Bearish Factors For The US Stock Market 美国股市的利空因素

。US-China trade war is intensifying, US-Mexico trade war just started and US-European and US-Japan trade war coming.

。Oil is down sharply ,gold up sharply and 10 year treasury yield hit 2016 low. They are starting to react and/or predicting more troubles to come in the stock market.

。Consistent yield curve inversion lately is predicting economic recession ahead.

。All major US stock indexes are below their 200 day moving averages. These are major technical breaches which indicate more downside. Not mention bearish Dow Triple Top and Double Top for both S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have been confirmed. Market's downside supports are indicated with Fibonacci lines as shown in the following S&P 500 daily chart.

。Sentiment is still bullish as the fear guage VIX is still sitting near recent low level. Investors  have not reflecting enough of the stock market's trouble.

。Seasonally, May to August stock market trend is usually down.

。美中贸易战正在加剧，美墨贸易战刚刚开始，美欧和美日贸易战即将来临。

。石油价格急剧下跌，黄金大幅上涨及10年国债回报率跌至2016年低位。这都显示他们开始反应和/或预测股市会出现更多麻烦。

。近期经常的收益率曲线反转预示着经济衰退或会到来。

。美国所有主要股指均低于200日均线。 这些是主要的技术破坏，显示更多的下跌会到来。  另外道指三重顶，标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数的双顶看跌形态均已得到证实。市场的下跌支撑在下面的标普500 图上以Fibonacci线列出。

。由于恐慌情绪VIX仍处于近期低位附近，市场情绪依然看涨。 投资者显然没有反映出足够的股市问题。

。从季节来看，5月至8月股市的走势通常是下行。

Morning Market News Digest And Comments 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 7:25 AM : Dow -275，  S&P 500 -31， Nasdaq -95， Russell 2000 -22 ,WTI crude oil -3.23%，Gold+0.83%， US dollar index-0.20%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.175%-0.052

Oversea markets: Shanghai-0.24%, Japan-1.63%, Hong Kong -0.79%, Germany-1.84%, UK-1.05%, France-1.49%.

Weak sectors: OIH, XRT, EWG, IBB, IGV, IYM, IYT, XLY, FDN  Strong sectors:GDX, GDXJ, TLT,GLD

Donald Trump to slap tariffs on all Mexican products was not anticipated, this is a Black Swan event for the financial markets and the US stock market will likely under tremendous pressure. Major stock market indexes opened down sharply. Dow was down 329 at its low. Major market indexes are off their lows now, but a lot of technical damages are done and more downside is likely.  Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite are  now solidly below their 200 day moving averages at 25430 , 2775 and 7527 respectively. Supports for Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite are their 38% and 50% retracement levels at 24797 and 24204, 2722 and 2650 and 7424 and 7187 respectively.

。In a statement released by the White House, Mr. Trump said he would invoke the authorities of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico starting June 10, and increase the tariff gradually, hitting 25% on Oct. 1. Mexico is the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner, with goods imports of $346.5 billion in 2018, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. ---Wall Street Journal

。China's Official May Composite PMI printed modestly lower than April's at 53.3, with Services at 54.3 (in line with last month and goal-seeked expectations), while Manufacturing (expected to decline into contraction at 49.9) was considerably worse than expected, printing 49.4. ---Zero Hedge

。China threatened on Friday to unveil an unprecedented hit-list of “unreliable” foreign firms, groups and individuals that harm the interests of Chinese companies, as a slate of retaliatory tariffs on imported U.S. goods was set to kick in at midnight. Beijing’s “unreliable entities list” would apply to those who violate market rules and the spirit of contracts, block supplies to Chinese companies for non-commercial reasons, “seriously damage the legitimate rights and interests” of Chinese companies and harm China’s national security, the ministry said. ---Reuters

。Beijing has readied a plan to restrict exports of rare earths to the U.S. if needed, as both sides in the trade war dig in for a protracted dispute, according to people familiar with the matter.The government has prepared the steps it will take to use its stranglehold on the critical minerals in a targeted way to hurt the U.S. economy, the people said. The measures would likely focus on heavy rare earths, a sub-group of the materials where the U.S. is particularly reliant on China. The plan can be implemented as soon as the government decides to go ahead, they said, without giving further details.---Bloomberg

A rare public call by a U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) official for one of the agency’s courtroom victories to be reversed, in a case of anticompetitive business practices by chipmaker Qualcomm Inc, charts a strong course for a judge’s ruling to be overturned on appeal, some legal experts said. ---Reuters

。Uber (UBER) reported better-than-expected revenue its first quarterly report since going public earlier this year. The company reported a net loss of $1.01 billion and revenue of $3.10 billion. Wall Street had expected a net loss of $1.01 billion on revenue of $3.04 billion, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates. ---CNBC

。Gap (GPS) reported first-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations. Gap reported a 4% drop in same-store sales, wider than the 1.1% drop that was expected. The company reported earnings of 24 cents per share, 8 cents lower than expected, and revenue of $3.71 billion, $60 million lower than expected. ---CNBC

。Zuora (ZUO)Q1 results met revenue estimates and beat on EPS but included downside Q2 guidance and cut its FY20 forecast. ---Seeking Alpha






太平洋时间早上7:25：道指-275，标准普尔500 -31，纳斯达克-95，罗素2000 -22，WTI原油-3.23％，黄金+ 0.83％，美元指数-0.20％，10年期国债收益率2.175％ -0.052

海外市场：上海 -  0.24％，日本 -  1.63％，香港--0.79％，德国 -  1.84％，英国 -  1.05％，法国 -  1.49％。

弱势行业：OIH，XRT，EWG，IBB，IGV，IYM，IYT，XLY，FDN 强势行业：GDX，GDXJ，TLT，GLD

唐纳德特朗普出乎意料的宣布增加所有墨西哥产品的关税，这对于金融市场是个黑天鹅事件，美国股市将承受巨大的压力。美国主要股指大幅低开。道琼斯指数在低位时下跌329点。目前主要市场指数已脱离低位，但已经造成很大的技术性破坏而可能继续下跌。道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数目前均稳固地低于它们的200天移动平均线分别为25430,2775和7527。道指，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数下面的支撑位分别为24797和24204, 2722和2650以及7424和7187的38％和50％回撤位。

。在白宫发布的一份声明中，特朗普表示，他将援引“国际紧急经济权力法”对从6月10日开始从墨西哥进口的所有商品征收5％的关税，并逐步提高关税，达到25％。根据美国贸易代表办公室的数据，墨西哥是美国的第三大贸易伙伴，2018年的货物进口额为3465亿美元。---华尔街日报

。中国官方5月份综合采购经理人指数小幅低于4月份的53.3，服务业为54.3（与上月持平和目标预期），而制造业（预计收缩至49.9）则远低于预期，为49.4。 --- Zero Hedge

。对进口美国商品的报复性关税计划将在午夜开始前，中国周五威胁要公布一份前所未有的“不可靠”的外国公司，团体和个人名单，这些名单伤的公司损害了中国公司的利益。北京“不可靠” “将适用于那些违反市场规则和合同精神，以非商业原因阻止中国公司供应，”严重损害中国公司合法权益，损害中国国家安全的公司。---路透社

。据知情人士透露，在贸易战增持不下的情况下，北京已经准备好在必要时制定限制稀土出口到美国的计划。政府已经准备好了采取措施。知情人士说，它以有针对性的方式扼杀关键矿物，以伤害美国经济。这些措施可能会集中在重型稀土上，这是美国特别依赖中国的材料。他们说，一旦政府决定继续进行，该计划就可以实施，而不会提供进一步的细节.---彭博社

。美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）官员罕见公开呼吁该机构的一项法庭胜利被撤销。一些法律专家说认为这种情况在芯片制造商高通公司 (QCOM)的反竞争商业行为案例中，为上诉推翻法官的裁决会有很大助力。---Reuters

。优步（UBER）上市以来的第一季度财报好于预期。该公司报告净亏损10.1亿美元，营收31.0亿美元。根据Refinitiv的一致预期，华尔街预计净亏损为10.1亿美元，营收为30.4亿美元。 --- CNBC

。Gap（GPS）报告第一季度收益低于预期。 Gap报告同店销售额下降4％，多于预期的1.1％。该公司报告每股盈利24美分，比预期低8美分，营收37.1亿美元，比预期低6000万美元。 --- CNBC

。Zuora（ZUO）第一季度业绩符合营收预期并超过每股收益预期但调低Q2指引并及FY20预测。 ---Seeking Alpha

Morning Market News Digest And Comments 早盘市场新闻及评论

Pacific Time 8:12 AM : Dow +63.50，  S&P 500+12.33， Nasdaq+39.48， Russell 2000+7.92 ,WTI crude oil+0.34%，Gold-0.07%， US dollar index+0.08%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.269%+0.033

Oversea markets: Shanghai－0.31%, Japan-0.29%, Hong Kong -0.44%, Germany+0.52%, UK+0.50%, France＋0.54%.

