Thursday, April 28, 2022

Be Very Worry Of AAPL Earning Report 非常担心 AAPL 的盈利报告

Apple (AAPL) is to report earnings after market close today, its result has the power to make or break the market and I think market reaction is likely to be negative. Followings are some reasons why:

1. Among mega cap tech stocks AAPL drop the least this year. AAPL is down only about 12% year today compares with FB -48%, NVDA -37%, GOOG -20%, AMZN -17%, TSLA -17% and MSFT -16%. AAPL needs to catch up on the downside.

2. AAPL's valuation is very high with trailing PE at 26, forward PE at 23 and next year EPS growth is projected to be only 6.57%. PEG at 2.53% implies stock price is 153% higher than normal.

3. Fundamentally, high inflation, Fed to aggressively hiking rate, continuing Russia/Ukraine war and Covid spread in China and Q1 GDP estimate came in at -1.4% much lower than +1.1% consensus points to contraction in the economy all are bad news for the stock market and AAPL.

4. According to Seeking Alpha's quant ratings, AAPL valuation is F and growth is D-.

5. Technically, AAPL is now below its 20, 50 and 100 moving averages, both short and intermediate term trends are down. It is now trying to hang above its 200 day moving average at 159. Breaking below this level will start a trip to 150 quickly. 



I have positions on AAPL puts, SQQQ, UVXY and SDOW calls.






苹果(AAPL)今天收市后将公布财报,其结果具有决定市场成败的力量,我认为市场反应很可能是负面的。以下是一些原因::

1. 大型科技股中,苹果今年跌幅最小。AAPL 今年仅下跌约 12% 相比于 FB -48%、NVDA -37%、GOOG -20%、AMZN -17%、TSLA -17% 和 MSFT -16%。 AAPL 需要追跌。

2. AAPL 的估值非常高,市盈率为 26,前瞻市盈率为 23,预计明年 EPS 增长率仅为 6.57%。 2.53的 PEG 意味着股价比正常水平高出 153%。

3. 从基本面上说,高通胀、美联储将大幅加息、持续的俄罗斯/乌克兰战争和新冠病毒在中国的蔓延以及今天报出的第一季度 GDP 预期为 -1.4%,远低于普遍认为的+1.1%,经济正在收缩中 ,这些都是对股票市场和AAPL的坏消息。

4. 根据Seeking Alpha的量化分析评分,苹果估值为F,增长为D-。

5. 从技术上看,AAPL 现在低于其 20、50 和 100 移动平均线,短期和中期趋势看跌。它现在正试图在其 200 日移动平均线 159 上方守住。一旦跌破该水平将开始快速跌至 150。



我持有 AAPL 看跌期权、SQQQ、UVXY 和 SDOW 看涨期权头寸。


Sunday, April 24, 2022

GoodDollar (G$), A Free Crypto Currency For Grab GoodDollar (G$),一种可以免费获取的加密货币

GoodDollar is a non-profit funded by donations from famous crypto and stock trading platform eToro. GoodDollar is an anti-poverty protocol and DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) that creates an ongoing money flow of digital basic income that is given away to its members. GoodDollar leverages decentralized finance financial tools to align incentives between those with money and those in need, creating more growth and opportunity for all. GoodDollar is a cryptowallet with the ultimate purpose of reducing wealth inequality using the blockchain technology. The project’s mission is to build a new, global, open-source cryptocurrency to distribute money based on the principles of UBI (Universal Basic Income). Basic income means giving everyone a regular, equal, cash payment, regardless of social standing, wealth, or income. This crypto wallet provides users with daily tokens as a way of distributing UBI. This is what distinguishes GoodDollar from other digital token wallets, which allow for new tokens to be acquired only by transfer or network participation. With GoodDollar, a user of any employment status and income can access tokens without a technical background or prior investment. The solution does not employ a proof of work or any validation mechanism in contrast to the majority of cryptowallets. Since December 2021, GoodDollar distributed so far is 487 millions. Active members so far has reached over 352K. GoodDollar can be traded in Uniswap and is worth $0.0001898 according to Coinmarketcap.com. It will likely be traded in more crypto exchanges in the future.



The GoodDollar slogan:

Crypto for all. Crypto is powering the next financial revolution. Get into the game with GoodDollar, a global movement to bring economic opportunity to all. Free crypto, every day, for all who want it. Start your financial empowerment journey, and learn by doing.

If you believe in economic inclusion and the distribution of prosperity for all, then I invite you to sign up for GoodDollar and start collecting your daily digital UBI.

Use my invite link and receive an extra 500 G$ bonus:

https://wallet.gooddollar.org?inviteCode=2zcVguFHqw&campaign=basic


Following is an article titled "eToro Launches GoodDollar And Begins Delivering Universal Basic Income" in Forbes by Lawrence Wintermeyer for understand GoodDollar:

"With enforced shutdowns driving governments to enact emergency stimulus measures and airdrop funds into citizens’ accounts, Universal Basic Income (UBI), also known as Basic Income has attracted renewed interest. This fact hasn’t escaped the attention of e-trading brokerage eToro, whose launch of corporate social responsibility initiative GoodDollar (G$) aims to bring Basic Income to the mainstream, delivered on the blockchain.

GoodDollar, launched publicly on September 7, and delivers a solution that empowers citizens around the world to claim Basic Income via the G$ coin, a digital currency that any cell phone owner can claim, and convert to local currency.

Basic Income is a long-standing scheme that has recently gained new attention and relevance as governments have begun to give money directly to citizens through financial rescue packages. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, is a departure from past financial stimulus packages for its signature policy of providing each American with a one-time $1,200 cash payment. 

Putting aside the pandemic, the wealth gap continues to widen, with the world’s wealthiest 20 percent of the population owning 94 percent of the planet’s wealth, a topic helping to stimulate the growing interest in Basic Income with thought leaders and policy makers alike.

“Our current economic model doesn't necessarily always work well and generate good and there are two reasons for that: One is the level of inequality that is driven by how the system works, where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer; and the second is the lack of transparency of how money is being used and moved around the system,” says Yoni Assia, the chief executive officer of eToro.

The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted an urgent need to protect those in society whose livelihoods are being made insecure because of the crisis. It is a global health crisis driving a global economic crisis, unprecedented in modern times and deemed a once in a generation phenomenon. It appears no governments or global agencies have a comprehensive playbook for successfully managing the crisis, we are writing it as we go along.   

Basic Income pilots have popped up all across the United States and other parts of the world with payments being dispensed to citizens to meet their basic needs.

In July, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, a vocal advocate of Basic Income, pledged $3 million to support Mayors for a Guaranteed Income (MGI), a coalition of mayors from U.S. cities including Los Angeles and Atlanta. Dorsey, who months earlier moved $1 billion of Square stock to charitable fund Start Small LLC, called the initiative a “tool to close the wealth and income gap, level systemic race and gender inequalities, and create economic security for families.”

Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg has also thrown his weight behind Basic Income in the past, as has Tesla’s TSLA -0.4% Elon Musk and former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang. Yang's non-governmental-organisation Humanity Forward has raised millions of dollars from Jack Dorsey to support Basic Income pilots and some of the emerging political candidates that embrace the idea.

