这是他们对该金属的新预测中最为乐观的。 ---Market Watch

。Baird将其美光（MU）目标价从32美元下调至28美元，同时维持在跑输大盘评级。分析师特里斯坦杰拉表示，在季对季恶化之后，DRAM和NAND库存目前大约是供应链正常水平的两倍. Gerra认为NAND衰退可能“延伸到2020年”。 ---Seeking Alpha

。Canopy（CGC）：第四季度非GAAP每股盈利-0.98加元低于预期0.66加元。净收入为9410万加元（同比增长312.5％），达到0.41亿加元。 ---Seeking Alpha

。消费者自由中心发起了一项广告宣传活动，宣称许多植物性肉类产品可能含有微量有毒化学物质。该中心的研究主管Breanne Kincaid周四告诉CNBC的“Fast Money”，一些植物性肉制品在加工时会接触到名为己烷的化学物质。该集团不知道该化学品是否用于Beyond Meat（BYND）产品。 --- CNBC

。Jefferies下调Tesla（TSLA）目标价至每股$ 300从$ 400而彭博社调查的分析师们平均为目标价则为$ 270.4。该股今年迄今下跌34％，周四收于219.6美元。与此同时，将特斯拉平为买入评级的另一家经纪商R.W.Bird周五将其目标价格从340美元上调至每股355美元，并表示预计该股将在7月第一周对季度交割数据作出积极反应，而目前的预期较低。 ---彭博

。长期以来一直批评高盛（GS）的 Odeon Capital Group的分析师Dick Bove将GS升级为买入，因为它主导了公司交易，并改善了其资产管理业务。 ---Seeking Alpha

Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 8:10AM : Dow +58.60，  S&P 500 +7.97， Nasdaq +61， Russell 2000 +9.10,WTI crude oil-0.23%，Gold-0.17%， US dollar index-0.17%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.103%+0.01

Oversea markets: Shanghai+0.20%, Japan+0.03%, Hong Kong +0.40%, Germany-0.03%, UK+0.17%, France +0.59%.

Weak sectors: IYT, GDX Strong sectors: IBB, OIH, FXI, FDN, XRT, IYR

Expecting Federal Reserve to be dovish this Wednesday, US stock market opened up and is holding gains. Strong internet, energy and biotech sectors also buoy market. Bullish narrow consolidations among major market indexes in the last few trading sessions are healthy. Both the Dow and S&P 500 holding above their 50 day moving averages are providing bullish technical set up. US stock market is looking up.

。Central banks are set to steal the limelight on the coming sessions, and Markets will have to prepare themselves for a packed week of events next week, headlined by the Fed meeting. Additionally, the BoE and BoJ will also meet. Markets are now pricing in virtually a full rate cut at the July meeting and a further 2 cuts over the next 12 months, all eyes will be on to what extent Powell endorses market pricing now in light of recent soft inflation and rising downside risks to the US economy from trade tensions. Expectations are much lower for a cut next week, with around a 30% chance. ---Zero Hedge

。Iran certainly isn't planning on backing down in the face of Washington's accusations about the country's role in last week's tanker bombings, and as a result, the possibility of a boots-on-the-ground military conflict in the Islamic Republic cannot yet be ruled out. Making an already tense situation infinitely more precarious, Iran on Monday reminded the world that it's preparing to violate the terms of the Iran deal during the next ten days.---Zero Hedge

。The recent surge in bitcoin, and the entire cryptocurrency space accelerated over the weekend, coinciding with the latest massive protest in Hong Kong which may be among the catalysts for the aggressive buying, and sending bitcoin above $9,000 for the first time since May 10, 2018, a price that is almost triple where bitcoin traded at the start of the year, making it the best performing major asset class of 2019, with a market cap of $163 billion. The recent surge in bitcoin, and the entire cryptocurrency space accelerated over the weekend, coinciding with the latest massive protest in Hong Kong which may be among the catalysts for the aggressive buying, and sending bitcoin above $9,000 for the first time since May 10, 2018, a price that is almost triple where bitcoin traded at the start of the year, making it the best performing major asset class of 2019, with a market cap of $163 billion. Related symbol GBTC.---Zero Hedge

