Facing Weak Fundamentals,S&P 500 Quadruple Top? 面对基本面的弱势，标普500 4重顶？

。The United States and China will resume trade talks next week in Washington with time running short to ease their bruising trade war, but U.S. President Donald Trump repeated on Friday that he may extend a March 1 deadline for a deal and keep tariffs on Chinese goods from rising.  Both the United States and China reported progress in five days of negotiations in Beijing this week.
---Reuters

。While valuation makes a poor tool for market timing, there’s evidence its force becomes felt when the benchmark starts to approach 2,800. It’s 25 points from that level now, after vaulting 18 percent since Christmas. More ominously for bulls is the sudden squishiness of 2019 profit estimates. It’s tough to fashion a case for more gains when the foundation keeps sagging. An 8,000-point round trip in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has taken place since September with nary a ripple in readings on growth. At some point fundamentals will reassert themselves. Some say the time has arrived. ---Bloomberg

Followings are some fundamental bad news :

。With nearly 80 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported, fourth-quarter earnings season is largely in the rearview mirror. Analysts now see a profit increase of 16.2 percent for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data. Going forward, however, the outlook continues to worsen. First quarter earnings are currently seen falling by 0.5 percent, the first year-on-year decline since mid-2016. That’s a big markdown from October forecasts of 8.2 percent and would be the first earnings contraction in three years. ---New York Times

。Japanese, U.S. and euro zone “flash” PMI data were released on Thursday. They made for pretty gloomy reading last month — euro zone PMIs for instance, were barely above the 50-mark which separates contraction from expansion, pointing to Q1 growth of just 0.1 percent. In Asia, China’s factory activity shrank the most in almost three years, while Japanese factories were on the cusp of contraction. ---Reuters

。Q4 GDP is to be released on Thursday Feb28. Here are the estimates:
Merrill Lynch 1.5% revised from 2.3%, Goldman Sachs 2% revised from 2.5%, GDP Now 1.5% revised from 2.7%, New Yord Fed 2.2%.

。U.S. retail sales recorded their biggest drop in more than nine years in December as receipts fell across the board, suggesting a sharp slowdown in economic activity at the end of 2018. December Retail Sales -1.2% M/M vs. +0.2% consensus to mark the biggest monthly drop since 2009.

。January Producer Price Index: -0.1% vs. +0.2% consensus, -0.1% previous (revised). +2.0% Y/Y. Core PPI +0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus, -0.1% prior. PPI growth is the slowest since 2017.

。时间紧迫，美国和中国将于下周在华盛顿恢复贸易谈判以缓解贸易战。美国总统唐纳德特朗普周五重申，他可能延长3月1日对中国商品增加关税的截止日期。美国和中国都报告了本周在北京进行为期五天的谈判取得的进展。---Reuters

。虽然估值对于市场时机来说是一个糟糕的工具，但有证据表明，当基准指数开始接近2,800点时，它就会感受到压力。自从圣诞节以来，标普500已经上升了18％， 距离2800只差25点。对于多头而言更为不利的是2019年盈利预测的突然下调。当基本情况持续下滑时，很难相信股市会继续上升。自9月以来，道琼斯工业平均指数已经走了8,000点的往返，但经济增长的读数并没有没有任何变动。在某些时候，基本面将重新确立。有人说现在就是那个时后。 ---Bloomberg

以下是一些基本面的坏消息：

。有近80％的标准普尔500指数公司已经报过第四季度业绩。根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师现在看到该季度的利润增长了16.2％。然而，展望未来，前景却继续恶化。第一季度盈利预期目前为下降0.5％，是自2016年中期以来的首次同比下降。这是10月份预测8.2％的大幅下降，并将成为三年来首次盈利萎缩。---New York Times

。日本，美国和欧元区PMI数据善报于周四公布。他们上个月的数据非常黯淡 - 例如欧元区采购经理人指数略高于50大关，这是收缩与扩张的分界线。第一季度将仅增长0.1％。在亚洲，中国的工厂活动为近三年来萎缩最多，而日本工厂则处于收缩的尖端。 ---Reuters

。第四季度国内生产总值将于2月28日星期四公布。以下是估算值：
美林证券1.5％从2.3%下调，高盛2％从2.5%下调，GDPNow 1.5％从2.7%下调，纽约美联储
2.2％。

。12月份美国零售销售录得超过9年来最大降幅，收入全面下滑，表明2018年底经济活动大幅放缓。12月零售销售月比下跌1.2％，市场预期为+ 0.2％是自2009年以来最大单月跌幅。

。1月生产者价格指数为-0.1％对比+ 0.2％的共识，12月为-0.1％（经修订），同比 + 2.0％。核心PPI + 0.3％对比+ 0.2％的共识，12月为-0.1％之前。 PPI增长是2017年以来最慢。