Bitcoin Is Alive Again 比特币又活起来了

After Bitcoin sank  $11739 from January 8 high $42000 to January 11 low $30261, it bounced and is now trading near $37100, a quick two-day rally of over $6800. This signifies the recent correction is over and it has restarted its uptrend.  $36000 becomes the key support now. If $36000 hold, it may be ready to challenge $40000 again. If it drops below $36000, next level of support is $30000.  

Latest comments on Bitcoin:

“There are many institutional investors who bought $BTC at the 30-32k level. The Coinbase outflow on Jan 2nd was a three-year high. Speculative guess, but if these guys are behind this bull-run, they’ll protect the 30k level. Even if we have a dip, it wouldn’t go down below 28k”. --- Crypto-Quant CEO Ki-Young Ju 1/13/2021 

The incoming Biden administration’s plan to flood the U.S. economy with trillions of dollars could ignite the next leg of the Bitcoin BTC bull market, as more investors seek refuge from a crumbling United States dollar. ---Cointelegraph 1/9/2021

比特币从1月8日的高点42000美元跌至1月11日的低点30261美元共跌了11739美元后开始反弹，目前交易于37100美元附近，连续两天快速上涨超过6800美元。这显示最近的修正已经结束，并且已经重新开始其上升趋势。36000美元现在成为关键支撑。如果$ 36000能守稳，则可能准备再次挑战$ 40000。如果它跌破36000美元，则下一个支撑位是30000美元。

关于比特币的最新评论：

 “有很多机构投资者在30-32k的价格购买了BTC。1月2日的Coinbase资金流出量为三年来最高水平。投机猜测，但如果这些家伙是牛市推动者，他们将保护30k的水平。即使跌穿，也不会跌至28k以下。”---Crypto-Quant首席执行官Ju Ki-Young Ju 1/13/2021

即将上任的拜登政府计划以数万亿美元充斥美国经济，这可能会点燃比特币牛市的下一波升势，因为越来越多的投资者会离开下跌的美元而进入比特币避险。---Cointelegraph 1/9/2021

A Stock For Speculators 一只投机股票

AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.,(ACRX 1.92) a specialty pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of acute pain. The company's lead product candidate is DSUVIA, a 30 mcg sufentanil sublingual tablet for the treatment of moderate-to-severe acute pain. It also develops ZALVISO, a pre-programmed and patient-controlled analgesia system that allows hospital patients with moderate-to-severe acute pain to self-dose with sufentanil sublingual tablets to manage their pain. The company was formerly known as SuRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in August 2006. AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.

Positives for ACRX:

1. Products: DSUVIA has been approved by both FDA and EU, ACRX projected that DSUVIA may reach a peak annual sales of $1.1Billion.  ZALVISO has been approved by EU and it is in Phase 3 trial in US. The potential sales of both DSUVIA and ZALVISO are going to be huge for the  $218 millions capitalized company.

2. Sales and earnings: This quarter earning growth +60%, next year earning growth +55%.  Four analysts is for revenues of US$32.4m in 2021, which would reflect a huge 638% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 56% to US$0.28. ACRX reports earning on February 4.

3. Analysts opinions: 4 analysts follow stock, 3 rated ACRS Buy, consensus price target is 4.95. Cantor analyst target is 9. 

4. Hedge fund trend: Increasing number of hedge fund buy into stock,there is a total of 5 hedge funds holding stock in Q3.

5. Technicals: Yesterday it had a big 60% up with near 26X average volume means strong upside momentum. Stock retrace a little and try to hold most  of yesterday's gain today. It broke above a downtrend line since 2018, trend has turned up. Next technical target is 2.5 then 3. Support is 1.7.