。Alibaba (BABA) is proposing a one-to-eight stock split ahead of its proposed Hong Kong secondary listing later this year, according to an SEC filing. The proposal, which will increase flexibility in the firm’s capital raising activities, will be discussed and put to a vote at Alibaba's annual general meeting in Hong Kong on July 15.---Seeking Alpha

。Bernstein lowers its Baidu (BIDU) target from $180 to $130 and maintains a Market Perform. The firm says the "heavy investment in feed is value destructive" and Baidu "should stick with the core business in search going forward." Bernstein says Baidu still has a "dominant position in search and a strong balance sheet." ---Seeking Alpha






太平洋时间上午8:10：道指+58.60，标准普尔500 +7.97，纳斯达克+61，罗素2000 + 9.10，WTI原油-0.23％，黄金-0.17％，美元指数-0.17％，10年期国债收益率2.103％+0.01

海外市场：上海+ 0.20％，日本+ 0.03％，香港+ 0.40％，德国-0.03％，英国+ 0.17％，法国+ 0.59％。

弱势行业：IYT，GDX强势行业：IBB，OIH，FXI，FDN，XRT，IYR


预期本周三美联储将保持温和态度，美国股市高开并保持涨幅。 强势的互联网，能源和生物技术行业也为市场提供了支撑。 在过去几个交易日中，主要市场指数之间的看涨窄幅整合对市场也是健康的。 道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数均维持在50日移动均线上方，这提供了看涨的技术面。 美国股市正在抬头或会开始一波升幅。

。中央银行将在即将到来的交易日中成为众人瞩目的焦点，市场将不得不为本周的一系列活动做好准备，以美联储会议为主要关注。此外，英国央行和日本央行也将举行会议。美国经济因贸易紧张局势，近期疲软的通胀和下行风险已上升，目前市场在7月会议上几乎已被认定会降息，未来12个月又会进行了2次降息。所有目光都将关注鲍威尔现在在多大程度上支持市场的已在这方面的反映。本周减息大约有30％的可能性。 --- Zero Hedge

。面对华盛顿关于该国在上周油轮爆炸事件中的作用的指责，伊朗当然不打算退缩，伊朗伊斯兰共和国发动军事冲突的可能性还是有的。排除。伊朗周一提醒全世界，它正准备在未来十天内将违反伊朗协议的条款。---Zero Hedge

。最近比特币的价位的激增以及整个加密货币周末的加速上升，恰逢香港最近的大规模抗议活动，这可能是激进购买的催化剂之一。比特币自2018年5月10日以来首次超过9,000美元，现在比特币价格几乎是是今年年初交易价格的三倍，使其成为2019年表现最佳的主要资产类别，市值达到1630亿美元。有关的代号GBTC --- Zero Hedge

。根据美国证券交易委员会的一份文件显示，阿里巴巴（BABA）提议在今年晚些时候在香港二级上市前进行一对八股票拆分。该提议将增加公司筹资活动的灵活性，将于7月15日在阿里巴巴香港年度股东大会上进行讨论并付诸表决.---Seeking Alpha

伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）将其百度（BIDU）目标从180美元降至130美元并保持市场表现评级。该公司表示，“对饲料的大量投资具有破坏性价值”，百度“应继续坚持核心业务。”伯恩斯坦表示，百度仍然具有“搜索的主导地位和强大的资产负债表”。 ---Seeking Alpha

Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 8:03AM : Dow -48.70，  S&P 500 -6.83， Nasdaq -40.86， Russell 2000 -8.66,WTI crude oil＋0.15%，Gold+0.52%， US dollar index+0.34%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.08%-0.11

Oversea markets: Shanghai-0.99%, Japan+0.40%, Hong Kong -0.65%, Germany-0.71%, UK-0.35%, France-0.33%.

Weak sectors: SMH, OIH, EWG, IYT, IGV, EEM Strong sectors: GDXJ, GDX, GLD

Broadcom's warning of semiconductor slow down and weak China Industrial Production drove US stocks open down sharply. However, CME Fed tool projecting over 80% interest rate cut in July is encouraging buying the dip. Major US stock indexes are bouncing off the morning low with Dow Jones Industrial Average is leading the bounce. Recently, the stock market has been resilient to bad news, as interest rate stay near all time low, institutions have no choice but to buy stocks. Don't fight interest rate trend is the motto now. By this point of view, US stock market is supported and may not have much downside to go.

