Past And Future Potential Bubbles过去和未来潜在的泡沫

What ever go up euphorically always crash down because emotional buying alway exaggerate distant  future valuation. We see this happen over and over again in history. Market cycles repeat themselves and investors emotion are always behave in the same two extreme ways are what cause the market's boom and bust. Nothing new  as far as trading the market is concern. The Dotcom Bubble, Housing Bubble ,Bitcoin Bubble, Cannabis Bubble all happened within the last 20 years. The potential future bubbles in the making now I believe are EV (electrical vehicle) Bubble and Stay At Home Stock Bubble. I am providing the following charts as warnings. 

The Dotcom Bubble：

The Dotcom Bubble was caused by excessive speculation in Internet-related companies in the late 1990s, a period of massive growth in the use and adoption of the Internet. Before the March 2000 crash, the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) was up 353% in the course of 17 months from the low of October 1998 to Mach 2000.  The NDX dropped by 83% by October 2002.

During the Dotcom Bubble many tech stocks dropped precipitously. They include AMZN and CSCO.

The Sub-prime Housing Bubble:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 53% during the 2008 Housing Bubble. From October 2002 to October 2008, the Dow was up 97% before the crash. The causes of the housing and financial crisis were predatory private mortgage lending and unregulated markets.

The Bitcoin Bubble:

From February 2015's $62 to 2017 high of 19666, Bitcoin was up 12800%. Over speculation caused the bubble burst, the digital asset came crashing down to lows of $3,150, a 84% drop eventually in December 2018. 

The Cannibis Bubble:

When Canada legalised marijuana in 2017, it seemed like anyone who was anyone wanted to break into the market. The cannibis stocks got bid up like crazy. CGC, a leading cannibis stock surged up 1109% from June 2017 to October 2019. However, sales are far from what investors were expected, and CGC crashed. It eventually plunged 85% from 2019 high to the low on March 2nd 2020.

The to be "EV Bubble"

Tesla stock TSLA surged 1320% from June 2019 to September 2020 high! The big rise has been based on hope of Tesla is not just a car company by a scientific company with big growth ahead and the cult like worship of the company CEO Elon Musk. On its latest highly anticipated  "Battery Day", it has not shown anything as promising as investors had hope. Last Friday, TSLA is still being bought by followers and they still haven't give up.  I think the overhyped stock price defying fundamental and numerous EV competitors not far behind, TSLA will not likely to avoid a crash. Today, even China's Huawei said they can do any thing that Tesla can do. In addition, last week when a little known company SPI energy announced that it's ready to enter the EV business and the stock surged up over 3200% in a single day. And the energy related name such as SUNW rallied in sympathy from 0.77 to 8.50 (+1004%) in matter of two days.  This situation is the same as during the dotcom, bitcoin and cannibis bubbles when companies attached with .com, bitcoin  and cannibis respectively would surge before the bubbles bursted.  These are crazy stuff. If these are not signs of a bubble, I don't know what is. When a stock moves up over 1000% in a little over 1 year, it's likely a bubble. 

The to be " Stay In Home Stock Bubble":

Zoom (ZM) has became a household name ever since the Coronavirus Pandemic started as teleconferencing becomes popular. Ever since ZM went public on April 1st, 2019, it has increased 1372% at September 2020 high. No matter how fast it growth in the future, when a stock moved up over 1000% in a little over a year's time, it's likely a bubble and it won't be sustained for too long. Its forward PE is 173 and its earning growth is expected be be only 15%, price is detached from fundamental.  This is also a bubble especially when the Coronavirus Pandemic fades.

极度乐观的上涨总是会崩溃的，因为投资人情绪化的购买总是夸大了遥远的未来估值。 我们看到这种情况在历史上一遍又一遍地发生。市场周期不断重复，而投资者的情绪总是以同样的方式两极发泄，从而导致市场的繁荣与衰落。就市场交易而言，是没有什么新鲜的。Dotcom泡沫，房贷泡沫，比特币泡沫，大麻泡沫都发生在最近20年之内。 我相信现在正在形成的潜在未来泡沫是EV（电动汽车）泡沫和居家股票泡沫。我提供以下图表作为警告。

网络泡沫：

在1990年代后期，互联网使用和普及的大规模增长时期导致互联网相关的公司受到过度投机而崩盘。在2000年3月崩盘之前，高科技股指数纳斯达克100（$ NDX）在1998年10月低点至2000年3月的17个月中上涨了353％。自崩盘以来到2002年10月NDX共下跌了83％。

在Dotcom泡沫期间，许多科技股都急剧下跌。它们包括AMZN和CSCO。

次贷房屋泡沫：

在2008年次贷房屋泡沫期间，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了53％。从2002年10月到2008年10月，道琼斯指数在崩盘前上涨了97％。造成房地产泡沫的原因是掠夺性私人抵押贷款和不受监管的市场。

比特币泡沫：

从2015年2月的62美元到2017年的高点19666美元，比特币上涨了12800％。由于被投机过度而导致泡沫破裂，该数字资产最终在2018年12月跌至3150美元的低点，下跌了84％。

大麻泡沫：

当加拿大在2017年将大麻合法化时，似乎任何人都想打入大麻市场。大麻的股票疯狂上涨。从2017年6月到2019年10月，大麻股票龙头CGC上涨了1109％。最终，它从2019年的高点跌至2020年3月2日的低点，跌幅为85％。