It is not just U.S. philanthropists with a focus on Basic Income either. In a recent groundbreaking study published by the University of Oxford, led by Professor Timothy Garton Ash, 71 percent of the respondents across Europe supported the idea of Basic Income, a social policy once considered radical. As more countries examine the benefits of Basic Income to society, the World Bank has recently issued a guide to helping to navigate concepts, evidence and practices.

Universal Basic Income Made Possible by Blockchain

Economically empowering people is the central tenet of Basic Income with direct, unconditional payments giving citizens the ability to purchase groceries, clothing, and vital medicine for their families. How to best get the payments to citizens in a safe and reliable way is one of the big questions that needs to be addressed.  

Many in the U.S. believe the current systems of getting money to people, like checks in the post, are unfit for the job and emphasize the glitches and programming errors that have prevented tens of millions from receiving their Covid-19 stimulus checks.

Governments simply are not set up to deliver cash to citizens at scale.

In May, Andrew Yang advanced the case for a “citizenship portal” where individuals could freely access benefits, view tax information, renew licenses and connect bank accounts. Scandinavian countries already have many of these systems in place, linking citizens’ and their bank accounts, taxes, business, and health records. Now, governments around the world are looking at these models and new technologies to underpin new solutions.

Blockchain and distributed ledger technology (DLT) is emerging as a promising option for the next generation of infrastructure for government tax and payment infrastructure due to its security and transparency in enforcing an accurate ledger of transaction data between large numbers of counterparties. As importantly, the secure speed you can move money around on the network and globally is a social innovation.

Basic Income isn’t the only idea under consideration that represents a departure from conventional thinking. The booming decentralized finance (Defi) sector aims to shake up the current financial system by introducing accessible new solutions to long-standing problems such as wealth inequality, centralization, monetary exclusion and high transaction fees.

Defi products such as lending, borrowing, staking, and trading enable users to interact directly on secure, decentralized protocols, while novel blockchain-powered identity solutions may better help governments distribute funds fairly and transparently. One of the often-cited use cases of Defi is to bank the 1.7 billion people in the world unbanked and left behind by the traditional financial system.

Promoted as finance for the 21st century, Defi utilizes permissionless smart contracts on the blockchain. The DeFi market is growing rapidly with an estimated $15 billion of value currently locked in self-executing financial products built via computer-code that often “cuts out the middlemen.”

GoodDollar Is A Novel Basic Income Solution

GoodDollar is the result of a desire to build a Basic Income product that is detached and not controlled by one specific government while benefitting from the governance and support mechanisms of the public blockchain network.

“When researching GoodDollar and the concept of Basic Income, what we realized is that the problem with the current economic model is the definition of the interest rate, which actually goes to those who have the most money. If we want to create a more fair and equal economy, we needed to take the concept of the interest rate and just divide it differently.

“If the interest rate and system is not controlled by a country, how is it governed and how can you trust it eventually? Blockchain is a very clear answer - decentralized finance enables us to build this as something which is a common good, which is open source, which is public, transparent, governed by smart contracts in the code, and therefore could potentially scale globally,” says Assia.

In a few short days, GoodDollar has onboarded thousands of users from over 40 countries including regions with large numbers of unbanked citizens including South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, Argentina, and Venezuela. All of the minting and transactions of G$ coins are visible on-chain, with side-chains enabling low transaction costs.

As a part of the ongoing solution, the project aims to provide the infrastructure for the deployment of Basic Income at local, state and national level, and to bring in tens of millions of citizens.

COVID-19 has accelerated the need for a solution to the economic crisis. It is not just those citizens who have been traditionally financially excluded that can benefit from Basic Income, the pandemic has created vast unemployment in the working and middle classes around the world.

“We are truly fortunate at eToro to have experienced significant growth in our business during the crisis, but we realize that the financial inequality gap in society is widening at a quicker rate due to COVID-19. There are significantly more people unemployed around the world today than nine months ago, and that focuses us on further delivering solutions, now. We want people to go to the website and claim their GoodDollars, find usage for them and tell the world about it,” says Assai." 





GoodDollar 是一个由著名加密货币及股票交易平台eToro 捐款资助的非营利组织。 GoodDollar 是一个反贫困协议和 DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization去中心化的自治组织),它创造了持续的数字基本收入资金流,并赠送给其成员。 GoodDollar 利用去中心化金融金融工具来协调有钱人和有需要的人之间的激励措施,为所有人创造更多的增长和机会。 GoodDollar 是一个加密钱包,其最终目的是使用区块链技术减少财富不平等。该项目的使命是建立一种新的、全球性的、开源的加密货币,以根据 UBI(通用基本收入)的原则分配资金。基本收入意味着给每个人定期、平等的现金支付,无论其社会地位、财富或收入如何。该加密钱包为用户提供日常代币作为分发 UBI 的一种方式。这就是 GoodDollar 与其他数字代币钱包的不同之处,前者允许通过转移或网络参与来获取新代币。使用 GoodDollar,任何就业状况和收入的用户都可以在没有技术背景或事先投资的情况下获取代币。与大多数加密钱包相比,该解决方案不采用工作证明或任何验证机制。自 2021 年 12 月至今,GoodDollar 已分发了4.87 亿枚。到目前为止,活跃会员已超过 352K。根据 Coinmarketcap.com,GoodDollar 可以在 Uniswap 交易,价值 0.0001898 美元。未来可能会在更多的加密货币交易所进行交易。



GoodDollar 的口号:

GoodDollar (G$)是所有人的加密货币。加密货币正在推动下一次金融革命。与 GoodDollar 一起参与游戏,这是一项为所有人带来经济机会的全球运动。每天为所有想要的人提供免费的加密货币。开始您的财务授权之旅,并在实践中学习。

用下面的链接开始每天免费收取GoodDollar币:

如果您相信经济包容和所有人的繁荣分配,那么我邀请您注册 GoodDollar 并开始收集您的每日数字 UBI。使用我的邀请链接并获得额外的 500 G$ 奖金:

https://wallet.gooddollar.org?inviteCode=2zcVguFHqw&campaign=basic


以下是 Lawrence Wintermeyer 在福布斯发表的一篇题为“eToro 推出 GoodDollar 并开始提供普遍基本收入”的文章,以了解 Good Dollar:

“随着强制关闭促使政府制定紧急刺激措施并将资金空投到公民账户中,通用基本收入 (UBI),也称为基本收入,再次引起了人们的兴趣。这一事实并没有逃脱电子交易经纪商 eToro 的关注,其发起的企业社会责任倡议 GoodDollar (G$) 旨在将基本收入带入主流,在区块链上交付。

GoodDollar 于 9 月 7 日公开推出,它提供了一种解决方案,使世界各地的公民能够通过 G$ 硬币(一种任何手机所有者都可以索取的数字货币)索取基本收入,并转换为当地货币。

基本收入是一项长期存在的计划,随着政府开始通过金融救助计划直接向公民提供资金,该计划最近获得了新的关注和相关性。 《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全 (CARES) 法案》背离了过去的金融刺激计划,因为它的标志性政策是向每个美国人提供一次性 1,200 美元的现金支付。

撇开大流行不谈,贫富差距继续扩大,世界上最富有的 20% 的人口拥有地球 94% 的财富,这一话题有助于激发思想领袖和政策制定者对基本收入日益增长的兴趣。

“我们当前的经济模式不一定总是运作良好并产生良好的效果,原因有两个:一个是由系统运作方式驱动的不平等程度,富人变得更富,穷人变得更穷;第二个是资金的使用和在系统中流动的方式缺乏透明度,”eToro 的首席执行官 Yoni Assia 说。