。Industrial production in China rose 5% last month on a year-over-year basis, the slowest pace of growth in 17 years. Chinese shares fell overnight following the data release. The Shanghai Composite lost 1% while the Shenzhen A Shares index slid 1.8%.---CNBC

。Broadcom (AVGO): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $5.21 beats by $0.03; GAAP EPS of $1.64 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $5.52B (+10.0% Y/Y) misses by $180M. Geopolitical uncertainties and export restrictions on a large customer are tamping down demand, CEO Hock Tan says. "As a result, our customers are actively reducing their inventory levels, and we are taking a conservative stance for the rest of the year."  For fiscal 2019 (ending Nov. 3), it's now guiding to net revenue of $22.5B (light of consensus for $24.33B), and a non-GAAP operating margin of 52.5%. Capex is seen at about $500M. ---Seeking Alpha

。May Industrial Production: +0.4% to 109.6 +0.2% consensus, -0.4% prior (revised). Capacity Utilization 78.1% vs. 78.0% consensus, 77.9% prior (revised). ---Seeking Alpha

。Headline Retail Sales (Advance) rose 0.5% MoM in May (below +0.6% MoM expectations) but April's -0.2% initial print was revised up to +0.3% MoM. However, on a year-over-year basis, headline retail sales growth has slowed to +3.2%. ---Zero Hedge

。U.S. economic adviser Larry Kudlow is the latest to warn of consequences if Chinese President Xi Jinping refuses invitations for trade talks, as Beijing hiked anti-dumping duties on certain U.S. and EU-made alloy-steel tubes and pipes. Former PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan also issued a warning about a possible yuan devaluation, while the Chinese government has faced much criticism for its response to the mass protests in Hong Kong. If things couldn't get worse, Xi said overnight he would promote steady development ties with Iran "no matter how the situation changes," against the backdrop of yesterday's tanker attacks in the Gulf. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Facebook(FB)has gotten backing from more than a dozen companies – including Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, and Uber – for a new cryptocurrency. That’s according to The Wall Street Journal, which said the new currency will be unveiled next week and launch next year. ---CNBC





太平洋时间上午8:08：道指-48.70，标准普尔500 -6.83，纳斯达克-40.86，罗素2000 -8.66，WTI原油+ 0.15％，黄金+ 0.52％，美元指数+ 0.34％，10年期国债收益率2.08％ - 0.11

海外市场：上海-0.99％，日本+ 0.40％，香港-0.65％，德国-0.71％，英国-0.35％，法国-0.33％。

弱势行业：SMH，OIH，EWG，IYT，IGV，EEM  强势行业：GDXJ，GDX，GLD


Broadcom CEO警告半导体放缓和中国工业生产疲软推动美国股市大幅低开。 然而，芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示7月份降息机率为80％以上正在鼓励逢低买入股票。由道琼斯工业平均指数带动，美国主要股指从早盘低点反弹。 最近，股市一直抵御坏消息，随着利率保持在历史低位附近，机构别无选择，只能购买股票。 不与利率趋势做对是现在做股票的座右铭。 从这个角度来看，美国股市有支撑，可能没有很大下行空间。

。上个月中国工业生产同比增长5％，是17年来增长最慢的一年。数据公布后，中国股市隔夜下挫。上证综合指数下跌1％，而深圳A股指数下跌1.8％.--- CNBC

。Broadcom（AVGO）：第二季度非GAAP每股盈利5.21美元，好于预期0.03美元; GAAP每股盈利1.64美元，每股收益0.07美元。营收为5.52亿美元（同比增长10.0％），低于预期1.8亿美元。首席执行官Hock Tan表示，对大客户的地缘政治不确定性和出口限制正在遏制需求。 “因此，我们的客户正在积极降低库存水平，我们在今年剩余时间将采取保守立场。”对于2019财年（截至11月3日），指引净收入为225亿美元（市场预期为243.3亿美元），非美国通用会计准则营业利润率为52.5％。资本支出约为5亿美元。 ---Seeking Alpha

