Who Is Right: The Federal Reserve Or The Stock Market?谁是对的：美联储还是股市？

The Federal Reserve as expected raised Fed Fund Rate by 0.5% to 4.25-4.50% and the Dot Plot raised next year's interest rate projection sharply. Jay Powell's talk was also hawkish. ZeroHedge summarized Hawkish talk as follows:

"POWELL: LABOR MARKET REMAINS EXTREMELY TIGHT

POWELL: A RESTRICTIVE POLICY STANCE LIKELY NEEDED FOR SOME TIME

POWELL: NEED SUBSTANTIALLY MORE EVIDENCE OF LOWER INFLATION

POWELL: FED STILL HAS SOME WAYS TO GO ON RATE HIKES

POWELL: STANCE ISN'T YET RESTRICTIVE ENOUGH EVEN W/ TODAY'S MOVE

POWELL: NO RATE CUTS UNTIL CONFIDENT INFLATION MOVING TOWARD 2%

POWELL: WILL HAVE TO HOLD RESTRICTIVE RATES FOR SUSTAINED TIME"

However, the stock market's resilient reaction to these hawkishness is a big surprise with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq down only 0.42%, 0.61% and 0.76% respectively and the Fear Index VIX even closed down 6.25%! There were no fear in the market as if the market is saying to the Federal Reserve: We don't believe you, you are wrong!

Who is right, the Federal Resrve or the market? We will know tomorrow (the real market's reaction to a Fed decision usually happens on the day after). I wouldn't go against the Fed. I think the stock market will likely drop big tomorrow.

美联储一如预期将联邦基金利率上调0.5% 到4.25-4.50%，点阵图大幅上调明年的利率预测。 杰伊鲍威尔的讲话也很鹰派。 ZeroHedge 将鹰派谈话总结如下：

“鲍威尔：劳动力市场仍然非常紧张

鲍威尔：一段时间内可能需要采取限制性政策立场

鲍威尔：需要更多证据证明通胀下降

鲍威尔：美联储仍有一段时间继续加息

鲍威尔：即使今天采取行动，立场还不够严格

鲍威尔：在有信心通胀率跌至 2% 之前不会降息

鲍威尔：将不得不维持限制性利率一段时间”

然而，股市对这些强硬态度的反应令人大跌眼镜，道指、标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克指数分别仅下跌 0.42%、0.61% 和 0.76%，而恐惧指数 VIX 甚至收跌 6.25%！ 市场没有恐惧，就好像市场在对美联储说：我们不相信你，你错了！

谁是对的，美联储还是市场？ 我们明天就会知道（实际市场对美联储决定的反应通常发生在后一天）。 我不会跟美联储作对。 我认为明天股市极可能会大幅下跌。