COVID-19 危机凸显了保护社会中因危机而生计变得不安全的人们的迫切需要。这是一场全球健康危机,引发了一场全球经济危机,这在现代是前所未有的,被认为是一代人的现象。似乎没有政府或全球机构拥有成功管理危机的综合手册,我们正在编写它。

基本收入试点已经在美国和世界其他地区出现,向公民发放款项以满足他们的基本需求。

7 月,推特首席执行官杰克·多尔西 (Jack Dorsey) 是基本收入的倡导者,他承诺提供 300 万美元支持市长保障收入 (MGI),这是一个由洛杉矶和亚特兰大等美国城市的市长组成的联盟。 Dorsey 几个月前将 10 亿美元的 Square 股票转移到慈善基金 Start Small LLC,称该计划是“缩小财富和收入差距、平衡系统性种族和性别不平等并为家庭创造经济保障的工具。”

Facebook 的马克扎克伯格过去也支持基本收入,特斯拉的 TSLA 埃隆马斯克和前民主党总统候选人安德鲁杨也是如此。杨的非政府组织 Humanity Forward 从 Jack Dorsey 那里筹集了数百万美元,以支持基本收入试点和一些接受这一想法的新兴政治候选人。

关注基本收入的不仅仅是美国慈善家。在由蒂莫西·加顿·阿什教授领导的牛津大学最近发表的一项开创性研究中,欧洲 71% 的受访者支持基本收入的想法,这是一项曾经被认为是激进的社会政策。随着越来越多的国家审视基本收入对社会的好处,世界银行最近发布了一份指南,帮助了解概念、证据和实践。

区块链使普遍基本收入成为可能

赋予人民经济权力是基本收入的核心原则,通过直接、无条件的付款,公民能够为家人购买杂货、衣服和重要药品。如何以安全可靠的方式最好地向公民付款是需要解决的大问题之一。

美国的许多人认为,当前向人们提供资金的系统(例如邮寄支票)不适合这项工作,并强调了导致数千万人无法收到 Covid-19 刺激支票的故障和编程错误。

政府根本无法大规模地向公民提供现金。

5 月,Andrew Yang 提出了一个“公民门户”的案例,个人可以自由地获取福利、查看税务信息、更新许可证和连接银行账户。斯堪的纳维亚国家已经建立了许多这样的系统,将公民及其银行账户、税收、商业和健康记录联系起来。现在,世界各地的政府都在研究这些模型和新技术,以支持新的解决方案。

区块链和分布式账本技术 (DLT) 正在成为政府税收和支付基础设施的下一代基础设施的一个有前途的选择,因为它在执行大量交易对手之间交易数据的准确分类账时具有安全性和透明度。同样重要的是,您可以在网络上和全球范围内转移资金的安全速度是一项社会创新。

基本收入并不是唯一一个与传统思维背道而驰的想法。蓬勃发展的去中心化金融 (Defi) 部门旨在通过为财富不平等、中心化、货币排斥和高额交易费用等长期存在的问题引入可访问的新解决方案来改变当前的金融体系。

借贷、抵押和交易等 Defi 产品使用户能够直接在安全、去中心化的协议上进行交互,而基于区块链的新型身份解决方案可以更好地帮助政府公平透明地分配资金。 Defi 经常被引用的用例之一是为世界上 17 亿没有银行账户并被传统金融体系抛在后面的人提供银行服务。

作为 21 世纪的金融,Defi 在区块链上使用无需许可的智能合约。 DeFi 市场正​​在迅速增长,目前估计有 150 亿美元的价值锁定在通过计算机代码构建的自动执行金融产品中,这些产品通常“切断中间商”。

GoodDollar 是一种新颖的基本收入解决方案

GoodDollar 是希望建立一种独立的、不受特定政府控制的基本收入产品,同时受益于公共区块链网络的治理和支持机制的结果。

“在研究 GoodDollar 和基本收入的概念时,我们意识到当前经济模型的问题在于利率的定义,这实际上是针对那些拥有最多钱的人。如果我们想创造一个更加公平和平等的经济,我们需要采用利率的概念,并对其进行不同的划分。

“如果利率和制度不受一个国家控制,它是如何治理的,你最终如何信任它?区块链是一个非常明确的答案——去中心化金融使我们能够将其构建为一种公共利益,它是开源的、公开的、透明的、由代码中的智能合约管理的,因此有可能在全球范围内扩展,”亚西亚说。

在短短几天内,GoodDollar 已经吸引了来自 40 多个国家/地区的数千名用户,其中包括南非、尼日利亚、加纳、肯尼亚、塞内加尔、阿根廷和委内瑞拉等拥有大量无银行账户公民的地区。 G$ 硬币的所有铸造和交易都在链上可见,侧链可降低交易成本。

作为正在进行的解决方案的一部分,该项目旨在为在地方、州和国家层面部署基本收入提供基础设施,并吸引数千万公民。

COVID-19 加速了解决经济危机的需求。不仅仅是那些传统上被排除在经济上的公民可以从基本收入中受益,这种流行病还在世界各地的工人阶级和中产阶级中造成了大量失业。

“在 eToro,我们真的很幸运,在危机期间我们的业务经历了显着增长,但我们意识到,由于 COVID-19,社会中的金融不平等差距正在以更快的速度扩大。与九个月前相比,当今世界各地的失业人数要多得多,这让我们现在专注于进一步提供解决方案。我们希望人们访问该网站并领取他们的 GoodDollars,找到他们的用途并告诉全世界,”Assai 说。”


Saturday, April 23, 2022

气管切开插管的类型

气管切开插管的类型

气管造口(trach)管是插入气管造口(颈部和气管(气管)上的孔)的弯曲管。有不同类型的气管切开插管,它们的某些特征因不同目的而有所不同。这些是由不同的公司制造的。但是,无论哪家公司制造,特定类型的气管切开插管都是相同的。

常用的气管切开插管由三部分组成:带法兰的外套管(颈板)、内套管和闭孔。外套管是保持气管切开的外管。颈板从外管的侧面延伸,并有孔以将布带或魔术贴绑在脖子上。内套管安装在外套管内。它有一个锁以防止它被咳出来,并且它被移除以进行清洁。闭孔器用于插入气管造口管。它安装在管内,以提供一个光滑的表面,在插入时引导气管造口管。

有不同类型的气管切开插管可供使用,应为患者提供最适合他/她需要的插管。这些管子更换的频率将取决于管子的类型,并且可能在冬季或夏季月份发生变化。从业者应向专业从业者和/或制造商寻求建议。


1. 带一次性内套管的袖口管 Cuffed Tube with Disposable Inner Cannula
用于获得闭合回路进行通风




与呼吸机一起使用时,袖带应充气。
袖带应充气到足以使漏气最少。
如果患者使用说话阀门,袖带应该放气。
袖带压力应每天检查两次。
内套管是一次性的。

2. 带可重复使用内套管的袖口管 Cuffed Tube with Reusable Inner Cannula
用于获得闭合回路进行通风





与呼吸机一起使用时,袖带应充气。
袖带应充气到足以使漏气最少。
如果患者使用说话阀门,袖带应该放气。
袖带压力应每天检查两次。
内套管不是一次性的。 彻底清洁后可以重复使用。


