Intraday S&P 500 Technical Conditions 当日市场技术情况

S&P 500 moved up strongly early in the morning today by up 29 points to reach a high of 2869, only 3 points from its 50 day moving average resistance at 2872. It got tuned back twice at this level during the day. S&P 500's 50 day moving average resistance obviously is key to whether the US stock market can go up further. The upper side of today's up gap at 2854 is a critical support. If this level is broken, the S&P 500 will likely accelerate to the downside. I think the chance of the market  ( turning back down is high ( that said, the low VIX level is helping the market, it needs to go up first)  and my reasons are:

。US-China trade war has intensified and more retaliation from China likely.

。The market is overdone to erase all the losses on Huawei's bad news.

。S&P 500 is only down 3% from its all time high, not much of a discount for bad news, more down side correction is likely

。S&P 500 hit 50 day moving average resistance, don't see any news that can help push through this level.

今天早上标准普尔500指数曾大涨了29点，达到2869的高点，仅比其50日均线阻力位2872点差3点。今天S&P 500 在2869两次被阻回落。 标准普尔500指数的50日均线阻力显然是美国股市是否会进一步上涨的关键。 今天的上涨缺口上方价位2854的是关键支撑。 如果这个水平被击破，标准普尔500指数可能会加速下行。 我认为市场继续下跌趋势的机会大（尽管这样说，低VIX水平正在帮助市场上升，它得先升上去），我的理由是：

。美中贸易战愈演愈烈，可能会有更多来自中国的报复行动。

。市场今天消除了昨日华为坏消息的所有损失是反应过度。

。S＆P 500仅从历史最高点下跌3％，对坏消息的折扣不大，可能需要更多下行修正。

。S＆P 500触及50日均线阻力，没有看到任何有助于推动超越这一水平的好消息。