Major U.S. stock indexes were mixed on last Friday‘s trading . The Dow rose, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 all fell. Big tech stocks such as TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL and QCOM weighed heavily on the Nasdaq.
High inflation, sharp rise in interest rates likely, the continuing Russia-Ukraine war and the lock down of Shanghai in China due to the spread of the Covid virus are all negatively impacting the global economy. U.S. short-term Treasury bond rates higher than long-term rates point to a greater chance of the economy entering a recession. There are various signs indicating that the US economy is in an advanced stage. Overvalued stocks don't match earnings, especially among tech growth stocks. U.S. stocks continuing trending down is very likely.
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were turned back at their 100 and 200-day moving average resistances. The Nasdaq Composite has dropped below its 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, its trend is bearish. The Nasdaq is the weakest index and has a good chance of testing its March low of 12555. The Nasdaq Composite fell 22% from its all-time high in March and entered a bear market. Historical data shows that the average bear market decline is 36% from the peak, and the average duration is 9 months. For Nasdaq to fall 36% from all time high, the price level would be 10376. Weakness in Nasdaq Composite will likely pull the other indexes down with it.
Weekend News：
1. Ukraine’s economic output will likely contract by a staggering 45.1% this year as Russia’s invasion has shuttered businesses, slashed exports and destroyed productive capacity, the World Bank said on Sunday in a new assessment of the war’s economic impacts. The World Bank also forecast Russia's 2022 GDP output to fall 11.2% due to punishing financial sanctions imposed by the United States and its Western allies on Russia's banks, state-owned enterprises and other institutions.The World Bank's Eastern Europe region, comprising Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, is forecast to show a GDP contraction of 30.7% this year, due to shocks from the war and disruption of trade.
2. According to recent online postings, the municipal government issued a notice saying the lockdown will continue until at least May 1. As for what will happen after May 1, the notice said, it will be decided on May 1 whether to open up or continue the lockdown. Many neighborhoods in Shanghai are in a chaotic state. Some people can't get treatment. There is a serious lack of food. Some elderlies died in senior facilities without family members around. Babies are separated from their parents because their COVID-19 test results are different. ---Zero Hedge 04/10/2022
3. CPI is to be reported Wednesday. Consensus economists anticipate headline CPI will again accelerate to show an 8.4% year-over-year increase, surging higher from February's 7.9% rise, according to Bloomberg consensus data. The figure would mark another decades-high rate of inflation, with the index, even excluding volatile food and energy prices, set to climb as much as 6.6%, up from February's 6.4% increase. ---Yahoo 04/10/2022
4. Conversations detailed in the March 15-16 Fed minutes indicated the bank will soon begin to unwind its $9 trillion balance sheet and signaled members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “would have preferred a 50 basis point increase” in benchmark interest rates last month when the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2018. The minutes also echo recent public remarks from Fed leaders, including commentary on Thursday from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who said he wanted the central bank to get to between 3% and 3.25% on the Fed funds rate in the second half of this year, implying more aggressive, front-loaded interest rate hikes in the near-term. Fed Governor Lael Brainard also said last week that the FOMC was "prepared to take stronger action, " should inflation readings remain elevated and warrant such moves. ---Yahoo 04/10/2022
5. China’s PPI, a measure of industrial profitability, soared 8.3% in March from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed today. The CPI, a key gauge of inflation, rose 1.5%. Both PPI and CPI are higher than expected. The Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.75% and 2.43% respectively in early trade.
