Morning Market News Digest And Comment 早盘市场新闻摘要及评论

Pacific Time 7:30AM : Dow+76.10，  S&P 500 +11.88， Nasdaq +36.64， Russell 2000 +7.22, WTI crude oil+1.40%，Gold+0.55%， US dollar index-0.05%, 10 Year Treasury yield1.962% -0.014

Oversea markets: Shanghai-0.94%, Japan-0.53%, Hong Kong-0.07%, Germany+0.65%, UK+0.57%, France +0.59%.

Weak sectors: SMH, FXI, EEM, OIH  Strong sectors: IYR, PPH, EWG, SOCL, IYT, SOCL

The nomination of Christine Largarde to lead European Central Bank and Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton by Trump for Federal Reserve Governor are seem as good for lower interest rate.  Low interest rate environment is supportive for the stock market. Both European stock market and US stock market rallied this morning. S&P 500 made new high while Dow is less than 100 points away from its historical high and the Nasdaq is only about 40 points away from its. Historically, the day before and the day after July 4 Independent Day are usually up days. All time highs for both the Dow and Nasdaq Composite will likely tested during this couple of days. Today the market closes at 10 AM Pacific Time.


。Private sector employment increased by 102,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “Job growth started to show signs of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “While large businesses continue to do well, small businesses are struggling as they compete with the ongoing tight labor market. The goods producing sector continues to show weakness. Among services, leisure and hospitality’s weakness could be a reflection of consumer confidence.” ---Calculated Risk

。Gold prices extended a rally Wednesday, surging to around its highest level in six years as expectations grew for loose global monetary policy, which may bolster the appeal of the yellow metal. International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde’s nomination to lead the European Central Bank and those of Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton by President Donald Trump has supported a rush to buy government debt, driving European sovereign paper and U.S. Treasury yields sharply lower Wednesday. Shelton said that if appointed, she would lower interest rates to 0% in one to two years. In addition to wanting 0% rates, Shelton seeks a return to the gold standard and has written that central banks ‘are the world’s biggest currency manipulators’. ---Market Watch, Mish Talk

。The global sovereign bond rally continues apace this morning. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped to the lowest level in more than two years, hitting 1.955%, while Germany’s 10-year yield is trading within a gnat’s whisker of the ECB deposit rate at -0.4%. The huge leg-up in Italian bonds still has legs, with the 10-year yield hitting 1.703% this morning as the government eases its budget ambitions. Analysts don’t see an end to the global rally anytime soon -- with a few notable exceptions. ---Bloomberg

。During an interview with Maria Bartiromo last week, President Trump accused Vietnam of being "almost the single worst abuser of everybody" and asserted that "Vietnam takes advantage of us even worse than China." In a series of preliminary rulings, the Commerce Department is slapping 400%+ steel tariffs on Vietnam. In its finding, the Commerce Department listed several steel products initially produced in South Korea and Taiwan that are then shipped to Vietnam for processing before being exported to the US. --Zero Hedge

。Over the past three months, the financial sector has turned from laggard to leader, rising 5.9%, versus a 3.5% advance for the S&P 500 index SPX, making it the best-performing S&P sector since the start of April, according to FactSet. From the beginning of 2018 through March of this year, the S&P 500 had risen 6%, versus a 7.9% decline for the financial sector. Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo, wrote in a Tuesday research note that financial stocks should continue to outperform the broader market. “The financials sector offers the most attractive forecast total yield over the next 12 months, compared to the other S&P 500 sectors,” he wrote, noting that this measurement includes both dividends and buybacks. “This is a particularly attractive feature in the current low-rate environment, in which the major stock indices are at (or near) what we consider to be ‘fair value.’” ---Market Watch

。Tesla (TSLA) announces production of 87,048 vehicles in Q2 and deliveries of 95,200 vehicles vs. 87K-91K expected by analysts.nalysts remain skeptical on Tesla heading into its Q2 financials. Both Goldman Sachs and JPM weighed in on Tesla this morning, with Goldman keeping its "sell" rating and $158 target and JPM also maintaining its price target of $200 and keeping its "underperform" rating on the name. Goldman noted that despite numbers coming in over its estimates, the sustainability of demand remains a key focus. As a result, Goldman still expects a substantial "step down" in demand and deliveries into Q3. Goldman also noted a shift in product mix toward the Model 3, which it thinks could have a negative impact on margin. ---Zero Hedge, Seeking Slpha

。Broadcom (AVGO) appears to still be on a buying spree, with the chipmaker in advanced talks to acquire security software vendor Symantec (SYMC). ---Seeking alpha

。Starbucks (SBUX) — Stifel raised its price target on Starbucks to $86 per share from $65 a share, noting it expects the company’s second-quarter same-store sales to come in above Wall Street expectations. ---CNBC

。Dell(DELL), Microsoft (MSFT), HP Inc (HPQ) — Nikkei reported that Dell, Microsoft, and HP were among a number of U.S. tech companies looking to shift “substantial” production operations out of China. HP and Dell, specifically plan to relocate as much as 30% of their production capacity out of China, the report said, citing sources. ---CNBC







太平洋时间7:30 AM：道琼斯指数76.10，标准普尔500指数+11.88，纳斯达克指数+36.64，罗素2000 +7.22，WTI原油+ 1.40％，黄金+ 0.55％，美元指数0.05％，10年期国债收益率1.962％ -0.014

