。Transatlantic relations aren't too smooth at the moment, either. The EU is finalizing a list of American goods to target with retaliatory levies in the event that Trump imposes tariffs on car imports, trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom said. He's expected to make a decision by May 18. Shares of European automakers have already been hit. ---Bloomberg
。Tariff impacts to China and US:
China remains America's top trading partner, with exports rising 7% last year. However, trade flows to the US slipped 9% in the first quarter of 2019, suggesting the trade war is starting to bite. According to two academic studies published in March, American businesses and consumers paid almost the entire cost of US trade tariffs imposed on imports from China and elsewhere last year. Economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Princeton University and Columbia University calculated that duties imposed on a wide range of imports, from steel to washing machines, cost US firms and consumers $3bn (£2.3bn) a month in additional tax costs. It also identified a further $1.4bn in losses linked to depressed demand. ---BBC
。Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist, the trade escalation has increased the likelihood for a prolonged economic downturn -- the most reliable killer of bull markets. JPMorgan Chase & Co’s head of cross asset fundamental strategy, John Normand, warned that stocks could fall another 10%. “The risk of an economic downturn has increased substantially,” Wilson said in a note to clients Monday. “While last week’s correction helped move the risk-reward closer to balanced, we think there is likely more downside than upside based on our high conviction view that earnings expectations remain too high by 5-10%.” ---Bloomberg
。After a brief respite, the yield curve is again flashing a bright recession signal. The curve is inverted in 28 places. ---Mish Talk
。Bitcoin surged to more than $8,000 late on Monday, its highest level since July last year, as the cryptocurrency’s rally gained further momentum. There is no real fundamental explanation as to why bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, hit a 10-month high on Monday. ---Reuters （My explaination: Momentum)
。特朗普警告中国不要“大幅”报复。 此前，北京宣布计划将2,493件美国商品的关税提高至25％，这违背了特朗普升级贸易战的警告。 总统预测，中国将试图瞄准美国农民，这是总统政治支持的支柱。 高盛表示，这场争端将导致通货膨胀和美国经济放缓。---彭博
。目前，跨大西洋关系也不太顺畅。 贸易主管Cecilia Malmstrom表示，如果特朗普对汽车进口征收关税，欧盟正在最终确定美国商品清单，并以报复性征税为目标。 他预计将在5月18日前作出决定。欧洲汽车制造商的股票已经受到打击。---彭博
。关税对中国和美国的影响：
中国仍然是美国最大的贸易伙伴，去年出口增长了7％。 然而，到2019年第一季度，美国的贸易流量下滑了9％，这表明贸易战已经开始有负面影响。 根据3月发表的两项学术研究，美国企业和消费者几乎完全支付了去年从中国和其他地方进口的美国贸易关税的全部费用。 来自纽约联邦储备银行，普林斯顿大学和哥伦比亚大学的经济学家计算出，从钢铁到洗衣机等各种进口产品的关税，使美国公司和消费者每月花费30亿美元的额外税费。 它还确定了与需求低迷相关的另外14亿美元的亏损。---BBC
。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）首席股票策略师迈克•威尔逊（Mike Wilson）表示，贸易战升级增加了经济持续低迷的可能性 - 这是牛市最可靠的杀手。 摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase＆Co）的跨资产基本战略负责人约翰诺曼德（John Normand）警告说，股市可能再下跌10％。 “经济衰退的风险大幅增加，”威尔逊在周一给客户的一份报告中说道。 “虽然上周的调整有助于使风险回报更接近均衡，但我们认为，基于我们的高信念，盈利预期仍然过高5-10％，股市可能会出现更多下跌而不是上行。” ---Bloomberg
。在短暂的喘息之后，国债收益率曲线再次闪现明亮的衰退信号。 曲线在28个位置反转。---Mish Talk
。加密货币反弹进一步增强，比特币周一尾盘飙升至超过8,000美元，这是自去年7月以来的最高水平。 关于为什么比特币（原始加密货币）在周一达到10个月以来的高点，没有真正的基本面解释。---路透社 （我的解释：动力）
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