Tech Rally Ends
After 46% rally since March 2020 low, the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ rally ends with the formation of a bearish Dark Cloud Cover reversal pattern. The largest of large 10 tech stocks Fang+Stock ETF FNGU has pulled back 36% from September 2020 top. These 10 stocks include AAPL, AMZN, GOOG,FB, NFLX, TSLA, TWTR,NVDA, BIDU, BABA. More pains ahead.
Goldman Sachs Warns Near Term Set Back For Market
Goldman warns of "Near-Term Setback" for stocks as record bullish Nasdaq sentiment suffers near-record shock. In a stark reminder of the market excesses reached last week, Goldman writes that the Nasdaq had one of the largest 2-day declines in the last 30 years after the SoftBank gamma trade was exposed. Meanwhile, the sheer buying frenzy into this plunge was unprecedented , and was characterized by a significant increase in options positioning into US equity and US Tech in particular, with the put/call ratio in the US reaching a historical low, the single stock skew back to pre-Covid levels and the spot-vol correlation turned into positive territory. "Such stretched option positioning has historically highlighted a negative asymmetry of near-term equity returns", Goldman writes, pointing out that Nasdaq net equity future positioning at the peak was close to historical highs. ---ZeroHedge
Trump's Hostility Towards China Not Good For Market
US President Trump gave a speech last night in which he promised to sharply scale back the US economic relationship with China if re-elected: firms would be punished if they send jobs offshore and rewarded if they bring them back; the US will become a manufacturing giant again; and China will not be allowed to continue to grow its military with indirect help from the US. ---Michael Every of Rabobank
China/India Conflict Intensified
On the China-India border, New Delhi says its troops crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in order to thwart what it says was a looming Chinese incursion, and that warning shots were fired. (Previous casualties were all caused by melee weapons , and guns have absent for decades to reduce tensions.) The Chinese response, from the Global Times, was:“We must warn India seriously: You have crossed the line! Your frontline troops have crossed the line! Your nationalist public opinion has crossed the line! Your policy toward China has crossed the line! You are over-confidently provoking the PLA and Chinese people-this is like doing a handstand on the edge of a cliff!" ---Michael Every of Rabobank
Byron Wien Predicts Marke Set Back
”At best, the economy is a quarter or one third of the way back to normal. Yet, the market is pricing stocks as if we're going to be back to 2019 levels some time next year. That's very unlikely. The earliest we can get back to 2019 is 2022, and I'm not even sure about that. The market also thinks that we are going to have a vaccine by the end of the year. That's a realistic assumption. It's likely that the vaccine will be given to essential workers starting next year. But I don't think that people like me will get it until the end of next year. So a return to normal is a 2022. ---Byron Wien, Black Stone Market Strategist
Crude Oil Slump Drags Down Energy Stocks
Crude oil and energy stocks are sinking after a surprise cut in the price of Saudi Arabian oil undercut a market already in a correction.The US Oil ETF (USO, -6.7%) is down 14% from its late-August highs. It fell through its 100-day simple moving average today, which it had only crossed on August 5. Energy stocks are already well into a bear market from highs in early June, with the SPDR Energy Sector ETF (XLE, -4.2%) down 28% . All of its components are in the red today. ---SeekingAlpha
Tesla Entering Bear Market?
An entire generation of Gen-Z Tesla traders on Robinhood who have only learned how to hammer the "buy" button, is getting their first cold reality check as the EV maker's stock is down over 12% pre-market, one of its biggest drops since the March crash, on the heels of the company snub for inclusion into the S&P 500 after hours on Friday. Tesla bulls, pundits and sell side analysts alike had widely expected the company to be added to the index following four quarters of fake and engineered "profitability." Instead, S&P wound up adding Teradyne, Catalent and... Etsy? There is speculation that Tesla's snub may have something to do with "questions about the automaker's'profitability metrics' and murky full-year forecast," Dan Ives from Wedbush commented on Friday, doing damage control from a $700 price target he had put on Tesla shares just days earlier. Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research speculated on Tuesday morning that Tesla was not included due to cash problems, demand problems and China problems. ---ZeroHedge
TSLA dropped more than 30% from all time high and technically it is in bear market.
