Short Term Market Bounce Likely 市场短期反弹的机会大

Chinese threaten ban on rare earth export which deepens trade war; Government bond yields across the world are tumbling in worry of global economic slow down and German unemployment unexpectedly surged for the first time in almost two years as the economic slowdown finally started to take a toll on its labor market were bad news this morning that caused big drops among major US stock market indexes. At the day's low, Dow dropped 410 points, S&P 500 36 points and Nasdaq Composite 134 points. By the close the indexes cut their losses in half and are down only 221 points, 36 points and 60 points for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite respectively.

The importance of today's action are that the Dow is above its 38% retracement level (retracement of big up move from December 24 low to April 23 high) support at 24797 even though it is below 200 day moving average 26430. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have recovered above their 200 day moving averages at 2776 and 7527. These levels are now become stronger supports. The next level of supports for both of them are their 38% retracement levels at 2722 and 7424 respectively.

Since major market indexes are able to hold above their major supports and a bounce from these levels are reasonable. Oversold semiconductor (SMH) and energy (OIH) sectors have started to bounce and they both closed positive today should help. Fear gauge $VIX was calm even when the Dow dropped over 400 points this morning indicates investors still willing to buy stocks. And one observation is that, every time the Dow dropped more than 400 points, buying always came in，this  happened twice recently. My speculation is that, since interest rate is at historical low and there are no better investing vehicles returns better than stocks, investors have no choice but to stay in stock.

All said, US stock market is still in a down trend but a short term bounce looks imminent. Upside targets for Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are 25430, 2860 and 7850 respectively.

中国威胁禁止稀土出口，加剧贸易战;由于担忧全球经济放缓，全球政府债券收益率都在下滑及经济放缓开始对德国劳动力市场造成影响，德国失业率近两年来首次出人意料地飙升，这些都是今天上午造成美国主要股市指数大幅下跌的坏消息。道琼斯指数曾一度下跌410点，标准普尔500指数下跌36点及纳斯达克综合指数下跌134点。收盘时，指数收复了早上跌幅的一半，道指，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌221点，36点和60点。

今日的重要性在于道琼斯指数高于其38％的回撤水平（从12月24日的低点回升至4月23日的高位的回撤）支撑价位24797，尽管它低于200日均线26430。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均收于200日移动平均线上方，分别收于2776点和7527点。这些水平现已成为更强劲的支撑位。这两个指数的下一个支撑位是他们的38％回撤水平，分别为2722和7424。

由于主要市场指数能够保持在它们主要支撑位之上，所以从这些水平反弹是合理的。超卖的半导体（SMH）和能源（OIH）板块已开始了反弹，今天两者均收涨会对市场所帮助。尽管道指今早跌幅超过400点但恐慌指数VIX却表现平静，表明投资者并不恐慌并仍愿意入市。近期的观察显示，每当道琼斯指数下跌超过400点时，买盘总会进来，最近已发生了两次。我的猜测是，由于利率处于历史低位且没有比股票回报更好的投资渠道，投资者别无选择而只能留在股票市场。

美国股市整体仍处于下跌趋势，但短期反弹似乎迫在眉睫。道琼斯指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数的反弹目标分别为25430,2860和7850。