Trust The Chart When In Doubt 在疑惑时相信图表

On Monday, United States announced it will raise tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports on Friday. In response to the potential additional tariffs, China’s commerce ministry said it would have to take necessary retaliatory measures. Today, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told a group of reporters  that the White House had reason to believe the Chinese trade delegation intended to make a deal.  Meanwhile, an editor from the Global Times, seen as a mouthpiece for the Communist Party, responded to Trump's claim that China wants a deal by insisting that the exact opposite is true. China is "fully prepared for an escalated trade war" he said, and added that Beijing is betting on the fact that its political system will ultimately give China more leverage over Trump (the opposite of the market consensus). This kind of news Ping-Pong tells me that nobody knows what will be the result of the trade talk.

This morning most analysts interviewed by financial media are saying that trade deal will be done but may not be this Friday. Many analysts have recommending buy the dip. However, after dropping big yesterday, US stock indexes are jumping up and down in narrow ranges today.  The Dow is up 89 points at 10:43 AM Pacific Time. The less than 20% recovery of yesterday's 473 point drop is weak performance. Market trend is still down. When the news are confusing and whether there will be a trade deal is unknown, I will trust price chart. The Dow chart formed a  bearish Tripple Tops pattern, and the tops will be hard to top even with good news. Since the market had been going up discounting trade deal is a done deal before Trump's tariff tweets, the market may need to unwind more of the price gains since December 24, 2018 any way even with good trade news.

周一，美国宣布将于周五将价值2000亿美元的中国进口商品的关税从10％上调至25％。针对潜在的额外关税，中国商务部表示将采取必要的报复措施。今天，白宫新闻秘书莎拉桑德斯告诉一组记者，白宫有理由相信中国贸易代表团打算达成协议。与此同时，环球时报的一名编辑，被视为共产党的喉舌，回应了特朗普声称中国希望达成协议的说法刚好与中国立场相反。他说，中国“为升级的贸易战已做好了充分的准备”，并补充说，北京认为其政治制度最终会给予中国更多的胜算。（与市场共识相反）。这样的反复新闻告诉我，没有人知道贸易谈判结果会怎样。

今天上午，大多数接受财经媒体采访的分析师表示，贸易谈判将会达成协议但可能不会本周五完成。许多分析师建议趁低买入。然而，在昨天大幅下跌之后，美国股指今天只在窄幅波动。道指在太平洋时间上午10:43上涨了89点，只是昨日473点跌幅回升不到20％，表现疲弱。市场走势仍是下跌。当新闻令人困惑，未知会否达成贸易协议时，我会相信价格图表。道琼斯指数已形成了一个看跌的三重顶图形，即使有好消息，顶部水平也很难超越。在特朗普发出关税推文之前，市场一直在反映着贸易谈判将达成协议的好消息而上涨。即使有贸​​易谈判的利好新闻，相信市场仍需要回吐多些在2018年12月24日以来的大涨幅。