Weak sectors: GDXJ,TLT  Strong sectors:SMH, FDN, XRT, XLY, EEM, XLF, SOCL

After major stock indexes held important supports during yesterday's trading, US stocks find buyers today. Major market indexes opened up and are holding moderate gains. The market will likely bounce from here since both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hold above their 200 day moving averages and the Dow holds above its 38% retracement level.  Month end buying and weak VIX should also support the market. Technical bounce targets for Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are 25430, 2860 and 7850 respectively.

。The U.S. grew a bit slower in the first three months of 2019 than originally reported, mostly because of weaker business investment. Corporate profits also fell for the second quarter in a row in a negative sign for the economy. Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, grew at a 3.1% annual pace in the first quarter, the government said Thursday. GDP was marked down from an initial 3.2% estimate. ---Market Watch

。The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly in April, rising to a seasonally adjusted $72.1 billion from $71.9 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday in an “advanced” look at the data. ---Market Watch

。Initial Jobless Claims +3K at 215K in-line with consensus, 212K prior (revised). Continuous Claims: -26K to 1.657M vs. 1.662M consensus, 1.683M prior (revised). ---Seeking Alpha

。Morgan Stanley reiterates its estimate that Apple's (AAPL) FY20 earnings could take a 23% hit in the worst case scenario of the U.S. imposing a 25% tax on all Chinese imports. But the firm expects Apple to raise prices to soften the impact to a more likely 19% profit reduction. Morgan doesn't expect China to ban iPhones since the devices are produced in the country. Goldman Sachs and Cowen previously predicted 29% and 26% earnings reductions, respectively, if China did ban the iPhone. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on Apple but lowers the PT from $240 to $231. The firm says shares have hit a near-term floor at $160. ---Seeking Alpha

。Barclays cut Tesla (TSLA)price target on the stock to $150 (from $192) following the latest comments from Elon Musk. "While our demand is strong, we have a lot of vehicle deliveries to catch up to in order to have a successful quarter," he wrote in a company-wide email reported by multiple media outlets. ---Seeking Alpha

。Citigroup （C）was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs, which thinks the bank has a realistic path to growth in key metrics next year even without strengthening global growth or higher interest rates. ---CNBC

。Palo Alto Networks（PANW） — Palo Alto beat estimates by 6 cents a share, with adjusted quarterly profit of $1.31 per share. The cybersecurity company’s revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts, however it gave a weaker-than-expected current-quarter forecast as acquisitions negatively impact its bottom line. ---CNBC

。Dollar General (DG)— The discount retailer earned $1.48 per share for the first quarter, 9 cents a share above estimates. Revenue came in above forecasts as well, and a same-store sales increase of 3.8% beat the Refinitiv consensus of a 2.9% rise. ---CNBC






太平洋时间上午8:12：道指+63.50，标准普尔500 + 12.33，纳斯达克+ 39.48，罗素2000 + 7.92，WTI原油+ 0.34％，黄金-0.07％，美元指数+ 0.08％，10年期国债收益率2.269％0.033

海外市场：上海-0.31％，日本-0.29％，香港-0.44％，德国+ 0.52％，英国+ 0.50％，法国+ 0.54％。

弱势行业：GDXJ，TLT  强势行业：SMH，FDN，XRT，XLY，EEM，XLF，SOCL

在主要股指在昨天的交易中获得重要支撑后，美股今日有买家。 主要市场指数开盘并保持温和上涨。 由于标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均维持在200日移动均线上方并且道琼斯指数也守住38％的回撤位，因此市场可能会从此反弹。 月底的买盘和走弱的VIX也应该对市场有所帮助。 道指，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数的技术反弹目标分别为25430, 2860和7850。

。2019年前三个月美国的增长速度比原先报告的要慢，主要是因为商业投资减弱。企业利润也连续第二个季度下滑，对经济产生负面影响。政府周四表示，第一季度国内生产总值年增长率为3.1％。国内生产总值从最初的3.2％估计下降。 ---Market Watch

。美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，4月份美国商品贸易逆差略有扩大，经季节性调整后从719亿美元上调至721亿美元。 ---Market Watch

。首次申请失业救济人数增加3K到215K，符合预期，先前为212,000（经修订）。持续索赔：-26K至1.657M对比1.662M共识，1.683M之前（经修订）。 ---Seeking Alpha

。摩根士丹利重申其估计苹果公司（AAPL）的FY20盈利可能会受到23％的打击，因为美国对所有中国进口产品征收25％的税。但该公司预计苹果公司将提高价格以减轻其影响，从而实现19％的利润减少。由于这些设备是在中国生产的，摩根不觉得中国会禁止使用iPhone。如果中国禁止使用iPhone，高盛和考恩（Cowen）之前预计分别减少29％和26％的盈利。摩根士丹利维持对苹果的增持评级，但将目标价从240美元降至231美元。该公司表示股价已触及近160美元的近期底部。 ---Seeking Alpha

。根据Elon Musk的最新评论，巴克莱将特斯拉（TSLA）的股价目标定为150美元（从192美元下调）。 “虽然我们的需求很强劲，但为了获得成功的季度，我们有很多车辆需要赶上，”Elon Musk在多家媒体报道的公司电子邮件中写道。 ---Seeking Alpha

。花旗集团（C） 被高盛（Goldman Sachs）升级为“买入”，认为即使没有加强全球经济增长或更高的利率，该银行明年也会在关键指标上实现增长。--- CNBC

。Palo Alto Networks （PANW）每股盈利6美分，调整后的季度利润为每股1.31美元。这家 网络安全公司的收入也超过了华尔街的预期，但由于收购对其盈利产生了负面影响，因此当前季度预测弱于预期。--- CNBC

。Dollar General（DG） - 折扣零售商第一季度每股收益1.48美元，比预期高出每股9美分。 收入也高于预期，同店销售增长3.8％，超过Refinitiv预测的2.9％。--- CNBC

Short Term Market Bounce Likely 市场短期反弹的机会大

Chinese threaten ban on rare earth export which deepens trade war; Government bond yields across the world are tumbling in worry of global economic slow down and German unemployment unexpectedly surged for the first time in almost two years as the economic slowdown finally started to take a toll on its labor market were bad news this morning that caused big drops among major US stock market indexes. At the day's low, Dow dropped 410 points, S&P 500 36 points and Nasdaq Composite 134 points. By the close the indexes cut their losses in half and are down only 221 points, 36 points and 60 points for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite respectively.

The importance of today's action are that the Dow is above its 38% retracement level (retracement of big up move from December 24 low to April 23 high) support at 24797 even though it is below 200 day moving average 26430. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have recovered above their 200 day moving averages at 2776 and 7527. These levels are now become stronger supports. The next level of supports for both of them are their 38% retracement levels at 2722 and 7424 respectively.

Since major market indexes are able to hold above their major supports and a bounce from these levels are reasonable. Oversold semiconductor (SMH) and energy (OIH) sectors have started to bounce and they both closed positive today should help. Fear gauge $VIX was calm even when the Dow dropped over 400 points this morning indicates investors still willing to buy stocks. And one observation is that, every time the Dow dropped more than 400 points, buying always came in，this  happened twice recently. My speculation is that, since interest rate is at historical low and there are no better investing vehicles returns better than stocks, investors have no choice but to stay in stock.

All said, US stock market is still in a down trend but a short term bounce looks imminent. Upside targets for Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are 25430, 2860 and 7850 respectively.