3. 带一次性内套管的无袖管 Cuffless Tube with Disposable Inner Cannula
用于有气管问题的患者
用于准备拔管的患者




如果患者即将拔管,请保存拔管塞。
患者可能能够进食并且可能能够在没有说话瓣膜的情况下说话。
内套管是一次性的。


4. 带可重复使用内套管的袖口管 Cuffed Tube with Reusable Inner Cannula
用于有气管问题的患者
用于准备拔管的患者




如果患者即将拔管,请保存拔管塞。
患者可能能够进食并且可能能够在没有说话瓣膜的情况下说话。
内套管不是一次性的。 彻底清洁后可以重复使用。


5. 有孔套囊气管切开插管  Fenestrated Cuffed Tracheostomy Tube
用于使用呼吸机但无法忍受说话阀门说话的患者





在开窗(孔)部位形成肉芽肿的风险很高。
吸入分泌物的风险更高。
可能难以使患者充分通气。


6. 有孔无袖气管切开插管 Fenestrated Cuffless Tracheostomy Tube
用于使用说话瓣膜有困难的患者




在开窗(孔)部位形成肉芽肿的风险很高。


7. 金属气管切开插管 Metal Tracheostomy Tube
不再经常使用。 许多多年前接受气管切开术的患者仍然选择继续使用金属气管切开管。



患者无法进行 MRI 检查。
在进行金属检测筛查之前,需要通知机场的安检人员。

Friday, April 22, 2022

Things Are Looking Bad For The Stock Market 美股的情况看起来很糟糕

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell backed moving more quickly to combat inflation and said a 0.5% rate increase would be "on the table". His comments sparked a tech stock sell off yesterday with the Nasdaq Composite came down over 2%. Today, Nomura analyst says FOMC will hike 0.5% in May then follow by 0.75% increase in both June and July. This caused the stock market to deteriorate further this morning with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.74%, 1.82% and 1.61% respectively at 9:10 AM West Coast Time.

Other negative news for the market are: Bank of America says AAPL could miss on top and bottom line on its Q1 report; VZ drops after mixed Q1 report and lowered outlook for full fiscal year 2022; HCA Q1 revenue is better than expectation but earning missed,  trimmed its 2022 guidance sparks sell off among hospital peers; GPS slides after analysts cut estimates with confidence fading. GPS announced the departure of Old Navy Brand CEO and lowered sales guidance for Q1. GPS's weakness is dragging down the retail sector stocks; Other blue chip stock losers are CAT, WBA, NKE, UNH and V with each down more than 2%.

Many major corporations are reporting Q1 results next week. They include KO on Monday,  GOOG , MSFT, MMM, GE and UPS on Tuesday, BA and FB on Wednesday, AAPL, AMZN, TWTR, MRK, BMY, CAT and MCD on Thursday. With high inflation, interest rate hikes, Russia/Ukraine war and China Covid lock down, it is hard to believe companies will project optimistic outlooks when they report Q1 results. 

Technically, The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are all below their 20,50,100 and 200 moving averages, all trends for them are now down.  It looks very likely that all the above 3 major indexes are destine to test their recent lows. These lows ate Dow 32806, S&P 500 4115 and Nasdaq Composite 12555.







Following images are sourced from Finviz.com (Updated at 10:48 AM West Coast Time):








周四,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)支持加快行动以对抗通胀,并表示将“提上议事日程”加息0.5%。他的言论昨天引发科技股抛售,纳斯达克综合指数下跌超过 2%。今天,野村分析师表示,FOMC 将在 5 月加息 0.5%,然后在 6 月和 7 月各加息 0.75%。这导致今天早上股市进一步恶化,道琼斯指数、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数在西海岸时间上午 9:10 分别下跌 1.74%、1.82% 和 1.61%。

其他对市场不利的消息是:美国银行表示,苹果公司第一季度报告的营业额和盈利都可能会小于预期;在第一季度报告喜忧参半并下调 2022 财年展望后,VZ 下跌; HCA Q1 收入好于预期,但盈利未达预期,下调了 2022 年的指引,引发医院同行的被抛售;分析师对GPS的信心消退而下调估计,GPS 大跌。 GPS 宣布 Old Navy Brand 首席执行官离职,并下调了第一季度的销售指导。 GPS的疲软正在拖累零售板块的股票;其他跌幅跌超过 2%的蓝筹股 有CAT、WBA、NKE、UNH 和 V。

许多大公司将在下周公布第一季度业绩。它们包括周一的 KO,周二的 GOOG、MSFT、MMM、GE 和 UPS,周三的 BA 和 FB,周四的 AAPL、AMZN、TWTR、MRK、BMY、CAT 和 MCD。随着高通胀、加息、俄罗斯/乌克兰战争和中国新冠疫情的封锁,很难相信公司在报告第一季度业绩时会表现出乐观的前景,无论第一季财报有多好。

从技术上讲,道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数均低于 20,50,100 和 200 点移动平均线,它们的所有趋势现在都在下跌。看来,上述三大主要指数很有可能都将测试其近期低点。这些低是道琼斯指数 32806、标准普尔 500 指数 4115 和纳斯达克综合指数 12555。







以下图片来自 Finviz.com (西按时间早上10:48 更新):







Wednesday, April 20, 2022

More NFLX Type Of Shocks May Come 更多 NFLX 类似的冲击可能会出现

Netflix (NFLX) lost 200K subscribers in the first quarter, well short of its scaled-back guidance for additions of 2.5 million subscribers, and projects to lose 2 millions in the current quarter. NFLX blamed inflation, the Ukraine war and fierce competition for the subscriber loss and predicted deeper losses ahead. This news shocked everybody and stock dropped sharply by down over 37%. 9 analysts downgrade NFLX this morning. NFLX nose dive also dragging down other streaming-related stocks, including Walt Disney (DIS -5%), AMZN (-2.51%), ROKU (-6.3%),  and FUBO (-7.3%).  Meanwhile Proctor and Gamble (PG +2.7%) and IBM (+6.3%) both reported better than expected earnings and are supportive to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Nasdaq Composite is down 0.8% while the Dow and S&P 500 are up 0.94% and 0.33% respectively.  Beware, another shock may be coming after market close as Tesla (TSLA -3.8% ) reports earnings. Lessons from NFLX's 69% from all time high and many  so called disruptive tech growth stocks with similar losses from their all time highs,  more bad news may be coming. It's time to avoid high tech growth stocks!

Technically. the Nasdaq Composite failed at its 50 day moving average resistance and is still on course to test its March low of 12555. The sharp drop in NFLX will likely bring in more weakness near term and is a stock to avoid. 