。5月工业生产：+ 0.4％至109.6 高于+ 0.2％的共识，-0.4％之前（经修订）。产能利用率为78.1％，而市场共识为78.0％，之前为77.9％（经订版）。---Seeking Alpha

。5​​月零售销售（Advance）环比上涨0.5％（低于+ 0.6％预期），但4月-0.2％的初始预期环比上修至增长0.3％。然而，与去年同期相比，整体零售额增长放缓至+ 3.2％。 --- Zero Hedge

。美国经济顾问拉里·库德洛（Larry Kudlow）最近会发出警告，如果中国国家主席习近平拒绝接受贸易谈判邀请，那就要接受后果。北京开始对某些美国和欧盟制造的合金钢管和管道征收反倾销税。中国人民银行行长周小川也发布了人民币可能出现贬值的警告，而中国政府因应对香港的大规模抗议活动而面临许多批评。在昨天的海湾油轮袭击的背景下，习近平说“无论情况如何变化”，也会促进与伊朗的稳定发展关系。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。隔夜黄金价格连续第四周上涨，上涨1.2％至1,359.50美元，为自2018年4月以来首次突破关键的1,350美元水平。---Seeking Alpha

。Facebook（FB）新的加密货币已获得十几家公司的支持 - 包括Visa(V)，Mastercard(MA)，PayPal(PYPL)和Uber (UBER)。据“华尔街日报”报道称，新货币将于下周公布并于明年推出。 --- CNBC

Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 8:03AM : Dow +31.70，  S&P 500 +7.14， Nasdaq +36.95， Russell 2000 +10.05,WTI crude oil＋3.23%，Gold+0.24%， US dollar index+0.06%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.107%-0.02

Oversea markets: Shanghai+0.05%, Japan-0.46%, Hong Kong -0.05%, Germany+0.42%, UK-0.06%, France+0.05%.

Weak sectors: SOCL, PPH Strong sectors: XLY, XRT, FXI, SMH

Dow opened higher and at one point rose 149 points only to see it dropped back to only up about 32 points now . This is a rather big retracement and deserves caution. Dow's 50 day moving average support 25998 should be watched carefully to see whether this level will be broken.  At its high today, the Nasdaq Composite was 11 points away from testing its 50 day moving average but has now falling back and is still below this critical resistance. Besides two oil tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman which pushed oil price higher there is no other moving news so far. The stock market is more likely turning weak later today.

。Just hours ago, oil prices were flashing red as they neared the $50 level, but overnight attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman have sparked a sudden turnaround. An oil tanker owned by Norway's Frontline (FRO) was struck by a torpedo, according to shipping newspaper Tradewinds. The second ship has been identified as the Kokuka Courageous, managed by BSM Ship Management.The incident comes one month after four tankers were sabotaged in the Gulf of Oman off the UAE port of Fujairah, in an attack the U.S. linked to Iran. ---Seeking Alpha

。Morgan Stanley raised his price target on Disney (DIS) to $160 per share from $135. The analyst cited the company’s new streaming service, noting it could give its global subscriber numbers a boost.
---CNBC

。Tyson Foods (TSN) says it will introduce a new plant-based brand called Raised and Rooted. The brand will launch initially this summer by selling nuggets made out of pea protein instead of chicken. A blended burger product made with Angus beef and pea protein isolate is expected to be sold this fall. "We remain firmly committed to our growing traditional meat business and expect to be a market leader in alternative protein, which is experiencing double-digit growth and could someday be a billion-dollar business for our company," states CEO Noel White.Tyson sold its stake in Beyond Meat (BYND) before that company's IPO and share price rocket ride.---Seeking Alpha

。Target (TGT) is bringing its same-day delivery option to the masses, leveraging Shipt, a platform it acquired for $550M in 2017. Instead of a $99 annual membership, shoppers in 47 states across the country will have the option to get online items delivered the same day by paying a flat fee of $9.99 per order. It's the latest move in an ongoing and heated delivery war. Both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) recently announced next-day delivery options, with Walmart promising to reach roughly 75% of American consumers by the end of 2019. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Lululemon(LULU)reported quarterly profit of 74 cents per share, 4 cents a share above estimates. The athletic apparel maker’s revenue also came in well above forecasts. Comparable-store sales jumped 16% compared to a consensus estimate of 11.6%. The company also raised its full-year forecast.---CNBC

