High PE stocks have been getting killed during the past 3 weeks. The reasons for this are worries over rising treasury yields and inflation, investors are getting out of growth and into value stocks and most importantly, high PE need to normalized. Normal PE ranges from 15 to 18 in history.
The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite were down 12.5% from all time high to last Friday's low. In the last 1 month hot EV stocks TSLA, NIO, BLNK, SOLO are down 30%, 34%, 42% and 38% respectively. The high flying clean energy stocks SUNW, SPWR, JKS and Plug are down 47%, 31% , 35% and 42% respectively. Meanwhile, the popular work at home stocks TDOC, PTON, CHWY and CRWD are down 30%, 29%, 20% and 16% respectively. Stocks that go up big are likely to come down big. The above listed stocks are still over hyped and many of them are still up over 200% in the last 12 months and they have either no PE or very high PE. They are still not come down enough. Time is going to be different for these stocks now versus last year, instead of buy on dips last year, it should be sell on rallies this year.
Last Friday, major indexes all reversed from big down to big up, forming bullish tail reversals , these kind of guarantee a follow through for the next day or two technically. But the trend may not last very long. The Nasdaq Composite is solidly below its critical 50 day moving average 13341, the rally may fail when it get close to this resistance. Meanwhile both the Dow and S&P 500 may be capped by their all time high levels at 32009 and 3950 respectively, there a're not much room to run. The passing of the $1.9 Trillion stimulus package in congress is seemingly positive, however the negative it bring above is treasury yields are going to be driven even higher. So, be careful out there, sell on rallies may be a good strategy for the stock market.
在过去的3周，高PE股票遭到大屠杀。原因是对国债收益率和通胀上涨的担忧，投资者从增长股逃离而进入价值股，最重要的是，高PE需要正常化化。历史上的PE范围为15至18。
从历史高位到上周五地位，科技股偏重的纳斯达克综合指数下跌了12.5％。在过去的1个月热门的电动车相关股票TSLA，NIO，BLNK，SOLO分别下跌了30％，34％，42％和38％。高飞的清洁能源股SUNW，SPWR，JKS和PLUG分别下跌了47％，31％，35％和42％。与此同时，流行的居家工作股票TDOC，PTON，CHWY和CRWD分别下降30％，29％，20％和16％。上升得多的股票必然会下跌得多。上面列出被过份炒作的股票估值仍然超高，其中许多股票在过去12个月仍然上升超过200％，并且它们都没有PE或非常高的PE。他们仍然没有跌够。今时不同往日，对待这些股票的策略不是去年的逢低买入而今年应该是逢高卖出。
上周五，主要指数都从大跌逆转到大幅攀升，形成看涨的长尾反转，技术上或保证了有一两天的反弹。但这种趋势可能不会持续很长时间。纳斯达克综合指数稳稳地低于其关键50天移动平均线水平13341，在升至接近这个阻力时，反弹可能会被阻。同时，道指和S＆P 500都可能会分别在32009和3950历史高水平被阻挡而没有多少上升空间。国会的12万亿刺激计划的通过看似是正面的，但负面的影响则是国债收益率将被推得更高。所以要小心，逢高卖出可能是股票市场的正确策略。
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