可能的“ EV泡沫”：

从2019年6月到2020年9月，特斯拉股票TSLA飙升1320％！这巨大的升幅是建立在对特斯拉它不仅是一家汽车公司，而且是一家拥有巨大增长的科学公司的 希望之上的，并且也是对公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的邪教般的崇拜。在最近备受期待的“电池日”上，公司没有显示出投资者所希望的那样有希望的东西。上周四及五，TSLA仍被追随者买入，他们仍然没有放弃。我认为股票价格暴涨无视基本面及众多电动汽车竞争对手紧随其后，TSLA不能避免崩溃。今天，中国的华为表示，他们已经可以做特斯拉可以做的事情。此外，上周，一家鲜为人知的公司SPI 能源宣布已准备好进入电动汽车业务，该股在一天之内竟然飙升了3200％以上。 与能源相关的名称如SUNW在两天内就从0.77上升到8.50（+ 1004％）。这种情况就与网络，比特币和大麻泡沫期间的情况相同，当时与.com，比特币和大麻相关的公司的股票价位都在泡沫破裂之前激增。这是疯狂的东西。如果这不是EV泡沫的迹象，我不知道这是什么。当股价在一年多的时间内上涨超过1000％时，很可能会出现泡沫，价格持续保持时间不会太长。

可能的“居家股票泡沫”：

自从因冠状病毒大流行导致电话会议流行的以来，Zoom（ZM）就已成为家喻户晓的名字。自从ZM在2019年4月1日上市以来，到2020年9月的高点已经增长了1372％。无论未来的增长如何好，当一只股票在一年多的时间内上涨超过1000％时，价格都不会维持太久。ZM的前瞻市盈率为173，预期收益增长却仅为15％，价格严重脱离基本面。这也是一个泡沫，尤其是当冠状病毒大流行消退时。

Understand UVXY And Its Present Upside Potential了解UVXY及其目前的上升潜力

UVXY （22.01） seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one and one-half times (1.5x) the performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index for a single day. The index seeks to offer exposure to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is designed to measure the implied volatility of the S&P 500 over 30 days in the future. 

How is VIX calculated:

VIX index values are calculated using the CBOE-traded standard SPX options (that expire on the third Friday of each month) and using the weekly SPX options (that expire on all other Fridays). Only those SPX options are considered whose expiry period lies within 23 days and 37 days. While the formula is mathematically complex, theoretically it works as follows. It estimates the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index by aggregating the weighted prices of multiple SPX puts and calls over a wide range of strike prices. All such qualifying options should have valid non -zero bid and ask prices that represent the market perception of which options' strike prices will be hit by the underlying stocks during the remaining time to expiry. For how vix is calculated step by step go to: http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf

UVXY is used to participate in the stock market crash and the short-term sharp decline of the US stock market, and the trade must be fast and  is not good for long term hold. The long-term trend is always downward. The low on February 14 this year was 10.53, and it rose to 135 after 5 weeks, +1182%. It rose from 31.42 on May 12 to 49.63 on May 14, +58%. It rose from 27.04 on May 6 to 51, +88% on June 12. It rose from 18.75 on August 26 to 32.18 on September 4, +72%. The present market decline may have the potential to cause UVXY to soar and challenge its September high of 32.18.

Technically, the Dow, S&P 500 , Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 are all below their 50 day moving averages. This means the stock market trend is now on a down trend. Other fundamental negatives for stocks are:

.No 2nd pandemic economic stimulus package from congress is in sight.

.Pandemic getting worst in Europe and other part of the world.

.Continue worsening US/China cold/trade war.

.Presidential election uncertainty.

.Social unrest in the US.

. Goldman Sachs slashed 2020 Q4 GDP estimate from 5.5% to 3%.

.Tech stock valuations are still too high

UVXY （22.01）寻求不计费用和支出的每日投资结果，该结果相当于一天之内标普500 VIX短期期货指数的1.5倍。该指数旨在通过公开交易的期货市场提供市场波动的风险的参与，并旨在衡量标准普尔500指数在未来30天的隐含波动率。

VIX是如何计算的：

使用CBOE交易的标准SPX期权（在每个月的第三个星期五到期的期权）和每周SPX期权（在所有其他的星期五到期的期权）来计算VIX指数值。仅考虑那些有效期在23天和37天内的SPX期权。虽然该公式在数学上很复杂，但理论上它的工作原理如下：它通过汇总多个SPX看跌期权和看涨期权的加权价格（在广泛的行使价范围内）来估算标准普尔500指数的预期波幅。所有这些合格的期权应具有有效的非零买入和卖出价格，这些价格代表市场对在剩余到期时间内股票将达到哪些期权的行使价的看法。有关如何逐步计算vix的信息，请访问：http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf

UVXY是用作参与股灾及美股市短期急跌的，操作要快而不能久留。逻辑是美股跌UVXY升长期趋势总是向下。UVXY在今年2月14低位为10.53，5个星期后后升至135，+ 1182％。5月 12日从31.42升至5月14日的49.63，+ 58％。5月6日从27.04升至6月12日的51，+ 88％。8月26日从18.75升至9月4日的32.18 ，+ 72％。这波市场跌势有导致UVXY飚升而挑战九月高位水平32.18的潜力。

