Eastman Kodak Company (KODK 10.70 +25.73%) provides hardware, software, consumables, and services to customers in the graphic arts, commercial print, publishing, electronic displays, entertainment and commercial films, and consumer products markets worldwide. The company operates in six segments: Print Systems, Enterprise Inkjet Systems, Software and Solutions, Consumer and Film, Advanced Materials and 3D Printing Technology, and Eastman Business Park.
How Kodak obtained the $765 million contract in late July that moved stock up 2717% in 2 days:
"The International Development Finance Corporation will sign a letter of interest to provide a $765 million loan to the Eastman Kodak Company. The loan will support the launch of Kodak Pharmaceuticals and will mark DFC's first investment using the president's executive order supporting domestic response to Covid-19 under the Defense Production Act." Adam Boehler, CEO of the International Development Finance Corporation said in “Squawk Box”---CNBC, July 28,2020
"On a white board in his office earlier this year, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro made a list of potential companies that could manufacture pharmaceuticals in the U.S. He separated them into three columns, one for each stage of the production process. Eastman Kodak Co. stood out, overlapping two of the three columns. The way Mr. Navarro saw it, he recalled, Kodak could help produce the ingredients to jump- start generic drug production and ease the country's reliance on foreign supplies.When a proposed $765 million contract was made public in late July between Kodak and the federal government, investors and lawmakers had questions, chief among them: Why pick Kodak, a struggling photography company?Many of the answers point back to Mr. Navarro, who spearheaded the idea and then used his sway within the administration to help Kodak navigate the bureaucracy to be first in line for the potential contract, including tapping an obscure government agency to help push the loan through the final stages." ---Wall Street Journal
After went up 2717% from $2.13 to $60 in 2 days on the announcement of the $765 million contract on , stock retraced to $14.57 if the following 7 days. A retrace of near 76% from its peak of $60. The big retracement of KODK before any bad news is indicative the over hype of the effect of the contract.
News that caused KODK stock price dropped from $14.57 to $5.5:
"Eastman Kodak Co. shares lost more than a quarter of their value Monday after news that a planned $765 million loan to the company was put on hold as the deal has come under congressional and regulatory scrutiny. The US International Development Finance Corp. announced plans last month to loan Kodak the funds to produce drug ingredients at its factories. But in a tweet late Friday, the agency said that “recent allegations of wrongdoing raise serious concerns. We will not proceed any further unless these allegations are cleared."A Kodak spokeswoman said Monday that it “appreciates and supports” the decision by the agency to await clarification before moving forward with the process. The company said on Friday it would launch an internal review. "---Wall Street Journal , August 10, 2020
It took about a month after the bad news for KODK price to drop from $14.57 to $5.5.
News that trigged the recent two day rally:
"The law firm hired by Eastman Kodak (KODK) to independently investigate the propriety of awarding its top executives stock options just prior to announcing receipt of a major government loan has largely absolved the former camera and film company of any wrongdoing. The investigation concluded that while internal procedures should be updated, there was nothing wrong with Kodak issuing its CEO and others options for millions of shares the day before it announced the loan. " ---The Motley Fool, September 16, 2020
"The special committee hired by Kodak blamed disclosure issues on a junior employee, who was able to modify the media advisory in a way that made it appear as if the information wasn't embargoed. On concerns surrounding the options grants, the special committee said there was no intent to manipulate their timing, and a well-timed gift made by Kodak board member George Karfunkel doesn't appear to have violated federal securities laws." ---Seeking Alpha, September 16, 2020
"The administration wants this deal done as it repatriates the manufacture of key ingredients from China to the US China recently threatened to cut off this vital, life-saving supply chain. The loss of this supply chain is unacceptable. The solution is to repatriate the supply chain. There are not as many manufacturing facilities in the US as there used to be. Finding an under-utilized resource like Kodak with their Eastman Kodak business park for manufacturing is a good fit for this effort to repatriate the supply chain. This deal makes sense."---comments from Bull and Bear Trading
What next after a 2 day rally of 72%?
After an independent investigation cleared Kodak of wrong doing, the SEC and the International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) investigations are still going on. Even if these two investigations also clear Kodak of wrong doing, it is still no guarantee that the $765 million contract will be reinstated. However, the last two days of rally has raised interest of momentum traders ,retail investors and hedge funds alike, KODK price may have more room to go. I think $60 or even $30 is a fantasy to go back to since even with a contract KODK price still fell back to 14.57 in August. While waiting for further news, KODK may trade between $10 to $17.5 base on technical factors. I think it should only be a short term momentum trade while investors are still hot on the stock on hope of the contract will resume. However, it may not worth the risk to hang on as long term investment.
