。Oversea markets: Shanghai ＋0.20%, Japan+0.60%, Hong Kong+1.01%, Germany +0.76%, UK +0.73%, France +0.65%.
。The U.S. wants China to agree to keep the yuan stable as part of the demands being put forth in current trade talks, while Beijing wants Washington to respect its right to develop and become prosperous. President Trump said on Tuesday that the discussions were going well and suggested he was open to pushing off the deadline to complete negotiations, outlining March 1 was not a "magical" date. ---Wall Street Breakfast
。Citing unnamed analysts, Chinese Communist Party-run newspaper Global Times says in an editorial that if "the US imposes more tariffs on Chinese products while China responds with fiercer countermeasures, it would be a catastrophic strike to global stock markets." U.S. President Donald Trump has frequently cited the American stock market's performance as a gauge of his success.
---CNBC
。Expectations are low as Theresa May heads back to Brussels today to find a way out of the Brexit impasse, despite clear statements from EU officials that they won't reopen the divorce deal. Even if she secures some kind of assurance over the temporary nature of the Irish backstop, it's not clear if that would placate Brexiteers in her own party who helped defeat her deal in parliament.
---Wall Street Breakfast
。It was a big reversal: Federal Reserve officials pivoted last month toward keeping interest rates on hold, and now minutes of their meeting may shed light on just how long. The Federal Open Market Committee pledged in its January statement to “be patient’’ on the timing of future rate “adjustments.” That backed away from the “some further gradual increases’’ it highlighted in December and left open whether the next move is up or down. Minutes of the Jan. 29-30 meeting are scheduled to be released at 2 p.m. in Washington. ---Bloomberg
。Reasons for gold's rise: Central banks have become fairly aggressive net buyers of gold. The Fed, which had been promising to tighten for years and now the tightening has stopped, to be replaced shortly with another, probably much bigger round of easing. This aligns the US with other major countries, which are already easing. Europe, now descending into what might be the death throes of its post-WWII single market plan, has one and only one chance to salvage it: Aggressive banking integration funded with extremely easy money.And China, after accounting for 60% of the world’s new credit in the past decade, has decided that that wasn’t enough, and is now creating new credit at an even faster rate. ---ZeroHedge
。Equities continue to trade “well” but the all-important test of 2798 is growing closer by the day. 2798 is important because the trend line connecting that point failed three times in Oct, Nov, and Dec. It would also coincide nicely with my Elliott Wave “5 count” that would speak of an “ABC” correction. Those are minor “cool offs” not substantial sell offs. Here are the possible market scenarios depending on the Fed minutes: If the Fed can convey a more dovish message than all these “neutral” comments Fed speakers have been delivering, then 2798 gets taken out and my Elliott Wave “5 count” will have to move up to 2900. If its neutral and the market finally realizes there is no dovish pivot; then you will likely get the correction the charts are forewarning. Again, the only question would be how severe. A simple ABC correction to say 2700/2650 (2-4%), or a deep 10% correction to blast out the FOMO buyers. No chance of a hawkish message so let’s not bother.
。海外市场：上海+ 0.20％，日本+ 0.60％，香港+ 1.01％，德国+ 0.76％，英国+ 0.73％，法国+ 0.65％。
。美国希望中国同意保持人民币稳定，作为当前贸易谈判要求的一部分，而北京希望华盛顿尊重其发展和繁荣的权利。特朗普总统周二表示，讨论进展顺利，并表示他愿意推迟完成谈判的最后期限，并称3月1日不是一个“神奇”的日期。 ---Wall Street Breakfast
。中国共产党报纸“环球时报”援引未具名分析师的话说，如果“美国对中国产品征收更多关税，而中国采取更激烈的对策，那将对全球股市造成灾难性打击。”美国总统唐纳德特朗普经常将美国股市的表现作为衡量他成功的标准。--- CNBC
。尽管欧盟官员明确表示他们不会重启英国脱欧协议谈判，特蕾莎梅今天回到布鲁塞尔寻求摆脱英国退欧僵局的方法的期望很低。即使她对爱尔兰支持者的临时性质有某种保证，但目前尚不清楚这是否会在她自己的政党中能安抚Brexiteers，这有助于打败她在议会中达成的协议。 ---Wall Street Breakfast
。联储1月29日至30日的会议纪要定于下午2点公布。美联储官员上个月转向维持利率不变 是一个巨大的逆转。 现在会议纪要可能会显示多长时间。联邦公开市场委员会在其1月份的声明中承诺“对未来利率调整时间”保持“耐心”。这背离了12月突出的“进一步逐步增加”的说法，但并没有显示下一步是上或下。 ---Bloomberg
。黄金上涨的原因：中央银行已成为相当积极的黄金净买家。美联储多年来一直承诺收紧货币政策，现在紧缩政策已经停止，很快就会被另一个可能更大的宽松政策取代。这使美国与其他已经放松的主要国家的步伐保持一致。欧洲现在正陷入二战后单一市场计划的死亡阵痛中，只有一次机会能挽救它：积极的银行业整合以极其宽松的资金资助。而在过去十年中中国占世界新的信贷的60％但这还不够，现在正以更快的速度创造新的信贷。 --- ZeroHedge
。股票继续交易“良好”，但2798的最重要测试日益接近。 2798是重要的，因为连接该点的趋势线在10月，11月和12月失败了三次。它也与我的Elliott Wave“5计数”很好地吻合，这将说明“ABC”校正。 那些是轻微的“冷静”并没有实质性的抛售。联储会议纪要可能带来的后果：如果美联储能够传达比美联储发言人提供的所有这些“中性”评论更温和的信息，那么2798将被向上突破，我的艾略特波浪“5计数”将不得不升至2900。如果信息是中立而市场意识到没有鸽派的偏向，股市可能会得到好好像图表预警一样的修正。唯一的问题是多严重。 一个简单的ABC修正会是2700/2650（2-4％），或10％的深度修正来打击FOMO (害怕失去机会）买家。联储没有机会发出鹰派信息，所以不用朝那里去想。---ZeroHedge
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