海外市场：上海-0.94％，日本-0.53％，香港-0.07％，德国+ 0.65％，英国+ 0.57％，法国+ 0.59％。

弱势行业：SMH，FXI，EEM，OIH  强势行业：IYR，PPH，EWG，SOCL，IYT，SOCL


Christine Largarde 被提名领导欧洲央行和特朗普提名Christopher Waller 及 Judy Shelton为美联储理事提名被认为对利率下降有利。低利率环境支持股市。欧洲股市和美国股市今早均上涨。标普500指数创下历史新高，道琼斯指数低于历史高点只有小于100点，而纳斯达克指数距离其仅约40点。从历史上看，7月4日前一天和前一天的独立日通常都是上涨日。道琼斯指数和纳斯达克综合指数的历史高位可能会在这两天内被测试。今天市场将在太平洋时间上午10点提早收市。

。根据6月ADP全国就业报告，私营企业就业人数从5月到6月增加了102,000个。该报告源自ADP的实际工资数据，以季节性调整的方式衡量每月非农业私营就业总数的变化。 ADP研究所副总裁兼联合负责人Ahu Yildirmaz表示，“就业增长开始出现放缓的迹象”。 “虽然大型企业继续表现良好，但小企业在与持续紧张的劳动力市场竞争时仍在苦苦挣扎。商品生产部份继续表现疲软。在服务业中，休闲和待客的弱势可能反映了消费者的信心。“---Calculated Risk

。黄金价格周三延续涨势，飙升至六年来的最高水平，因为全球宽松货币政策的预期增加，这可能会提振黄金的吸引力。国际货币基金组织负责人克里斯蒂娜•拉加德（Christine Lagarde）领导欧洲中央银行以及克里斯托弗•沃勒（Christopher Waller）和朱迪•谢尔顿（Judy Shelton）领导的总统唐纳德特朗普（Donald Trump）一直支持购买政府债券。欧洲主权债券和美国国债收益率周三大幅走低。谢尔顿说，如果获得任命，她会在一到两年内将利率降至0％。除了要求0％的利率之外，谢尔顿寻求回归黄金标准，并写道中央银行是世界上最大的货币操纵者。 ---Market Watch，Mish Talk

。今天上午全球主权债券反弹继续快速增长。 10年期美国国债收益率跌至两年多以来的最低水平，达到1.955％，而德国10年期国债收益率在欧洲央行存款利率的-0.4％之间交易。由于政府放松了预算目标，意大利债券的大幅上涨仍有支撑，10年期收益率达到1.703％。分析师认为主权债券不会很快结束全球性反弹 - 除了一些明显的例外。 ---彭博

。在上周接受Maria Bartiromo采访时，特朗普总统指责越南“几乎是所有国家中最严重的滥用者”，并断言“越南利用我们的优势甚至比中国更糟糕”。在一系列初步裁决中，商务部正在对越南征收400％以上的钢铁关税。在其调查结果中，商务部列出了最初在韩国和台湾生产的几种钢铁产品，然后在出口到美国之前运往越南进行加工。 --Zero Hedge

。根据FactSet 统计，在过去三个月中，金融业已从落后者转为领先者，上涨5.9％，标准普尔500指数SPX上涨3.5％，使其成为自4月初以来表现最佳的标准普尔板块。从2018年初到今年3月，标准普尔500指数上涨了6％，金融业上涨了7.9％。富国银行（Wells Fargo）资深全球股票策略师斯科特•雷恩（Scott Wren）在周二的研究报告中写道，金融股应继续跑赢大盘。 “与其他标准普尔500指数相比，金融板块在未来12个月内提供了最具吸引力的预测总收益率，”他并指出这一指标包括股息和回购。 “在目前的低利率环境中，这是一个特别有吸引力的特征，其中主要股票指数处于（或接近）我们认为的'公平价值'。”---Market Watch

。特斯拉（TSLA）宣布第二季度生产87,048辆汽车，交付量为95,200辆，而分析师预计为87K-91K。对于特斯拉进入第二季度财务状况，分析师则仍持怀疑态度。今天上午，高盛和JPM都对特斯拉产生了压力，高盛保持其“卖出”评级和158美元的目标，而JPM也维持其200美元的目标价，并保持其“表现不佳”的评级。高盛指出，尽管数据超出预期，但需求的可持续性仍然是关键焦点。因此，高盛仍然预计需求将大幅“下降”并进入第三季度。高盛还注意到产品组合向模型3的转变，它认为这可能对利润率产生负面影响。 --- Zero Hedge，Seeking Alpha

。Broadcom（AVGO）似乎仍在疯狂收购中，该芯片制造商正在进行深入谈判，以收购安全软件供应商赛门铁克（SYMC）。 ---Seeking alpha

。星巴克（SBUX） -  Stifel将星巴克的目标价格从每股65美元上调至每股86美元，并指出该公司第二季度的同店销售额将高于华尔街的预期。--- CNBC

。戴尔（DELL），微软（MSFT），惠普公司（HPQ） - 据日经报道称，戴尔，微软和惠普是众多希望将“实质性”生产业务转移出中国的科技公司之一。 报道称，惠普和戴尔特别计划将其生产能力的30％从中国迁出。--- CNBC