AcelRx Pharmaceuticals，Inc.（ACRX 1.92）是一家专业制药公司致力于治疗急性疼痛疗法的开发和商业化。该公司的主要候选产品是DSUVIA，一种30 mcg舒芬太尼舌下片剂，用于治疗中度至重度急性疼痛。它还开发了ZALVISO，ZALVISO是一种预编程的，患者控制的镇痛系统，可使患有中度至重度急性疼痛的住院患者自行服用舒芬太尼舌下片剂来减轻疼痛。该公司的前身为SuRx Pharmaceuticals，Inc.，并于2006年8月更名为AcelRx Pharmaceuticals，Inc.。AcelRx Pharmaceuticals，Inc.成立于2005年，总部位于加利福尼亚州红木城。

ACRX的优点：

 1.产品：DSUVIA已获得FDA和EU的批准，ACRX预计DSUVIA的年销售额达到峰值时会达到11亿美元。 ZALVISO已获欧盟批准，目前正在美国进行3期试验。DSUVIA和ZALVISO的潜在销售量对于这家市值只为2.18亿美元的公司来说影响会是巨大的。

 2.销售和收入：本季度收入估计增长+ 60％，明年收入增长+ 55％。到2021年，四位分析师的销售估计将达到3240万美元，这相较过去12个月的销售额大幅增长638％。预计亏损将大幅下降，减少56％至每股0.28美元。ACRX将于2月4日发布财报。

 3.分析师意见：4位分析师关注股票，3位对ACRS的评级为“买入”，共识目标价为4.97。Cantor分析师目标价最高为9。 

 4.对冲基金趋势：对冲基金购买股票的数量增加，第三季度共有5家对冲基金持有股票。

 5.技术面：昨日以接近26倍平均成交量大幅上涨60％意味着强劲的上涨动力。ZCRX并且向上突破自2018年以来的下跌趋势线，趋势转升。今天尝试着稳固而回调不多并保持昨日大部分涨幅。下一个技术目标是2.5，然后是3。支撑是1.7.

A Timely Value Play 一只合时的价值股

 Under an extreme valuation environment in the stock market, no PE,  high PE and multi-hundred percent increase stocks will likely get sold and come down big as the market correct. 2021 will likely be the year of market correction after an euphoric rise in 2020. During the correction, investors will switch out of past high flyers and move into value stocks.  Value stocks are safe stocks during a market correction. Aflac (AFL) is such a value stock.

Aflac Incorporated (AFL 46.27), through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates through two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, income support, and whole and term life insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment plans under saving type insurance products. The Aflac U.S. segment provides cancer, accident, short-term disability, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and term and whole life insurance products in the United States. It sells its products through sales associates, brokers, independent corporate agencies, individual agencies, and affiliated corporate agencies. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia.

The goods of AFL:

1. Valuation: Forward PE is only 9, Book Value is $45,  Price to Sales is 1.44, Dividend 2.97%.

2. Sector: AFL is in the hot financial sector. It is timely to buy because earnings reports of this sector is due soon. AFL reports on February 3.

3. Institution participation: There are increasing number of hedge fund (a total of 34) bought into it in Q3 and the stock is a very healthy 61.7% own by institutions.

4. Technicals: AFL is on the verge of breaking out after an 11/2 months correction. Its next two resistances are 50 and 55. Support is 44. 

5. Analysts opinions: Two analysts upgrade AFL  on Friday and today. Average target is 50.

 

在股票市场的极端高估值环境下，没有PE，高PE和百分之几百以上增长的股票很可能会在市场下跌调整时被抛售而大幅下跌。经2020年大涨之后，2021年很有可能是市场下跌调整的一年。在调整期间，投资者将摆脱以往的高价估值股，而转向价值股。在市场调整期间，价值股票是安全的股票。 Aflac（AFL）就是这样的一只价值股票。

 Aflac Incorporated（AFL 46.27）通过其子公司提供补充健康和人寿保险产品。它通过Aflac日本和Aflac美国两个部门运营。Aflac日本部门提供癌症，医疗，收入支持以及全程和定期人寿保险产品，以及储蓄型保险产品下的WAYS和儿童养老金计划。 Aflac美国分部在美国提供癌症，意外事故，短期残疾，严重疾病，医院赔偿，牙科，视力以及定期和终身人寿保险产品。它通过销售伙伴，经纪人，独立公司机构，个人机构和附属公司机构销售产品。该公司成立于1955年，总部位于乔治亚州哥伦布。

