Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Reasons For US Stock Market Ready To Come Down 美股下跌在即的理由

The followings are reasons for the market likely to come down in the near term:  Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow are likely to be capped at the 200-day moving average resistance after rising nearly 24%, 18% and 14%, respectively, from their June lows. The volatility index VIX near April lows shows that investor sentiment is overly optimistic. CPI at 8.5%, much higher than Fed target of 2%, this will likely cause the Fed to continue accelerate its interest rate hike. Major tech stock valuations are too high, followings are their PEG levels (1 is fair value, below 1 is under value, over 1 is over value):AMZN 3.92, AAPL 2.91, NVDA 2.16, TSLA 2.13, MSFT 1.97, META 1.97, QCOM 1.74 and GOOG1.48.  AAPL's rise of more than 36% since June is somewhat outrageous and most worrying.




以下是市场近期会下跌的原因:纳斯达克指数、标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯指数在从六月低位分别上涨了近 24%、18% 和 14% 后,很可能会在 200 日均线阻力位被阻回落。 接近 4 月低点的波动率指数 VIX 表明投资者情绪也过于乐观。 CPI 为 8.5%,远高于美联储 2%的目标,这将导致美联储继续加速加息。 主要科技股估值过高,以下是他们的PEG水平(1为公允价值,低于1为低估,超过1为高估):AMZN 3.92,AAPL 2.91,NVDA 2.16,TSLA 2.13,MSFT 1.97,META 1.97, 高通 1.74 和 GOOG1.48。AAPL从六月低位已经上升了超过36%有些离谱,是最令人担心的股票。












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