The Federal Reserve raised interest rate by 50 basis points (the biggest rate increase in 20 years) and also initiated quantitative tightening. Investors were confused initially by moving the market up and down after the news. When Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell was asked whether the Fed had considered a 75 basis point interest rate hike and the answer was no, investors went crazy and drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average up over 900 points as they interpreted the answer as dovish. After investors had time to think things over overnight, they came in today and sold the market off hard from open to close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down over 1063 points (-3.12%) totally erased yesterday gain plus more. The Nasdaq came down the most , down 647 points (-4.99%), while the S&P lost 153 points(-3.56%). After all, investors realized the accelerate rate hike cycle has only just the beginning and this will slow economic growth and will adversely impacting corporate profits. The treasury bonds were also sold off driving treasury yields to their recent highs, showing the worry over more rate hike to come. Adding to worry over higher interest rate, inflation, Russia/Ukraine war, Chinese city lockdowns on Convid, supply chain restrains and high tech stock valuations are also in investors minds.
Momentum points to more market drop likely. How far down can the market go? The Nasdaq Composite's weekly chart I presented a few days ago is still applicable. Based on Measured Move calculation, the Nasdaq may go down to 11000 level which represent about 32% drop from all time high. David Larew's Think Tank Chart illustrated the S&P 500 's fair value levels based on EPs are also great references.
昨日美联储加息 50 个基点（20 年来最大的加息幅度），同时也启动了量化紧缩。消息传出后，投资者最初感到困惑导致美股上下波动不定。当美联储主席杰伊鲍威尔被问及美联储是否考虑过加息 75 个基点而答案是否定的时侯，投资者发疯了，将道琼斯工业平均指数推高了 900 多点，因为他们将答案解读为鸽派。在投资者经过一夜的考虑后，他们今天从开盘到收盘都在大力抛售股票。道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌1063 点（-3.12%），完全抹去了昨天的涨幅。纳斯达克指数跌幅最大，下跌 647 点（-4.99%），而标准普尔指数则下跌 153 点（-3.56%）。毕竟，投资者意识到加速加息周期才刚刚开始，这将减缓经济增长，并对企业利润产生不利影响。今天国债也被抛售，将国债收益率推至近期高位，显示了投资人对未来进一步加息的担忧。投资者除了担心更高的利率外、还担心通货膨胀、俄罗斯/乌克兰战争、中国城市因为 Convid 而被封锁、供应链的限制和高科技股票估值过高等。
动力显示市场可能会有更多的下跌。美股还能跌多小？我几天前展示的纳斯达克综合指数周线图仍然适用。利用移动测量法（Measured Move） 计算，纳斯达克指数可能会跌至 11000 点，从历史高点下跌约 32%。下面 David Larew 的智库图表说明了标准普尔 500 指数以市盈率来衡量的公允价值水平也是很好的参考。
David Larew's Think Tank Chart illustrated the S&P 500 's fair value levels:
David Larew 的智库图表说明了标准普尔 500 指数的公允价值水平：
Following charts are sourced from Finviz.com:
以下图表源自 Finviz.com：
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