Stars Are Line Up For A Big Correction In The Stock Market 美股大调整的迹象渐现

Regardless of ultra high stock valuations，FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) , TINA (There Is No Alternative) and  buy on dips sentiments have pushed the S&P 500 up 13 months out of the last 16 since the March 2020 bottom and it is now near all time high.  During this period, S&P 500 has surged 100.5%. The danger is that most experts and fund managers interviewed in CNBC and Bloomberg are still bullish and urging people to buy. Warren Buffet said "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Now that the 2nd quarter earning season is quickly drawing to a close, it is going to be hard to find any other trigger for further rally when facing the following listed hurdles. Even though market top is hard to time, but it is time to exercise extreme caution and prepare for a big market correction. When it come, it is going to be fast and furious. 

1.  Delta Variant case is rising fast in the United States. For July 30, 7 day average in new cases is 67080, it is the highest since April 18. Delta Variant is 2 to 3 times faster in transmission than Covid-19, this means that in six to eight weeks there is likely to be more than 200,000 new cases, like what was seen in December 2020. Lock downs are likely.  Following graphs are sourced from Johns Hopkin Coronavirus Resource Center.

2. The S&P 500 is now sitting at 4395. According to estimates from 15 analysts , the highest S&P 500 year end 2021 target is 4600 from Credit Suisse, the lowest estimate is 3800 from Bank of America  and the average estimate is 4290. The S&P 500 is now 2.4% over average estimate. 

3. According to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey, investors expect the Fed to announce a tapering of asset purchases either at Jackson Hole (Aug 26-28, with Powell likely to speak on the 26th) or at the Sep FOMC meeting (22-Sep) . ---ZeroHedge.com

The Fear Gauge VIX Futures is trading at historic premium to VIX spot price reflecting concern on this event. 

4. We are facing the seasonal weakest 2 months of the year for stocks, August and September and the crash month of October (1929 and 1987 crashes happened in October). 

5.U.S. GDP rose 6.5% in the 2nd quarter, well below expectations of 8.4%. US GDP growth is expected to be slowing after 2nd quarter 2021 according to Goldman Sachs research. Slower economic growth is ahead.

                                                            Source ZeroHedge.com                                                        

6. The Buffet Indicator (Market Capitalization/GDP) is the highest in history and is 89% higher than fair value 120%. Stock market valuation is too high. 

                                                          (Source Lance Roberts)

                                                            Source Currentmarketvaluation.com

7. S&P 500 PE /10 (Shiller PE) is the 2nd highest in history behind the highest in year 2000. When PE returns to normal, stock market need to come down big. PE/10 is now at 36.7 versus historic average 17.1.

                                                            Source Advisorperspective.com

8.  Margin debt is the highest in history. High levels of margin debt can exacerbate the speed of market pullbacks.

                                                            Source Advisorperspective.com

9. Chinese tech stock crashed over 40%,  but tech stocks in US are near all time high. Will the US techs catch up to the downside?

                                                         Source ZeroHedge.com

自 2020 年 3 月触底以来，无论股票估值如何的高，在FOMO（害怕错过）、TINA（没有替代品）和逢低买入的情绪推动之下，标准普尔 500 指数在过去 16 个月中上升了 13 个月而且接近历史最高点。在这段时间内，标准普尔 500 指数已经大涨了100.5%！危险在于，在 CNBC 和彭博社采访的大多数专家和基金经理仍然看好股市并敦促人们购买股票。 沃伦巴菲特说：“我们只是试图在别人贪婪时恐惧，只有在别人恐惧时才贪婪。” 现在第二季度的盈利季节很快就要结束了，当面临以下列出的障碍时，很难找到任何其他触发进一步上升的因素。尽管市场何时市场j见顶难以预则，但现在是需要极其谨慎的时候了，要为市场大跌做好准备。当它到来时，它将是快速而愤怒的。

1. Delta Variant 案例在美国迅速上升。 7 月 30 日，新病例的 7 天平均值为 67080，这是自 4 月 18 日以来的最高水平。Delta Variant 的传播速度是 Covid-19 的 2 到 3 倍，这意味着在六到八周内可能会有超过 200,000 个新病例，就像在 2020 年 12 月看到的那样。可能会有更多的社区封锁。 以下图表来自约翰霍普金大学冠状病毒资源中心。

2. 标准普尔 500 指数现在位于4395。根据 15 位分析师的估计，标普 500 指数 2021年底的最高目标是瑞银的 4600，最低估计是 美国银行 的 3800，平均估计是 4290。标准普尔 500 指数现在已经比平均值高出 2.4%。

2. 根据最新的美国银行基金经理调查，投资者预计美联储将在杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole 8 月 26 日至 28 日，鲍威尔可能在 26 日发表讲话）或 9 月 FOMC 会议（22 日至 九月）宣布停止买债 。 ---ZeroHedge.com

恐慌指标（Fear Gauge ）VIX 期货的交易价格高于 VIX 现货价格，反映了对这一事件的担忧。

3. 我们正面临着股票一年中季节性最弱的两个月，8 月和 9 月以及 10 月的崩盘月（1929 年和 1987 年崩盘都在10月份）。

3.美国第二季GDP增长6.5%，远低于预期的8.3%。根据高盛的研究，预计美国 GDP 增长将在 2021 年第二季度之后放缓。经济成长未来将下跌。

                                                            源自ZeroHedge.com

4.巴菲特指标（市值/GDP）创历史新高, 比公允价值120%高出89%。股市估值实在太高了。

                                                                  源自Lance Roberts

                                                                 源自Currentmarketvaluation.com

5. 标普 500 市盈率 /10（Shiller PE) 是历史上仅次于 2000 年为第二高。PE 回归正常时，股市需要大幅下跌。PE/10 现在为 36.7，而历史平均水平为 17.1。

源自Advisorsperspective.com

                                                        

6. 保证金债务是历史最高的。高保证金债务会加速市场回调的速度. 

                                                

                                                  源自 Advisorperspective.com

9.中国科技股暴跌超40%，但美国科技股指那斯达克则接近历史高位。美国科技股追跌下来吗？

                                                         源自ZeroHedge.com)