Netflix (NFLX) 在第一季度失去了 20 万用户,远低于其缩减后的 250 万用户增加的预期,并且预计本季度将失去 200 万用户。 NFLX 将用户流失归咎于通货膨胀、乌克兰战争和激烈的竞争,并预测未来会有更严重的账户流失。这一消息震惊了所有人,股价暴跌超过 37%。今天早上有 9 位分析师下调了 NFLX 的评级。 NFLX 暴跌也拖累了其他与流媒体相关的股票,包括沃尔特迪斯尼 (DIS -5%)、亚马逊 (-2.51%)、ROKU (-6.3%) 和 FUBO (-7.3%)。与此同时,宝洁(PG +2.7%)和IBM(+6.3%)均公布了好于预期的收益,并支持道琼斯工业平均指数。纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.8%,而道琼斯指数和标准普尔 500 指数则分别上涨 0.94% 和 0.33%。从 NFLX 的从历史最高点下跌了69% 以及许多受欢迎的所谓颠覆性科技成长股从历史最高点的类似损失的教训,更多的坏消息可能会出现。请注意,随着特斯拉(TSLA -3.8%)盘后公布财报,收盘后可能会带来另一波负面冲击。是时候避开高科技成长股了!

从技术上讲。纳斯达克综合指数未能突破其 50 天移动平均线阻力位,仍在走向测试其 3 月低点 12555的路途中。NFLX 的大幅下跌可能会在短期内带来更多的疲软,是需要避免参与的股票。








Sunday, April 17, 2022

Another promising free mobile phone mining new coin after Pi coin, Ti 继Pi币后的另外一个有前途的免费手机挖矿新币Ti

Ti Chain is a public chain project in the United States and the United Kingdom. It is a blockchain focused on Metaverse (metaverse) and NFT (non-fungible Token). Ti Chain was officially launched the APP on March 15, 2022, with a total supply of only 80 million Ti. The computing power (ordinary) mining availability is only 20 million TI, and the mining cycle is 5 years, which will be linearly halved according to the number of mining users. More than 250,000 people have registered 10 days after mining was available last month. After registration, in addition to mining Ti coins, there are also airdrop opportunities for other mainstream coins. The mainstream coin airdropped on April 4 is TRX. Ti Chain has obtained UK commercial and US NFA licenses. Between May 15th to June 5th, Ti will be launched on Sunswap, HitBtc, Gate, OKX(OKX is under negotiation) decentralized exchanges. Ti Chain is recognized as the strongest competitor to Ethereum, Ti solves the problems of Ethereum's scalability, high fees and transaction speed, and will gradually replace Ethereum's market share in smart contract platforms.

Crypto & NFT promoter Taylor Musk (not Elon Musk's younger brother) with 1.6 million Twitter followers publicly promoted Ti Chain as follows:


To participate in free Ti coin mining, use the following link to join with the invitation code:

Invitation code: ijjcwd

Join link: https://www.tichain.cc/#/?code=ijjcwd









Ti Chain是美国和英国的公链项目,是一个专注于Metaverse(元宇宙)和NFT (不可替代纪念品)的区块链。 Ti Chain 已于 2022 年 3 月 15 日正式上线 APP,总供应量只有 8000 万 Ti。算力(普通)挖矿只有2000万TI,挖矿周期为5年,会根据挖矿用户数线性减半。自上月开始可以挖矿后10天已经有超过25万人注册。注册后除了挖到Ti币外还有获得其它主流币的空投机会。4月4日空投的主流币是TRX。Ti Chain 已获得英国商业和美国 NFA 牌照。 将于5月15日至6月5日间上线Sunswap、HitBtc、Gate、OKX去中心化交易所(OKX正在协商中)。Ti Chain 被公认为以太坊 (Ethereum)最强的竞争公链,解决了以太坊的可扩展性,高费用和交易速度的问题,并将会逐步取代以太坊在智能合约平台的市场份额。

拥有160万推特粉丝的加密和 NFT 发起人Taylor Musk (不是Elon Musk的弟弟)公开推介Ti Chain如下:


中译如下:

泰勒马斯克

@Taylorcrypto_·

4月13日

TIChain被公认为2022年最大的黑马公链,现已开放全球推广。 报名参加活动即可获得TI币奖励和海量主流币空投。


参加免费挖Ti币可用以下链接用邀请码加入:

邀请码:ijjcwd

加入链接:https://www.tichain.cc/#/?code=ijjcwd












继Pi币后的另外一个有前途的免费手机挖矿新币Ti

Ti Chain是美国和英国的公链项目,是一个专注于Metaverse(元宇宙)和NFT (不可替代纪念品)的区块链。 Ti Chain 已于 2022 年 3 月 15 日正式上线 APP,总供应量只有 8000 万 Ti。算力(普通)挖矿只有2000万TI,挖矿周期为5年,会根据挖矿用户数线性减半。自上月开始可以挖矿后10天已经有超过25万人注册。注册后除了挖到Ti币外还有获得其它主流币的空投机会。4月4日空投的主流币是TRX。Ti Chain 已获得英国商业和美国 NFA 牌照。 将于5月15日至6月5日间上线Sunswap、HitBtc、Gate、OKX去中心化交易所(OKX正在协商中)。Ti Chain 被公认为以太坊 (Ethereum)最强的竞争公链,解决了以太坊的可扩展性,高费用和交易速度的问题,并将会逐步取代以太坊在智能合约平台的市场份额。

拥有160万推特粉丝的Taylor Musk (不是Elon Musk的弟弟)公开推介Ti Chain如下:


中译如下:

泰勒马斯克

@Taylorcrypto_·

4月13日

TIChain被公认为2022年最大的黑马公链,现已开放全球推广。 报名参加活动即可获得TI币奖励和海量主流币空投。


参加免费挖Ti币可用以下链接用邀请码加入:

 邀请码:ijjcwd

加入链接:https://www.tichain.cc/#/?code=ijjcwd



Saturday, April 16, 2022

免费挖PI币致富可能会在6月28日实现

 Pi Network 在2019年3月14日开始发展,现在已经是三年有多了。Pi Network这三年来的成就有目共睹。目前已经有3300万人在挖Pi币, 遍布全球200个国家,人数并且还在快速继续增加之中。从Pi App的进步可见Pi Network系统已越来越完善并且非常接近开放主网及定价易货的时候了(或许会在2022年6月28日)。可以肯定的是到时Pi 币也将会是各个加密货币交易所争相加为可交易的热门币种的对象。 Pi Network 也将是最新,最先进,最完善及最多人用的加密货币。在加密货币市场上将掀起一番热潮。对Pi Network后知后觉的我在2021年11月才认识及开始挖币,不过每天都能依时点击“闪电”重启挖币,也挖到令人满意的数量。在此敦促已加入的Pi 友再接再厉勤奋挖币以获得将来更大的回报。如果还没参与Pi 免费 手机挖矿,您只需使用此链接 https://minepi.com/kimwpinet 安装 App,并使用 kimwpinet 作为邀请码,开始 24 小时开采您自己的 Pi 币。并请在此博客左上方搜索 Pi 以获取更多有关 Pi 信息的博文。

以下是YouTube近期有关Pi较为精彩的视频供大家参考:

1. Pi network 當你還在懷疑 Pi的時候,派的熱度已經爆發了!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FY24pJY_skQ

2. Pi network 大佬分享: 每天點點閃電就來錢, 別人都是傻子嗎

!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMsa6DE8tS8

3. Pi network最新共识价:1π=6270美金!获得币安交易所支持? 



4. Pi network最新消息!Pi的公开代码中赫然出现币安和欧易交易所的网址!离上市交易还远吗?国内商家透露,很可能五月份开始易货,六月全面开放!



5. Pi network最新消息,易货价格1π=1000美金起步,是真的吗?我们来分析一下

6. Pi network喊价格有没有用?1000美金共识价很高吗?今天好好说说这些问题https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMKmq3f8kZM

Thursday, April 14, 2022

Tech Stock Charts Are Getting Uglier科技股图形越来越难看

The stock market is volatile. After yesterday's strong bounce, the Nasdaq Composite Index is coming right back down today after failed to reach its 50 day moving average level at 13740. Nasdaq is still below its 20,50,100 and 200 day moving averages, its trends are solidly down. $compq's CCI indicator has dropped below -100 is indicative of accelerated down turn is to come. Nasdaq is still on course to go down to test its March low at 12555. 