中国威胁禁止稀土出口，加剧贸易战;由于担忧全球经济放缓，全球政府债券收益率都在下滑及经济放缓开始对德国劳动力市场造成影响，德国失业率近两年来首次出人意料地飙升，这些都是今天上午造成美国主要股市指数大幅下跌的坏消息。道琼斯指数曾一度下跌410点，标准普尔500指数下跌36点及纳斯达克综合指数下跌134点。收盘时，指数收复了早上跌幅的一半，道指，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌221点，36点和60点。

今日的重要性在于道琼斯指数高于其38％的回撤水平（从12月24日的低点回升至4月23日的高位的回撤）支撑价位24797，尽管它低于200日均线26430。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均收于200日移动平均线上方，分别收于2776点和7527点。这些水平现已成为更强劲的支撑位。这两个指数的下一个支撑位是他们的38％回撤水平，分别为2722和7424。

由于主要市场指数能够保持在它们主要支撑位之上，所以从这些水平反弹是合理的。超卖的半导体（SMH）和能源（OIH）板块已开始了反弹，今天两者均收涨会对市场所帮助。尽管道指今早跌幅超过400点但恐慌指数VIX却表现平静，表明投资者并不恐慌并仍愿意入市。近期的观察显示，每当道琼斯指数下跌超过400点时，买盘总会进来，最近已发生了两次。我的猜测是，由于利率处于历史低位且没有比股票回报更好的投资渠道，投资者别无选择而只能留在股票市场。

美国股市整体仍处于下跌趋势，但短期反弹似乎迫在眉睫。道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数的反弹目标分别为25430,2860和7850。

Two Stocks For Short Term Trades 两只短炒的股票

Intel (INTC) and Qualcom (QCOM) are up while the general market is down big today. These two stock has dragged the semiconductor stock sector up with them. INTC is down about 25% from its all time high while QCOM is down around 26% from its all time high and they are oversold. INTC has touched support at 63 and QCOM's support is at 65. So it's reasonable for them to bounce from these levels. Fundamentally, INTC's projected forward PE is a low 9.63. Projected EPS this year will be +42%. It has a dividend yield of 2.89%. All these are attractive for many investors. As for QCOM the good news is that company is go to appeal it's lost antitrust lawsuit and FTC Commissioner Christine Wilson, who was appointed by President Donald Trump, wrote a commentary in the Wall Street Journal calling Koh’s ruling “alarming” and calling for it to be revisited. This may increase the chance of over turn the antitrust ruling. If that's the case, QCOM will skyrocket again.  I think these two stocks are suitable for a short term bounce trade with bounce targets for INTC to 46.5 then 48.5 and QCOM to 71.5.  Remember these are only short term trades since the stocks are still in down trend and the general market trend is not looking good.

今天整体市场大幅下滑，而英特尔（INTC 44.17）和高通（QCOM 66.03）股价却上涨。这两只股票帮助了半导体股票板块上升。 INTC从历史高点下跌约25％，而QCOM从历史高点下跌约26％，并且超卖。 INTC已经触及支撑位63，而QCOM的支撑位则在65。 所以他们从这些水平反弹是合理的。从基本面上说，INTC预计的市盈率为挺低的9.63。预计今年EPS将增长42％。股息收益率为2.89％。所有这些对许多投资者都很有吸引力。至于QCOM，好消息是该公司将上诉其失败的反托拉斯诉讼，而由唐纳德特朗普总统任命的FTC专员克里斯蒂娜威尔逊在华尔街日报上写了一篇评论，称Koh的裁决“令人担忧”并要求它重新审视。这可能会增加平反反垄断裁决的机会。如果是这样的话，QCOM将再会次飙升。我认为这两只股票现在适合短期反弹交易，INTC的反弹目标为46.5 然后48.5，QCOM为71.5。请记住，这些都只是短期交易，因为这两只股票还在跌势之中而整个市场的情况还是不妙。

Morning Market News Digest And comments 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 8:12 AM : Dow -220，  S&P 500-20.18， Nasdaq-60.25， Russell 2000-14.83, WTI crude oil-2.52%，Gold+0.38%， US dollar index+0.11%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.226%-0.042

Oversea markets: Shanghai+0.16%, Japan-1,21%, Hong Kong -0.57%, Germany-1.50%, UK-1.29%, France-1.89%.

Weak sectors: XRT, PPH, EWG, IYR, FDN, IBB, IGV, OIH   Strong sectors:TLT, FXI, SLV, SMH

。US Stock market opened sharply lower. Dow dropped below its 200 day moving average while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both challenged their 200 day moving averages. Helped by rebounding of the oversold semiconductor stocks, with the lead of Nasdaq , the market staged a rebound. At the moment, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite are above their 200 day moving averages at 2776 and 7527 respectively. However, the Dow is solidly below its 200 day moving average at 25430 and this may be a drag for the market. It is crucial for S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite not to break below their 200 day moving averages, more downside likely if this happens.

。Government bond yields across the world are tumbling again, with the U.S. 10-year  trading at 2.23% this morning as global trade tensions mount. The gap between the three-month and 10-year American yield fell as low as minus 12 basis points (yield curve inverted, a recession indicator), the most since negative 2007. Benchmark yields in Australia and New Zealand dropped to all-time lows, Japan’s fell close to -0.1%, the lowest in three years, while German bund yields are close to the rock-bottom.  ---Bloomberg

。Germany reported that its economy appears to have finally hit major pothole as German unemployment unexpectedly surged for the first time in almost two years as the economic slowdown finally started to take a toll on the labor market, according to Bloomberg. Specifically, in May the number of people out of work climbed by 60,000 compared with economists’ forecasts for a decline of 8,000, while the jobless rate also increased to 5% from a record-low 4.9%. ---Zero Hedge

。The pan-European STOXX 600 was down 1.4% to its lowest point since March 11, basic resources leading the losses with a 2.5% decline as all sectors remained in the red. Traders are taking a more cautious approach to risk assets, with the trade battle between Washington and Beijing proving to be a main point of anxiety for global markets. In Europe fears of a coming political battle between Rome and Brussels returned this week as reports emerged stating the EU is considering disciplinary action over the Italian government’s failure to rein in debt.---CNBC

。It's looking increasingly likely that the Communist Party might impose an export ban on rare-earth metals, creating serious supply-chain issues for American producers of everything from microchips, to batteries, to night-vision goggles. China's powerful state-planning body threatened to use rare earths as "China's counter-weapon against the US's unwarranted suppression"...while a host of state-controlled media organizations used rare threatening language intended to convey that Beijing isn't playing around. ---Zero Hedge

。Pivotal Research Group analyst Michael Levine began covering the online retail giant AMZN with a buy rating and 12-month price target of $2,750, the highest on the Street. Amazon is “a must-own name with huge upside even from here,” Levine wrote in a note, adding that he regards the company as having the highest quality management and franchise within the global Internet sector. Levine sees Amazon’s move to one-day shipping as a “massive strategic step towards total retail dominance.” ---Bloomberg

。While other chip makers have forecast a sluggish 2019, AMD has been optimistic since the beginning of the year, banking on the second half and its slew of new products. Cowen analyst Matthew Ramsay, who has an outperform rating and a $36 price target, said AMD stole the show at Computex in Taipei, Taiwan, a show focused on personal computers that hosted Chief Executive Lisa Su for the keynote address. Stifel analyst Kevin Cassidy, who has a buy rating and a $34 price target on AMD, noted the historic nature of AMD’s product launch. ---Market Watch

。Qualcomm (QCOM) has asked Federal Judge Lucy Koh not to enforce her decision that it illegally squeezed out rivals in the smartphone chip market as it plans to file an appeal that could take more than a year to wind through the courts. The ruling would force it to rework its license deals by "radically restructuring" its business in a way that would be impossible to unwind if it wins on appeal. Qualcomm argues that Koh excluded evidence after a March 2018 cutoff date - including the fact that Apple dropped Qualcomm in favor of Intel - and said that the FTC's theory in the lawsuit was unprecedented in antitrust law.---Seeking Alpha




太平洋时间上午8:12：道琼斯指数-220，标普500  -  20.18，纳斯达克 -  60.25，罗素2000-14.83，WTI原油 -  2.52％，黄金+ 0.38％，美元指数+ 0.11％，10年期国债收益率2.226％ -0.042

