Market Comments Before Close 收市前市场评论

US stock market opened down, bounced and is now trending down again. S&P 500 are trading below its 50 day moving average at 2873. Its trend is down. Now that FOMC Minutes confirm hawkish "transitory" inflation outlook and remains "patient for some time", the market may accelerate to the downside. Qualcom(QCOM) lost a law anti-competition lawsuit and stock drops over nearly 12% , Apple (AAPL) price target lowered by Goldman Sachs to 178 and oil sector dropping over 4% all are drags for the market. Separately, US is considering cutting off the flow of American technology to as many as five Chinese companies including Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the world's largest supplier of video surveillance products adding tension on the trade front does not help also. What is strange is that volatility index ETF VXX is not showing fear (we don't know what the institutions are conspiring ). However，the weakness in VXX is also indicative of complacency, and this is negative for the market.  There are all kind of reasons for the market to come down and I think the main reason is the market has not discounted the impact of trade war. The market trend is down as long as the S&P 500 does not recover above its 50 day moving average 2873.

美国股市开盘下跌，反弹, 现在再次下跌。标准普尔500指数低于其50日均线2873点, 趋势下跌。刚发布的 联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要确认鹰派的“短暂”通胀前景并且仍然会“耐心一段时间”，市场可能会加速下行。美国高通公司（QCOM）反竞争诉讼败诉，股价下跌近12％，高盛（Goldman Sachs）将苹果公司（AAPL）的价格目标下调至178及石油股下跌超过4％都是市场的拖累。另外，美国正在考虑切断美国技术流向多达五家中国公司，包括杭州海康威视数字技术公司，这是全球最大的视频监控产品供应商，也增加了贸易方面的紧张局势。奇怪的是波动指数ETF VXX没有表现出恐惧（我们不知道机构有甚么阴谋）。不过另一种看法是 VXX的弱势显示过分乐观，这对市场不利。市场现在有各种下跌的原因，我想主要原因是市场还没有反映贸易战的负面影响。只要标准普尔500指数没有突破50日均线2873，市场走势就会下跌。