How Low The US Stock Market Can Go This Time 这次美股会跌到多低

Technicals of major market indexes have deteriorated significantly after dropping average almost 2.5%.  Dow dropped below its 200 day moving average at 25422 while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped below their 50 day moving average at 2862 and 7845 respectively.  Next level of support is 38% retracement level at 24807 and for S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite are their 200 day moving averages at 2775 and 7531 respectively. Dow is below 20, 50 and 200 moving averages, this means it is in short, intermediate and long term down trend. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are below their 20 and 50 day moving averages, these means they are in short and intermediate down trend. What makes things worse is that Dow formed Triple Tops while S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite formed Double Tops and these are very bearish chart patterns.

So how low these indexes can go? Let us use the Dow as an example.  Market corrections usually run from 5% to 15%. Sure looks like we have more to go on the downside from the present levels since it is now down a little over 5% from the recent top. Assuming the Dow drop 10% from the top at 26689, it may drop to 24021. For a 15% drop from top, the Dow may drop to 22685. If we are using Fibonacci Retracement levels, the 38%, 50% and 62% retracement levels of the big move from December 24, 2019 low (21712) and May 1, 2019 high (26689), these levels are 24797, 24204 and 23611. Which would be 7%, 9.3% and 11.5% down from top for the Dow.  It better not drop below 23611 because it would usher in a 62% odd of total retracement down to December 2018 low at 21712. My guess is a 9.3% drop to 24204 and I think I am being conservative.

经过各大股指平局下跌近2.5%后主要市场指数技术上明显恶化。道指跌破200日移动均线25422，而标准普尔500和纳斯达克综合指数分别跌破50日移动均线2862和7845。道指下一个支撑位是24807的38％回撤位，标准普尔500和纳斯达克综合指数支撑分别为2775和7531的200日均线。道指跌破20, 50和200均线，这意味着它处于短期，中期和长期下行趋势。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均低于其20日和50日移动均线，这意味着它们处于短期和中期下跌趋势中。让事情变得更糟的是道琼斯指数形成三重顶，而标准普尔500和纳斯达克综合指数形成双顶，这些都是非常看跌的图表形态。


那么这些指数会跌到多低？让我们以道指为例。市场调整通常在5％至15％之间。因为它现在从最近的顶部下降了只略多于5％，看起来明显我们从现在水平还会有更多的跌幅。假设道琼斯指数从顶部26689下跌10％，那就可能跌至24021。从顶部下跌15％，道指可能下跌至22685.如果我们使用斐波纳契分割从2019年12月24日的低位（21712）和2019年5月1日的高点（26689）的涨幅，回撤38％，50％和62％分别会得出道指24797, 24204和23611水平。这将是 道琼斯指数顶部的7％，9.3％和11.5％下降。它最好不要跌破23611，因为那时它将迎来62%回落到2018年12月的低点21712的机率。我的估计是下跌9.3％至24204，我认为我是比较保守的。