Fed，Rig Count，US Dollar, Things Are Different This Time，SuperBowl，Etc. 美联储，石油钻井，美元，这次情况不同, 超级杯等等

。“If the Fed is less spooked by full employment, more tolerant of an inflation overshoot and less anxious to reach restrictive policy, then 2020 might not be a year to think about recession and so late 2019/early 2020 would be premature to position defensively cross-asset,” strategists led by John Normand wrote in a note dated Feb. 1. ---Bloomberg

。After years of torrid buying of US properties by wealthy Chinese, purchases of US commercial real estate by the Chinese tumbled last year to the lowest level since 2012, according to a new report by the Wall Street Journal. The fall came as a result of Beijing continuing to pressure Chinese investors to bring cash home, instead of allowing it to leave the country. Recall, we reported back in early December that Chinese firms had dumped $1 billion of US real estate in the quarter prior. ---zerohedge

。Comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on February 1, 2019:
Oil Rig Count having fallen by 27 in the last four weeks, the model suggests the horizontal oil rig count will fall by additional 65 or so rigs before bottoming in April. So pencil in 100 total horizontal oil rigs lost in Q1.  Assuming oil prices crawl back up to $60 WTI – and both the futures curve and recent oil prices trends suggest that is possible – rig counts should stabilize or begin to recover in Q2. ---CalculatedRiskblog

。The magnitude of the currency drag appears to have caught many businesses off guard. Foreign exchange dents results at Pfizer, J&J and McDonald’s. For every 7 percent to 8 percent move in the dollar results in a 1 percent move in the opposite direction for U.S. corporate profits, according to Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse Group. The ICE Dollar index jumped 4.4 percent last year, the most since 2015. Not all companies hedge currency risk. Even for those that did attempt to guard against a rising dollar, the extent of the strength means that these efforts, typically done with forwards and options, may not have been very effective. ---Bloomberg

。While markets can certainly remain extended for much longer than logic would predict, they can not, and ultimately will not, stay overly extended indefinitely. The important point here is simply this. While the Fed may have curtailed the 2018 bear market temporarily, the environment today is vastly different than it was in 2008-2009.  Here are a few more differences:

Unemployment is 4%, not 10+%
Jobless claims are at historic lows, rather than historic highs.
Consumer confidence is optimistic, not pessimistic.
Corporate debt is a record levels and the quality of that debt has deteriorated.
The government is already running a $1 trillion deficit in an expansion not half that rate as prior to the last recession.
The economy is extremely long is a growth cycle, not emerging from a recession.
Pent up demand for houses, cars, and other durables has been absorbed.
Production and Services measures recently peaked, not bottomed.

In other words, the world is exactly the opposite of what it was when the Fed launched “monetary accommodation”previously. Logic suggests that such an environment will make further interventions by the Fed less effective.  ---Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, zerohedge

。Today is the annual Super Bowl day. The Super Bowl Predictor, of course, holds that the stock market will fall over the subsequent 12 months if the victor traces its roots back to the American Football League—as is true of the New England Patriots. In contrast, the stock market is forecast to rise if the winning team is from the original NFL—as is true of the Los Angeles Rams. Market Bulls are hoping that the New England Patriots will lose the Super Bowl. Bears would like the Los Angeles Rams to lose. ---Marketwatch

。This week's earning reports to watch:

Monday: GOOGL, GILD, STX
Tuesday: DIS, BP, SNAP
Wednesday: GM, CMG, HUM, TTWO
Thursday: TWTR, YUM, MAT, CAH
Friday: HAS, PSX, CLF



。Morgan Stanley以约翰·诺曼德（John Normand）为首的策略家在2月1日的一份报告中写道 “如果美联储不会因为充分就业而感到担忧，又能容忍通货膨胀过度而不太愿意实行限制性政策，那么2020年可能不是考虑经济衰退的一年，所以2019年末/ 2020年初对防御性的定位投资还是为时过早。“--Bloomberg

。据华尔街日报发布的一份报告显示，富裕中的国人经过多年来对美国房地产的大量购买后，中国人对美国商业地产的购买量在去年下降至2012年以来的最低水平。之所以下跌，是因为北京继续向中国投资者施加压力，要求将现金带回国，而不是让它离开这个国家。回想一下，我们在12月初报道称，中国公司在上个季度已经抛售了10亿美元的美国房地产。 --- zerohedge

。Princeton Energy Advisors LLC的Steven Kopits于2019年2月1日发表的评论：
石油钻井平台数量在过去四周内下降了27，研究模型显示卧式石油钻井平台数量将在4月触底前会再下降65架左右。因此，第一季度将损失100个卧式石油钻井平台。假设WTI 油价回升至60美元 - 期货曲线和近期油价趋势均表明有这个可能 - 第二季度钻机数量应能稳定或开始复苏。 --- CalculatedRiskblog

。美元的强势对盈利拖累的幅度似乎让许多企业措手不及。瑞士信贷集团（Credit Suisse Group）首席美国股票策略师乔纳森•戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）表示，美国公司利润在美元每7％至8％的增值下会导致美国公司利润向相反方向移动1％。外汇的波动已影响了辉瑞，强生和麦当劳的利润。 ICE美元指数去年上涨4.4％，为2015年以来的最高水平。 ---Bloomberg

。虽然市场可以延续上升的时间比逻辑预测的时间长得多，但它们不能，也不会最终无限期地保持过度延长。这里重要的是这一点。虽然美联储可能暂时缩减了2018年的熊市，但今天的环境与2008  -  2009年的情况大相径庭。以下是一些差异：

失业率为4％，而不是10 +％
首次申请失业救济人数处于历史低位，而不是历史高位。
消费者信心是乐观的，而不是悲观的。
公司债务达到创纪录水平，债务质量恶化。
政府已经实施了1万亿美元的赤字扩张，而不是上次经济衰退前的一半。
经济已在一个增长周期中维持了一个极长的时间，而非经济衰退。
对房屋，汽车和其他耐用品的需求已被吸收。
生产和服务数据最近达到顶峰，而非触底。

换句话说，现在的情况正好与美联储此前推出“货币宽松”的情况完全相反。逻辑显示这种环境将使美联储的进一步干预效果降低。 ---Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, zerohedge

。今天是一年一度的超级杯日。 当然，超级杯预测器认为，如果胜利者追溯到美国橄榄球联盟，那么股市将在随后的12个月中下跌 - 那就是如果新英格兰爱国者队胜出。 相比之下，如果获胜团队来自原来的NFL，预计股市将会上涨 - 那就是如果洛杉矶公羊队胜出此。 看好市场的人希望新英格兰爱国者队能够输掉超级杯。而看跌市场的人希望洛杉矶公羊队输球。


。本周将发布的部分企业报告：

星期一：GOOGL，GILD，STX
星期二：DIS，BP，SNAP
周三：GM，CMG，HUM，TTWO
星期四：TWTR，YUM，MAT，CAH
星期五：HAS，PSX，CLF