Morning news:
1. March Nonfarm Payroll came in at 431000 Vs 490000 estimate. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% from 3.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month to month, same as estimate.
2. 2 year and 10 year Treasury yield curve inverted raising recession fear.
3. Russia/Ukraine talks resume as "huge"battles erupted near Ukraine's capital. France says no change in Russia's aim and doesn't see any significant retreat or a cease fire.
4. JP Morgan removes AAPL and QCOM from its analyst Focus List, sees early sign of reversal of value over growth momentum.
5. Goldman Sachs expects muted Q1 EPS for Q1, says Giga Shanghai plant halt presents an incremental downside risk to 315K delivery estimate.
US stock market traded mix after a less than expected non-farm payroll report. However, the odd of a 0.5% rate hike in May is 74% and odd for a similar hike in June is 59% according to CME Fed Watch; The 2 year and 10 year yield curve inversion raises recession fear;Russia/Ukraine war is not seeing an end;Weakness on AAPL, NVDA, QCOM and INTC are still negative factors pressuring the stock market this morning.
Technically, the S&P 500 has started a downside reversal 2 day's ago after surging over 11% since March low. The market retreat is not likely to end until a meaningful support is reached. The next meaningful support is S&P 500's 200 DMA level at 4485. More market downside is likely.
早间新闻：
1. 3 月非农就业人数为增加 431000，而估计为 490000。失业率从 3.8% 下降到 3.6%。平均时薪环比增长 0.4%，与预期相同。
2. 2年和10年国债收益率曲线倒挂引发衰退担忧。
3.随着乌克兰首都附近爆发“大规模”战斗，俄罗斯/乌克兰会谈恢复。法国表示俄罗斯的目标没有改变，也没有看到任何重大的撤退或停火。
4. 摩根大通将 AAPL 和 QCOM 从其分析师关注名单中删除，看到从增长到价值投资逆转势头的早期迹象。
5. 高盛预计TSLA 第一季度每股收益将无大惊喜，称 上海巨型工厂的停产对 315K 的交付估计值带来了下行风险。
非农就业报告不及预期后，美国股市交投升跌不一。然而，根据 CME Fed Watch 的数据显示，5 月加息 0.5% 的概率为 74%，6 月类似加息的概率为 59%； 2年期和10年期收益率曲线倒挂引发经济衰退担忧；俄乌战争尚未结束；AAPL, NVDA, QCOM and INTC等科技股的疲软都将是继续打压股市的利空因素。
从技术上讲，标准普尔 500 指数在自 3 月低点飙升超过 11% 后，于 2 天前开始下行反转。在获得有意义的支撑之前，市场回落不太可能结束。下一个有意义的支撑位是标准普尔 500 指数的 200 日均线 4485 点。市场进一步下跌的可能性大。
No comments:
Post a Comment