Today's Nasdaq is dragged down by TSLA after Elon Musk made a takeover offer to TWTR at $54 a share, and this raises speculation that he may need to sell some TSLA stocks to finance the deal. TSLA is down over 3.5%. AAPL is down over 2% as the latest version of the iPhone SE is seeing "lackluster demand," according to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.  NVDA is down 2.6% even though Credit Suisse analyst John Pitzer said he believes there is upside in the chip industry in the wake of negative investor sentiment so far this year. Other tech stocks that are down more than 2% are: AMD, INTC, AMZN and CRM. As shown in the following tech stock charts, all are below their 20 and 50 day moving averages, their trends are down. 










股市极其波动。 继昨日强劲反弹后,纳斯达克综合指数在未能超越50日均线13740阻力水平后,今日再次回落。纳斯达克仍低于20、50,100和200日均线,趋势看跌。$compq 的 CCI 指标已跌至 -100 以下,显示加速下行趋势即将到来。它仍将向下测试其 3 月份低点 12555。




在埃隆马斯克以每股 54 美元的价格向 TWTR 提出收购后,这引发了他可能需要出售一些 TSLA 股票来为这笔交易融资的猜测,导致 TSLA 下跌超过 3.5%而拖累今天纳斯达克指数的下跌。 TF International Securities 分析师 Ming-Chi Kuo 表示,由于最新版本的 iPhone SE 出现“需求低迷”,苹果股价因而下跌超过 2%。 NVDA 下跌 2.6%,尽管瑞士信贷分析师 John Pitzer 表示,他认为在今年迄今为止投资者情绪低迷之后,芯片行业存在上行空间。 其他跌幅超过 2% 的科技股有:AMD、INTC、AMZN 和 CRM等。以下科技股图表所示,它们均低于 20 日和 50 日移动平均线,趋势向下。






Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Nasdaq Composite Has Multiple Sell Signals纳斯达克综合指数有多种卖出信号

US March CPI rose 8.5% year-on-year, higher than the 8.4% expected, and the core CPI rose 6.5%, lower than the 6.6% expected. Both indicators were the highest in 40 years. U.S. stocks rose this morning as the core CPI did not rise as much as expectation. The Nasdaq Composite rallied in the morning to fill the high of yesterday's down gap and then retreated sharply and has generated multiple  sell signals. Now the Nasdaq remains below the 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages and is still in a bearish trend. It seems that it is inevitable that March low of 12555 level will be tested. Here are the various sell signals:

1. The price of the Nasdaq is below the 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, its long, medium and short-term trends are down.

2. The morning rise filled the high of yesterday's down gap and then fell sharply. This is a classic reversal down sell signal.

3. The commodity channel indicator CCI fell below the 0 line and touched the -100 line, it's indicative of weakness.

4. On Balance Volume OBV peaked and is trending down. This is indicative of buying overshadowed by selling.








美国3月份CPI比去年同期上升8.5%高于8.4%的预期,核心CPI上升6.5%低于6.6%的预期。这两种指标均为40年来最高。美股今早因核信CPI没有预期高而上升。纳斯达克综合指数早上上升填补了昨日缺口的高位后随即大幅回落而发出多种卖出信号。现在纳指仍然低于20,50及200日均线而保持看跌趋势。看来下探3月低位12555已无可避免。下面是各种卖出信号:

1. 纳指价位低于20,50,100及200日均线,长中短期趋势均看跌。

2. 早上上升填补了昨日下跌缺口的高位后随即大幅回落。这是一个经典的反转向下卖出信号。

3. 商品通道指标CCI跌穿0线及碰到-100线, 表现弱势。

4. On Balance Volume OBV 见顶下跌,显示卖盘盖过卖盘。





Monday, April 11, 2022

Today's News Round Up今日新闻总汇

1. “The spread of Covid in China is the most bearish item affecting the market,” said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates. “If [Covid] spreads throughout China resulting in a significant number of lockdowns, the impact on oil markets could be substantial.” China is the world’s largest oil importer, and the Shanghai area consumes roughly 4% of the country’s crude, according to Lipow. ---CNBC 

2.  Ukraine's president said the country is "ready" for a major Russian offensive in the east of the country, as he accused Moscow of lying to deflect the blame for the war.

Russia has appointed a new general to direct the war after troops failed to take Kyiv, according to US and European officials.

Nine evacuation corridors were agreed for Sunday, as the death toll rose from a Russian missile strike last week on a train station packed with evacuees.

Ukraine's foreign minister said it would be "extremely difficult" to even think about negotiations with Russia following the atrocities committed in the town of Bucha and at the train station. ---CNN 04/11/2022

3. Factors for this morning's market weakness: Technical pressure after the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average (4494) last Friday, the Russia-Ukraine situation that has no end in sight, the COVID lockdowns in Shanghai that have pressured oil prices ($94.38, -3.83, -3.9%), and a wait-and-see mindset for the week's economic data and earnings reports.---Briefing.com 04/11/2022On 

4. On Tuesday, traders are set to receive the latest Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to show a staggering 8.4% year-over-year increase in prices for the biggest leap since 1982. And this comes as Fed officials have increasingly talked of larger-than-average 50 basis-point interest rate hikes this year to help bring down prices. Last week, the Fed's March meeting minutes also showed the central bank was gearing up to begin rolling off assets from its $9 trillion balance sheet, in a further move removing financial market support and pivoting away from pandemic-era accommodative policies. ---Yahoo 04/11/2022

5. Today's Fed official speeches: All times are Eastern. 9:30 Raphael Bostic, 12:00 John Williams, 12:45 Charles Evans. ---Wall Street Breakfast 04/11/2022

6. ECB is to meet and decide on monetary policy on Thursday. At their last meeting in March, the ECB adopted a more hawkish position than had been expected by confirming a faster reduction in their asset purchases. That's set to see APP purchases fall from €40bn in April to €30bn in May and then €20bn in June, with the possibility of ending purchases altogether in Q3. Since then however, inflation has accelerated by even more than the consensus expected, with the flash CPI estimate for the Euro Area at +7.5% in March, which is the highest since the formation of the single currency, and up from +5.9% in February. In terms of what to look for this time round, Deutsche Bank economists write in their preview that they're not expecting much change to the ECB's message. Instead, they think that when the new staff forecasts are available in June, they'll announce that APP purchases will end in July, ahead of a liftoff in the policy rate in September, so an underlying direction of travel that's becoming clear. ---ZeroHedge 04/11/2022

7. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is in the middle of a “fundamental transformation” and planning a massive military buildup along Russian borders. The Telegraph reported, "Nato is drawing up plans to deploy a permanent full-scale military force on its border in an effort to combat future Russian aggression following the invasion of Ukraine, the alliance's secretary general has revealed." Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said NATO will undergo a major “reset” and plans to put enough troops in states that border Russia to repel an invasion. The alliance currently has 40,000 troops in eastern member states. ---ZeroHedge 04/11/2022