海外市场：上海+ 0.16％，日本-1,21％，香港-0.57％，德国-1.50％，英国1.29％，法国1.89％。

弱是行业：XRT，PPH，EWG，IYR，FDN，IBB，IGV，OIH 强势行业：TLT，FXI，SLV，SMH

美国股市大幅低开。道指跌破200日移动均线，而标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均触及200日移动均线。受半导体股超卖反弹的推动，在纳斯达克的带领下，市场出现反弹。目前，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别高于其200天移动平均线2776和7527。然而，道指稳固地低于200日移动平均线25430，这将是市场的拖累。对于标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数而言，至关重要的是不要跌穿200日均线，如果出现这种情况，市场会有更多的下行空间。

。全球政府债券收益率再次下滑，美国10年期收益率今早为2.23％，因全球贸易紧张局势加剧。三个月和十年期美国国债收益率之间的差距降至负12个基点（收益率曲线倒转是经济衰退指标），是2007年以来的最大跌幅。澳大利亚和新西兰的基准收益率降至历史最低点，日本跌幅接近-0.1％，为三年来的最低点，而德国国债收益率接近谷底。 ---彭博

。据彭博社报道，由于经济放缓最终开始对劳动力市场造成影响，德国失业率近两年来首次意外飙升，德国经济终于出现重大问题。具体而言，5月份失业人数增加了6万人，而经济学家的预测为下降8,000人，而失业率也从创纪录的4.9％增加到5％。 --- Zero Hedge

。泛欧斯托克600指数下跌1.4％至3月11日以来的最低点，基本资源领跌，下跌2.5％，所有行业均处于亏损状态。 交易员对风险资产采取更谨慎的态度，华盛顿和北京之间的贸易争端被证明是全球市场焦虑的焦点。 在欧洲，由于有报道称欧盟正在考虑对意大利政府未能控制债务采取纪律处分措施，因此担心罗马与布鲁塞尔之间即将举行的政治斗争将在本周回归。---CNBC

。中国共产党可能会越来越倾向于对稀土金属实施出口禁令，这会为美国生产商带来严重的供应链问题，从微芯片到电池，再到夜视镜。中国强大的国家计划机构威胁要使用稀土作为“中国反对美国无端镇压的反武器”......而许多国家控制的媒体组织使用罕见的威胁语言传达北京不玩游戏。 --- Zero Hedge

。Pivotal Research Group分析师迈克尔·莱文（Michael Levine）开始跟踪在线零售业巨头AMZN并冠以买入评级和12个月目标价格为2,750美元，是华尔街最高的。 Levine在一份报告中写道，亚马逊是“一个必须拥有的名称并有巨大的上升潜力”，他还称自己认为该公司在全球互联网领域拥有最高质量的管理和特许经营权。莱文看到亚马逊转向为期一天的速递是“向零售业占据主导地位的重大战略步骤。”---彭博社

。虽然其他芯片制造商预测2019年将出现低迷，但自今年年初以来，AMD一直保持乐观态度，下半年及其大量新产品也是如此。 Cowen分析师马修拉姆齐（Matthew Ramsay）对AMD的评级是优于大市，目标价格为36美元，表示AMD在台湾台北的Computex展会上获得关注，该展会主要针对个人电脑主持首席执行官丽莎苏的主题演讲。 Stifel分析师凯文卡西迪（Kevin Cassidy）特别看好AMD推出产品的历史性，他对AMD有买入评级和34美元的目标价。 ---Market Watch

。高通公司（QCOM）已经要求联邦法官Lucy Koh不要执行她的决定，即非法挤压智能手机芯片市场的竞争对手，因为它计划提出上诉，可能需要一年多的时间才能通过法庭。 该裁决将迫使其通过“彻底重组”其业务来重新修改其许可协议，如果它在上诉中获胜，将无法挽回。 高通公司辩称，在2018年3月截止日期之后，Koh排除了证据 - 包括苹果放弃高通公司支持英特尔的事实 - 并表示FTC在诉讼中的理论在反托拉斯法中是前所未有的。---Seeking Alpha

These Charts Are Scary 不看不知道，一看吓一跳

The S&P 500 index is only down 4.7% from its all time high, but some of the popular stocks have been down 20% to 68%! The stock market seems fine many big stocks are already in bear market! When one think of stocks that dropped 20% to 68%, one would think they have dropped too much, oversold, and ready to bounce, right? They probably look that way when you look at their daily charts, but when you take another perspective and look at their monthly chart, you would be as scare as me. I randomly pick some popular stocks and present to you as follows, see if you are as scare as me:

AAPL: Stock dropped sharply from all time high in the last 4 months of last year, then bounced strongly for 4 months, only to see it drop big again this month. It's monthly chart now has formed a Continuation Down pattern and is starting another leg down. It is down 22.8% from its all time high.

 NVDA: Stock dropped precipitately during the las 3 months of last year, it bounced weakly for 3 months, it then reversed down and formed a Continuation Down pattern on the weekly chart. It sure look like it might drop as much as the last leg down again. It is down 51% from its all time high.

QCOM: Stock rallied sharply last month when it settle lawsuit with AAPL, however it failed a antitrust lawsuit a few days ago. It dropped sharply and formed a Piercing Reversal pattern. Sure looks like more downside to come. It is down 27.6% from its all time high.

INTC: Stock was strong before it released is first quarter earning. It has reversed and formed a Double Top pattern. Double Top is usually not a good thing to have. It is down 26.4% from its all time high.

AVGO: Stock rallied strongly during the last 6 months of last year only to see it formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern. It looks like the beginning of a down trend. It is down 21.3% from its all time high.

BABA: The Chinese online retail giant has formed the second top of a bearish Double Top pattern and has just start to drop again this month. It is down 26.9% from its all time high.

MMM: The Dow component  has started the second down leg of a Continuation Down pattern. It is down 34.5% from its all time high.

SWKS: Stock has formed a bearish Head And Shoulder Top pattern and look more downside in the making. It is down 34.5% from its all time high.

SINA: The parent of the popular social media Weibo is down 68% from its all time high. Can it find bottom?

TCEHY: Tencent is one of the biggest technology company in China. Stock is down 32.59% from its all time high.  It just started the second leg of a bearish Continuation Down pattern.

标准普尔500指数仅从历史高点下跌4.7％，但一些受欢迎的股票已下跌20％至68％!  股市似乎很好很多大股已经在熊市中！ 当股票下跌20％至68％时，人们会认为他们已经下跌太多，超卖，并准备反弹，对吗？ 当你看他们的日线图时，他们可能看起来是那样，但当你采取另一种观点并查看他们的月线图表时，你会像我一样害怕。 我随机选择了一些受欢迎的股票并按照以下方式呈现给您，看看您是否像我一样恐慌：


AAPL：股价在去年最后4个月从历史高点急剧下跌，随后大幅反弹4个月，但本月再次大幅下挫。 它的月线图现在形成了一个延续下行模式，并再开始下行。 它从历史最高点下跌了22.8％。

NVDA：股价在去年最后3个月期间急剧下跌，后3个月昨反弹微弱反弹，随后反转并在周线图上形成持续下行模式。 看起来它一开始了下一波下降。 它从历史最高点下跌了51％。

QCOM：上个月，当QCOM与AAPL达成诉讼妥协时股价大幅上涨，但几天前它输了反垄断诉讼。 它急剧下降并形成了阴阳线反转模式。看起来会有更多下跌。 它从历史最高点下跌了27.6％。

INTC：在第一季度盈利公布之前股价表现强劲。 但在财报后已经逆转并形成了双顶模式。 双顶通常不是一件好事。 它从历史最高点下跌了26.4％。

AVGO：股价在去年最后6个月强劲上升，但这个月形成了看跌吞没模式。 它看起来像一个下降趋势的开始。 它从历史最高点下跌了21.3％。

BABA：这家中国在线零售巨头已经形成了看跌双顶模式的第二高位，并且本月刚刚开始下跌。 它从历史最高点下跌了26.9％。

MMM：这家道指成份股已经开始延续下行模式的第二波下行。 它从历史最高点下跌了34.5％。

SWKS：股票已形成看跌的头肩顶格局，看起来还有下行空间。 它从历史最高点下跌了34.5％。

SINA：受欢迎的社交媒体微博的母公司从历史最高点下跌了68％。 它能找到底部吗？

TCEHY：腾讯是中国最大的科技公司之一。 股价从历史高点下跌32.59％。 它刚刚开始了看跌继续下行模式的第二波下跌。

AMD Is A Buy 是买入AMD的时候

。AMD (AMD) announced a slew of new chips coming in July, including several new third-generation Ryzen PC chips. AMD touted its new products as a superior to a central processing unit (CPU) from Intel.