科技股升势结束
自2020年3月低点以来上涨了46％之后，科技股比重大的纳斯达克100 ETF QQQ形成了看跌的乌云盖顶反转形态，显示升势结束。 Fang + Stock ETF FNGU是10只大科技股中最大的股票，已从2020年9月的高位回落36％。这10只股票包括AAPL，AMZN，GOOG，FB，NFLX，TSLA，TWTR，NVDA，BIDU，BABA。更多痛苦在前面。
高盛警告股市短期内将倒退
高盛警告称，由于创纪录的看涨纳斯达克市场情绪遭受近创纪录的震荡，股票“近期遭受挫折”。高盛鲜明地提醒人们，上周市场已 达到上升过度，纳斯达克指数因软银（Soft Bank）伽马交易曝光后是过去30年中最大的两日跌幅之一。同时，这种狂跌后的买盘狂潮是史无前例的。其特点是，对美国股票尤其是美国科技股的看涨期权显着增加。看跌期权/看涨期权比率创历史新低，单只股票看跌期权/看涨期权比率回落到Covid之前的水平，并且现货波动指数变成正值。高盛写道：“这种极端的期权比率在历史上对短期股票收益是负面的。”高盛指出，纳斯达克净股票期货头寸在最高点的位置已经接近历史高位。 ---ZeroHedge
特朗普对中国的敌意不利于市场
美国总统特朗普昨晚发表讲话，承诺如果再次当选，将大幅缩减美国与中国的经济关系。美国将再次成为制造业巨人。而且，中国将无法在美国的间接帮助下继续发展其军事力量。 ---荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）的Michael Every
在中印边界上，新德里表示，其部队越过了实际控制线（LAC），以制止它所说的迫在眉睫的中国入侵，并开枪警告。 （以前的人员伤亡都是近战武器造成的，几十年来，为了减轻紧张局势，枪支一直没有出现。）中国《环球时报》的回应是：“我们必须认真警告印度：您已经越界了！您的前线部队越界了！您的民族主义舆论越界了！您对中国的政策越界越了！您过分地挑衅了中国人民解放军和中国人民，这就像在悬崖边缘倒立！” ---荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）的Michael Every
拜伦·维恩（Byron Wien）预测市场倒退
“充其量，经济是恢复正常水平的四分之一或三分之一。然而，市场正在对股票进行定价，好像我们明年某个时候会回到2019年的水平一样。那是极不可能的。我们最早可以回到2019年的时间是2022年，对此我甚至不确定。市场还认为，我们将在今年年底之前获得疫苗。这是一个现实的假设。从明年开始，很可能会将疫苗接种给必要的工人。但是我不认为像我这样的人会在明年年底之前得到它。因此，到2022年才能恢复正常。---黑石市场策略师拜伦·维恩（Byron Wien）
原油暴跌拖累能源股
沙特阿拉伯原油价格意外下调后，原油和能源类股开始下挫，市场早已处于盘整状态。美国石油ETF（USO，-6.7％）较8月底的高点下跌了14％。今天它跌破了直到8月5日才越过的100天简单移动平均线。能源股已经从6月初的高点完全进入熊市，SPDR Energy Sector ETF（XLE，-4.2％）下跌了28％。它的所有成分股今天都是一片红色。 ---SeekingAlpha
特斯拉进入熊市？
电动汽车制造商Tesla（TSLA）的股价下跌了12％以上，这是其最大跌幅之一，在Robinhood上只学会了如何按“买入”按钮的一代Gen-Z特斯拉交易员，正在接受他们的第一笔现实测验。自三月份的股市崩盘以来，特斯拉的多头，专家和卖方分析师都普遍预计，该公司将在四个季度的虚假和精心设计的“盈利能力”之后在周五收市后就被纳入标准普尔500指数。相反，标准普尔最终加入了泰瑞达（Teradyne），凯泰伦特（Catalent）和... Etsy。来自Wedbush的Dan Ives上周五发表评论，从几天前他给特斯拉股票设定的700美元的价格目标进行损害控制及辩护。来自外界的猜测是，对特斯拉的冷淡可能与“对汽车制造商的盈利能力指标的问题和对全年业绩预测的怀疑”有关。几天前的股票。 GLJ Research的Gordon Johnson推测，由于现金问题，需求问题和中国问题，特斯拉未能包括在标普500之内。 ---ZeroHedge
TSLA从历史最高点下跌了30％以上，技术上已进入熊市。
No comments:
Post a Comment