Counting Negatives For The Stock Market 盘点对股市负面的因素

1. Dow formed multiple tops, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite formed triple tops, Russell 2000 formed head and shoulder top.

2. Transportation Index formed head and shoulder top and is below its 200, 50 and 20 day moving average. Its trend diverges with Dow trend, this is bearish according to Dow Theory.

3. Biotech sector (IBB) formed round top and is below its 200 day moving average.

4. Weak Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) price actions drag down tech stocks.

5. Uncertainty in US-China trade talk and market may have discounted possible good news from the upcoming weekend.

6. Iran crisis is intensifying.

7. The depth of interest rate cut has decreased， and July may not be the time to lower rate as expected.

8. Big rise in both gold and bitcoin is indicative of investors nervous about the economy and stock market and are buying hedges.

9. Fear Gauge ETF VXX is showing too much optimism and this usually cause market to reverse down. VXX is coming off low and formed double bottoms.

10. Big rise in semiconductor stocks on Micron earning is over done and may come back down soon.

11. Q2 corporate earning reports are to begin in July and do not expect to be good. According to Fact Set , earnings growth for Q2 2019, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -2.6%. If -2.6% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported two straight quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q1 2016 and Q2 2016.

12. Latest reports for Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Durable Good Orders are much worse than expectations. Inventory overhang are weighing on the manufacturing sector. Regional surveys suggest the national ISM manufacturing index will fall below the breakeven 50 level on Monday, which will only heighten fears of recession for the sector.

13.  With corporations entering earning recession, troubles all over  economically,  geopolitically and trades, it does not make sense to have the stock market near all time high.







1。道指形成多重顶，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数形成三顶，罗素2000形成头肩顶。

2。运输指数形成头肩顶并且低于其200日，50日和20日均线。其趋势与道指趋势背离，根据道氏理论，这是看空的。

3。生物技术板块（IBB）形成圆顶并且低于200日均线。

4。谷歌（GOOG）和Facebook（FB）的价格行为弱势拖累科技股。

5。美中贸易谈判的不确定性令投资人担忧。市场可能已经反映了这个周末可能带来的好消息。

6。伊朗危机正在加剧。

7。预期降息幅度有所下降并且有可能7月份不如预期般的减息。

8。黄金和比特币的大幅上涨表明投资者对经济和股市感到担忧而买入对冲避险。

9。恐惧指数ETF VXX显示出过份的乐观情绪，市场往往在这种情况下反转向下。VXX已形成双底并开始上升。

10。美光收益导致半导体股大幅上涨有些过份，可能很快就会回落。

11。第二季度企业盈利报告将于7月份开始，预计不会好。根据Fact Set，2019年第二季度标准普尔500指数的预计盈利下降-2.6％。如果季度的实际下降幅度为-2.6％，那将是自2016年第一季度和2016年第二季度以来该指数首次连续两个季度的收益下降。

12。消费者信心，新屋销售，耐用品订单的最新报告远比预期为差。而库存积压正在影响制造业。 区域调查显示，周一全国ISM制造业指数将跌破盈亏平衡的50水平，这只会加剧对该行业衰退的担忧。

13。随着企业进入盈利衰退，经济，地缘政治和贸易都有问题，股市接近历史高位是不合逻辑的。