。Stifel and Cowen reaffirmed their buy ratings on the AMD following the announcement, citing their optimism on its new product lineup.

。EPS estimate for this year +126.9%. 10.32% short of float.

。Big price movement  (+11.54%) and huge volume (already 1.6X average) provide upside momentum.

。AMD stock broke above down trend line and started the second leg of a Continuation Up pattern. It is also ready to break above the high end of  a 2 month trading range ($26 to $30). Target is $34.

。AMD（AMD）宣布将于7月推出一系列新芯片，其中包括几款新的第三代Ryzen PC芯片。 AMD称其新产品优于英特尔的中央处理器（CPU）。

。Stifel和Cowen在消息公布之后重申了他们对AMD的买入评级，理由是他们对其新产品阵容持乐观态度。

。今年每股盈利成长预测为+ 126.9％。卖空股量为10.32％流通股量。

。今天巨大的价格变动（+ 11.54％）和巨大的交易量（已经是平均1.6倍）提供了上行动力。

。AMD股价升穿下跌趋势线并开始继续上行模式的第二波升势。 它还准备突破2个月交易区间（26美元至30美元）的高端。 目标是34美元。

Morning Market News And Comments 早盘市场新闻及评论

Pacific Time 7:56AM : Dow +18.50，  S&P 500+0.37， Nasdaq+11.96， Russell 2000-4 WTI crude oil+0.17%，Gold-0.55%， US dollar index+0.21%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.292 -0.032

Oversea markets: Shanghai+0.61%, Japan+0.37%, Hong Kong +0.38%, Germany-0.07%, UK+0.23%, France-0.12%.

Weak sectors: SLV, OIH, SMH, GDX, GLD, IBB   Strong sectors:FXI, IGV, FDN, EEM, XRT

US stock market opened higher with Dow up 132 points, it has now back down to only up 24 points.
There is no influential news to drive the market either way, the market will likely go with the original trend which is down. Major market indexes having drop below their 50 day moving averages, they are now testing their 200 day moving averages. They are Dow 25434, S&P 500 2776 and Nasdaq Composite 7529.

。Global Times reports that a new cybersecurity rule indicates possible retaliation against the US as it could set the stage for Chinese regulators to take necessary action against US technology companies if their products and services are found to pose a threat to China's national security, the Global Times reported overnight. ---Zero Hedge

。An intensifying dispute between Italy and the European Union hit financial markets on Tuesday, with investors bracing for another budget showdown between Rome and Brussels. European stocks and the euro were both trading lower during afternoon deals, following reports the euro zone’s third-largest economy could soon face disciplinary steps from the EU’s guardian of healthy public finances.
Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said Tuesday that Rome could be hit with a fine of 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) for accumulating debt and deficits that break EU rules. ---CNBC

。To perhaps most succinctly summarize the state of markets:
Support of equities and remaining in control so far: The Fed, buybacks and political jawboning. Going against equities: Macro reality. Upside triggers this year: Potential miracle saves in form of a China deal and somehow a Brexit deal by the end of October perhaps with new political leadership. Potential downside triggers this year: The weight of the emerging macro picture wrestling control away from the forces of intervention.  ---Sven Hendrick via Northmantrader.com

。The cryptocurrency market cap surged above $260 billion in early Asian trading tonight as the entire space legs to a new cycle high, led by Litecoin with Bitcoin hitting 12-month highs. Bitcoin broke out of its recent tight range around $8000, surging up to $8800. (GBTC) ---Zero Hedge

。Goldman Sachs downgrade Gilead (GILD) to Sell with a $60 price target (from $70) at . Analyst Terence Flynn cites the looming loss of patent exclusivity for Truvada and Atripla. He also mentions that Biktarvy can only protect about half of the company's $16B HIV franchise from generic competition. Goldman had been Neutral on the company since 2012. ---Seeking Alpha

。Instead of focusing on near-term noise, investors should focus on the compounding of EBITDA dollars that is about to occur, says Guggenheim on Square (SQ). The team there sees nearly $3B in EBITDA and $4 in EPS in 2024 vs. $418M and $0.78 this year. The stock is worth $195 per share vs. Friday's close of $64.66, says Guggenheim. ---Seeking Alpha

。Chinese online retail darling Alibaba （BABA） is considering raising another $20 billion by also listing its shares on the Hong Kong stock exchange, according to Reuters. The deal would be the biggest follow-up share sale over the last seven years globally and would give the company a supposed "war chest" to continue investing in technology. The final size of Alibaba’s listing has yet to be confirmed, with some sources claiming it will net the company between $10 billion and $15 billion, instead of $20 billion. ---Zero Hedge

。AMD (AMD +5.3%) announces its 7nm product roadmap at Computex, which includes several products across all markets set to launch in the next six months. Cowen analyst Matthew Ramsey weighs in on what the roadmap means for AMD and competitor Intel (INTC -0.9%): "With 7nm Ryzen 3 PC and Rome server CPUs launching in mid-2019, Intel will no longer be able to rely on its n-node silicon advantage, and will instead lean on its incumbency and breadth of silicon as its 10nm chips are not expected out until late 2019 in PCs and 2020 in servers." ---Seeking Alpha

。Beyond Meat （BYND） — J.P. Morgan Securities initiated coverage of the plant-based burger company with an “overweight” rating and a $97 per share price target, noting an “extraordinary” growth opportunity in a market it thinks will expand by 100 times from current levels over the next 15 years. ---CNBC




太平洋时间上午7:56：道琼斯指数+18.50，标准普尔500指数+ 0.37，纳斯达克指数+ 11.96，罗素2000-4 WTI原油+ 0.17％，黄金0.55％，美元指数+ 0.21％，10年期国债收益率2.292 -0.032

海外市场：上海+ 0.61％，日本+ 0.37％，香港+ 0.38％，德国-0.07％，英国+ 0.23％，法国-0.12％。

弱势行业：SLV，OIH，SMH，GDX，GLD，IBB  强势行业：FXI，IGV，FDN，EEM，XRT

美国股市开盘走高，道指曾上涨132点，现在已回落至仅上涨18.5点。在没有任何有影响力的消息可以推动市场的情况下，市场将保持一贯趋势---下跌。 主要市场指数已跌破50日均线，目前正在测试200日均线。 它们是道琼斯25434，标准普尔500 2776和纳斯达克综合指数7529。


。环球时报报道称，一项新的网络安全规则显示可能会对美国进行报复，因为如果发现其产品和服务对中国的国家安全构成威胁，它可能为中国监管机构对美国科技公司采取必要行动。 --- Zero Hedge

。意大利和欧盟之间日益激烈的争端在周二触及金融市场，投资者预期罗马和布鲁塞尔之间的另一次预算摊牌。欧洲股市和欧元在午后交易中走低，此前有报道称欧元区第三大经济体很快将面临欧盟健康公共财政监护人的纪律处分。意大利副总理马泰奥·萨尔维尼周二表示，由于累积违反欧盟规定的债务和赤字罗马可能被罚款30亿欧元（34亿美元）。 --- CNBC

。或许最简洁地总结一下市场状况：
到目前为止对股票利好的因素：美联储，回购和政治言论。对股票不利的因素：宏观现实。今年的上涨触发因素：潜在的中美贸易协议奇迹，新的政治领导导致10月底以某种方式英国脱欧达成协议。今年潜在的下行触发因素：新兴宏观图景的严重性导致介入势力失控。 --- Sven Hendrick通过Northmantrader.com

。由Litecoin带动加密货币市值飙升至2600亿美元以上，整个板块都进入了一个新的周期高点，比特币升至12个月高点。比特币突破了近期8000美元的窄幅区间，飙升至8800美元. (GBTC)--- Zero Hedge

。高盛（Goldman Sachs）将Gilead（GILD）评级下调至卖出，目标价为60美元（从70美元起）。分析师特伦斯·弗林（Terence Flynn）引用了特鲁瓦达（Truvada）和阿特里普拉（Atripla）即将失去的专利权为理由。他还提到，Biktarvy只能通过仿制药竞争保护公司16亿美元的艾滋病专营权的一半。自2012年以来，高盛一直对该公司持中立态度.---Seeking Alpha

。Guggenheim 对Square（SQ）的评价：投资者不应关注近期噪音，而应关注2024年将发生的接近$ 30亿美元EBITDA及4美元的盈利。而今年的收入为4.18亿美元和0.78美元。古根海姆表示，该股价格为每股195美元，周五收盘价为64.66美元。---Seeking Alpha

