After making all time high at $64895 on April 14 on the hype of crypto currency exchange Coinbase (COIN) IPO, Bitcoin has been on a downtrend since. The lowest it dropped down to is $51541 on April 17 before it bounced. However it is still below its crucial 50 DMA resistance at around $56000. It has not been solidly below its 50 DMA since September 2020. If it cannot recover above $ 56000 in the near term, it could go down to test recent low at $51541 again and open the door to $42000 next support. Meanwhile the influential COIN has dropped 24% from its high of $429.54 since IPO and its valuation is still too high. Two technicals for Bitcoin I am worrying about are:
1. Since the $30000 level in January, BTC has pushed up 3 times to $64850 then started to come down. This is a bearish 3 Drives To Top pattern.
2. On the way of making higher highs, the Relative Strength Index is making lower lows. Its strength is weakening.
Although Bitcoin related stocks have been having serious corrections, investors need to be patient before getting back to them since many of them are still up quite a bit in the last half year: MARA +1393%, RIOT +1152%, CAN +625%, MOGO +496%, MSTR+296%,BTBT +215%, PYPL +32%, SQ +31%, FTCV -12% and EBON -53%. During the same period Bitcoin has risen around 315%. Buying the laggers may be less risky when time is ripe to buy again.
在4月14日因加密货币交易所Coinbase（COIN）IPO的炒作而创下历史新高64895美元之后，比特币自此一直处于下跌趋势中。它在反弹之前于4月17日曾跌至低价51541美元。然而，它仍然低于关键的50 DMA阻力位56000美元左右。自2020年9月以来，它一直没有跌破50日均线。如果它不能在短期内回升至56000美元以上，它可能会下跌并再次测试近期低点51541美元，并为下一个支撑位42000美元打开大门。与此同时，颇具影响力的COIN较IPO时的高点429.54美元已下跌了24％，但估值仍然非常高。我担心的比特币的两个技术情况是：
1.自一月份的30000美元水平以来，BTC被推涨3次至64850美元，然后开始下跌。这是看跌的3 波上升见顶模式。
2.在创造更高的高点的过程中，相对强度指数正在创造更低的低点。它的上升力度正在减弱。
尽管与比特币相关的股票也在进行大幅修正，但投资者仍需耐心等待入市时刻，因为半年来许多比特币相关股票仍上涨很多：MARA + 1393％，RIOT + 1152％，CAN + 625％ ，MOGO + 496％，MSTR + 296％，BTBT + 215％，PYPL + 32％，SQ + 31％，FTCV -12％和EBON -53％。在同一半年期间，比特币上涨了约315％。当再次有买入时机时，购买上面上升较堕后的股票的风险或会较小。
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