Optimism of a US-China trade deal by the end of February and earning reports are better than people's fear have been driving the recent market surge. As the market has discounted a good outcome in the trade deal and most influential earnings are done, what is left to drive the market higher? Bullish sentiment is too high.
Moving averages have proven to be good supports and resistances especially the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Recently as the Dow cleared and stayed above its 200 day moving average for more than 3 days, other indexes followed the lead and have been racing towards their 200 day moving averages. The benchmark index S&P 500 is closest to its 200 day moving averages (2741) than the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 and it has came to only 3 points away from 2741 today. It virtually has reached resistance. The stock market is likely going to pause if not reverse and correct. Other market turning signs are also lining up, and they are trend line crossing on February 4 and February 7, New Moon and Beginning of Spring( Chinese Calendar) on February 4. These are proven accurate turning point signals and they are here.
The odd favors a market correction near term.
自2018年12月26日以来，主要市场指数一直在飙升。在过去29天里（包括今天），标准普尔500指数上涨16.5％，道指上涨16.9％，纳斯达克指数上涨19.5％，罗素2000指数上涨20.1％。在如此短的时间内有这种大动作在过去的20年中从未发生过。市场一直在制造惊喜，任何事情都可能发生在股票市场上。然而，这也意味着市场已非常超买。
期望2月底美中达成贸易协议的乐观情绪和企业财报优于人们的恐惧水平导至近期市场飙升。由于市场已经反映了美中贸易谈判会取得了良好的成果加上最有影响力的财报已经报出，还有什么能够推动市场走高呢？看涨情绪已过于高涨。
移动平均线已被证明是很好的支撑和阻力，尤其是50日和200日移动平均线。最近，由于道琼斯指数突破并守稳了200天移动平均线超过3天，其他指数也跟随并且一直在走向他们的200天移动平均线。市场基准指数标准普尔500指数比纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数最接近200天移动平均线（2741），今天的高位与2741点相差仅3点。它实际上已达到了阻力。股市可能会暂停上升甚至会下跌调整。其他市场转折迹象也已出现，它们是2月4日的新月和立春（中国历法），2月4日和2月7日的趋势线交叉。这些都是已被证实准确度较高的市转势信号而它们已经到来。
近期的市场下跌调整的机率大。
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