Major market indexes bounced after terrible September performances at the start of October. However, 50 day moving averages are still formidable resistances for the indexes. Without recovering above 50 day moving averages, US stock market downtrend will continue. As a matter of fact, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have all formed very bearish Head and Shoulder tops in the past 3 months, these means US stock market has seen the top. Stocks rallied early today on the tail of strong bounces of Chinese internet stocks, however the rally has since fizzled. Buy on dips have not been working lately. Major stock market indexes are likely to drop towards their 200 day moving averages, they are Dow 33510, S&P 500 4158 and Nasdaq 14013.
Besides technically bearish, followings are a list of bearish fundamental reasons :
1. The Fed, ECB and BOE are all ready to tighten monetary policy soon.
2. High inflation and slow growth ushering in stagflation.
3. Possible Chinese real estate problem contagion.
4. Corporate profit margins are shrinking due to higher material and labor costs.
5. Global fuel concern is spreading. Energy crisis could hamper economic growth.
6. Q3 earning reports are starting to come in and there has been a lot of downward revisions.
7. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have slashed their 2021 and 2022 GDP estimates.
8. Bullish sentiment is still at extreme as VIX is near its low. When there are problems all around, too much bullishness is not a good situation.
经过9 月份的糟糕表现之后主要市场指数在 10 月初反弹。然而，50 天移动平均线仍然是个大指数的强大阻力。如果不能恢复到 50 日均线上方，美国股市将继续下跌趋势。事实上，道指、标普500和纳斯达克综合指数在过去3个月都已形成了非常看跌的头肩顶形态，这意味着美股已经见顶。受中国互联网股的强劲反弹的帮助，今日早盘美股上涨，但之后涨势告吹。最近逢低买进都不能维持。主要股市指数可能会跌向 它们的200 天移动平均线，它们是道琼斯指数 33510、标准普尔 500 指数 4158 和纳斯达克指数 14013。
除了技术上看跌外，以下是看跌的基本面原因：
1.美联储、ECB和BOE都准备尽快收紧货币政策。
2. 高通胀、低增长导致滞胀。
3. 中国房地产问题可能蔓延全球。
4. 由于材料和劳动力成本上升，企业利润率正在萎缩。
5. 全球燃料担忧正在蔓延。能源危机可能阻碍经济增长。
6、Q3财报开始出炉，近来预期一值被下调。
7. 高盛和摩根士丹利今天下调了对 2021 年和 2022 年 GDP 的预测。
8. 由于 VIX 接近低点，看涨情绪仍处于极端状态。在危机四伏的情况下，过分看涨不是好事，
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