从技术上讲，道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克综合指数和罗素2000指数均低于其50天移动均线。 这意味着股市趋势目前处于下降趋势。 股市的其他基本负面因素包括：

。国会没有第二次大流行的经济刺激方案。

。新冠肺炎在欧洲和世界其他地方越来越严重。

。继续恶化中美冷战/贸易战。

。总统选举的不确定性。

。美国的社会动荡。

。 高盛（Goldman Sachs）将2020第四季度GDP预期从5.5％下调至3％。

。科技股估值仍然过高。

Where Can QQQ Go Down To QQQ 可能跌倒哪里

 Now that most of the mega cap tech stocks are mostly below their 50 day moving averages, the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ is solidly below its 50 day moving average and has more downside to go. Reasonable technical support levels are the 38% retracement level at 250 and 200 day moving average at 232, they represent -17.5% and -23% respectively from the 303 intraday top level made on September 2, 2020.  QQQ's upside resistance is now at 50 day moving average level at 273. The sell signal for accelerated downside for QQQ is when CCI crosses below -100 level and this will likely happen tomorrow. 

现在，大多数大型高科技股的股票都低于它们的50天移动平均线，纳斯达克100指数ETF QQQ也明显的低于其50天移动平均线，这显示QQQ还有更多的下跌空间。 合理的技术支撑位是38％回调位250和200日移动平均线232水平，它们分别比2020年9月2日创下的303日内最高位高-17.5％和-23％。QQQ上面的阻力现在是50 日移动平均线位于273。QQQ加速下行的卖出信号是当CCI跌破-100以下时，看来明天就可能会发生。

UVXY May Be Ready To Surge UVXY 或许要准备大升

US major market indexes have been correcting since September 2, 2020 tops. However, with major market indexes have come down around 10%, the market is in correction and it may not be over. As all major market indexes and major tech stocks such as AMZN, GOOG, FB ,MSFT,AAPL, NVDA,CSCO and INTC are mostly below their 50 day moving averages, their trends have now changed from up to down. Major market indexes are having oversold bounces now but more down side is likely when they get turn back by the 50 day moving averages.  For the last couple of weeks, as the indexes were coming down so was UVXY. This kind of divergence doesn't make sense. The only thing I can think of is investor sentiment is too optimistic, not believing that market can go down more and ready to buy dips. I think it is a buying opportunity for UVXY, as it may accelerate to the upside to compensate the drop due to previous period of divergence. UVXY has formed a bullish Double Bottom pattern and is starting to move up even in the face of a strong market today. It has been pushed down too low. It's potential rise may be similar to the rise happen between August and September if the market continues to correct.  Market correction will likely continues and when there is no extreme surge in the price of UVXY, we are not likely to see the market bottom.

自2020年9月2日见顶以来，美国主要市场指数一直在下跌修正。随着主要市场指数下跌了10％左右，市场正处于调整之中，并且可能还没有结束。 由于所有主要市场指数和主要科技股（例如AMZN，GOOG，FB，MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, CSCO 和 INTC）大部分都低于它们的50天移动平均线，因此它们的趋势现在已经从上上升变成下跌而应该还会有更多的下行空间。主要市场指数现在出现超卖反弹，但当它们回到50天移动平均线处时，很可能会被阻再跌。在过去的两个多星期中，随着市场指数的下跌，UVXY也下跌。 这种背离是没有道理的。 我唯一能想到的是，投资者的情绪过于乐观，不相信市场不会下跌太多并准备逢低买入。 我认为这是买入UVXY的机会，因为它可能会加速上涨，以弥补前期背离导致的下跌。技术上 UVXY已经形成了看涨的双底形态，即使面对今天的强劲市场也开始上升。 它实在被推得太低了。如果市场继续下跌调整它可能会有八月到九月般的类似涨幅。市场调整将继续，当UVXY价位没有极端激增时，我们不太可能看到市场触底。

4 Reasons Why TSLA will Be Down After Battery Day电池日后TSLA将下跌的4个原因

1. Below are what Elon Mush promised during the 2019 "Autonomy Day"on April 22, 2019 (Source: Bill Maurer):

CEO Elon Musk talked about the company having a million robo-taxis on the road this year. That idea has all but been struck down, especially since the "automatic driving on city streets" self-driving feature that was supposed to be out in 2019 still isn't completely ready to hit the road.

Musk's promise to have a Tesla vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals on the road in the first half of next year. That's probably years away given where Tesla's software stands now, especially with recent tests in China showing the company's vehicles unable to stop for pedestrians.

Investors are also aware of the numerous product and service promises that the company has made over the years that have not come to fruition as detailed-like the $35,000 Model 3, solar roof, battery swap, etc.

Investors should now learn that Elon Musk frequently promise something that don't come to fruition. So whatever he is going to talk about tomorrow on "Battery Day" are also going to be the same. TSLA likely will sell off after tomorrow's announcement especially when it has rallied strongly into tomorrow's event. Tesla stock plummeted 32% in the following 1 1/2 month after the "Autonomy Day" last year.

What happened last year after "Autonomy Day":

What likely happen after tomorrow's "Battery  Day":

2. After market close today, Elon Musk tweeted that "what we announce [tomorrow] will not reach serious high-volume production until 2022" and adding that "even with our cell suppliers going at maximum speed, we still foresee significant shortages in 2022 & beyond unless we also take action ourselves. " TSLA fell nearly 6% to $423 in extended trade.