。据路透社报道，中国网上零售业宝宝阿里巴巴(BABA)正考虑通过在香港证券交易所上市其股票再筹集200亿美元资金。这笔交易将是全球过去七年来最大的后续股票出售，并将给公司跟多资金以继续投资技术。阿里巴巴上市的最终规模尚未得到确认，一些消息人士称其将使公司净值在100亿至150亿美元之间，而不是200亿美元。 --- Zero Hedge

。AMD（AMD ）宣布其Computex的7nm产品路线图，其中包括将在未来六个月内推出的所有市场的几款产品。 Cowen分析师Matthew Ramsey重点介绍了AMD和竞争对手英特尔（INTC -0.9％）的路线图：“随着7nm Ryzen 3 PC和罗马服务器CPU在2019年中期推出，英特尔将不再能够依赖其  - 节点硅的优势，并将依赖于其在线和宽广的硅片，因为它的10nm芯片预计要到2019年底在PC和2020年的服务器中出现。---Seeking Alpha

。Beyond Meat（BYND） - 摩根大通证券开始对这家以工厂为基础的汉堡公司进行报道，其评级为“增持”，每股价格为97美元，并认为未来15年市场中的“特殊”增长机会将从当前水平扩大100倍。 --- CNBC

Downside Reversal Day Likely Today 今天成为反转下跌日的机会大

S&P 500 was up 19 points this morning and is now up only 5. Dow was up 180 points earlier and is now up only 80. S&P 500 dropped through the high end of it's opening gap and went ahead to fill the gap, proceed to challenge yesterday's closing price, it then rallied to test the high end of its opening gap twice only to drop again from there, all these are bearish actions. This has the look of a down side reversal day, this pattern would be confirmed if S&P 500 drop through yesterday closing price of 2822. No progress in the US-China trade front and the long weekend ahead may drive traders to sell stock to avoid risk. Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) turning negative from up should also drags. The Dow 200 day moving average at 25434 is likely to be retested.

标准普尔500指数今早上涨19点，目前仅上涨5. 道指早前上涨180点，目前仅上涨80点。标准普尔500指数跌穿开盘缺口的高端并继续填补了缺口，下跌挑战昨天的收盘价之后，它再次上涨测试其开盘缺口的高端两次，不过再次从那里跌下来，所有这些都是利空的表现。如果标准普尔500指数再度跌穿昨天的收盘价2822，那么今天将会出现逆转下行的情况。美中贸易谈判没有进展和未来的长周末可能会促使交易者出售股票过周么以避免风险。苹果（AAPL）及Google（GOOG）从正数转向负数也是市场拖累。道指200日移动平均线25434可能会重新被测试。

Morning Market News And Comments 早盘市场新闻及评论

Pacific Time 7:34 AM : Dow +83，  S&P 500+9.26， Nasdaq+39.35， Russell 2000 +12.75, WTI crude oil+0.54%，Gold-0.32%， US dollar index-0.15%, 10 Year Treasury yield 2.333 +0.037

Oversea markets: Shanghai+0.02%, Japan-0.16%, Hong Kong +0.32%, Germany+0.62%, UK+0.79%, France+0.78%.

Weak sectors: OIH, IYT Strong sectors:IBB, SOCL, IYR, EWG

President Trump's optimistic talk on quick trade deal encouraged stock buyers at the open. FAANG stock bounce are are helping the Nasdaq while strength in Boeing (BA) is helping the Dow.  However talk is just talk and there is no sign of progress in US-China trade talk. Dow was up about 180 point earlier and is now pull back to only up 83 point.  Technically, it is positive that the Dow was able to close above it's 200 day moving average at 25434. But trends of major market indexes are still down as they are still below their 50 day moving averages. As Trump's optimistic talk wears off, the Dow will likely retest it's 200 day moving average again.

。"Optimistic" comments by President Trump, who repeated previous reports that he would meet China's Xi in June at the G-20 meeting, which boosted "hopes of progress" in U.S.-China trade talks, especially after Trump once again predicted a quick trade deal with China, one that could include Huawei.---Zero Hedge

。After March's huge upside surprise, durable goods orders were expected to slide 2.0% MoM in April but the preliminary print was slightly worse than expected (-2.1% MoM) and made worse by a notable downward revision to March (from +2.8% to +1.7%).---Zero Hedge

。Oil had its worst day of the year yesterday, dropping almost 6% as the commodity got caught in the stampede out of risky assets. Tensions in the Middle East had helped to shelter crude from some of the worst fears on global trade as investors balanced demand concerns against a possible supply disruption. Clearly that balance broke yesterday amid the renewed global growth concerns. While oil is 1.2% higher at $58.62 a barrel this morning, the damage is clear. ---Bloomberg

。Facebook's (FB) vaulting ambition to create a new global digital currency has led it to hold talks with some of America’s largest trading houses and crypto exchanges, FT reports. They include Jump and DRW, Chicago's biggest highfrequency trading firms, as well as Coinbase and Gemini, which was founded by Mark Zuckerberg's sworn enemies - the Winklevoss twins. The project is thought to be "bigger and more open" than just a way to make payments and purchases within Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, linking the currency's value to the dollar to be used across the real world.---Wall Street Breakfast

。Although the agency is not committing to a timetable, FAA representatives told the United Nations' aviation agency that the grounding of Boeing's (BA) 737 MAX in the U.S. could end as early as late June, Reuters reports. The target, if achieved, means U.S. airlines would likely not have to greatly extend costly cancellations of MAX jets they have already put in place for the peak summer flying season.---Wall Street Breakfast

。Amazon.com (AMZN) shares will reach $3,000 between mid-2021 and mid-2022, according to a Piper Jaffray analyst report. Piper said that this move — which would be a more than 60 percent jump from current levels — is based on Amazon meeting what it considers conservative growth targets. ---CNBC

。Foot Locker(FL) — The athletic footwear and apparel retailer reported adjusted quarterly profit of $1.53 per share, missing estimates by 7 cents a share. Revenue also came in below forecasts, and a comparable-store sales increase of 4.6% was below the 5.1% estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. ---CNBC

。Intuit(INTU)beat consensus estimates by 15 cents a share, with fiscal third-quarter profit of $5.55 per share. The TurboTax software maker’s revenue also came in above estimates and the company raised its full-year forecast. ---CNBC

。There is bullish call on Cannabis producer Aphria (APHA)at Jefferies. Analyst Owen Bennett (Buy/C$15) sees a "big disconnect between valuation and strategic positioning," adding that a "significant re-rating in shares" is ahead as the company emerges from allegations of inflated assets and insider deals. He also believes positive developments in the U.S. could boost the stock. ---Seeking Alpha






太平洋时间上午7:34：道指+83，标准普尔500指数+ 9.26，纳斯达克指数+ 39.35，罗素2000 +12.75，WTI原油+ 0.54％，黄金-0.32％，美元指数-0.15％，10年期国债收益率2.333 + 0.037

海外市场：上海+ 0.02％，日本-0.16％，香港+ 0.32％，德国+ 0.62％，英国+ 0.79％，法国+ 0.78％。

弱势行业：OIH，IYT    强势行业：IBB，SOCL，IYR，EWG

特朗普总统称贸易协议会快速达成的乐观谈话鼓励了今早开市股票买家。 FAANG股票的反弹帮助纳斯达克上升，而波音（BA）的强势帮助了道指。然而谈话只是谈话，美中贸易谈判并没有任何进展迹象。道指早前曾上涨约180点，现在回落至仅上涨83点。从技术面来看，道指昨日收于200日移动均线25434附近是正面的。但主要市场指数的走势仍在下行，因为它们仍低于50日移动均线。随着特朗普的乐观谈话的消退，道琼斯指数再次重新测试其200日移动平均线的机会大。

。特朗普总统发表“乐观”评论，他重复此前的报道称他将在6月份的20国集团会议上与中国的习近平会面，这促进了美中贸易谈判的“进步希望”，特别是在特朗普再次预测贸易协议会快速达成并可能包括华为.---Zero Hedge

。3月份出现巨大的上行意外后，4月份耐用品订单预计将环比下滑2.0％，但初步数据略差于预期（环比下跌2.1％），并且3月份明数据显下调（从+ 2.8％上升至+ 1.7％）.---Zero Hedge

