Friday, December 8, 2023

Today's US Stock Market

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 199K in November, topping the +180K expected and increasing from 150K in October, which was unrevised from its initial release. U Mich inflation expectations (one year ahead) collapsed to 3.1% in preliminary December data after soaring to 4.5 % in November. Medium-term inflation expectations also tumbled from 3.2% to 2.8%. Treasury ETF TLT is down 1.25% and 10 year yield rises to 4.247%.

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi is promoting short Tesla (TSLA) stock as Berstein's "best idea for 2024" seeing nerly 40% down from the current level. Analyst has an Underweight rating on TSLA and a $150 per share price target. TSLA is up 0.47% .

The UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is actively assessing the nature of Microsoft's (MSFT) collabboration with OpenAI, the regulator said today. The CMA is examining whether this partnership, or any modifications to it, has given rise to a pertinent merger scenario as outlined in the Enterprise Act 2002. MSFT is up 0.33%.

Broadcom (AVGO) Non-GAAP EPS of $11.06 beats by $0.10, revenue of $9.3B beats by $20M, issued its outlook for 2024 on Thursday, anticipating $50B in revenue and EBITDA margins of 60%. And while the company acknowledged some cyclical Slowness in its broadband and storage semiconductor businesses, Wall Street believes the Hock Tan-led company should see strength in the back half of the year. AVGO is down 0.74%. 

Today's strong non-farm payroll report hurts lower interest rate trend, however collapsing inflation expectation helps. This confusion is causing the market fluctuates up and down this morning, but major indexes are stable. My impressions with the state of the market are as follows:

1. After strong rally since late October, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are facing resistances at July highs. They are not easy to overcome.

2. Fed is expected to stay put with interest rate next week as the market has been expecting. No big surprise is expected. Sell on news is a high prosperity.

3. AAII's bearish sentiment is at 6 year low, this extreme bullishness is not healthy for the market near term.

4. US stocks are on an uptrend, however, it needs a rest possibly in the form of a downside retracement before going higher.




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