Market Selloff Trigger Will Likely Be The Actual Trade Agreement 触发市场抛售可能是实际的贸易协议

Major market indexes gone through a few reiterations today:opened down, bounced, dropped to day's lows and bounced again before the close but still closed moderately down. US-China trade talk news is good today but worse than expected Philadelphia Fed report and durable good report dragged market down. The fact that good news from the important US-China trade talk did not help market indicates good news is mostly reflected after an 18% surge in the S&P 500 index since December lows of last year. Since there is no actual agreement signed on the trade talk yet, some investors are still hopeful that better than expected agreement will be signed. This hope fueled some buying today. However, I believe when the actual trade agreement is out, sell on news will happen.

Technically, major market indexes are facing formidable resistances. These resistances are Dow 26000, S&P 500 2800, Nasdaq 7500 and Russell 2000 1588. Some downward consolidation at these high levels seem very reasonable. Down side supports are Dow 25065, S&P 500 2746,Nasdaq 7300 and Russell 2000 1520 levels. More serious downside will happen if these supports are broken. Supports for more serious downside would be Dow 24312, S&P 500 2622, Nasdaq 7015 and Russell 2000 1447 levels.

I do think that more serious correction is likely and the trigger will be when the actual trade talk agreement is announced.

Market is now on schedule with the February 19 trend reversal. The next two market turning point days are February 28 and March 5.

今天主要市场指数经历了几度涨跌 ：开盘下跌，反弹，盘中跌至日内低点并在收盘前再次反弹，但仍然以温和下跌收盘。美中贸易谈判消息是今天的利好，但比预期更糟糕的费城联储的报告和耐用品订单报告拖累市场下跌。在自去年12月低点以来标准普尔500指数飙升18％之后，重要的美中贸易谈判的好消息无助于市场，表明贸易谈判的好消息已经大部分被反映过。由于还没签署实际协议，一些投资者仍然希望签署的协议会好于预期。这种希望导致今天买盘仍然踊跃。但是，我相信当实际的贸易协议出来时，美股就会被抛售。

从技术上讲，主要市场指数面临强大阻力。这些阻力位是道指26000，标准普尔500 2800，纳斯达克7500和罗素2000 1588。在这些高水平水平市场向下整合应该是非常合理的。下面的支撑位为道指25065，标准普尔500 2746，纳斯达克7300和罗素2000 1520水平。如果这些支持被击破，更严重的下行将会发生。更严重的下行支撑将是道指24312，标准普尔500 2622，纳斯达克7015和罗素2000 1447水平。

我认为进行更严重的修正的可能性大，实际的贸易谈判协议公布时或会是下行的触发时间。

市场现在正进行2月19日的开始的趋势反转，而下两个市场转折日是2月28日和3月5日。