Bitcoin May Need A Deeper Correction比特币可能需要更大的修正

After making all time high at $64895 on April 14 on the hype of crypto currency exchange Coinbase (COIN) IPO, Bitcoin has been on a downtrend since. The lowest it dropped down to is $51541 on April 17 before it bounced. However it is still below its crucial 50 DMA resistance at around $56000. It has not been solidly below its 50 DMA since September 2020. If it cannot recover above $ 56000 in the near term,  it could go down to test recent low at $51541 again and open the door to $42000 next support. Meanwhile the influential COIN has dropped 24% from its high of $429.54 since IPO and its valuation is still too high. Two technicals for Bitcoin I am worrying about are:

1. Since the $30000 level in January, BTC has pushed up 3 times to $64850 then started to come down. This is a bearish 3 Drives To Top pattern. 

2. On the way of making higher highs, the Relative Strength Index is making lower lows. Its strength is weakening.

Although Bitcoin related stocks have been having serious corrections, investors need to be patient before getting back to them since many of them are still up quite a bit in the last half year: MARA +1393%, RIOT +1152%, CAN +625%, MOGO +496%, MSTR+296%,BTBT +215%, PYPL +32%, SQ +31%, FTCV -12% and EBON -53%.  During the same period Bitcoin has risen around 315%.  Buying the laggers may be less risky when time is ripe to buy again. 

在4月14日因加密货币交易所Coinbase（COIN）IPO的炒作而创下历史新高64895美元之后，比特币自此一直处于下跌趋势中。它在反弹之前于4月17日曾跌至低价51541美元。然而，它仍然低于关键的50 DMA阻力位56000美元左右。自2020年9月以来，它一直没有跌破50日均线。如果它不能在短期内回升至56000美元以上，它可能会下跌并再次测试近期低点51541美元，并为下一个支撑位42000美元打开大门。与此同时，颇具影响力的COIN较IPO时的高点429.54美元已下跌了24％，但估值仍然非常高。我担心的比特币的两个技术情况是：

1.自一月份的30000美元水平以来，BTC被推涨3次至64850美元，然后开始下跌。这是看跌的3 波上升见顶模式。

2.在创造更高的高点的过程中，相对强度指数正在创造更低的低点。它的上升力度正在减弱。

尽管与比特币相关的股票也在进行大幅修正，但投资者仍需耐心等待入市时刻，因为半年来许多比特币相关股票仍上涨很多：MARA + 1393％，RIOT + 1152％，CAN + 625％ ，MOGO + 496％，MSTR + 296％，BTBT + 215％，PYPL + 32％，SQ + 31％，FTCV -12％和EBON -53％。在同一半年期间，比特币上涨了约315％。当再次有买入时机时，购买上面上升较堕后的股票的风险或会较小。

2 Biotechs To Consider Buy: ARDX, FOLD可考虑买入的2种只生物科技股：ARDX，FOLD

Ardelyx, Inc., (ARDX 8.96) a biopharmaceutical company, develops and sells medicines for the treatment of kidney and cardiorenal diseases in the United States and internationally. The company's lead product candidate is tenapanor, which has completed Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation, as well as in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in end-stage renal disease patients on dialysis. It also develops RDX013, a small molecule potassium secretagogue program that is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of patients with hyperkalemia; and RDX020, a small molecule program for the treatment of metabolic acidosis. The company was formerly known as Nteryx, Inc. and changed its name to Ardelyx, Inc. in June 2008. Ardelyx, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

1. $5 million milestone payment trigger from Japanese partner for initiation of Phase 3 test of ARDX's lead drug Tenapanor. 

2. April 29, 2021 is date for FDA to announce whether to approve Tenapanor in the US.

3. 21 Hedge Funds own ARDX stocks.

4. EPS growth for this and next years are 28% and 48%.

5. Wedbush analyst rated buy with price target at $14.

6. Price breaking out of 12 months range, strong upside momentum.

Amicus Therapeutics, Inc., (FOLD 10.13) a biotechnology company, focuses on discovering, developing, and delivering medicines for people living with rare metabolic diseases. Its commercial product and product candidates include Galafold, an oral precision medicine for the treatment of adults with a confirmed diagnosis of Fabry disease and an amenable galactosidase alpha gene variant based on in vitro assay data; gene therapies for Fabry and Pompe diseases, as well as for various types of Batten diseases; enzyme replacement therapies for Pompe diseases; and CDKL5 deficiency disorder product candidates. The company also has additional gene therapies in active preclinical development, including gene therapies for mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB, as well as a next generation program in mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIA. The company has collaboration and license agreements with Nationwide Children's Hospital; University of Pennsylvania; and GlaxoSmithKline. Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Positives for FOLD:

1. Cantor Fitzgerald set price target to $17.

2. 37 Hedge Funds own FOLD.

3. EPS growth for this and next years are 28% and 53%.

4. a high 14% short interest.

