Nasdaq Reenters Bear Market, Target 11000 纳斯达克重新进入熊市, 下跌目标11000

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the worst April since 1970 down 8.8% and 4.9%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite’s 13.2% drop was the most since April of 2000. For year today the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite index are down 9.19%, 13.3% and 21.15% respectively while from all time high they are down10.8%, 14.3% and 23.9% respectively .

The Federal Reserve will decide its monetary policy on Wednesday. investors expect the central bank  to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, representing the first hike of more than 25 basis points since 2000. Investors also expect the Fed to formally announce plans to start rolling assets off the central bank's balance sheet, beginning the process of quantitative tightening and in its statement after the meeting, more hawkishness is likely.

In China, as Shanghai is still in lock down mode, CNN reported Beijing has banned all restaurant dining, shut down Universal Studios and ordered residents to provide proof of a negative Covid test to enter public venues in a major escalation of restrictions as a five-day holiday gets underway.

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is getting bloodier and no end is in sight. The war is now transitioning into a long, bitter struggle, which will likely cost thousands more lives and tens of billions of dollars. The war has dragged US and NATO into never before seen power confrontation with Russia. 

The situations in China and Ukraine have brought about worldwide supply chain problem and much higher inflation. The Q1 US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) came in at 7% and US Q1 GDP dropped sharply from last year Q4's +6.9% to -1.1%. Global economic recession may come much earlier than most people think.  

Earnings among big tech stocks came in mixed as MSFT, FB, TSLA , AAPL  and INTC reported better earnings while AMZN, GOOG reported worse. However, the catch is most of them guided future earnings lower citing supply chain headwinds. The problem most people ignore is valuations on these stocks are still too high and they need to come down further. This is evident by last Friday's sharp sell off after the above corporate earnings. Now that most influential earnings are out, there's nothing to help  cushion the market's downturn.

Technically, both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are now closed  below their March and February closing lows, and the Dow Jones Industrial is in the verge of breaking its February low. the market momentum is down, more market downturn is likely. The Nasdaq Composite is down 23.9% from its all time high, it has officially re-entered bear market territory. In the past, average bear market dropped 36% and lasted 9 months, with the present difficult situations in the market, it is only likely that the market will do the same this time. Since tech stocks are leading the market down, I am using the Nasdaq Composite Index to estimate its possible downside target. By using the Measured Move (or Continuation Down Pattern) method I am projecting the next downside target for the Nasdaq is around 11000 and it would represent about 32% dropped from all time high. Stock market's strategy is sell on rallies.

标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯工业平均指数录得自 1970 年以来最糟糕的 4 月份，分别下跌 8.8% 和 4.9%。纳斯达克综合指数的跌幅为 13.2%，是 2000 年 4 月以来的最大跌幅。道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数今年以来分别下跌 9.19%、13.3% 和 21.15%，而从历史高位则分别下跌 10.8% , 14.3% 和 23.9% 。

美联储将于周三决定其货币政策。投资者预计央行将加息 50 个基点，这是自 2000 年以来首次加息超过 25 个基点。投资者还预计美联储将正式宣布开始将资产从央行资产负债表缩减的计划，开始量化紧缩进程，及其会后声明中可能会更加鹰派。

在中国，上海仍处于封锁状态，美国有线电视新闻网报道称，北京已禁止所有餐厅用餐，关闭环球影城，并命令居民提供新冠病毒检测呈阴性的证据才能进入公共场所，这是五天假期开始前限制措施的重大升级。

与此同时，乌克兰的战争愈演愈烈而看不到尽头。战争现在正在转变为一场漫长而艰苦的斗争，这可能会造成成千上万人的生命和数以百亿美元计的损失。这场战争将美国和北约拖入了对俄国前所未有的权力对抗。

中国和乌克兰的局势带来了全球供应链问题和更高的通货膨胀。美国第一季度个人消费支出 (PCE) 为 7%是非常高的通胀率。美国第一季度 GDP 从去年第四季度的 +6.9% 急剧下降至 -1.1%。全球经济衰退可能比大多数人想象的来的要早得多。

大型科技股的财报参差不齐， MSFT、FB、TSLA、AAPL 和 INTC 的收益比预期好，而 AMZN、GOOG 的收益则比预期差。然而，问题是他们中的大多数都以供应链的逆风为由引导未来的收益会走低。另外，大多数人忽略的问题是这些股票的估值仍然太高而需要进一步下跌。上周五在上述公司收益之后的大幅抛售中就可以看出这一点。既然最有影响力的收益已经公布，没有什么可以帮助缓冲市场的低迷了。

从技术上讲，纳斯达克综合指数和标准普尔 500 指数目前均收于 3 月和 2 月收盘低点下方，道琼斯工业指数也即将跌穿2月低点。市场动力为下降，市场可能会出现更多的低迷。纳斯达克综合指数较历史高点下跌 23.9%，正式重新进入熊市区域。过去，熊市平均下跌36%，历时9个月，以目前市场的困难局面来看，市场这次很可能也会如此。由于科技股引领市场下跌，我使用纳斯达克综合指数来估计其可能的下行目标。通过使用测量移动（或持续下行模式）方法，我预计纳斯达克的下一个下行目标是 11000 点左右，这将代表从历史高点下跌约 32%。美股策略是逢高卖出。