3. Before anything big products come about besides selling electric cars, Tesla is still a car company. TSLA's main product is Electric Vehicles, and it has a lot of competitors. Its competitors include Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Volvo, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, GM, Toyota, Mazda, NIO, Li Auto, Nissan .... In the United States its competitors are General Motors (GM), Nikola Corp. (NKLA), Workhorse Group (WKHS), Canoo Holdings (CNOO), Lordstown Motors (RIDE). At this time people may think that EV from TSLA is more superior than the others, but in time the others can catch up. TSLA is not the EV monopoly.

4. As of today's closing price of $449.39, TSLA is up 7.09%/week, +12.24%/month, +125.98%/quarter, +417.38%/ half year, +833.82%/year and +437.12% year today. These kind of gains are frothy and not likely to be sustainable. TSLA's capitalization at $401 billions almost 2 times larger than Toyota's (TM) $213 billions. Toyota sold 11 million cars last year Vs Tesla's 324,780 cars. When math doesn't add up, TSLA has a problem. TSLA stock price is up base on hope. Hope for what I don't know. 

1.以下是埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在2019年4月22日的2019年“自治日”中所的承诺（来源：比尔·莫拉尔 Bill Maurer）：

首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）谈到了该公司今年会在路上行驶着一百万辆出租车的情况。这个想法几乎被打消了，特别是因为原本应该在2019年推出的“在城市街道上自动驾驶”自动驾驶功能仍未完全准备就绪。

马斯克承诺在明年上半年生产出一辆没有方向盘或踏板的特斯拉汽车。考虑到特斯拉软件现在所处的位置，这可能需要数年的时间，尤其是在中国最近进行的测试显示该公司的车辆无法为行人停下的情况下。

投资者还意识到公司多年来做出的许多产品和服务承诺都并未具体实现，例如价值35,000美元的Model 3，太阳能屋顶，电池更换等。

投资者现在应该了解到，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）经常承诺不会实现的事情。因此，无论他明天在“电池日”上谈论什么也是一样。 TSLA很可能会在明天的宣布之后遭到抛售，尤其是在明天的事件之前它已经强劲上升了。以历史为鉴，去年“自治日”过后的1 1/2个月内，TSLA股价暴跌32％。

去年“自治日”之后发生了什么：

在明天的“电池日”之后可能发生的情况：

2.在今天市场收盘后，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）发推文说，“我们[明天]宣布的将要到2022年才能实现大量生产。”他补充说：“即使我们的电池供应商以最大的速度发展，除非我们也采取行动，否则我们仍然预计2022年及以后会有严重的短缺。” TSLA后市交易下跌近6％，至423美元。

3. 在还没有其它大产品出来之前，特斯拉就只是一家汽车制造商。 TSLA的主要产品是电动汽车但它有很多竞争对手。它的竞争对手包括梅赛德斯，奥迪，宝马，沃尔沃，大众，现代，起亚，通用，丰田，马自达，蔚来，力拓，日产...。在美国，其竞争对手则是通用汽车（GM），尼古拉公司（NKLA），Workhorse Group（WKHS），Canoo Holdings（CNOO），Lordstown Motors（RIDE）。此时，人们可能会认为TSLA的EV优于其他EV，但是随着时间的推移，其他EV可以赶上。 TSLA不是电动汽车的垄断者。

4.以今天的收盘价449.39美元来算，TSLA一周上涨7.09％，一个月上涨+ 12.24％，一季度上涨+ 125.98％，半年上涨+ 417.38％，一年上涨+ 833.82％，今年以来上涨+ 437.12％。这种上升是泡沫性的，不可能持续下去。 TSLA的市值为4010亿美元，几乎是丰田（TM）2130亿美元的两倍。丰田去年售出了1,100万辆汽车，而特斯拉则只卖了324,780辆。数字是如此的加不上来，则TSLA有问题。 TSLA股价是基于希望而上涨的，什么希望我不知道。

WPRT A Low Price Stock With Potential 有潜力的低价股WPRT

Westport Fuel Systems Inc. (WPRT $2.25) engineers, manufactures, and supplies alternative fuel systems and components for use in transportation applications worldwide. It operates through Transportation and Cummins Westport Inc. (CWI) Joint Venture segments. The company offers alternative fuel systems and components, which include a range of alternative fuels, such as liquefied petroleum gas, compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas, renewable natural gas, and hydrogen; and independent aftermarket, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and delayed OEMs, electronics, current and advanced research and development programs , supply chain, and product planning activities. It also provides Westport High Pressure Direct Injection 2.0, a fully integrated system that powers compression ignition engines by natural gas, which reduces greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the company develops, sells, and markets spark -ignited natural gas or propane engines; and CWI engines for transit, school and shutt le buses, conventional trucks and tractors, refuse collection trucks, and specialty vehicles, such as short-haul port drayage trucks and street sweepers. Its products and services are used for passenger cars; light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks; and horsepower, cryogenics, and hydrogen applications. Westport Fuel Systems Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Positives for WPRT:

1. Westport Fuel Systems (WPRT) shares are trading higher on Friday(September 18, 2020). The company announced its Weichai Westport joint venture received certification from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China for its 12-liter engine equipped with the HPDI 2.0 fuel system. ---Benzinga, September 18, 2020 

According to company press release "Once in production, Westport Fuel Systems will supply critical HPDI 2.0 system components to WWI, each of which is required for every HPDI 2.0 engine sold by WWI. WWI has committed to purchase HPDI 2.0 system components required for a minimum of 18,000 HPDI 2.0 engines between the launch date and the end of 2023. In addition, Westport Fuel Systems will receive a royalty payment from WWI for each engine sold in consideration of the HPDI license rights provided to WWI. WWI will market and sell the heavy-duty natural gas engines with the Westport HPDI 2.0 technology to various truck original equipment manufacturers ("OEMs").

