I usually find stock with good upside momentum to buy because it is safer to go with the trend. However, sometimes it's also a profit opportunity when a stock is overdone on the downside and is ready for a sharp bounce. GoHealth Inc. (GOCO) is such a stock.
GoHealth, Inc.(GOCO 4.07) operates as a health insurance marketplace and Medicare focused digital health company in the United States. It operates through four segments: Medicare—Internal; Medicare—External; Individual and Family Plans (IFP) and Other—Internal; and Individual and Family Plans and Other—External. The company operates a technology platform that leverages machine-learning algorithms of insurance behavioral data to optimize the process for helping individuals find the health insurance plan for their specific needs. Its products include Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, Medicare prescription drug plans, and Medicare Special Needs Plans; and IFP, dental plans, vision plans, and other ancillary plans to individuals. The company sells its products through carrier and online platform, as well as independent and external agencies. GoHealth, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
After dropping 33% from 12 to 8 (from June 29 to August 11), GOCO dropped another 50% in the following 2 days after earning report. It has plunged a total of 66% since June 29,2021! Followings are reasons why this is overdone:
1. GOCO reported 40% increase in earning in Q2, 2 cents better than expected.
2. Analysts projected earnings for this year, next year and the next 5 years are +55%, +67% and +75% respectively.
3. Currently, consensus rating for GOCO is 4.14 (5 is highest), a moderate buy rating based on 7 analysts. Highest analyst target is 15, lowest is 9 and the median price is 12, and stock is now trading at only 4.07!
4. Technically, trading volume for the last 2 days are 28 and 17 millions respectively and they are higher than average trading volume by 17 times and 11 times respectively. This sure look like climax selling and sharp bounce is likely to ensue. CCI was down to -517 on Thursday, it has never been this low. Dividing the drop from 12 to 4 using Fibonacci golden ratios, a normal 38.2% oversold bounce will likely take GOCO back up to 6.5 to 7 level.
Conclusion: Based on the fact that the current price of 4.07, GOCO price is heavily discounted with the median price of 12 from analysts, a never this low CCI reading and trading volume indicates selling climax, bargain hunting and short covering will likely happen, a sharp bounce on GOCO price is likely near term.
Following charts are sourced from Barchart.com
我通常会找具有良好上涨势头的股票去买，因为顺应趋势更安全。然而，有时当一只股票下跌过度并准备大幅反弹时，这也是一个获利机会。 GoHealth Inc. (GOCO) 就是这样一只股票。
GoHealth, Inc. (GOCO 4.07)在美国是一家健康保险市场和专注于医疗保险的数字健康公司。它通过四个部分运作：医疗保险——内部；医疗保险——外部；个人和家庭计划 (IFP) 和其他 - 内部；个人和家庭计划及其他—外部。该公司运营一个技术平台，利用保险行为数据的机器学习算法来优化流程，帮助个人找到满足其特定需求的健康保险计划。其产品包括 Medicare Advantage、Medicare Supplement、Medicare 处方药计划和 Medicare Special Needs Plans； IFP、牙科计划、视力计划和其他针对个人的辅助计划。该公司通过运营商和在线平台以及独立和外部代理销售其产品。 GoHealth, Inc. 成立于 2001 年，总部位于伊利诺伊州芝加哥。
6月29日至8月11日，从12跌至8， 下跌33%后，GOCO在财报公布后的两天内又再下跌了50%。自 2021 年 6 月 29 日以来，它总共暴跌了 66%！以下是为什么它已下跌过度的理由：
1. GOCO 报告第二季度收益增长 40%，比预期好 2 美分。
2、分析师预计今年、明年和未来5年的盈利增长分别为+55%、+67%和+75%。
3. 目前，GOCO 的共识评级为 4.14（5 为最高）， 7 位分析师的综合评级为中度买入评级。分析师的最高目标是 15，最低是 9，中间目标是 12，股票现在的交易价格仅为 4.07！
4、技术上，近2天成交量分别为2800和1700万股，分别高于平均成交量17倍和11倍。这种高潮抛售很可能会带来GOCO的急剧反弹。周四 CCI 跌至-517，从未有如此之低。使用斐波那契黄金分割法将12 到 4 的跌幅划分，正常38.2%的超卖反弹可能会使 GOCO 回到 6.5 到 7 的水平。
结论：基于4.07的当前价格，GOCO价格大幅低于分析师的中位数价格12，从未如此低的CCI读数和交易量显示抛售高潮，抄底买入及卖空回补将会发生，GOCO价格很可能会在近期大幅反弹.
以下图表源自Barchart.com：
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