美股的危险情况 The Dangerous Situation Of US Stocks

美国第一季GDP增长1.1%，大幅小于2%的预期及去年第四季度的2.6%。PCE价格指数为4.2% 高于第四季的3.7%。核心PCE价格为4.9%对4.7%的预期及第四季的4.4%。经济放缓了但价格上升了是不好的情况，显示联储或需继续加息。今早TLT因而下跌。初领失业金人数增至17个月来高位，有进入经济不景气的趋势。META财报好于预期，股票大升超14%。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic 认为标普500指数将难以突破4100到4200阻力区，而会在夏季初期会跌至3500水平。近两日道琼斯运输指数大跌并低于20，50及200日均线，趋势向下。道氏理论显示不久道琼斯工业指数将会跟随下跌。标普500短期支撑是50日均线4932，阻力是20日均线4112。联储继续加息的机会大，经济有进入不景气的信号，高科技股上升过度，VIX显示投资人看涨情绪过度，股票指数均遇到阻力及五月份股市传统的弱势，都是近期股市的危险情况。美股策略为逢高卖出。

U.S. GDP grew by 1.1% in the first quarter, significantly lower than the 2% forecast and 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter of last year. The PCE price index came in at 4.2%, up from 3.7% in the fourth quarter. Core PCE prices came in at 4.9% vs. 4.7% expected and 4.4% in the fourth quarter. A slowing economy but rising prices is a bad situation, indicating that the Fed may need to continue raising interest rates. TLT fell as a result this morning. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits rose to a 17-month high, and there is a trend of entering an economic recession. META's financial report was better than expected, and the stock rose by more than 14%. JPMorgan Chase strategist Marko Kolanovic believes that the S&P 500 will struggle to break through the 4100-4200 resistance zone, and will fall to the 3500 level in early summer. In the past two days, the Dow Jones Transportation Index has fallen sharply and is below the 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, and its trend is downward. Dow Theory suggests that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will soon follow suit. The short-term support of the S&P 500 is the 50-day moving average of 4932, and the resistance is the 20-day moving average of 4112. There is a great opportunity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates, the economy is showing signs of recession, high-tech stocks have risen excessively, VIX shows that investors are overly bullish, stock indexes have encountered resistance, and the traditional weakness of the stock market in May all are danger signs for the stock market in the near future. The US stock market  strategy is to sell on rallies.