2. Westport Fuel Systems Inc. (“Westport Fuel Systems” or the “Company”) (TSX:WPRT / Nasdaq:WPRT) today announced that it has signed definitive agreements with its joint venture partner in India, UNO MINDA Group (“UNO MINDA” or the “Group”), to sell the assets of its wholly owned subsidiary Rohan BRC Gas Equipment Pvt. Ltd. to Minda Emer Technologies Ltd., a 50%/50% joint venture owned by Westport Fuel Systems and UNO MINDA. “India is one of the largest and fastest growing markets for CNG (compressed natural gas)vehicles given its commitment to sustainable and cost-competitive transportation” said David M. Johnson, Chief Executive Officer of Westport Fuel Systems. “The combination of Westport Fuel Systems' technologies and products with UNO MINDA's local expertise and relationships strongly positions us to compete and grow in India. Building on our decade-long and successful partnership with UNO MINDA, we are very pleased to take this next step with them to serve this strategically important market."- --Globalnewswire, September 15, 2020

3. Westport Fuel Systems Inc. announced on August 31, 2020 that it has been awarded a long-term agreement for the supply of electronic control units to a leading Tier One automotive supplier. It is a 7 year contract and estimated to generate sales of $58 millions .

4. Westport announced a 15 million euro loan for its Italian subsidiary. The company also got a $10 million term credit facility from Export Development Canada. Finally, convertible notes were refinanced to lower the interest rate paid from 9% to 6.5% and extend the maturity by three years. The convert price was lowered from $1.27 to $1.42 per share. Westport did agree to pay down the debt from $17.5 million to $10 million as part of the deal. ---Yahoo finance, July 27,2020

5. Investors are friendly towards companies in the  environmental, social, and governance (ESG) friendly space. According to research provider ETF Flows, annualized investment in companies that have marketed themselves as sympathetic to ESG concerns is expected to grow 40% this year. 

6. Zacks positive analysis: Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Westport has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

7. Opening of the economies should help WPRT.

8. Earning estimate for next year is +185%, and +30% for the next 5 years. Consensus analyst rating is Buy, target $3.9.

9. Technicals: After risen 234% from $0.70 to $2.34 (March low to August high), WPRT corrected back down to around $1.60 (50 day moving average) and found support there. It then surged nearly 39% up last Friday with 59 times average volume. Upside momentum is huge. It will likely challenge the $2.50 level immediately and will likely break through. Once $2.50 is broken, the next target area is $3 to $3.5 in the short run. WPRT has been basing below $5 since 2015, $5 is definitely a good target for longer term. Supports are $2 and then $1.60

Westport Fuel Systems Inc. (WPRT $2.25) 设计，制造并提供供全球运输应用使用的替代燃料系统和部件。它通过运输和康明斯西港公司（CWI）合资企业部门运营。该公司提供替代燃料系统和组件，其中包括一系列替代燃料，例如液化石油气，压缩天然气，液化天然气，可再生天然气和氢气；以及独立的售后市场，原始设备制造商（OEM）和延迟的OEM，电子产品，当前和高级研究与开发计划，供应链以及产品计划活动。它还提供了Westport高压直接喷射2.0，这是一个完全集成的系统，该系统通过天然气为压燃式发动机提供动力，从而减少了温室气体的排放。此外，该公司还开发和销售火花点火式天然气或丙烷发动机。以及用于公交，学校和封闭式公交车，常规卡车和拖拉机，垃圾收集卡车以及特种车辆（如短途港口拖运卡车和清扫车）的CWI发动机。其产品和服务用于乘用车；轻型，中型和重型卡车；以及马力，低温和氢气应用。 西港燃料系统公司成立于1995年，总部位于加拿大温哥华。

WPRT的优点：

1. Westport Fuel Systems（WPRT）股价在周五（2020年9月18日）上涨。该公司宣布其潍柴西港合资公司的12升发动机配备HPDI 2.0燃油系统，已获得中国生态与环境部的认证。 --- Benzinga，2020年9月18日

据公司新闻稿称：“ Westport Fuel Systems一旦投入生产，将向WWI提供关键的HPDI 2.0系统组件，WWI出售的每台HPDI 2.0引擎都需要这些组件。WWI承诺购买最低限度的HPDI 2.0系统组件。在发布日期至2023年末之间，将需要18,000台HPDI 2.0发动机。此外，考虑到向WWI提供的HPDI许可权，Westport Fuel Systems将向WWI收取每台出售的发动机的特许权使用费。具备Westport HPDI 2.0技术的轻型天然气发动机，供应给各种卡车原始设备制造商（OEM）。

