VIX May Get Squeeze To High In A Flash When Panic Hit 惊慌失措时VIX可能会瞬间被挤到高位

Major stock indexes are dropping near 2% as market reacts to a below average ADP employment  report today following a disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI report yesterday. The two day consecutive drop cost the Dow nearly 900 points. After dropping below their crucial 50 day moving average supports, major market indexes are trending towards their 200 day moving averages and their

August lows. For the benchmark S&P 500, the 200 day moving average level is 2837 and August low is 2822. What will cause this to happen may be disappointment on tomorrow's ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and Friday's Non-Farm Payroll reports. These two reports are likely to be weak.

With manufacturing data weak for two months in a row, weakness are likely negatively impacting  non-manufacturing data. Since the ADP employment is weak, don't see how can Non-Farm Payroll be good. Global economic slow down and US recession fear is getting stronger. As far as the trade talk is concern, the world’s two largest economies are in a game of chicken, and neither’s leader, so far, appears prone to flinching first. So don't expect a resolution on trade soon.  In the worst case, if major market indexes broke their August lows, for a panic stock sell off, the "Fear Gauge" VIX may get squeezed and may reach its high of last December at around 35 in matter of days. It is up about 11% today and is now trading around 21. 

昨日ISM制造业PMI报告令人失望之后，市场对今天低于预期的ADP就业报告做出更加负面的反应，主要股指下跌近2％。连续两天下跌使道琼斯指数下跌了近900点。在跌破关键的50天移动均线支撑之后，主要市场指数正走向它们的200天移动均线及八月份低点。基准标准普尔500指数的200天移动平均线为2837，8月低点为2822。市场在跌的原因可能会是明天的ISM非制造业指数和周五的非农就业报告也可能会令人失望。由于制造业数据连续两个月疲软，这可能会对非制造业数据产生负面影响。由于ADP的就业数据不令人满意，因此不要期望非农就业数据会好。另外全球经济放缓及对美国经济衰退的恐惧越来越强烈。就中美贸易谈判而言，世界上两个最大的经济体还在互相角力中，到目前为止，没有哪个领导人似乎容易退缩。因此，不要指望很快达成贸易决议。在最坏的情况下，如果主要市场指数跌破8月份的低点，在恐慌性的股票抛售下，“ 恐慌指数” VIX可能会受到挤压，并可能在几天之内达到去年12月的高点35。 今天它上涨了约11％，现在交易在21附近。