。 Evercore initiated coverage on both ride-sharing companies Uber and  Lyft with “outperform” ratings, based on a favorable view of the industry and the idea that there will be high correlation between the performance of the two stocks.---CNBC

 。Wedbush upgraded  home builder Lennar(LEN)to “outperform” from “neutral” based on mortgage rates at 2-year lows as well as a rebound in western markets. ---CNBC





太平洋时间上午8:03：道指+31.70，标普500 +7.14，纳斯达克+36.95，罗素2000 + 10.05，WTI原油+ 3.23％，黄金+ 0.24％，美元指数+ 0。06％，10年期国债收益率2.107％ - 0.02

海外市场：上海+ 0.05％，日本-0.46％，香港-0.05％，德国+ 0.42％，英国-0.06％，法国+ 0.05％。

弱势行业：SOCL，PPH强势行业：XLY，XRT，FXI，SMH


道琼斯指数开盘走高，一度上涨149点，但现在回落至仅上涨约32点。 这是一个相当大的回撤，值得谨慎。 应该仔细关注道琼斯50日移动平均线25998的支撑位会否被向下击穿。 在今天的高点，纳斯达克综合指数距离测试其50日移动平均线仅11点，但现在已经回落并且仍然低于这一关键阻力位。 除了在阿曼湾遭到袭击的两艘油轮推高油价之外，到目前为止还没有其他具影响力的消息。 股市很可能在今天晚些时候变弱。


。阿曼湾的两艘油轮遭到袭击，油价在接近50美元水平时突然飙升。 根据航运报纸Tradewinds的说法，挪威前线（FRO）拥有的一艘油轮被鱼雷击中。 第二艘船被确定为由BSM船舶管理公司管理的Kokuka Courageous。事件发生在阿联酋港口富查伊拉的阿曼湾，一个月前四艘油轮遭到破坏后，美国称与伊朗有联系。 ---Seeking Alpha

。摩根士丹利将迪士尼（DIS）的目标股价从135美元上调至每股160美元。该分析师引用该公司的新流媒体服务，并指出它可以提升其全球用户数量。
--- CNBC

。Tyson Foods（TSN）表示，它将推出一个名为Raised and Rooted的新工厂品牌。该品牌最初将于今年夏天推出，销售由豌豆蛋白而不是鸡肉制成的鸡块。用安格斯牛肉和豌豆蛋白分离物制成的混合汉堡产品预计将于今年秋季出售。首席执行官Noel White表示 “我们仍然坚定地致力于我们不断发展的传统肉类业务，并期望成为替代蛋白质的市场领导者，其正在经历两位数的增长，并且有朝一日能成为我们公司的十亿美元业务”。Tyson已售出在Beyond Meat（BYND）首次公开募股和股价大升之前的股份.---Seeking Alpha

。Target（TGT）利用Shipt （它在2017年以5.5亿美元的价格收购了平台）为大众带来当天的交付选择而不是每年99美元的会员资格。全国47个州的购物者可以选择上网通过支付每份订单9.99美元的固定费用在同一天交付物品。这是持续和激烈的交付战争的最新举措。沃尔玛（WMT）和亚马逊（AMZN）最近宣布了第二天的交付选项，沃尔玛承诺到2019年底将达到约75％的美国消费者。---Wall Street Breakfast

。Lululemon（LULU）报告季度每股盈利74美分，高于预期4美分。该运动服装制造商的收入也高于预期。可比店面销售额增长16％，而市场普遍预期为11.6％。该公司还提高了全年预测。--- CNBC

。 Evercore根据对该行业的良好看法以及两只股票的表现之间存在高度相关性的想法，对优步和Lyft的乘坐共享公司进行了“优于大盘”的评级.--- CNBC

。 Wedbush根据2年低点的抵押贷款利率以及西方市场的反弹将房屋建筑商Lennar（LEN）从“中性”升级为“跑赢大盘”。 --- CNBC

Morning Market News Digest And Comments 早盘市场新闻及评论

Pacific Time 7:48AM : Dow -22，  S&P 500 -4.32， Nasdaq -33.20， Russell 2000 -6.17,WTI crude oil-2.12%，Gold+0.44%， US dollar index+0.08%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.134%-0.009

Oversea markets: Shanghai-0.56%, Japan-0.35%, Hong Kong -1.73%, Germany-0.33%, UK-0.59%, France-0.66%.