2.西港燃料系统公司（“西港燃料系统”或“公司”）（TSX：WPRT /纳斯达克：WPRT）今天宣布，已与其印度合资伙伴UNO MINDA Group（“ UNO”）签署了最终协议。 MINDA”或“集团”）出售其全资子公司Rohan BRC Gas Equipment Pvt  Ltd.的资产。由Westport Fuel Systems和UNO MINDA拥有50％/ 50％的合资企业Minda Emer Technologies Ltd.。西港燃料系统公司首席执行官戴维·约翰逊（David M. Johnson）表示：“鉴于印度致力于可持续发展和具有成本竞争力的运输，印度是CNG(压缩天然气）车辆最大和增长最快的市场之一。 “ Westport Fuel Systems的技术和产品与UNO MINDA在当地的专业知识和关系的结合，有力地使我们能够在印度竞争和发展。在我们与UNO MINDA长达十年的成功合作伙伴关系的基础上，我们非常高兴与他们一起迈出下一步，为这个具有战略意义的市场服务。”--Globalnewswire，2020年9月15日

3. Westport Fuel Systems Inc.在2020年8月31日宣布，已与一家领先的一级汽车供应商签订了长期供应电子控制单元的协议。这是一项为期7年的合同，预计将产生5800万美元的销售额。

4. Westport宣布为其意大利子公司提供1500万欧元的贷款。该公司还从加拿大出口发展局获得了1000万加元的定期信贷。最后，对可转换票据进行了再融资，以将支付的利率从9％降低至6.5％，并将到期期限延长三年。转换价格从每股1.27美元降至1.42美元。 Westport确实同意将债务从1750万美元减至1000万美元，作为交易的一部分。 ---雅虎财经，2020年7月27日

5.投资者对在环境，社会和治理（ESG）友好领域中的公司很感兴趣。根据研究提供商ETF Flows的数据，对那些对ESG问题表示同情的公司的年度投资预计今年将增长40％。

6. Zacks积极的分析：股票的估计数一直在上升，这些修订的幅度看起来很有希望。 Westport拥有Zacks排名第一（强买），这不足为奇。我们预计未来几个月该股票的回报将​​高于平均水平。

7. 经济从疫情的开放将对WPRT有利。

8.明年的收入估计为+ 185％，接下来的5年平均为+ 30％。分析师的共识评级为买入，目标价为3.9美元。

9.技术分析：WPRT从0.70美元上涨234％至2.34美元（3月低点至8月高点）后，回调至1.60美元附近（50日移动均线），并在该那里获得支撑。 然后，上周五飙升了近39％，成交量为平均成交量为59倍。 上涨动力巨大。 它可能会立即挑战2.50美元的水平，并很可能会突破。 一旦突破$ 2.50，短期内下一个目标区域是$ 3至$ 3.5。 自2015年以来，WPRT一直低于$ 5，长期而言，$ 5绝对是一个可到的目标。支撑是$2然后$1.60.

KODK Shows Sign Of Life From Near Death KODK濒临死亡中现生机

Eastman Kodak Company (KODK 10.70 +25.73%) provides hardware, software, consumables, and services to customers in the graphic arts, commercial print, publishing, electronic displays, entertainment and commercial films, and consumer products markets worldwide. The company operates in six segments: Print Systems, Enterprise Inkjet Systems, Software and Solutions, Consumer and Film, Advanced Materials and 3D Printing Technology, and Eastman Business Park.

How Kodak obtained the $765 million contract in late July that moved stock up 2717% in 2 days:

"The International Development Finance Corporation will sign a letter of interest to provide a $765 million loan to the Eastman Kodak Company. The loan will support the launch of Kodak Pharmaceuticals and will mark DFC's first investment using the president's executive order supporting domestic response to Covid-19 under the Defense Production Act."  Adam Boehler, CEO of the International Development Finance Corporation said in “Squawk Box”---CNBC, July 28,2020

"On a white board in his office earlier this year, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro made a list of potential companies that could manufacture pharmaceuticals in the U.S. He separated them into three columns, one for each stage of the production process. Eastman Kodak Co. stood out, overlapping two of the three columns. The way Mr. Navarro saw it, he recalled, Kodak could help produce the ingredients to jump- start generic drug production and ease the country's reliance on foreign supplies.When a proposed $765 million contract was made public in late July between Kodak and the federal government, investors and lawmakers had questions, chief among them: Why pick Kodak, a struggling photography company?Many of the answers point back to Mr. Navarro, who spearheaded the idea and then used his sway within the administration to help Kodak navigate the bureaucracy to be first in line for the potential contract, including tapping an obscure government agency to help push the loan through the final stages." ---Wall Street Journal

After went up 2717% from $2.13 to $60 in 2 days on the announcement of the $765 million contract on , stock  retraced to $14.57 if the following 7 days. A retrace of near 76% from its peak of $60. The big retracement of KODK before any bad news is indicative the over hype of the effect of the contract.  

News that caused KODK stock price dropped from $14.57 to $5.5:

"Eastman Kodak Co. shares lost more than a quarter of their value Monday after news that a planned $765 million loan to the company was put on hold as the deal has come under congressional and regulatory scrutiny. The US International Development Finance Corp. announced plans last month to loan Kodak the funds to produce drug ingredients at its factories. But in a tweet late Friday, the agency said that “recent allegations of wrongdoing raise serious concerns. We will not proceed any further unless these allegations are cleared."A Kodak spokeswoman said Monday that it “appreciates and supports” the decision by the agency to await clarification before moving forward with the process. The company said on Friday it would launch an internal review. "---Wall Street Journal , August 10, 2020

It took about a month after the bad news for KODK price to drop from $14.57 to $5.5.

