All You Can Get Bearish Talks On Stocks 所有你能得到的股市看跌言论

。Chinese state media and sources say China will give no more ground in the face of Trump’s tariff threats. In a commentary published on its WeChat account on Tuesday, People’s Daily warned the US to “not even think about” concessions. “When things are unfavourable to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back. Do not even think about it,” the commentary said. Liu He’s US trip confirmed for Thursday, and only for two days will be shorter than expected. ---South China Morning Post

。Trade negotiators are scheduled to meet this week in Washington, but recent tensions make it less likely a deal will be agreed to before the Trump administration unleashes a new round of tariffs. Analysts say a deal is still possible, but the risks have risen that there will be more tariffs before a deal can be agreed, and it could then take a lot longer than expected for an agreement to be hammered out. ---CNBC

。DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach tells CNBC , “I think we’re going to keep seeing more tension and I think the 25% tariff bump is better than 50% chance” of happening. If tariffs increase as scheduled on Friday, Gundlach thinks the U.S. stock market will sell off further. He believes U.S. stocks are in a bear market because the NYSE composite index had fallen “over 20% and has failed to return to its high.”---CNBC

。Stocks could drop 10% to 20% if the United States and China dig in during trade talks, according to  Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel. Siegel says the market built in about a 90% chance that trade negotiations would be resolved with China. Since President Trump’s tweets on Sunday threatening to raise tariffs, the market now projects no more than a 70% chance of a resolution, he says. ---CNBC

。A part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve that’s considered a recession indicator by many is heading toward a potentially worrying level once again. The premium of the 10-year yield over the 3-month Treasury bill rate on Tuesday shrank to less than three basis points, a level it last reached in early April. When the rate on the longer-term note actually falls below that of the shorter it’s seen by some observers as a warning sign for an economic slump. This so-called yield curve inversion has, in fact, already taken place earlier this year, though it only remained in place for around a week in March before the premium for longer-dated debt was restored. ---Bloomberg

。VIX futures are linked to the Cboe Volatility Index, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility for the S&P 500 Index and is often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge.” The underlying volatility gauge surged to 19.3 Tuesday, touching the highest since October, as the benchmark U.S. equity measure tumbled 1.4 percent for the biggest sell-off in six weeks. Typically, the VIX futures curve is upward-sloping (in so-called contango) because the outlook for U.S. equities is more uncertain over the long run than the short run. When the curve is downward-sloping (in backwardation), it shows investors are acutely concerned with the near-term risks to U.S. equities. ---Bloomberg

。With the threat of tariffs, analysts say many of Wall Street’s assumption for profits and growth would have to be tossed —suggesting that stocks could be too richly priced near recent highs.
The forward price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 was at 17 times earnings expectations. “That has to come down because growth has to come down...A good part of what went on in this market was predicated on a deal getting done in the first place. If that’s not the case, we have to start taking [earnings] estimates down,” said Art Hogan, National Securities chief market strategist. ---CNBC








。中国官方媒体和消息人士称，面对特朗普的关税威胁，中国不会给予更多让步。在周二发布的微信账号评论中，“人民日报”警告美国“不要心存希望。 “当事情对我们不利时，无论你怎么威胁，我们都不会退缩。刘鹤的周四美国之行确认，仅两天时间将短于预期。 ---南华早报

。贸易谈判代表定于本周在华盛顿举行会议，但最近的紧张局势使特朗普政府释放新一轮关税之前达成协议的可能性降低。分析师表示，妥协仍有可能，但在达成协议之前会有更多的关税的风险已经上升，而且可能需要比预期更长的时间才能达成协议。 --- CNBC

。DoubleLine首席执行官Jeffrey Gundlach告诉CNBC，“我认为我们将继续看到更多的紧张局势，我认为25％的关税的可能性高于50％的机会”。如果关税在周五按计划增加，Gundlach认为美国股市将进一步被抛售。他认为美国股市已处于熊市中，因为纽约证券交易所综合指数z之前下跌“超过20％但未能回到高位。” - --CNBC

。沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米·西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）表示，如果美国和中国在贸易谈判期间拖长，股市可能会下跌10％至20％。西格尔表示，市场反映了与中国解决贸易谈判90％的可能性。他说，由于特朗普总统周日有可能提高关税的推文，因此市场目前反映不会有超过70％的机会获得解决方案。 --- CNBC

。被许多人视为衰退指标的美国国债收益率曲线再次走向可能令人担忧的水平。周二3个月国债收益率对10年期国债收益率萎缩至相隔不到3个基点，这是4月初达到的水平。当长期票据的利率实际上低于较短期的利率时，一些观察人士认为这是经济衰退的警告信号。事实上，这种所谓的收益率曲线反转已经在今年早些时候发生过，在长期国债的溢价恢复之前，它在3月份保持了一周左右。 ---彭博

。VIX期货与Cboe波动率指数挂钩，该指数跟踪标准普尔500指数的30天隐含波动率，通常被称为华尔街的“恐惧指标”。周二VIX飙升至19.3，触及自10月以来的最高点，基准美国股票指数下跌1.4％，为六周以来的最大抛售。通常情况下，VIX期货曲线向上倾斜（在所谓的Contango ），因为从长远来看，美国股市的前景比短期更加不确定。当曲线向下倾斜（Backwardation）时，表明投资者非常关注美国股市的近期风险。 ---彭博

。由于关税的威胁，分析师表示，华尔街对利润和增长的许多假设都不得不被抛弃 - 显示股票价值在近期高点附近过高。标准普尔500指数的前瞻市盈率为盈利预期的17倍。 “这必须降低，因为增长必须降低......这个市场上发生的事情很大一部分取决于贸易谈判成功。如果情况并非如此，我们必须开始降低[收益]估计，“国家证券首席市场策略师Art Hogan表示。 --- CNBC