6. Oil was lower in early Asian trading due to the possibility China's COVID-19 lockdowns will crimp demand. June WTI crude oil futures are 1.3% lower at $97 per barrel, while June Brent crude oil futures were 1.2% lower at $101.53, per barrel. For several weeks, the benchmarks have been at their most volatile since June 2020. The market has been watching developments in China, where authorities have kept Shanghai, a city of 26 million people, locked down under its "zero tolerance" for COVID-19. China is the world's biggest oil importer. --- Fox Business 04/10.2022
上周五美股各大指数涨跌不一。道指上升，标普500，纳斯达克综合指数及罗素2000均下跌。TSLA，NVDA，AMZN，GOOG，MSFT, AAPL及QCOM等科技大股当天买压沉重拖累纳指。
物价高涨，利率将急剧上升，俄乌战争未了及中国上海因Covid病毒传播而封城均负面影响全球经济。美国短期国债利率高于长期利率指向经济进入不景气的机会大。种种迹象显示美国经济正处于晚期阶段。股票估值过高与盈利不匹配，尤其是科技成长股。美股继续走跌探底的机会大。
道琼斯工业平均指数及标普500指数均被阻于100及200日均线。纳斯达克综合指数已失守20,50,100及200日均线，趋势看跌。纳指是最弱的一个指数而将下探三月低位12555的机会大。纳斯达克综合指数今年三月份时从历史高位曾经下跌了22%而进入熊市。历史数据显示，熊市平均跌幅为从高位下跌36%，平均时长为9个月。如果纳指下跌36%，价位水平将是10376。纳斯达克综合指数的弱势也将会拉低其它指数。
周末新闻：
1. 世界银行周日在对战争经济影响的新评估中表示，由于俄罗斯的入侵导致企业关闭、出口锐减和生产能力遭到破坏，乌克兰今年的经济产出可能会收缩 45.1%。世界银行还预测，由于美国及其西方盟国对俄罗斯银行、国有企业和其他机构实施金融制裁，俄罗斯 2022 年 GDP 产出将下降 11.2%。 世界银行预计东欧地区，包括乌克兰、白俄罗斯及摩尔多瓦等由于战争和贸易中断的冲击，今年的国内生产总值将收缩 30.7%。
2、根据近日网上发布的消息，上海市政府发布通知称，封城将至少持续到5月1日。至于5月1日之后的情况，通知说，5月1日再决定是否开放或或继续封锁。上海的许多街区都处于混乱状态。有些人无法得到治疗。食物严重不足。一些老人在没有家人陪伴的老年设施中死亡。婴儿与父母分开，因为他们的 COVID-19 测试结果不同。 --- ZeroHedge 04/10/2022
3. CPI 将于周三公布。根据彭博共识数据，经济学家共识预计整体 CPI 将再次加速，同比增长 8.4%，高于 2 月份的 7.9%。这一数字将标志着另一个十年来的高通胀率，即使不包括波动的食品和能源价格，该指数也将攀升至 6.6%，高于 2 月份的 6.4%。 ---雅虎 04/10/2022
4. 美联储 3 月 15 日至 16 日会议纪要中详述的对话表明，该银行将很快开始缩减其 9 万亿美元的资产负债表，并暗示联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 成员上个月“希望将基准利率提高 50 个基点”,上个月是美联储自 2018 年以来首次加息。会议纪要也呼应了美联储领导人最近的公开言论，包括圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁詹姆斯布拉德上周四发表的评论，他表示希望央行今年下半年将联邦基金利率提高到 3 % 到3.25%之间，这意味着近期加息将更加激进而提前。美联储理事莱尔布雷纳德上周也表示，如果通胀数据保持在高位，联邦公开市场委员会“准备采取更强有力的行动”。 ---雅虎 04/10/2022
5. 中国国家统计局今天公布的数据显示，衡量工业盈利能力的中国 3 月份 PPI 同比飙升 8.3%。 衡量通胀的关键指标 CPI 上涨 1.5%。PPI及CPI 均高于预期。上证指数及香港恒生指数早盘分别下跌1.75%及2.43%。
6. 由于中国的 COVID-19 封锁可能会抑制需求，油价在亚洲早盘交易中走低。 6 月 WTI 原油期货下跌 1.3% 至每桶 97 美元，而 6 月布伦特原油期货下跌 1.2% 至每桶 101.53 美元。 几周以来，这些基准一直处于自 2020 年 6 月以来最不稳定的状态。市场一直在关注中国的事态发展，中国当局已将拥有 2600 万人口的上海封锁在对 COVID-19 的“零容忍”之下 . 中国是世界上最大的石油进口国。 --- Fox Business 04/10/2022
7.俄罗斯总统泽连斯基表示，乌克兰“准备好”应对俄罗斯在该国东部发动的大规模进攻，因为他指责莫斯科撒谎以转移对战争的指责。 “他们摧毁了数百万人的生命，”他说。 由于上周俄罗斯导弹袭击一个挤满了撤离人员的火车站，造成死亡人数上升，因此周日商定了九条疏散走廊。 乌克兰外交部长表示，在布查镇和火车站发生暴行之后，甚至考虑与俄罗斯进行谈判都将是“极其困难的”。 据美国和欧洲官员称，在军队未能占领基辅后，俄罗斯任命了一名新将军来指挥战争。--- CNN 04/10/2022
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