News that trigged the recent two day rally:

"The law firm hired by Eastman Kodak (KODK) to independently investigate the propriety of awarding its top executives stock options just prior to announcing receipt of a major government loan has largely absolved the former camera and film company of any wrongdoing. The investigation concluded that while internal procedures should be updated, there was nothing wrong with Kodak issuing its CEO and others options for millions of shares the day before it announced the loan. " ---The Motley Fool, September 16, 2020

"The special committee hired by Kodak blamed disclosure issues on a junior employee, who was able to modify the media advisory in a way that made it appear as if the information wasn't embargoed. On concerns surrounding the options grants, the special committee said there was no intent to manipulate their timing, and a well-timed gift made by Kodak board member George Karfunkel doesn't appear to have violated federal securities laws." ---Seeking Alpha, September 16, 2020

"The administration wants this deal done as it repatriates the manufacture of key ingredients from China to the US China recently threatened to cut off this vital, life-saving supply chain. The loss of this supply chain is unacceptable. The solution is to repatriate the supply chain. There are not as many manufacturing facilities in the US as there used to be. Finding an under-utilized resource like Kodak with their Eastman Kodak business park for manufacturing is a good fit for this effort to repatriate the supply chain. This deal makes sense."---comments from Bull and Bear Trading 

What next after a 2 day rally of 72%?

After an independent investigation cleared Kodak of wrong doing, the SEC and the International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) investigations are still going on. Even if these two investigations also clear Kodak of wrong doing, it is still no guarantee that the $765 million contract will be reinstated.  However, the last two days of rally has raised interest of momentum traders ,retail investors and hedge funds alike, KODK price may have more room to go. I think $60 or even $30 is a fantasy to go back to since even with a contract KODK price still fell back to 14.57 in August. While waiting for further news, KODK may trade between $10 to $17.5 base on technical factors.  I think it should only be a short term momentum trade while investors are still hot on the stock on hope of the contract will resume. However, it may not worth the risk to hang on as long term investment. 

Bullish technicals that may push KODK up:

1. Big move with huge volume, breaking above resistance at $10 should bring in momentum buying and short covering. 

2. Top of down gap level at $14.57 should serve as magnet pulling stock up.

3. Almost 29% short and small flow of only 57 million shares should facilitate short squeeze.

4. Bullish Double Bottom pattern should also help. 

5. Support levels are $10 then $8. Resistances are $14.57 then $17.5.

伊士曼柯达公司（KODK 10.70 +25.73%）为全球图形艺术，商业印刷，出版，电子显示器，娱乐和商业电影以及消费品市场的客户提供硬件，软件，消耗品和服务。该公司的业务分为六个部分：打印系统，企业喷墨系统，软件和解决方案，消费类和胶片，先进材料和3D打印技术以及伊士曼商业园。

柯达如何在7月下旬获得7.65亿美元的合同，从而在两天内使股票上涨了2717％：

“国际发展金融公司 (IDFC) 将签署一份意向书，向伊士曼柯达公司提供7.65亿美元的贷款。这笔贷款将支持柯达制药公司的启动，并将标志着DFC的第一笔投资，是利用总统的行政命令支持国内对Covid-根据《国防生产法》第19条的规定而实行“国际开发金融公司（International Development Finance Corporation）首席执行官亚当·勃勒（Adam Boehler）在“ Squawk Box”说。” --- CNBC，2020年7月28日

“今年早些时候，特朗普贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）在他办公室的白板上，列出了可以在美国生产药品的公司对象。他将它们分成三栏，每一栏用于代表生产过程。伊士曼·柯达公司（Eastman Kodak Co.）他回忆说，纳瓦罗先生的观感很突出，重叠了三栏中的两栏，柯达可以帮助生产原料，从而开始仿制药生产，并减轻该国对外国供应的依赖。柯达与联邦政府的合约在7月下旬公开之后，投资者和立法者都提出了疑问，其中主要是：为什么选择一家陷入困境的摄影公司柯达？许多答案都指向纳瓦罗（Navarro）先生，他率先提出了这个想法，然后在政府内部游说引导官僚机构以帮助柯达成为合同的首选，包括利用一个不起眼的政府机构来帮助该笔贷款通过初始阶段。”- - -华尔街日报

在宣布7.65亿美元合同后，在2天之内从2.31美元的价格上涨2717％至60美元，但在接下来的7天股价回撤至14.57美元，从其峰值60美元回撤近76％。在出现任何坏消息之前，KODK的大幅回调表明该合约的影响被大肆高估。

导致KODK股票价格从14.57美元跌至5.5美元的新闻：

“ Eastman Kodak Co.股价周一下跌了逾四分之一，此前有消息称，由于该合约已受到国会和监管机构的审查，原定给该公司的7.65亿美元贷款计划被搁置。美国国际开发金融公司（US International Development Finance Corp.）上个月宣布了计划，向柯达借出用于生产药品原料工厂的资金。但该机构在周五晚些时候的一条推文中说：“最近关于不法行为的指控引起了人们的严重关注。除非这些指控被清除，否则我们将不做任何进一步的处理。”可达公司发言人周一表示，它“赞赏并支持”该机构等待澄清的决定，然后再继续该程​​序。该公司周五表示将启动内部审查。 “ ---《华尔街日报》，2020年8月10日

