1. Below are what Elon Mush promised during the 2019 "Autonomy Day"on April 22, 2019 (Source: Bill Maurer):
CEO Elon Musk talked about the company having a million robo-taxis on the road this year. That idea has all but been struck down, especially since the "automatic driving on city streets" self-driving feature that was supposed to be out in 2019 still isn't completely ready to hit the road.
Musk's promise to have a Tesla vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals on the road in the first half of next year. That's probably years away given where Tesla's software stands now, especially with recent tests in China showing the company's vehicles unable to stop for pedestrians.
Investors are also aware of the numerous product and service promises that the company has made over the years that have not come to fruition as detailed-like the $35,000 Model 3, solar roof, battery swap, etc.
Investors should now learn that Elon Musk frequently promise something that don't come to fruition. So whatever he is going to talk about tomorrow on "Battery Day" are also going to be the same. TSLA likely will sell off after tomorrow's announcement especially when it has rallied strongly into tomorrow's event. Tesla stock plummeted 32% in the following 1 1/2 month after the "Autonomy Day" last year.
What happened last year after "Autonomy Day":
What likely happen after tomorrow's "Battery Day":
2. After market close today, Elon Musk tweeted that "what we announce [tomorrow] will not reach serious high-volume production until 2022" and adding that "even with our cell suppliers going at maximum speed, we still foresee significant shortages in 2022 & beyond unless we also take action ourselves. " TSLA fell nearly 6% to $423 in extended trade.
3. Before anything big products come about besides selling electric cars, Tesla is still a car company. TSLA's main product is Electric Vehicles, and it has a lot of competitors. Its competitors include Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Volvo, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, GM, Toyota, Mazda, NIO, Li Auto, Nissan .... In the United States its competitors are General Motors (GM), Nikola Corp. (NKLA), Workhorse Group (WKHS), Canoo Holdings (CNOO), Lordstown Motors (RIDE). At this time people may think that EV from TSLA is more superior than the others, but in time the others can catch up. TSLA is not the EV monopoly.
4. As of today's closing price of $449.39, TSLA is up 7.09%/week, +12.24%/month, +125.98%/quarter, +417.38%/ half year, +833.82%/year and +437.12% year today. These kind of gains are frothy and not likely to be sustainable. TSLA's capitalization at $401 billions almost 2 times larger than Toyota's (TM) $213 billions. Toyota sold 11 million cars last year Vs Tesla's 324,780 cars. When math doesn't add up, TSLA has a problem. TSLA stock price is up base on hope. Hope for what I don't know.
1.以下是埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在2019年4月22日的2019年“自治日”中所的承诺（来源：比尔·莫拉尔 Bill Maurer）：
首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）谈到了该公司今年会在路上行驶着一百万辆出租车的情况。这个想法几乎被打消了，特别是因为原本应该在2019年推出的“在城市街道上自动驾驶”自动驾驶功能仍未完全准备就绪。
马斯克承诺在明年上半年生产出一辆没有方向盘或踏板的特斯拉汽车。考虑到特斯拉软件现在所处的位置，这可能需要数年的时间，尤其是在中国最近进行的测试显示该公司的车辆无法为行人停下的情况下。
投资者还意识到公司多年来做出的许多产品和服务承诺都并未具体实现，例如价值35,000美元的Model 3，太阳能屋顶，电池更换等。
投资者现在应该了解到，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）经常承诺不会实现的事情。因此，无论他明天在“电池日”上谈论什么也是一样。 TSLA很可能会在明天的宣布之后遭到抛售，尤其是在明天的事件之前它已经强劲上升了。以历史为鉴，去年“自治日”过后的1 1/2个月内，TSLA股价暴跌32％。
去年“自治日”之后发生了什么：
2.在今天市场收盘后，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）发推文说，“我们[明天]宣布的将要到2022年才能实现大量生产。”他补充说：“即使我们的电池供应商以最大的速度发展，除非我们也采取行动，否则我们仍然预计2022年及以后会有严重的短缺。” TSLA后市交易下跌近6％，至423美元。
3. 在还没有其它大产品出来之前，特斯拉就只是一家汽车制造商。 TSLA的主要产品是电动汽车但它有很多竞争对手。它的竞争对手包括梅赛德斯，奥迪，宝马，沃尔沃，大众，现代，起亚，通用，丰田，马自达，蔚来，力拓，日产...。在美国，其竞争对手则是通用汽车（GM），尼古拉公司（NKLA），Workhorse Group（WKHS），Canoo Holdings（CNOO），Lordstown Motors（RIDE）。此时，人们可能会认为TSLA的EV优于其他EV，但是随着时间的推移，其他EV可以赶上。 TSLA不是电动汽车的垄断者。
4.以今天的收盘价449.39美元来算，TSLA一周上涨7.09％，一个月上涨+ 12.24％，一季度上涨+ 125.98％，半年上涨+ 417.38％，一年上涨+ 833.82％，今年以来上涨+ 437.12％。这种上升是泡沫性的，不可能持续下去。 TSLA的市值为4010亿美元，几乎是丰田（TM）2130亿美元的两倍。丰田去年售出了1,100万辆汽车，而特斯拉则只卖了324,780辆。数字是如此的加不上来，则TSLA有问题。 TSLA股价是基于希望而上涨的，什么希望我不知道。
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