Major market indexes opened higher but has reversed to the downside now. Too much and too fast a bounce from March low is a problem for the market. Technically, the S&P 500 is facing resistance 4600. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite are facing resistances at 100 and 200 DMAs and failed to break out. Mega tech stocks have recovered back to their previous high valuation levels and are not likely sustainable. Fundamentally, the market is facing headwinds from inverting treasury yield curve and the implied coming of recession, high inflation, pending interest rate hike and Fed balance sheet reduction and negative impacts to global economy from the Russia/Ukraine war.
The recent market bounce is likely finished and is to go back down. Giving time, the US stock market may eventually break below March 2022 lows. Near term supports and resistances for major indexes are as follows:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Support:34362, Resistance: 35010
S&P 500 : Support: 4489, Resistance: 4600
Nasdaq Composite: Support: 13779, Resistance:14572
Recent news:
1. Federal Reserve's governor Lael Brainard who normally favors loose policy and low rate sees balance sheet reduction soon and at a rapid pace. Brainard also is Biden's nominee to be the new Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve.
2. The European Commission is to propose to EU Nations sweeping new sanctions, including a ban on imports of coal and other products from Russia worth up to 9 Billion Euros ($9.86 Billions) a year.
3. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appearance before the United Nations Security Council follows Ukrainian claims that at least 300 civilians were tortured and killed in Bucha by Russian troops. Zelenskyy called for a Nuremberg-style tribunal to investigate and prosecute Russian war crimes.
4. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley's top strategist Michael Wilson believes the bear market rally is over and the market are likely to continue trading lower.
5. Deutche Bank is projecting a recession within the next 2 years.
主要市场指数高开，但现在已经逆转下行。从 3 月低点反弹太多太快对市场来说是个问题。技术上，标普 500 正面临 4600 阻力位。道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数均面临 100 和 200 日均线阻力而未能突破。大型科技股已经恢复到之前的高估值水平，升势不太可能可持续。从基本面上说，市场正面临美国国债收益率曲线倒挂和隐含的经济衰退、高通胀、即将加息和美联储缩表以及俄罗斯/乌克兰战争对全球经济的负面影响等不利因素。
最近的市场反弹可能已经结束，并且将回落。如果给予时间，美国股市最终可能会跌破 2022 年 3 月的低点。主要指数近期支撑位和阻力位如下：
道琼斯工业平均指数：支撑：34362，阻力：35010
标准普尔 500 指数：支撑：4489，阻力：4600
纳斯达克综合指数：支撑：13779，阻力：14572
最近的新闻：
1. 通常支持宽松政策和低利率的美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）说很快就会看到资产负债表缩减而且速度会很快。布雷纳德也是拜登提名的美联储新副主席。
2. 欧盟委员会将向欧盟国家提出全面的新制裁措施，包括禁止每年从俄罗斯进口价值高达 90 亿欧元（98.6 亿美元）的煤炭和其他产品。
3. 乌克兰总统泽连斯基出席联合国安理会会议声称至少有 300 名平民在布哈遭到俄罗斯军队的酷刑和杀害。泽连斯基呼吁建立一个纽伦堡式的法庭来调查和起诉俄罗斯的战争罪行。
4. 昨天，摩根士丹利首席策略师迈克尔威尔逊认为熊市反弹已经结束，市场可能会继续走低。
5.德意志银行预计未来 2 年内将出现经济衰退。
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