坏消息使KODK价格从14.57美元在大约一个月的时间跌至5.5美元。

最近两天导致KODK反弹的新闻：

“伊士曼·柯达（KODK）聘请的律师事务所独立调查在宣布收到一笔巨额政府贷款之前授予其高管人员股票选择权的适当性，调查得出的结论是基本上免除了前身为照相机和胶卷公司的任何不适当做法。尽管应该更新改善内部程序，但柯达在宣布贷款的前一天发给其首席执行官和其他人员期权以换取数百万股股份并没有错。” --- The Motley Fool，2020年9月16日

“柯达聘请的特别调查委员会将披露问题归咎于一名初级雇员，该雇员以某种方式修改媒体咨询，使该信息看起来好像不在禁止披露之列。在授予股票选择权方面懂事会并没有意图操纵时间安排，而柯达董事会成员乔治·卡芬克尔（George Karfunkel）精心准备的礼物似乎并未违反联邦证券法。” ---SeekingAlpha，2020年9月16日

“政府希望这笔交易能够完成，因为它把从中国进口的关键原料的生产运回美国。中国最近威胁要切断这一至关重要的，挽救生命的供应链。这条供应链的损失是不可接受的。解决方案是将供应链运回美国。在美国，制造设施已经不像以前那么多了，能够找到像伊士曼柯达商业园一这样未得到充分利用的资源进行制造，就很适合这项将供应链遣返的工作。” ---Bull and Bear Trading 上的评论

经过2天的上涨72％之后走势如何看？

在独立调查清除了柯达的犯错之后，SEC和国际开发金融公司（IDFC）的调查仍在进行中。即使这两个调查也不认为柯达有错，仍然不能保证将恢复7.65亿美元的合同。然而，最近两天的上涨已经引起了动力交易者，零售投资者和对冲基金的兴趣，KODK的价格可能还有更大的上涨空间。我认为到达60美元甚至30美元是一个幻想，因为尽管8月份KODK合同还没有被叫停时股价仍然回落至14.57美元。在等待更多消息时，基于技术因素，KODK可能会在10到17.5美元之间交易。在投资者仍对KODK保持高度兴趣，又对恢复合约有所期盼的现在，我认为是进行短期动力交易的好时机，但长期持有作为投资则不值得冒这个险。

下面的技术特性可能会推高KODK：

1.高交投量大幅上涨突破10美元的阻力位将带来动力购买和空头回补。

2.下行缺口顶部（14.57美元）应能吸引股票上涨。

3.几乎29％的空头，只有5700万股的少量流通应该会促进空头挤压上升。

4.看涨的双底形态也有帮助。

5.支撑水平是10美元，然后是8美元。 阻力位是14.57美元，然后是17.5美元。

Reiterating Buy On SRNE重申买入SRNE

Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc., (SRNE 9.98 +19.38%) is a clinical stage biopharma company, develops therapies for cancer, autoimmune, inflammatory, and neurodegenerative diseases. 

SRNE has already included in our Diversified Portfolio since August 5 this year ( https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/08/a-diversified-aggressive-growth.html)  and today is a good time to buy more.

Positives for SRNE:

1.Sorrento receives US FDA clearance to proceed with Phase 1 Clinical Trial of STI-1499 (COVI-GUARD) Neutralizing Antibody in COVID-19 positive patients. Sorrento noted in its press release that an EUA application could be submitted to FDA for approval.

2.Other near term catalysts are:

COVI-TRACE™ Diagnostic Test:FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) Application Expected

COVI-TRACK™ Antibody Test:FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) Application Under Review

3.The company has 13 other things in the development pipeline. Its ABIVERTINIB for Immunotherapy is in Phase III trial.

4. Technically it has formed a most bullish Island Reversal chart pattern. Near term price targets are $12-14. It was at $19.39 on August 10 this year.

5. It has 34% shorted shares and short squeeze will likely forces price higher.

Sorrento Therapeutics，Inc.（SRNE 9.98 +19.38%)是一家临床生物制药公司，致力于开发用于癌症，自身免疫，炎性和神经退行性疾病的疗法。

自今年8月5日以来，SRNE已经包含在我们的多元化投资组合中（https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/08/a-diversified-aggressive-growth.html），而今天是购买更多股票的好时机。

SRNE的优势：

1，SRNE获得美国FDA批准，可在COVID-19阳性患者中进行STI-1499（COVI-GUARD）中和抗体的1期临床试验。SRNE在其新闻稿中指出，可以在年底前将EUA申请提交给FDA批准。

2，其他近期催化剂是：

COVI-TRACE™诊断测试：有望获得FDA紧急使用授权（EUA）应用

COVI-TRACK™抗体测试：正在审查FDA紧急使用授权（EUA）应用

3.公司还有其他13项产品正在开发中。 其用于免疫疗法的ABIVERTINIB处于III期试验中。

4.从技术上讲，它已经形成了最看涨的岛形向上反转图表形态。 近期目标价为12-14美元。今年 8月10日时价格为19.39美元。

5.它有34％的空头股票，而空头挤压很可能会迫使价格上涨。