。昨日石油价格是今年最糟糕的一天，随着商品因风险资产下跌而下跌近6％。由于投资者平衡了对可能出现供应中断的担忧，中东地区的紧张局势有助于避免原油对全球贸易的一些担忧。显然，在全球经济增长担忧加剧的情况下，尽管今早油价上涨1.2％至每桶58.62美元，但损失仍然很明显。 ---彭博

。据英国“金融时报”报道，Facebook（FB）创建新的全球数字货币的雄心壮志促使它与美国一些最大的贸易公司和加密交易所进行谈判。它们包括芝加哥最大的高频交易公司Jump和DRW，以及由Mark Zuckerberg的死敌 -  Winklevoss双胞胎创立的Coinbase和Gemini。该项目被认为“更大，更开放”，而不仅仅是在Facebook，Instagram和WhatsApp中进行支付和购买的方式，将货币的价值与美元联系起来，用于整个现实世界.---Wall Street Breakfast

。据路透社报道，虽然该机构没有遵守时间表，但美国联邦航空局的代表告诉联合国航空机构，美国波音公司（BA）737 MAX的停飞可能最早在6月下旬结束。目标如果实现，意味着美国航空公司可能无需大幅延长昂贵的MAX喷气机取消费用，这些喷气机已经准备在夏季飞行高峰期使用.---华尔街早餐

。根据Piper Jaffray分析师报告，亚马逊（AMZN）股价将在2021年中期至2022年中期达到3,000美元。派珀表示这一举动 - 将比当前价位水平高出60％以上 - 是基于亚马逊满足其认为的保守增长目标。 --- CNBC

。Foot Locker（FL） - 运动鞋和服装零售商报告调整后的季度利润为每股1.53美元，小于预期7美分。收入也低于预期，同店销售额增长4.6％，低于Refinitiv调查的分析师预期的5.1％。 --- CNBC

。Intuit（INTU）第三财季每股盈利5.55美元好于市场普遍预期15美分。 TurboTax软件制造商的收入也高于预期，该公司并上调了全年预测。 --- CNBC

。Jefferies 分析师Owen Bennett（买入/15美元）认为Aphria (APHA)  “估值与战略定位之间存在巨大脱节”，并补充称，随着公司出现资产膨胀和内幕交易的指控淡化后，“股价重估”将会出现。 他还认为，美国的积极发展可以提振股票。---Seeking Alpha

Fear Just Began 恐慌刚开始

TVIX (23.44): The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the returns of twice (2x) the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index. 

TVIX dropped from 31.86 to 20.6 (-35.3%) in the course of just two weeks. The consistent selling of TVIX before was indicative of extreme optimism on the the stock market. This optimism just changed to pessimism today as TVIX bounced up over 12%. TVIX has more to go as the general consensus of a US－China trade deal will be made just got throw out of the window. As major stock indexes broke their important supports, more fear is to come. TVIX can easily go back up to the high made in May 9 at 31.89 and more.

TVIX （23.44）：投资渠道寻求复制，扣除费用后，标准普尔500 VIX短期期货指数每日表现的两倍（2倍）回报。


TVIX在短短两周内从31.86降至20.6（-35.3％）。 之前TVIX的持续抛售表明投资人对股市极度乐观。 由于今天TVIX反弹超过12％，乐观情绪正在变成了悲观情绪。 TVIX会上升更多因为中美贸易能达成协议的普遍共识已被抛弃。 随着主要股指跌穿它们的重要支撑，更多的恐惧即将到来。 TVIX可以很容易地回到5月9日的高点31.89或以上。

Technical Supports For US Stock Indexes 美股各大指数支撑水平

Stock Market Is Going Lower Because： 股市将继续下跌因为：

Technicals:

。Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 are below their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are below their 20 and 50 day moving averages. Market down trend established.

。Bearish chart patterns: Dow Tripple Tops,  S&P 500 Double Tops, Nasdaq Composite Double Tops.

。Semiconductor, energy, biotech, financials , transportation and material sector stocks are all below their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Their trends are down.

。Sharp drop of  fear index VIX before today is overdone and sentiment is too optimistic. It's not reflecting trade war negatives.

。From their highs to today's prices, Dow -4.9%, S&P 500 -4.7% and Nasdaq Composite -6.8%. These drops are not enough consider trade war intensified and weak global economic data. Normal correction is 5% to15%.


Fundamentals:

。US-China trade war intensified and no talk scheduled.

。Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 50.9 (53.0 in April). 36-month low. Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 50.9 (53.0 in April). 39-month low. Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 50.6 (52.6 in April). 116-month low. Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index at 50.8 (52.7 in April). 35-month low.

。German manufacturing PMI eased to 44.3 from 44.4, and the service PMI dropped to 55.0 from 55.7.

。After moving above the 50 boom/bust level in April for the first time since January, Japan's flash manufacturing PMI slipped back again to stand at 49.6 from 50.2.






技术指标：

。道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数低于其20日，50日和200日移动均线。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均低于20日和50日移动均线。市场下跌趋势确立。

。看跌图表模式：道指三顶，标准普尔500双顶，纳斯达克复合双顶。

。半导体，能源，生物技术，金融, 运输和材料板块均低于20日，50日和200日移动均线。他们的趋势在下降。

。今天之前恐慌指数VIX大幅下挫过度，情绪过于乐观。并没有反映贸易战的负面影响。

。从高位到今天的价格，道指-4.9％，标准普尔500指数-4.7％和纳斯达克综合指数-6.8％。考虑到贸易战加剧和全球经济数据疲弱，这些下降还不够。正常调正幅度为5%到15%。



基本面：

。美中贸易战愈演愈烈，没有安排谈判。

。美国综合产出指数为50.9（4月份为53.0）。 36个月低点。美国服务业务活动指数为50.9（4月份为53.0）。 39个月低点。美国制造业采购经理人指数为50.6（4月份为52.6）。 116个月低点。美国制造业产出指数为50。8（4月份为52.7）。 35个月低点。

。德国制造业PMI从44.4降至44.3，服务业采购经理人指数从55.7降至55.0。

。自1月以来首次突破4月份的50个繁荣/萧条水平后，日本的制造业采购经理人指数再次从50.2跌至49.6。

Morning Market News And Comments 早盘市场新闻及评论

Pacific Time 7:48 AM : Dow -321，  S&P 500 -32.82， Nasdaq-104， Russell 2000 -22, WTI crude oil-5.32%，Gold+0.72%， US dollar index+0.08%.

Oversea markets: Shanghai-1.36%, Japan-0.62%, Hong Kong -1.58%, Germany-1.78%, UK-1.62%%, France-1.91%.

Weak sectors: OIH, SMH, SOCL, IGV, IYT, FDN, XLF, IYM  Strong sectors:GDX, GDXJ, TLT, SLV, GLD

Worsening US-China trade war and lower than expected May PMI are driving US stock market down sharply this morning. There are only 2 stocks up out of 30 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow's 200 day moving average support 25433 has broken and semiconductor ETF SMH is also below its 200 day moving average and the very weak oil stocks (OIH), all could accelerate the stock market down turn.  Very weak oversea markets may deter any market bounce attempt. Stock market's next support will be the 200 day moving averages of S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite and they are 2777 and 7532.