 AFL的好处：

 1.估值：前瞻市盈率仅为9，账面价值为$ 45，股价/销售为1.44，股息为2.97％。

 2.行业：AFL处于现在热门的金融领域。由于该行业的收益报告即将到来，因此现在购买是及时的。 AFL将于2月3日报财报。

 3.机构参与：在第三季度，有越来越多的对冲基金（共34只）购买AFL，机构持有AFL股票为非常健康的61.7％。

 4.技术分析：AFL在经过11/2个月的调整后即将向上突破。接下来的两个阻力是50和55。支撑是44.

5. 分析师意见：两位分析师分别在上周五及今天调升AFL评级， 平均目标价为50。

Stocks To Buy Before Stimulus刺激方案前可买的股票

Even though most stocks seem to be overvalue but the stock market is in a safe period now before Biden's economic stimulus plan comes to fruition. Bitcoin has dropped from Friday high of $42000 to this mornings low of $30261, a 28% slide. One good thing about Bitcoin is it corrects fast, you don't have the agony of a drag on long correction. I believe $30000 is a good support for Bitcoin, the correction may have already finished as institutions may find $30000 a good price to get in . The economic stimulus should be good for both stock and Bitcoin. So what looks good to buy now base on the above assumptions for the stock market and Bitcoin? Below are my suggestions:

1. GBTC 38.21 ( Grayscale Bitcoin Trust)is a buy after the sharp Bitcoin correction during the weekend. GBTC supports are at 35 and 32. Resistance is 49.

2. GM 44.92 (General Motors) is a buy as it determines to forge ahead with EV developments and has a low PE of 7. GM is a growth and value stock. Stock looks ready to break its all time high at 46.76. It then would challenge 50. Support is 41.5.

3. MJ  17.55 (ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF) is a buy as Biden's policy on cannabis should be good for cannabis stocks. MJ is also looking real good on the chart. It has formed a Cup and Handle breakout pattern. MJ support is 15, resistance are 20 and 23. 

4. IMMR 11.95 (Immersion Corp.) is a buy because its haptic device is in every Sony Play Station 5. And it could be included Microsoft's Xbox also.  IMMR resistance is 14 then 18, support is 11. 

尽管大多数股票价值都被高估了，但是在拜登的经济刺激计划付诸实施之前，股票市场现在处于安全时期。比特币已经从周五的42000美元的高点跌至今天早些时候的30261美元的低点，跌幅达28％。比特币的一件好事是它可以快速调整，您不必担心长期调整的难熬。我相信30000美元是比特币的很好支撑，修正可能已经完成，$30000美元是机构入市的好机会。经济刺激计划应该对股票和比特币都有利。那么，基于股票市场和比特币的上述假设，现在买什么好呢？以下是一些建议：

 1.比特币周末大幅调整后，GBTC（灰度比特币信托）38.21是买入对象。 GBTC的支撑位是35和32。阻力为49。

 2.通用汽车（GM）44.92 是买入对象，因为它坚决驱动电动汽车的发展，而其PE仅为7。它是个成长及价值股。该股看来准备突破其历史高位46.76。然后它将挑战50。支撑位是41.5。

 3. MJ 17.55（ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF）是买入对象，因为拜登的大麻政策应该对大麻股票有利。 MJ在图表上看起来也不错。它已经形成了杯状图形突破模式。 MJ的支撑位是15，阻力位是20和23。