Weak sectors: SMH, SOCL, XRT  Strong sectors: GDXJ, GDX, SLV

US stocks opened lower, bounced and are now trend back down again. Yesterday's weak close, oil stocks down big as oil price continue to drop and weakness in semiconductor sector after analyst downgraded Lam Research (LRCX) all are bearish for the market. The Nasdaq Composite is staying below its 50 day moving average after dropping below it yesterday. Both the Dow and S&P 500 are on the verge of breaking below their 50 day moving averages. Stock market looks finished bouncing and likely turning back to the downside. The Nasdaq Composite will be pacing the market with downside supports at its 20 day moving average at 7672 and 200 day moving average at 7517.



。May Consumer Price Index: +0.1% vs. in-line with consensus, +0.3% prior. Core CPI +0.1% vs. +0.2% consensus, +0.1% prior. ---Seeking Alpha

。A former top trade advisor to President Donald Trump says he thinks the U.S. will emerge from its lengthy negotiations with China with a deal — but it won’t happen at the G-20 summit at the end of this month. Willems, who was the deputy director of the National Economic Council and who played key negotiating roles in past multilateral summits, said that the high-profile summit in Osaka, Japan, could be the catalyst for closing a deal with Beijing. Trump expects to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at that summit, and he told CNBC on Monday that he would slap new tariffs on Chinese goods if Xi does not attend. ---CNBC

。“While the Fed may eventually be forced to support growth, especially if the ongoing trade dispute with China inflicts lasting damage on capital spending and employment, we don’t expect a rate cut soon,” says Mark Haefele, UBS’ global chief investment officer. UBS believes recent economic data has been “mixed,” rather than weak, which don’t warrant an easing of monetary policy anytime soon. The bank cited unemployment rate “at a multi-decade low of 3.6%,” “robust demand for workers” and high consumer confidence. ---CNBC

。BP said in its annual energy statistical review released Tuesday that the oil market’s "rollercoaster" would run for some time to come, with slowing economic expansion possibly impacting demand.
API Inventory report: Crude +4.85mm (-1.0mm exp), Cushing +2.4mm (+1.97mm exp), Gasoline +830k (+700k exp), Distillates-3.5mm (+1.1mm exp). --- Zero Hedge

。Tesla‘s (TSLA)Elon Musk said at the company’s shareholder meeting “ I want to make clear there’s not a demand problem. Sales have far exceeded production and production has been pretty good,”  adding that Model 3 sales have far outstripped the sales of its main competitors, both in units and in dollar amount. The company has a “decent shot a record quarter” in terms of sales and production, and most of its orders are coming from new customers, Musk said. ---Market Watch

。The FTC has asked District Judge Lucy Koh to deny Qualcomm's (QCOM) request to delay enforcement of an antitrust ruling handed down in May, announcing that it was in the public interest because an appeal could take years. LG Electronics (LGEAF) reiterated the view of the FTC, saying it could be forced into signing another unfair deal unless Koh's protections remain in place.---Seeking Alpha

。Apple (AAPL) is in talks to buy a key modem unit at Intel (INTC), in what could spur internal plans for modem development, The Information reports. Intel is considering selling its modem business in parts, and the report notes Apple is in discussions to buy the German operations -- the foundation of Intel's business because of its acquisition of Infineon's modem operations there. Any deal would mean hundreds of modem engineers flowing to Apple, the report notes. ---Seeking alpha

。Beyond Meat (BYND) gains after Tim Hortons announces that Beyond Meat Breakfast Sandwiches are now available at almost 4K Tim Hortons restaurants in Canada after a strong consumer response to testing. （Bernstein downgraded BYND this morning.) ---Seeking Alpha

。Evercore downgrades Lam Research (LRCX) from Outperform to In-Line and cuts the target from $225 to $195. The firm sees the memory recovery as pushed back to H2 2020. ---Seeking Alpha






太平洋时间上午7:48：道指-22，标准普尔500 -4.32，纳斯达克-33.20，罗素2000 -6.17，WTI原油-2.12％，黄金+ 0.44％，美元指数+ 0.08％，10年期国债收益率2.134％ - 0.009