。May U.S. PMI Composite Flash: 50.8 vs. 52.4 consensus 52.8 prior. Manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs. 52.3 consensus, 52.4 prior. Services PMI 50.9 vs. 52.8 consensus, 52.9 prior. ---Seeking Alpha

。The breakdown in Sino-U.S. talks and the latest targeting of Chinese companies by the White House has economists at investment banks increasingly pessimistic about the long-term outlook. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Nomura Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan Chase and Co. are among those pricing-in a greater chance of a protracted trade war. One China analyst sees both sides stuck in a cycle of “fighting and talking” until 2035. Meanwhile, the fallout is hitting emerging-market investors’ favorite tech companies, with the three biggest losing $170 billion in value so far this month. ---Bloomberg

。The United States needs to correct its wrong actions if it wants to continue negotiations with China to end a damaging tariff war, China’s Commerce Ministry said on Thursday, adding that talks should be based on mutual respect. The United States has escalated trade frictions greatly, and increased chances of a global economic recession, spokesman Gao Feng said at a weekly briefing, adding that Beijing will take necessary steps to safeguard Chinese firms’ interests.---Reuters

。The International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker shows Huawei shipped 206 million smartphones, 105 million in mainland China, accounting for 26.4% of the domestic market last year. Apple placed fifth in the country with 9.1%. By 1Q19, that fell to 7% compared to a 3% share gain for Huawei, according to Counterpoint. "Chinese consumers' love for Huawei can only increase because of the ban," said Kiranjeet Kaur, senior research manager at IDC Asia Pacific. "Unless of course hardware supply chain constraints affect the roll-out of its phones locally." ---Zero Hedge

。Hedge funds reveal their holdings four time a year in regulatory filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the information is released to the public 45 days after each quarter ends. Steadfast Capital piled into General Electric （GE）, adding more than $153 million worth of shares by the end of the first quarter. The fund also added new bets on PG&E（PCG）, Burlington Stores（BURL） and Facebook （FB）. Steadfast has $10.6 billion in asset under management and the fund’s stock picks have returned 23.4% year to date, beating the S&P 500′s 14% gain, according to Symmetric. RA Capital Management and Boxer Capital are focused on health care and biotech companies. RA picked up Sage Therapeutics （SAGE） and Axsome Therapeutics （AXSM）, which are both pharmaceutical companies developing drugs for central nervous system disorders. ---CNBC

。Slowing iPhone demand, trade war headwinds and possible ripple effects from a Huawei battle don’t bode well for Apple (AAPL), according to UBS, which cut its 12-month price target on the iPhone maker to $225 (from $235). UBS still has a Buy rating on the stock, but cited evidence from a survey of 8,000 people across six countries that suggests consumers are in no rush to upgrade their phones, and for iPhones specifically, "purchase intention" looks to be stabilizing at a low level in all regions except China. ---Seeking Alpha

。Mizuho cuts Qualcomm (QCOM) to Neutral and drops the price target from $90 to the Street-low $65. Analyst Vijay Rakesh cites uncertainty after the antitrust court ruling, which creates significant overhang and could pose a 50% downside risk to EPS. ---Seeking Alpha






太平洋时间上午7:48：道琼斯-321，标准普尔500 -32.82，纳斯达克104，罗素2000 -22，WTI原油-5.32％，黄金+ 0.72％，美元指数+ 0.08％。

海外市场：上海 -  1.36％，日本 -  0.62％，香港 -  1.58％，德国 -  1.78％，英国 -  1.62 %%，法国 -  1.91％。

弱势行业：OIH，SMH，SOCL，IGV，IYT，FDN，XLF，IYM  强势行业：GDX，GDXJ，TLT，SLV，GLD

美中贸易战的恶化以及低于预期的5月采购经理人指数正在推动美国股市今早大幅下挫。 道琼斯工业平均指数30只股票中只有3只股票在上涨。 道琼斯指数200日移动平均线支撑位25433已经被击穿，半导体ETF SMH也低于200日移动均线及能源股（OIH）的弱势，这些都可能加速股市的下行。 海外市场非常疲软也会阻止任何市场反弹的尝试。 股市的下一个支撑位将是标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数的200天移动平均线，它们分别为2777和7532。

。5月美国采购经理人指数综合指数为50.8，之前为52.8，市场预期为52.8。制造业采购经理人指数为50.6，而52.3为共识，之前为52.4。 服务业采购经理人指数50.9对52.8的共识，52.9先前。 ---Seeking Alpha

。中美谈判破裂以及白宫最近针对中国公司的目标是投资银行的经济学家对长期前景越来越悲观的原因。高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.），野村控股（Nomura Holdings Inc.）和摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase and Co。）等公司认为长期贸易战有可能发生。一位中国分析师认为，双方在2035年之前一直处于“战斗和谈话”的循环中。与此同时，这一影响力正在打击新兴市场投资者最喜欢的科技公司，本月迄今为止最大的三家公司的亏损额达到了1700亿美元。 ---彭博

。中国商务部周四表示，如果美国希望继续与中国谈判以结束破坏性的关税战争，美国需要纠正错误的行动，并补充说，谈判应该建立在相互尊重的基础上。发言人高峰在每周一次的通报会上表示，美国已大大加剧了贸易摩擦，增加了全球经济衰退的可能性，并表示北京将采取必要措施保护中国企业的利益.---路透社

。国际数据公司（IDC）全球季度手机追踪显示，华为在中国大陆出货了2.06亿部智能手机，1.05亿部在中国，占去年国内市场的26.4％。苹果在全国排名第五，占9.1％。根据Counterpoint的数据，截至1Q19，这一数字下降至7％，相比华为的上涨3％。 IDC亚太区高级研究经理Kiranjeet Kaur说：“中国消费者对华为的热爱只会因禁令而增加。” “当然，除非硬件供应链的限制影响到本地电话的推出。” --- Zero Hedge

。对冲基金每年四次向美国证券交易委员会提交监管文件，并在每个季度结束后45天向公众发布信息。 Steadfast Capital涌入通用电气（GE），在第一季度末增加了超过1.53亿美元的股票。该基金还在PG＆E （PCG），Burlington Stores （BURL）和Facebook（FB）上添加了新的赌注。 Symmetric表示，Steadfast管理的资产为106亿美元，该基金的股票选择今年迄今已回报23.4％，超过标准普尔500指数14％的涨幅。 RA Capital Management和Boxer Capital专注于医疗保健和生物技术公司。 RA选择了Sage Therapeutics （SAGE）和Axsome Therapeutics（AXSM），它们都是开发中枢神经系统疾病药物的制药公司。 --- CNBC

。根据瑞银（UBS）的说法，iPhone的需求放缓，贸易战的逆风和华为之争可能产生的连锁效应对于苹果公司（AAPL）来说并不是好兆头。瑞银表示将iPhone制造商的12个月目标价格降至225美元（从235美元）。 瑞银仍然对该股票有买入评级，但引用来自六个国家的8,000人调查的证据表明消费者并不急于升级他们的手机，而对于iPhone而言，“购买意向”看起来除在中国以外的所有地区稳定在低位 的水平。 ---Seeking Alpha

。瑞穗将高通（QCOM）的评级下调至中立，并将价格目标从90美元下调至街头低点65美元。 分析师Vijay Rakesh在反托拉斯法院裁决后引用了不确定性，这导致了重大的担忧，并可能给EPS带来50％的下行风险。 ---Seeking Alpha

Market Comments Before Close 收市前市场评论

US stock market opened down, bounced and is now trending down again. S&P 500 are trading below its 50 day moving average at 2873. Its trend is down. Now that FOMC Minutes confirm hawkish "transitory" inflation outlook and remains "patient for some time", the market may accelerate to the downside. Qualcom(QCOM) lost a law anti-competition lawsuit and stock drops over nearly 12% , Apple (AAPL) price target lowered by Goldman Sachs to 178 and oil sector dropping over 4% all are drags for the market. Separately, US is considering cutting off the flow of American technology to as many as five Chinese companies including Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the world's largest supplier of video surveillance products adding tension on the trade front does not help also. What is strange is that volatility index ETF VXX is not showing fear (we don't know what the institutions are conspiring ). However，the weakness in VXX is also indicative of complacency, and this is negative for the market.  There are all kind of reasons for the market to come down and I think the main reason is the market has not discounted the impact of trade war. The market trend is down as long as the S&P 500 does not recover above its 50 day moving average 2873.

美国股市开盘下跌，反弹, 现在再次下跌。标准普尔500指数低于其50日均线2873点, 趋势下跌。刚发布的 联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要确认鹰派的“短暂”通胀前景并且仍然会“耐心一段时间”，市场可能会加速下行。美国高通公司（QCOM）反竞争诉讼败诉，股价下跌近12％，高盛（Goldman Sachs）将苹果公司（AAPL）的价格目标下调至178及石油股下跌超过4％都是市场的拖累。另外，美国正在考虑切断美国技术流向多达五家中国公司，包括杭州海康威视数字技术公司，这是全球最大的视频监控产品供应商，也增加了贸易方面的紧张局势。奇怪的是波动指数ETF VXX没有表现出恐惧（我们不知道机构有甚么阴谋）。不过另一种看法是 VXX的弱势显示过分乐观，这对市场不利。市场现在有各种下跌的原因，我想主要原因是市场还没有反映贸易战的负面影响。只要标准普尔500指数没有突破50日均线2873，市场走势就会下跌。