1. “新冠病毒在中国的蔓延是影响市场的最利空因素,”Lipow Oil Associates 总裁 Andy Lipow 表示。 “如果 [Covid] 在中国蔓延并导致大量封锁,对石油市场的影响可能是巨大的。”据 Lipow 称,中国是世界上最大的石油进口国,上海地区消耗了该国大约 4% 的原油。 ---CNBC

2. 乌克兰总统表示,该国“准备好”应对俄罗斯在该国东部发动的大规模进攻,因为他指责莫斯科撒谎以转移对战争的指责。

据美国和欧洲官员称,在军队未能占领基辅后,俄罗斯任命了一名新将军来指挥战争。

由于上周俄罗斯导弹袭击一个挤满了撤离人员的火车站,造成死亡人数上升,因此周日商定了九条疏散走廊。

乌克兰外交部长表示,在布查镇和火车站发生暴行之后,甚至考虑与俄罗斯进行谈判都将是“极其困难的”。 ---CNN 04/11/2022

3. 今早市场疲软的因素:标准普尔500指数上周五收于200日均线(4494)下方后的技术压力,俄罗斯-乌克兰局势看不到尽头,上海的COVID封锁令油价承压价格(94.38 美元,-3.83,-3.9%),以及对本周经济数据和收益报告的观望心态。---Briefing.com 04/11/2022

4. 周二,交易员将收到美国劳工统计局发布的最新消费者物价指数,预计该指数将显示出惊人的 8.4% 的同比涨幅,创下 1982 年以来的最大涨幅。美联储官员越来越多地谈到今年将高于平均水平的 50 个基点加息以帮助压低价格。上周,美联储 3 月份的会议纪要还显示,美联储正准备开始从其 9 万亿美元的资产负债表中缩减资产,以进一步取消金融市场的支持并摆脱大流行时期的宽松政策。 ---雅虎 04/11/2022

5、今日美联储官员讲话:所有时间都是东部时间。 9:30 拉斐尔·博斯蒂克,12:00 约翰·威廉姆斯,12:45 查尔斯·埃文斯。 ---华尔街早餐 04/11/2022

6. 欧洲央行将于周四开会并决定货币政策。在 3 月份的最后一次会议上,欧洲央行通过确认加快减少资产购买,采取了比预期更为强硬的立场。这将使 APP 购买量从 4 月的 400 亿欧元降至 5 月的 300 亿欧元,然后在 6 月降至 200 亿欧元,并有可能在第三季度完全结束购买。然而,自那时以来,通胀加速的速度甚至超过了普遍预期,欧元区 3 月份的 CPI 预估为 +7.5%,这是自单一货币形成以来的最高水平,高于二月s的 +5.9%。就这一次的展望而言,德意志银行经济学家在他们的预览中写道,他们预计欧洲央行的信息不会有太大变化。相反,他们认为当新的劳工预测在 6 月发布时,他们将宣布 APP 购买将在 7 月结束,在 9 月政策利率上调之前,因此潜在的政策方向变得越来越清晰。 ---ZeroHedge 04/11/2022

7. 北大西洋公约组织正处于“根本性转型”之中,并计划在俄罗斯边境进行大规模军事集结。 《每日电讯报》报道称,“北约秘书长透露,北约正在制定计划,在其边境部署一支永久性的全面军事力量,以对抗俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后未来的侵略。”秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格表示,北约将进行重大“重置”,并计划在与俄罗斯接壤的国家部署足够的部队以击退入侵。该联盟目前在东部成员国拥有40,000名士兵。 ---ZeroHedge 04/11/2022

Sunday, April 10, 2022

Nasdaq Composite To Test March Low纳斯达克综合指数将测试三月低位

Major U.S. stock indexes were mixed on last Friday‘s trading . The Dow rose, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 all fell. Big tech stocks such as TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL and QCOM weighed heavily on the Nasdaq. 

High inflation,  sharp rise in interest rates likely, the continuing Russia-Ukraine war and the lock down of Shanghai in China due to the spread of the Covid virus are all negatively impacting the global economy. U.S. short-term Treasury bond rates higher than long-term rates point to a greater chance of the economy entering a recession. There are various signs indicating that the US economy is in an advanced stage. Overvalued stocks don't match earnings, especially among tech growth stocks. U.S. stocks continuing trending down is very likely.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were turned back at their 100 and 200-day moving average resistances.  The Nasdaq Composite has dropped below its 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, its trend is bearish. The Nasdaq is the weakest index and has a good chance of testing its March low of 12555. The Nasdaq Composite fell 22% from its all-time high in March and entered a bear market. Historical data shows that the average bear market decline is 36% from the peak, and the average duration is 9 months. For Nasdaq to fall 36% from all time high, the price level would be 10376. Weakness in Nasdaq Composite will likely pull the other indexes down with it. 








Weekend News:

1. Ukraine’s economic output will likely contract by a staggering 45.1% this year as Russia’s invasion has shuttered businesses, slashed exports and destroyed productive capacity, the World Bank said on Sunday in a new assessment of the war’s economic impacts. The World Bank also forecast Russia's 2022 GDP output to fall 11.2% due to punishing financial sanctions imposed by the United States and its Western allies on Russia's banks, state-owned enterprises and other institutions.The World Bank's Eastern Europe region, comprising Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, is forecast to show a GDP contraction of 30.7% this year, due to shocks from the war and disruption of trade.

2. According to recent online postings, the municipal government issued a notice saying the lockdown will continue until at least May 1. As for what will happen after May 1, the notice said, it will be decided on May 1 whether to open up or continue the lockdown. Many neighborhoods in Shanghai are in a chaotic state. Some people can't get treatment. There is a serious lack of food. Some elderlies died in senior facilities without family members around. Babies are separated from their parents because their COVID-19 test results are different. ---Zero Hedge 04/10/2022

3. CPI is to be reported Wednesday. Consensus economists anticipate headline CPI will again accelerate to show an 8.4% year-over-year increase, surging higher from February's 7.9% rise, according to Bloomberg consensus data. The figure would mark another decades-high rate of inflation, with the index, even excluding volatile food and energy prices, set to climb as much as 6.6%, up from February's 6.4% increase. ---Yahoo 04/10/2022

4. Conversations detailed in the March 15-16 Fed minutes indicated the bank will soon begin to unwind its $9 trillion balance sheet and signaled members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “would have preferred a 50 basis point increase” in benchmark interest rates last month when the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2018. The minutes also echo recent public remarks from Fed leaders, including commentary on Thursday from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who said he wanted the central bank to get to between 3% and 3.25% on the Fed funds rate in the second half of this year, implying more aggressive, front-loaded interest rate hikes in the near-term. Fed Governor Lael Brainard also said last week that the FOMC was "prepared to take stronger action, " should inflation readings remain elevated and warrant such moves. ---Yahoo 04/10/2022

5. China’s PPI, a measure of industrial profitability, soared 8.3% in March from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed today. The CPI, a key gauge of inflation, rose 1.5%.  Both PPI and CPI are higher than expected. The Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.75% and 2.43% respectively in early trade.

