After rising 84% since March 23,2020, the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ plunged 5.07% today. This is the biggest drop since the 12% drop on March 16, 2020. QQQ trading volume is the heaviest since mid-March. This drop is inevitable as both AAPL and TSLA rose 43% and 83% to extreme frothy valuations after they announced 1 to 4 and 1 to 5 stock split on July 30 and August 11 respectively. (These are on top of their gains of 81% and 290% respectively before split announcements. )These kind of gain is ridiculous since stock split change nothing economically and value wise ( There is no difference for 1 five dollar bill and 5 one dollar bills). The frothiness of both AAPL and TSLA together with the big gains on semiconductor, software, cloud computing and internet retail stocks since March lows make today's profit taking inevitable. There is no bad news in triggering this sell off today, only the frothiness of the tech stock prices.
So what comes next after today's sell off? I think this is the beginning of more sell off is likely as big price drop and heavy volume usually generates further downside momentum. Weakness in Asian and European markets will likely drive US stocks to open lower tomorrow morning. Some kind of bounce due to dip buying may come in after initial dip, but will eventually meet by more selling (especially before the long Labor Day weekend). Tomorrow is a day for Non-farm payroll report. Good Non-farm payroll report may help a little bit but not likely last. If it is another big down day tomorrow, more trouble will come next week as margin call selling will take over.
Since this market sell off is triggered by sell off in tech stocks, it is only reasonable to use QQQ chart as a guide to determine the downside targets. Looking at the QQQ chart, the first level of support is the 20 day moving average at 282. Since this is only 1.7% from today's close, it is not likely to hold. The second level of support is the 50 day moving average at 268, this is 6.6% from today's close. The 268 may be a reasonable level to correct down to since it will make the total correction at 11.6% (a normal correction) from the top. If the 268 level is broken, it will go down to test the 250 level. 250 is the 38% fibonacci retracement of the total move from March low to historical high. It would be a 17.7% correction from the top.
下面三个图源自Finviz.com:
自2020年3月23日以来上涨了84％之后，纳斯达克100 ETF QQQ今天暴跌5.07％。这是自2020年3月16日下跌12％以来的最大跌幅。QQQ的交易量是3月中以来最高的。这种下降是不可避免的，因为AAPL和TSLA分别在7月30日和8月11日宣布分拆1-4股股票和1-5股股票后，它们的股价分别上涨了43％和83％至极端泡沫水平。 （这些涨幅是在拆分公告之前分别已经上涨了81％和290％之后。）这种上升是荒谬的，因为股票拆分在经济和价值方面都没有改变（1张5美元的钞票和5张1美元的钞票没有区别） ）。自3月份的低点以来，AAPL和TSLA的泡沫水平以及半导体，软件，云计算和互联网零售股票的大幅上涨使今天的获利回吐成为必然。今天引发这次抛售没有什么坏消息，只是由高科技股票价格的泡沫水平所导致。
那么，今天的抛售之后会发生什么呢？我认为这是更多抛售的开始，因为大幅度的价格下跌和大交易量通常会产生进一步的下跌动能。亚洲和欧洲市场的疲软可能会推动明天早上美股低开。最初的下跌可能会导致某种形式的逢低买入反弹，但最终会带来更多的抛售（尤其是在漫长的劳动节周末之前）。明天是非农就业报告的一天。好的非农就业报告可能会对市场有所帮助，但不会持续太久。如果明天是又一个大跌天，下周将有更多的麻烦，因为追加保证金的抛售将接着到来。
由于市场的抛售是由科技股的抛售引发的，因此使用QQQ图表作为确定下行目标是合理的。从QQQ图表来看，第一支撑位是20天移动平均线282。由于这仅距离今天收盘价1.7％，因此不太可能守得住。第二个支撑位是50天移动均线268，这是今天收盘价的6.6％之下。 268可能是向下修正的合理水平，因为它将使总的修正量从顶部算起为11.6％（是正常修正）。如果268水平被击穿，它将下去测试250水平。 250是从三月低点至历史高点的总涨幅的38％斐波那契回撤位。这将是从历史高位下跌17.7％。
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