Bullish technicals that may push KODK up:
1. Big move with huge volume, breaking above resistance at $10 should bring in momentum buying and short covering.
2. Top of down gap level at $14.57 should serve as magnet pulling stock up.
3. Almost 29% short and small flow of only 57 million shares should facilitate short squeeze.
4. Bullish Double Bottom pattern should also help.
5. Support levels are $10 then $8. Resistances are $14.57 then $17.5.
伊士曼柯达公司（KODK 10.70 +25.73%）为全球图形艺术，商业印刷，出版，电子显示器，娱乐和商业电影以及消费品市场的客户提供硬件，软件，消耗品和服务。该公司的业务分为六个部分：打印系统，企业喷墨系统，软件和解决方案，消费类和胶片，先进材料和3D打印技术以及伊士曼商业园。
柯达如何在7月下旬获得7.65亿美元的合同，从而在两天内使股票上涨了2717％：
“国际发展金融公司 (IDFC) 将签署一份意向书，向伊士曼柯达公司提供7.65亿美元的贷款。这笔贷款将支持柯达制药公司的启动，并将标志着DFC的第一笔投资，是利用总统的行政命令支持国内对Covid-根据《国防生产法》第19条的规定而实行“国际开发金融公司（International Development Finance Corporation）首席执行官亚当·勃勒（Adam Boehler）在“ Squawk Box”说。” --- CNBC，2020年7月28日
“今年早些时候，特朗普贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）在他办公室的白板上，列出了可以在美国生产药品的公司对象。他将它们分成三栏，每一栏用于代表生产过程。伊士曼·柯达公司（Eastman Kodak Co.）他回忆说，纳瓦罗先生的观感很突出，重叠了三栏中的两栏，柯达可以帮助生产原料，从而开始仿制药生产，并减轻该国对外国供应的依赖。柯达与联邦政府的合约在7月下旬公开之后，投资者和立法者都提出了疑问，其中主要是：为什么选择一家陷入困境的摄影公司柯达？许多答案都指向纳瓦罗（Navarro）先生，他率先提出了这个想法，然后在政府内部游说引导官僚机构以帮助柯达成为合同的首选，包括利用一个不起眼的政府机构来帮助该笔贷款通过初始阶段。”- - -华尔街日报
在宣布7.65亿美元合同后，在2天之内从2.31美元的价格上涨2717％至60美元，但在接下来的7天股价回撤至14.57美元，从其峰值60美元回撤近76％。在出现任何坏消息之前，KODK的大幅回调表明该合约的影响被大肆高估。
导致KODK股票价格从14.57美元跌至5.5美元的新闻：
“ Eastman Kodak Co.股价周一下跌了逾四分之一，此前有消息称，由于该合约已受到国会和监管机构的审查，原定给该公司的7.65亿美元贷款计划被搁置。美国国际开发金融公司（US International Development Finance Corp.）上个月宣布了计划，向柯达借出用于生产药品原料工厂的资金。但该机构在周五晚些时候的一条推文中说：“最近关于不法行为的指控引起了人们的严重关注。除非这些指控被清除，否则我们将不做任何进一步的处理。”可达公司发言人周一表示，它“赞赏并支持”该机构等待澄清的决定，然后再继续该程序。该公司周五表示将启动内部审查。 “ ---《华尔街日报》，2020年8月10日
坏消息使KODK价格从14.57美元在大约一个月的时间跌至5.5美元。
最近两天导致KODK反弹的新闻：
“伊士曼·柯达（KODK）聘请的律师事务所独立调查在宣布收到一笔巨额政府贷款之前授予其高管人员股票选择权的适当性，调查得出的结论是基本上免除了前身为照相机和胶卷公司的任何不适当做法。尽管应该更新改善内部程序，但柯达在宣布贷款的前一天发给其首席执行官和其他人员期权以换取数百万股股份并没有错。” --- The Motley Fool，2020年9月16日
“柯达聘请的特别调查委员会将披露问题归咎于一名初级雇员，该雇员以某种方式修改媒体咨询，使该信息看起来好像不在禁止披露之列。在授予股票选择权方面懂事会并没有意图操纵时间安排，而柯达董事会成员乔治·卡芬克尔（George Karfunkel）精心准备的礼物似乎并未违反联邦证券法。” ---SeekingAlpha，2020年9月16日
“政府希望这笔交易能够完成，因为它把从中国进口的关键原料的生产运回美国。中国最近威胁要切断这一至关重要的，挽救生命的供应链。这条供应链的损失是不可接受的。解决方案是将供应链运回美国。在美国，制造设施已经不像以前那么多了，能够找到像伊士曼柯达商业园一这样未得到充分利用的资源进行制造，就很适合这项将供应链遣返的工作。” ---Bull and Bear Trading 上的评论
经过2天的上涨72％之后走势如何看？
在独立调查清除了柯达的犯错之后，SEC和国际开发金融公司（IDFC）的调查仍在进行中。即使这两个调查也不认为柯达有错，仍然不能保证将恢复7.65亿美元的合同。然而，最近两天的上涨已经引起了动力交易者，零售投资者和对冲基金的兴趣，KODK的价格可能还有更大的上涨空间。我认为到达60美元甚至30美元是一个幻想，因为尽管8月份KODK合同还没有被叫停时股价仍然回落至14.57美元。在等待更多消息时，基于技术因素，KODK可能会在10到17.5美元之间交易。在投资者仍对KODK保持高度兴趣，又对恢复合约有所期盼的现在，我认为是进行短期动力交易的好时机，但长期持有作为投资则不值得冒这个险。
下面的技术特性可能会推高KODK：
1.高交投量大幅上涨突破10美元的阻力位将带来动力购买和空头回补。
2.下行缺口顶部（14.57美元）应能吸引股票上涨。
3.几乎29％的空头，只有5700万股的少量流通应该会促进空头挤压上升。
4.看涨的双底形态也有帮助。
5.支撑水平是10美元，然后是8美元。 阻力位是14.57美元，然后是17.5美元。
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