6. Oil was lower in early Asian trading due to the possibility China's COVID-19 lockdowns will crimp demand. June WTI crude oil futures are 1.3% lower at $97 per barrel, while June Brent crude oil futures were 1.2% lower at $101.53, per barrel. For several weeks, the benchmarks have been at their most volatile since June 2020. The market has been watching developments in China, where authorities have kept Shanghai, a city of 26 million people, locked down under its "zero tolerance" for COVID-19. China is the world's biggest oil importer. --- Fox Business 04/10.2022





上周五美股各大指数涨跌不一。道指上升,标普500,纳斯达克综合指数及罗素2000均下跌。TSLA,NVDA,AMZN,GOOG,MSFT, AAPL及QCOM等科技大股当天买压沉重拖累纳指。

物价高涨,利率将急剧上升,俄乌战争未了及中国上海因Covid病毒传播而封城均负面影响全球经济。美国短期国债利率高于长期利率指向经济进入不景气的机会大。种种迹象显示美国经济正处于晚期阶段。股票估值过高与盈利不匹配,尤其是科技成长股。美股继续走跌探底的机会大。

道琼斯工业平均指数及标普500指数均被阻于100及200日均线。纳斯达克综合指数已失守20,50,100及200日均线,趋势看跌。纳指是最弱的一个指数而将下探三月低位12555的机会大。纳斯达克综合指数今年三月份时从历史高位曾经下跌了22%而进入熊市。历史数据显示,熊市平均跌幅为从高位下跌36%,平均时长为9个月。如果纳指下跌36%,价位水平将是10376。纳斯达克综合指数的弱势也将会拉低其它指数。








周末新闻:

1. 世界银行周日在对战争经济影响的新评估中表示,由于俄罗斯的入侵导致企业关闭、出口锐减和生产能力遭到破坏,乌克兰今年的经济产出可能会收缩 45.1%。世界银行还预测,由于美国及其西方盟国对俄罗斯银行、国有企业和其他机构实施金融制裁,俄罗斯 2022 年 GDP 产出将下降 11.2%。 世界银行预计东欧地区,包括乌克兰、白俄罗斯及摩尔多瓦等由于战争和贸易中断的冲击,今年的国内生产总值将收缩 30.7%。

2、根据近日网上发布的消息,上海市政府发布通知称,封城将至少持续到5月1日。至于5月1日之后的情况,通知说,5月1日再决定是否开放或或继续封锁。上海的许多街区都处于混乱状态。有些人无法得到治疗。食物严重不足。一些老人在没有家人陪伴的老年设施中死亡。婴儿与父母分开,因为他们的 COVID-19 测试结果不同。 --- ZeroHedge 04/10/2022

3. CPI 将于周三公布。根据彭博共识数据,经济学家共识预计整体 CPI 将再次加速,同比增长 8.4%,高于 2 月份的 7.9%。这一数字将标志着另一个十年来的高通胀率,即使不包括波动的食品和能源价格,该指数也将攀升至 6.6%,高于 2 月份的 6.4%。 ---雅虎 04/10/2022

4. 美联储 3 月 15 日至 16 日会议纪要中详述的对话表明,该银行将很快开始缩减其 9 万亿美元的资产负债表,并暗示联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 成员上个月“希望将基准利率提高 50 个基点”,上个月是美联储自 2018 年以来首次加息。会议纪要也呼应了美联储领导人最近的公开言论,包括圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁詹姆斯布拉德上周四发表的评论,他表示希望央行今年下半年将联邦基金利率提高到 3 % 到3.25%之间,这意味着近期加息将更加激进而提前。美联储理事莱尔布雷纳德上周也表示,如果通胀数据保持在高位,联邦公开市场委员会“准备采取更强有力的行动”。 ---雅虎 04/10/2022

5. 中国国家统计局今天公布的数据显示,衡量工业盈利能力的中国 3 月份 PPI 同比飙升 8.3%。 衡量通胀的关键指标 CPI 上涨 1.5%。PPI及CPI 均高于预期。上证指数及香港恒生指数早盘分别下跌1.75%及2.43%。

6. 由于中国的 COVID-19 封锁可能会抑制需求,油价在亚洲早盘交易中走低。 6 月 WTI 原油期货下跌 1.3% 至每桶 97 美元,而 6 月布伦特原油期货下跌 1.2% 至每桶 101.53 美元。 几周以来,这些基准一直处于自 2020 年 6 月以来最不稳定的状态。市场一直在关注中国的事态发展,中国当局已将拥有 2600 万人口的上海封锁在对 COVID-19 的“零容忍”之下 . 中国是世界上最大的石油进口国。 --- Fox Business 04/10/2022

7.俄罗斯总统泽连斯基表示,乌克兰“准备好”应对俄罗斯在该国东部发动的大规模进攻,因为他指责莫斯科撒谎以转移对战争的指责。 “他们摧毁了数百万人的生命,”他说。 由于上周俄罗斯导弹袭击一个挤满了撤离人员的火车站,造成死亡人数上升,因此周日商定了九条疏散走廊。 乌克兰外交部长表示,在布查镇和火车站发生暴行之后,甚至考虑与俄罗斯进行谈判都将是“极其困难的”。 据美国和欧洲官员称,在军队未能占领基辅后,俄罗斯任命了一名新将军来指挥战争。--- CNN 04/10/2022

Wednesday, April 6, 2022

US Stocks To Continue Testing Bottoms 美股将继续走跌探底

Rising bond yields, new round of sanctions against Russia, Shanghai locks down indefinitely and high valuation of tech stocks all contribute to today's market weakness. More weakness later in the day is likely after the Fed meeting minutes is released. The recent strong bounce of the stock market is definitely over and the market will likely continue to test bottoms.










Recent news:

1. US Treasury yields hit multi year highs: 5 year 2.748%, 10 year 2.629, 30 year 2.67%

2.  A new round of sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced by the US and the EU.

3. Oil price rises as new Russia sanctions out weigh demand worries.

4. Bank of America clients were selling US equities, both stocks and ETFs last week. Hedge funds were leading the way, followed by institutional clients. On the other hand, retail clients were buying stocks.

5. Last Federal Reserve meeting minutes is to be released at 11AM Pacific Time today. Analysts expect minutes will likely show even more hawkish attitude by the Fed members.

6. Shanghai residents feel strain as lock down extend indefinitely. People are confined to their homes and reliant on authorities for supplies.



债券收益率上升、新一轮对俄制裁、上海无限期封城、科技股估值偏高,均是导致今日市场疲软的一些原因。今天晚些时美联储会议纪要公布后,美股继续疲软的机会大。近期股市的强劲反弹肯定已经结束,市场会继续下跌探底。










近期新闻:

1.美国国债收益率创多年新高:5年2.748%、10年2.629、30年2.67%

2.预计今天美欧将宣布对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁。

3. 对俄罗斯的新制裁盖过需求消退的担忧,油价继续走高。

4. 美国银行的客户上周出售美国股票,包括股票和 ETF。对冲基金领先抛售,机构客户紧随其后。另一方面,散户却在购买股票。

5. 美联储最上次会议纪要将于太平洋时间今天上午 11 点发布。分析师预计,美联储成员的会议记录可能会表现出更加强硬的鹰派态度。

6.上海封城无限期延长,居民感到压力。人们被限制在家中,并依赖当局提供物资。