5. Just come off a 1 year low after a 65% drop from December high last year. 

生物制药公司Ardelyx，Inc.（ARDX 8.96）在美国和国际上开发和销售用于治疗肾脏和心肾疾病的药物。该公司的主要候选产品为tenapanor，该药物已经完成了对便秘性肠易激综合征患者的3期临床试验，以及对终末期肾脏病透析患者进行高磷酸盐血症治疗的3期临床试验。它还开发了RDX013，这是一种小分子钾促分泌剂计划，目前处于2期临床试验中，用于治疗高钾血症患者； RDX020，一种用于治疗代谢性酸中毒的小分子程序。该公司的前身为Nteryx，Inc.，并于2008年6月更名为Ardelyx，Inc.。Ardelyx，Inc.成立于2007年，总部位于加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特。

ARDX的好处：

1.来自日本合作伙伴的500万美元里程碑付款被触发，用于启动ARDX的主要药物Tenapanor的第三阶段测试。

2. FDA将于2021年4月29日宣布是否在美国批准Tenapanor。

3. 21家对冲基金拥有ARDX股票。

4.今明两年的每股收益增长分别为28％和48％。

5. Wedbush分析师给予“买入”评级，目标价为14美元。

6.价格突破了12个月的区间，上涨势头强劲。

生物技术公司Amicus Therapeutics，Inc.（FOLD 10.13）是一家致力于为患有罕见代谢疾病的人们发现，开发和提供药物的公司。它的商业产品和候选产品包括Galafold，这是一种口服精密药物，用于治疗已确诊Fabry病的成年人，并具有基于体外测定数据的合适的半乳糖苷酶α基因变体。法布里和庞贝氏病以及各种类型的巴滕疾病的基因疗法；庞贝病的酶替代疗法；和CDKL5缺乏症产品候选产品。该公司还在积极的临床前开发中提供了其他基因疗法，包括用于IIIB型粘多糖贮积病的基因疗法，以及用于IIIA型粘多糖贮积病的下一代计划。该公司与全国儿童医院有合作和许可协议；宾夕法尼亚大学；和葛兰素史克。 Amicus Therapeutics，Inc.成立于2002年，总部位于宾夕法尼亚州的费城。

FOLD 的好处：

1. 坎特·菲茨杰拉德（Cantor Fitzgerald）将目标股价定为17美元。

2. 37家对冲基金拥有FOLD股票。

3.今明两年的每股收益增长分别为28％和53％。

4.高14％的空头。

5.从去年12月的高点下跌了65％之后，刚从1年低点上来。

FTCV Looks Like A Good Bet FTCV看起来不错

FinTech Acquisition Corp. (FTCV $11.57) is a SPAC company . The company intends to acquire businesses or assets through a merger, capital stock exchange, stock purchase, reorganization, or other similar business transaction. The company has an merger agreement with eToro to bring etoro public. 

eToro is an Israeli social trading and multi-asset brokerage company that focuses on providing crypto currency and stock trading and copy trading services( users can copy the tradings of other users). It has registered offices in Cyprus, Israel, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Australia. eToro has20 million users world wide. Its 2020 revenue is $600 million which is a 147% annual revenue growth and it is projecting a revenue of $1B in 2021.

Why is FTCV interesting is it is the only way to invest in eToro since eToro is going to go public through merging with FTCV. Investing in FTCV is timely now because a similar company Coinbase (COIN) will be going public on April 14. Coinbase is the largest crypto currency trading company in United States. It has 43 million users with $1.2 billion revenue in 2020.The projected capitalization for Coinbase is $90 billions and the capitalization of FTCV is only $356 millions (eToro is valued at $10B). Even though Coinbase annual revenues are double that of eToro but the value of Coinbase is 25 times that of FTCV. This makes FTCV very under value. So when Coinbase goes public next week, FTCV will likely go up in sympathy and may be in a big way.

The advantages of eToro over Coinbase platforms are:

1. eToro trades both crypto currencies and stocks while Coinbase is limited to cryptos.

2. eToro is a social media trading platform and users can talk to each other for ideas while Coinbase is not.

3. eToro offers "Copy" services which allows users to copy other users tradings while Coinbase does not provide this service. 

FTCV surged up from $10.71 to $15.70 when the merger with eToro was announced on March 17. It has now totally retraced this gain and is hovering near $11.50 support. With it sitting at support and Coinbase is going public next Wednesday, it looks like a good bet. It may find its way back up to $15.70.

FinTech Acquisition Corp.（FTCV $11.57）是一家SPAC公司。该公司打算通过合并，资本证券交易，股票购买，重组或其他类似业务交易来收购业务或资产。该公司与eToro达成了合并协议，以将eToro上市。

eToro是一家以色列社交交易和多资产证券公司，致力于提供加密货币和股票交易以及复制交易服务（用户可以复制其他用户的交易）。它在塞浦路斯，以色列，英国，美国和澳大利亚设有注册办事处。 eToro在全球拥有2000万用户。其2020年收入为6亿美元，年收入增长率为147％，并预计2021年的收入为10亿美元。

为什么对FTCV有兴趣呢，因为这是投资eToro的唯一方式，eToro将通过与FTCV合并而公开上市。现在投资FTCV是及时的，因为类似的公司Coinbase（COIN）将于4月14日上市。Coinbase是美国最大的加密货币较易所。2020年它拥有4300万用户，收入为12亿美元。Coinbase的预计资本总额为900亿美元，而FTCV的资本总额仅为3.56亿美元 (eToro 估值是100亿美元）。尽管两家公司的年收入相差只有一倍，但Coinbase的价值是却是FTCV的25倍。这使得FTCV的价值相对对非常低。因此，当下周Coinbase上市时，FTCV可能会跟随上升，并且可能会大升。

另外，eToro平台好于Coinbase平台的地方是：

1. eToro允许交易加密货币和股票，而Coinbase仅限于加密货币。

2. eToro是一个社交媒体交易平台，用户可以互相交流以获取想法，而Coinbase则不能。

3. eToro提供“复制”服务，该服务允许用户复制其他用户的交易，而Coinbase不提供此服务。

在 3月17日宣布与eToro合并后，FTCV从10.71美元飙升至15.70美元。现在，它已完全回撤了这一涨幅，并徘徊在11.50美元支撑附近。它的支撑附近及Coinbase将于下周三上市，FTCV看起来是个不错的选择。它可能会回升至15.70美元。