海外市场：上海-0.56％，日本-0.35％，香港-1.73％，德国-0.33％，英国-0.59％，法-0.66％。

弱势行业：SMH，SOCL，XRT 强势行业：GDXJ，GDX，SLV


美股开盘走低，反弹，现在又回落。昨日收盘的疲软，原油价格继续下跌负面冲击油股以及 分析师下调Lam Research（LRCX）评级导致半导体板块下跌均对市场利空。纳斯达克综合指数在昨天跌破该50日移动均线（7860）后今日还是维持于该水平之下。道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数也即将跌穿50日移动均线。股市看起来已经完成反弹，转向下行的机会大。纳斯达克综合指数将引领市场下跌。纳指的下行支撑是20日均线7672和200日均线7517。


。5月份消费者价格指数：+ 0.1％，与市场预期一致，四月+ 0.3％。核心CPI + 0.1％对比+ 0.2％的预期，四月+ 0.1％。 ---Seeking Alpha

。唐纳德特朗普总统的前任首席贸易顾问表示，他认为美国将与中国进行冗长的谈判，而妥协不会发生在本月底的20国集团峰会上。威廉姆斯是国家经济委员会的副主任，曾在过去的多边峰会中担任重要的谈判角色，他表示，日本大阪举行的备受瞩目的峰会可能成为与北京达成协议的催化剂。特朗普希望在那次峰会上会见中国国家主席习近平，他周一告诉CNBC，如果习近平不出席，他将对中国商品征收新的关税。 --- CNBC

。“尽管美联储可能最终被迫支持经济增长，特别是如果与中国的持续贸易争端对资本支出和就业造成持续损害，我们预计不会很快降息，”瑞银全球首席投资官马克•海菲尔表示。瑞银认为近期的经济数据“喜忧参半”，而不是疲软，这并不能保证很快就会放松货币政策。该银行将失业率称为“处于3.6％的数十年低点”，“对工人的强劲需求”和高消费者信心是不减息的两个原因。 --- CNBC

。英国石油公司在其周二公布的年度能源统计评估中称，石油市场的“过山车”将持续一段时间，经济增长放缓可能影响需求。API库存报告：原油+ 4.85mm（-1.0mm exp），Cushing + 2.4mm（+ 1.97mm exp），汽油+ 830k（+ 700k exp），馏分-3.5mm（+ 1.1mm exp）。 --- Zero Hedge

。特斯拉（TSLA）总裁埃隆马斯克在公司股东大会上表示，“我想明确表示不存在需求问题。销售额远远超过了产量和产量一直很好，“并补充说，模型3的销售额远远超过其主要竞争对手的销售额，无论是单位还是金额。马斯克说，该公司在销售和生产方面正处于“创纪录的季度”，其大部分订单来自新客户。 ---Market Watch

。美国联邦贸易委员会要求地区法官Lucy Koh拒绝高通公司（QCOM）要求延迟执行5月份发布的反托拉斯裁决，并宣布这符合公共利益，因为上诉可能需要数年时间。 LG电子（LGEAF）重申FTC的观点，称可能会被迫签署另一项不公平协议，除非Koh的保护措施仍然存在。---Seeking Alpha

。据英国“金融时报”报道，苹果公司（AAPL）正在洽谈向英特尔（INTC）购买一个关键的调制解调器单元，这可能刺激内部的调制解调器开发计划。英特尔正在考虑部分销售其调制解调器业务。该报告指出，苹果正在讨论收购德国业务 - 这是英特尔业务的基础，因为该公司收购了Infineon的调制解调器业务。报告指出，任何交易都意味着数百名调制解调器工程师流向苹果。 ---Seeking Alpha

。Beyond（BYND）股价上升。Tim Hortons宣布，在消费者对测试做出强烈响应后，加拿大近乎4000家的Tim Hortons餐厅现已推出Beyond 三文治早餐。(今早Bernstein 调低BYND评级） ---Seeking Alpha

。Evercore将Lam Research（LRCX）的评级从优于大盘下调至语大盘同步，并将目标价从225美元下调至195美元。 该公司将存储器的恢复视为推迟到2020年下半年。---Seeking Alpha