Stars Are Line Up For A Big Correction In The Stock Market 美股大调整的迹象渐现

Regardless of ultra high stock valuations，FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) , TINA (There Is No Alternative) and  buy on dips sentiments have pushed the S&P 500 up 13 months out of the last 16 since the March 2020 bottom and it is now near all time high.  During this period, S&P 500 has surged 100.5%. The danger is that most experts and fund managers interviewed in CNBC and Bloomberg are still bullish and urging people to buy. Warren Buffet said "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Now that the 2nd quarter earning season is quickly drawing to a close, it is going to be hard to find any other trigger for further rally when facing the following listed hurdles. Even though market top is hard to time, but it is time to exercise extreme caution and prepare for a big market correction. When it come, it is going to be fast and furious. 

1.  Delta Variant case is rising fast in the United States. For July 30, 7 day average in new cases is 67080, it is the highest since April 18. Delta Variant is 2 to 3 times faster in transmission than Covid-19, this means that in six to eight weeks there is likely to be more than 200,000 new cases, like what was seen in December 2020. Lock downs are likely.  Following graphs are sourced from Johns Hopkin Coronavirus Resource Center.

2. The S&P 500 is now sitting at 4395. According to estimates from 15 analysts , the highest S&P 500 year end 2021 target is 4600 from Credit Suisse, the lowest estimate is 3800 from Bank of America  and the average estimate is 4290. The S&P 500 is now 2.4% over average estimate. 

3. According to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey, investors expect the Fed to announce a tapering of asset purchases either at Jackson Hole (Aug 26-28, with Powell likely to speak on the 26th) or at the Sep FOMC meeting (22-Sep) . ---ZeroHedge.com

The Fear Gauge VIX Futures is trading at historic premium to VIX spot price reflecting concern on this event. 

4. We are facing the seasonal weakest 2 months of the year for stocks, August and September and the crash month of October (1929 and 1987 crashes happened in October). 

5.U.S. GDP rose 6.5% in the 2nd quarter, well below expectations of 8.4%. US GDP growth is expected to be slowing after 2nd quarter 2021 according to Goldman Sachs research. Slower economic growth is ahead.

                                                            Source ZeroHedge.com                                                        

6. The Buffet Indicator (Market Capitalization/GDP) is the highest in history and is 89% higher than fair value 120%. Stock market valuation is too high. 

                                                          (Source Lance Roberts)

                                                            Source Currentmarketvaluation.com

7. S&P 500 PE /10 (Shiller PE) is the 2nd highest in history behind the highest in year 2000. When PE returns to normal, stock market need to come down big. PE/10 is now at 36.7 versus historic average 17.1.

                                                            Source Advisorperspective.com

8.  Margin debt is the highest in history. High levels of margin debt can exacerbate the speed of market pullbacks.

                                                            Source Advisorperspective.com

9. Chinese tech stock crashed over 40%,  but tech stocks in US are near all time high. Will the US techs catch up to the downside?

                                                         Source ZeroHedge.com

自 2020 年 3 月触底以来，无论股票估值如何的高，在FOMO（害怕错过）、TINA（没有替代品）和逢低买入的情绪推动之下，标准普尔 500 指数在过去 16 个月中上升了 13 个月而且接近历史最高点。在这段时间内，标准普尔 500 指数已经大涨了100.5%！危险在于，在 CNBC 和彭博社采访的大多数专家和基金经理仍然看好股市并敦促人们购买股票。 沃伦巴菲特说：“我们只是试图在别人贪婪时恐惧，只有在别人恐惧时才贪婪。” 现在第二季度的盈利季节很快就要结束了，当面临以下列出的障碍时，很难找到任何其他触发进一步上升的因素。尽管市场何时市场j见顶难以预则，但现在是需要极其谨慎的时候了，要为市场大跌做好准备。当它到来时，它将是快速而愤怒的。

1. Delta Variant 案例在美国迅速上升。 7 月 30 日，新病例的 7 天平均值为 67080，这是自 4 月 18 日以来的最高水平。Delta Variant 的传播速度是 Covid-19 的 2 到 3 倍，这意味着在六到八周内可能会有超过 200,000 个新病例，就像在 2020 年 12 月看到的那样。可能会有更多的社区封锁。 以下图表来自约翰霍普金大学冠状病毒资源中心。

