Followings are trade talk related news:
。The "worst case" trade war scenario was avoided in Osaka on Saturday when Trump agreed to restart trade talks with Xi, holding off new tariffs on Chinese exports, and signaling a pause in the trade hostilities between the world’s two largest economies; Trump added that while existing tariffs would remain in place the US president eased restrictions on Huawei as part of what is now the second ceasefire between the two superpowers in two months, removing an immediate threat looming over the global economy even as a lasting peace remains elusive. ---Seeking Alpha
。U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that while his meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping was far better than expected, he was “in no hurry” to cut a trade deal. Trump also said he would not increase existing tariffs to China. “I am in no hurry, but things look very good,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter, referring to ongoing talks between Washington and Beijing. “The quality of the transaction is far more important to me than speed.” ---Reuters
。China and the United States will face a long road before they can reach a deal to end their bitter trade war, with more fights ahead likely, Chinese state media said after the two countries’ presidents held ice-breaking talks in Japan. ---Reuters
。The following are digest of what analysts are thinking from Bloomberg:
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, senior macro strategist at NatWest Markets in Singapore: “Investor sentiment is set to be buoyed in the week ahead by a truce in the U.S.-China trade war.”
Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets in Bangkok:
The “reset button” being hit on trade talks was the markets’ base-case scenario, and this is supportive for risk, but the lack of a timeline for progress may cap “bullish topside ambitions.”
Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ in Hong Kong:“Today’s outcome, similar to last December’s, still does not convince us that the trade tensions have been resolved. China and the US have not made any progress on key issues, namely, intellectual property rights and technology transfer.”
Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Financial in Melbourne:“I can’t see this meeting doing risk assets any harm, but there is still a lot of work to do to convince central banks they don’t need to act to keep the economic expansion in check.”“A few weak shorts may look to close out on Monday” given the tariff reprieve, prospects for negotiations to restart and that both sides “actually appear more united than expected.”
Alfonso Esparza, senior market analyst at Oanda in Toronto:“Everybody played their part without any additional drama and until more details emerge we are back at square one.”
Jean-Charles Sambor, deputy of head of emerging-market fixed income at BNP Paribas Asset Management in London: “This is of course good. Investors have been generally negative on both the probability of a meeting and the probability of a positive outcome following this meeting.”
Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 currency research at Credit Agricole:The implication is that further easing of U.S. conditions stemming from stock-market optimism following the G-20 summit "should reduce the need for imminent Fed rate cut in July." This makes the upcoming U.S. payrolls and ISM data “very important" to the near-term rates outlook.
David Page, senior economist at AXA Investment Managers:The lack of detail elevates uncertainty "as markets reflect on the similarity to last November’s situation". No escalation in the trade war "reduces the likelihood of a sharp Fed cutting cycle." Page maintains his view of two cuts in 2019, starting in September.
特朗普-习近平会议已结束，美中贸易谈判宣布重启，股市将如何走法？在两国达成休战之前，美国股市已一直在上涨，很多好消息看来已经被反映了。现在结果真的如预期一样，股市周一早上可能会出现由卖空回补及害怕损失机会买入的缓解性上升。由于两国之间的贸易问题仍有待解决，两国的现有关税还在打击经济，因此上升能否持续是值得怀疑的。周末的好消息的另一种解读是，由于贸易战没有加剧，美联储减息的可能性可能会降低。而第二季度企业收益报告即将到来，FactSet指出标准普尔500指数EPS预警数量是自2006年以来的第二高，这暗示财报的麻烦可能就在前面。技术上，道指距离历史高位26952还差352点，约1.3％，标准普尔500指数距离历史高位2694还差22点，约0.7%，而纳斯达克综合指数距离历史最高点8176还有170点，约2.1％。这些水平将会是难过的阻力，不过它们可能在周一就会被挑战或超越。但是否能够守稳很重要。我觉得这次上升行情可能不会走得太远便会反转。由于美中贸易谈判仍在继续，冲突可能随时会再起，而企业盈利又不看好，价格昂贵的美国股市而又在历史高位看来并不合适。
以下是一些有关中美贸易谈判的一些相关新闻：
。周六在大板，“最坏情况”的贸易战情景得到避免。特朗普与习近平同意重启贸易谈判，取消对中国出口的新关税，世界两大经济体之间的贸易敌对行动暂停。特朗普补充说，尽管现有的关税仍将存在，但美国总统放宽了对华为的限制，这是两个月内两个超级大国之间的第二次停火的一部分，消除了对全球经济的迫在眉睫的威胁，即使和平能否持久仍然难以捉摸。 ---Seeking Alpha
。唐纳德特朗普总统周六表示，虽然他与中国国家主席习近平的会晤成果远胜于预期，但他“并不急于”达成贸易协议。特朗普还表示，他不会增加对中国的现有关税。 “我并不着急，但事情看起来非常好，”特朗普在推文中写道，指的是华盛顿和北京之间正在进行的谈判。 “协议质量对我而言比速度更重要。”---路透社
。中国官方媒体在两国元首在日本举行破冰谈判后表示，中国和美国将面临漫长的道路才能达成协议以结束其激烈的贸易战，以后可能会有更多的争斗。---路透社
。以下是从彭博社得来的一些分析师看法内容摘要：
新加坡NatWest Markets高级宏观策略师Mansoor Mohi-uddin表示：“美中贸易战得到缓解，投资者情绪将在未来一周得到提振。”
曼谷Vanguard Markets的执行合伙人Stephen Innes：贸易谈判“重新按钮”是市场基本情况，这对风险起支撑作用，但缺乏进展时间表可能会限制“看涨的上行野心”。
ANZ驻香港首席中国经济学家Raymond Yeung表示：“今天的结果与去年12月相似，仍未能说贸易紧张局势得到解决。中国和美国在关键问题上没有取得任何进展，即知识产权和技术转让。“
墨尔本Pepperstone Financial的研究主管克里斯韦斯顿说：“我看不到这次会议对风险资产造成任何伤害，但仍有很多工作要做，以说服中央银行他们不需要采取行动来保持经济扩张受到制约。“ 鉴于新关税暂停，谈判重启的前景以及双方“实际上看起来比预期更加团结”，“一些弱势空头可能会被迫在周一回补平仓”。
在多伦多的Oanda高级市场分析师阿方索·埃斯帕萨（Alfonso Esparza）表示：“每个人都在没有任何额外戏剧性的情况下发挥自己的作用，在没有更多细节出现的情况下，我们回到原点。”
伦敦法国巴黎银行资产管理公司新兴市场固定收益部门负责人Jean-Charles Sambor说：“这当然是好事。投资者事前对会议的可能性以及会议后获得积极结果的可能性一般都是负面的。“
法国农业信贷银行G-10货币研究负责人瓦伦丁·马里诺夫（Valentin Marinov）：其含义是，在20国集团峰会之后，股市乐观情绪会进一步缓解了美国的情况，“这将减少美联储即将在7月降息的必要性”。这导致即将到来的美国非农就业数据和ISM数据对近期利率前景“非常重要”。
AXA投资经理高级经济学家David Page：由于市场反映了与去年11月情况的相似性，缺乏细节提升了不确定性。贸易战中没有升级“减少了美联储急剧减xi周期的可能性。”Page维持了他对从9月份开始2019年两次削减的看法。
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