Friday, May 31, 2019

Bearish Factors For The US Stock Market 美国股市的利空因素

。US-China trade war is intensifying, US-Mexico trade war just started and US-European and US-Japan trade war coming.

。Oil is down sharply ,gold up sharply and 10 year treasury yield hit 2016 low. They are starting to react and/or predicting more troubles to come in the stock market.

。Consistent yield curve inversion lately is predicting economic recession ahead.

。All major US stock indexes are below their 200 day moving averages. These are major technical breaches which indicate more downside. Not mention bearish Dow Triple Top and Double Top for both S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have been confirmed. Market's downside supports are indicated with Fibonacci lines as shown in the following S&P 500 daily chart.

。Sentiment is still bullish as the fear guage VIX is still sitting near recent low level. Investors  have not reflecting enough of the stock market's trouble.

。Seasonally, May to August stock market trend is usually down.











。美中贸易战正在加剧,美墨贸易战刚刚开始,美欧和美日贸易战即将来临。

。石油价格急剧下跌,黄金大幅上涨及10年国债回报率跌至2016年低位。这都显示他们开始反应和/或预测股市会出现更多麻烦。

。近期经常的收益率曲线反转预示着经济衰退或会到来。

。美国所有主要股指均低于200日均线。 这些是主要的技术破坏,显示更多的下跌会到来。  另外道指三重顶,标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数的双顶看跌形态均已得到证实。市场的下跌支撑在下面的标普500 图上以Fibonacci线列出。

。由于恐慌情绪VIX仍处于近期低位附近,市场情绪依然看涨。 投资者显然没有反映出足够的股市问题。

。从季节来看,5月至8月股市的走势通常是下行。





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