2. 标准普尔 500 指数现在位于4395。根据 15 位分析师的估计，标普 500 指数 2021年底的最高目标是瑞银的 4600，最低估计是 美国银行 的 3800，平均估计是 4290。标准普尔 500 指数现在已经比平均值高出 2.4%。

2. 根据最新的美国银行基金经理调查，投资者预计美联储将在杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole 8 月 26 日至 28 日，鲍威尔可能在 26 日发表讲话）或 9 月 FOMC 会议（22 日至 九月）宣布停止买债 。 ---ZeroHedge.com

恐慌指标（Fear Gauge ）VIX 期货的交易价格高于 VIX 现货价格，反映了对这一事件的担忧。

3. 我们正面临着股票一年中季节性最弱的两个月，8 月和 9 月以及 10 月的崩盘月（1929 年和 1987 年崩盘都在10月份）。

3.美国第二季GDP增长6.5%，远低于预期的8.3%。根据高盛的研究，预计美国 GDP 增长将在 2021 年第二季度之后放缓。经济成长未来将下跌。

                                                            源自ZeroHedge.com

4.巴菲特指标（市值/GDP）创历史新高, 比公允价值120%高出89%。股市估值实在太高了。

                                                                  源自Lance Roberts

                                                                 源自Currentmarketvaluation.com

5. 标普 500 市盈率 /10（Shiller PE) 是历史上仅次于 2000 年为第二高。PE 回归正常时，股市需要大幅下跌。PE/10 现在为 36.7，而历史平均水平为 17.1。

源自Advisorsperspective.com

                                                        

6. 保证金债务是历史最高的。高保证金债务会加速市场回调的速度. 

                                                

                                                  源自 Advisorperspective.com

9.中国科技股暴跌超40%，但美国科技股指那斯达克则接近历史高位。美国科技股追跌下来吗？

                                                         源自ZeroHedge.com)                                                       

Bitcoin Starts To Rally, What To Buy? 比特币开始上升，要买什么？

After holding the $30000 level for more than 2 months, Bitcoin rallied strongly off $30000 today.  Bitcoin is up over $2300 to over 32000 today. In Today's "B Word" event, which aims to demystify bitcoin, Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Cathy Wood are all expressing support to Bitcoin. May be this will start the trip for Bitcoin to break out of the $30000 to $40000 trading range. Meanwhile, Ethereum is up over 9% to near $2000. It may be on the way to $2500. GBTC (26.03) and ETHE(17.95) are the two Trusts that can be purchase with a stock account to participate directly on the up turn of Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively.

Reasons for buying Marathon Digital Holdings ( MARA) are:

1. MARA owns 5518 Bitcoins which valued at $176,576,000 at $32000/Bitcoin. MARA produced 265.6 Bitcoins in June. Strong Bitcoin price performance should be good for MARA.

2. MARA is a money making Bitcoin mining company. It is working to build the biggest mining operation in the US. Its EPS is expected to growth 50% per year for the next 5 years.

3. MARA has only 91.82 million shares float and 18% short interest. It can move fast. It has been among the biggest movers most of the time.

4. Average target price for MARA is $43.5 (from the two latest analysts rating).

5. MARA formed a bullish island reversal pattern today. It has also double bottomed around $20. Near term resistances fro MARA are $27 the $30.

在坚守 30000 美元水平超过 2 个月后，比特币今天从 30000 美元强劲反弹。 比特币今天上涨了 2300多美元，超于 32000 美元。 在今天旨在揭开比特币神秘面纱的“B Word”活动中，Elon Musk、Jack Dorsey 和 Cathy Wood 都表达了对比特币的支持。 可能这将开启比特币突破 30000 美元至 40000 美元交易区间的旅程。 与此同时，以太坊上涨超过 9%，接近 2000 美元。它可能会走向2500美元。 GBTC（26.03）和ETHE（17.95）是两个可以用股票账户购买的信托，分别直接参与比特币和以太坊的上涨。

