Apple (AAPL) is to report earnings after market close today, its result has the power to make or break the market and I think market reaction is likely to be negative. Followings are some reasons why:
1. Among mega cap tech stocks AAPL drop the least this year. AAPL is down only about 12% year today compares with FB -48%, NVDA -37%, GOOG -20%, AMZN -17%, TSLA -17% and MSFT -16%. AAPL needs to catch up on the downside.
2. AAPL's valuation is very high with trailing PE at 26, forward PE at 23 and next year EPS growth is projected to be only 6.57%. PEG at 2.53% implies stock price is 153% higher than normal.
3. Fundamentally, high inflation, Fed to aggressively hiking rate, continuing Russia/Ukraine war and Covid spread in China and Q1 GDP estimate came in at -1.4% much lower than +1.1% consensus points to contraction in the economy all are bad news for the stock market and AAPL.
4. According to Seeking Alpha's quant ratings, AAPL valuation is F and growth is D-.
5. Technically, AAPL is now below its 20, 50 and 100 moving averages, both short and intermediate term trends are down. It is now trying to hang above its 200 day moving average at 159. Breaking below this level will start a trip to 150 quickly.
I have positions on AAPL puts, SQQQ, UVXY and SDOW calls.
苹果（AAPL）今天收市后将公布财报，其结果具有决定市场成败的力量，我认为市场反应很可能是负面的。以下是一些原因：：
1. 大型科技股中，苹果今年跌幅最小。AAPL 今年仅下跌约 12% 相比于 FB -48%、NVDA -37%、GOOG -20%、AMZN -17%、TSLA -17% 和 MSFT -16%。 AAPL 需要追跌。
2. AAPL 的估值非常高，市盈率为 26，前瞻市盈率为 23，预计明年 EPS 增长率仅为 6.57%。 2.53的 PEG 意味着股价比正常水平高出 153%。
3. 从基本面上说，高通胀、美联储将大幅加息、持续的俄罗斯/乌克兰战争和新冠病毒在中国的蔓延以及今天报出的第一季度 GDP 预期为 -1.4%，远低于普遍认为的+1.1%，经济正在收缩中 ，这些都是对股票市场和AAPL的坏消息。
4. 根据Seeking Alpha的量化分析评分，苹果估值为F，增长为D-。
5. 从技术上看，AAPL 现在低于其 20、50 和 100 移动平均线，短期和中期趋势看跌。它现在正试图在其 200 日移动平均线 159 上方守住。一旦跌破该水平将开始快速跌至 150。
我持有 AAPL 看跌期权、SQQQ、UVXY 和 SDOW 看涨期权头寸。
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