购买马拉松数字控股(MARA)的原因是：

1. MARA 拥有 5518 个比特币，价值 176,576,000 美元，按 32000 美元/比特币计算。MARA在六月份生产了265.6个比特币。 强劲的比特币价格表现应该对 MARA 有利。

2. MARA 是一家赚钱的比特币挖矿公司。 它正在努力建立美国最大的采矿业务。 其每股收益预计在未来 5 年每年增长 50%。

3. MARA 仅有 9182 万股流通股和 18% 的空头百分比。 它可以快速移动。 大多数时候，它一直是比特币有关股票中波动最大之一。

4. MARA 的平均目标价为 43.5 美元（来自两位分析师最新的评级）。

5、MARA今日形成看涨的岛形反转形态。 它还在20美元左右两次触底。 MARA 的近期阻力位是 27 美元和 30 美元。

Some Market Charts To Ponder On 一些值得思考的市场图表

 I am reposting some charts from an excellent article from ZeroHedge.com ""Fear" Nears 2020 Highs As Stocks, Bond Yields, & Crude Crash" 

The following chart is from Northmantrader.com. It shows the S&P 500 has solidly dropped below its uptrend line from November 2020.  Uptrend has broken, is this the beginning of a bigger correction?

The following charts are sourced from Bloomberg:

The first chart shows 10 year treasury yield has been going down since March 2021, and the S&P 500 has been rising during most that period until recently it started to follow the trend of the 10 year bond yield. Will this be a repeat of the next chart which shows the trends of both the 10 year treasury yield and the S&P 500 which diverged initially and then converged and both dropped sharply last year.

The following chart is also sourced from Bloomberg which shows drastic rise of Covid spread in UK. 

This is supposedly the main trigger for global stock sell off.

The following chart is what I got from CNBC. This chart shows today's Dow drop is the largest for the year of 2021.

The following diagrams are what I got from Finviz.com. The first diagram shows the severity of damages from all the 11 S&P 500 sectors today. The second diagram is the heat map showing the performances of all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 today.

The 1.5X VIX tracking ETF UVXY finally wakes up with 21.42% gain on 4.77 times average volume and broke above 50 day moving average. This shows a lot of fears among investors.

By  the way the  Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down -725,81 (-2.09%), -68.67 (-1.59%) and -152.25 (-1.06%) respectively today. Not too tragic. There may be even more tragic days in the future.

下面我重新发布 ZeroHedge.com 的一篇优秀文章“恐慌”接近 2020 年高点，股票、债券收益率和原油大跌” 中的一些图表。

下图来自 Northmantrader.com。 显示标准普尔 500 指数自 2020 年 11 月以来的上升趋势线已肯定的被击穿。上升趋势已被打破，这是更大修正的开始吗？

以下图表来自彭博社：

第一张图表显示，10 年期国债收益率自 2021 年 3 月以来一直在下降，而标准普尔 500 指数在此期间的大部分时间里一直在上涨，直到最近才开始跟随 10 年期国债收益率的下跌趋势。 这是否会重演下一张图表，显示的去年 10 年期国债收益率和标准普尔 500 指数的趋势想通呢，它们最初的趋势也是出现分歧的，然后势回归相同，并都大幅下跌。

下面的图表也来自彭博社，它显示了英国 Covid 传播的急剧上升。这被认为是今天全球股票抛售的主要触发因素。

下面的图表是我从 CNBC 得到的。 这张图表显示，今天的道指跌幅是 2021 年最大的。

下面的图是我从 Finviz.com 得到的。 第一张图显示了今天标准普尔 500 指数所有 11 个板块的损失严重程度。 第二张图是显示标准普尔 500 指数中所有 500 只股票今天表现的热图。 

1.5 倍 VIX 追踪 ETF UVXY 今天最终以 4.77 倍的平均成交量上涨 21.42% 并突破 50 天移动平均线。 这表明投资者对市场的非常恐慌。

顺便提一提，道琼斯指数、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数今天分别下跌了 -725,81 (-2.09%)、-68.67 (-1.59%) 和 -152.25 (-1.06%)。还不算惨烈。以后或会有更惨烈的日子。