 4. IMMR 11.95（Immersion Corp.）是买如对象，因为它的触觉设备用在每个Sony Play Station 5中。而且Microsoft的Xbox或许也会用它的设备。 IMMR阻力是14，然后是18，支撑是11。

Which Bubble Burst First？那个泡沫会先爆破？

After Bitcoin hit $42000 on January 8, 2021, it has been consolidating between $34300 and $41200 during the weekend. It seem only reasonable for the rise to take a break after a surge from $30000 to $42000 since just January 5, 2021. Bitcoin is resting while waiting for the next upside catalyst, a $3 Trillion economic stimulus package from the new administration. Bitcoin trend is still bullish but the catalysts is at least 10days away as Biden inaugurates in January 20. So expect short term correction for Bitcoin as it ranges between $34000 and $42000. As Bitcoin corrects, major altcoins such as Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Lite Coin have been trying to catch up and performed much better than Bitcoin in the last few days. Bank of America anaylst called Bitcoin the biggest bubble ever with Bitcoin risen about 950% since 2019. The thing is we don't really know when a bubble is going to burst, besides 950% gain in two year  is far from the 2600% 2017 one year gain before it crashed.  My thinking is if we rate the severity of bubble using percentage gain than NIO +1602% and TSLA +814% just this year should burst first before Bitcoin. Even though I still bullish on Bitcoin, but I do think Bitcoin miners Marathon Patent Group MARA +2737% and Riot Blockchain RIOT+1899% just in 1 year is way ahead of Bitcoin's 496% gain. So they will have more severe corrections. 

As far as the stock market is concern even though most analysts are still bullish for this year a few market veterans are calling for a big melt down in a month or two. I think it make sense as stock valuation is the highest ever, what goes up must come down. Based on the fact that stock market reacts ahead of expectation, since stock market surged last year as economy was weak (people expect will turn better), the logic for this year should be as the economy growth, the stock market should tank (people expect fed will stop easing and interest rate goes higher). Mega big tech stocks index FANG+ index is up 144% since March 2020 low got to be the biggest move in history. Their very high PEG ratios are hard to sustain. 

Latest Bitcoin news:

1. The problem is that the market is overleveraged and overwhelmingly longing Bitcoin. The term longing means buying BTC with borrowed capital in the derivatives market. The funding rate of Bitcoin in the futures market has exceeded 0.15%. On average, the BTC funding rate hovers at around 0.01%, so it is about 15 times higher than the normal rate. Funding is a mechanism that futures exchanges use to find balance in the market. Every eight hours, long or short contract holders have to pay a fee to one another. Longs pay shorts if the market is majority long, and vice versa. If the funding fee is above 0.15%, it means that the market is extremely overheated and the vast majority of the market is longing Bitcoin. ---Cointelegraph 1/10/2021

2. Coinbase outflows often signal institutional buy orders, as institutions and high-net-worth investors prefer to store their assets away from centralized platforms. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant,said “FYI, Coinbase outflow on Jan 2 was an all-time high. It seems institutions bought $BTC when the price above 30k. $BTC bull market isn't over.” If the Coinbase outflows and premium remain high, the probability of a large correction should decrease in the foreseeable future. ---Cointelegraph 1/10/2021

3. Tom Lee thinks that BTC price can correct 50% from the current levels. Speaking to Yahoo Finance, Lee said that’s a pretty typical correction for crypto. In fact, I think last year it had a couple of drawdowns nearly that size. If it looks like 2017, I think bitcoin will be up at least 300%,” he said. “I don’t think it’s straight up with a ruler, it’s going to be pretty jagged but at the end of the year, bitcoin is much higher.” ---Coingape 1/10/2021

4. The price of Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high above $42,000 on Jan. 8, surging by 9% in merely three hours. At the time, there was a high premium on Coinbase, which meant U.S. buyers drove up the market by aggressively accumulating BTC. But, there is continuous selling pressure coming from Asia, particularly from South Korea. Whales have been selling since the start of 2021. As an example, when Bitcoin first surpassed $40,000, large whales began to sell BTC even as the price fell below $40,000. Within three hours, on Jan. 7, so-called “mega whales” on Binance sold off a total of four times, driving extreme volatility. --- Cointelegraph 01/09/2021

5. The incoming Biden administration’s plan to flood the U.S. economy with trillions of dollars could ignite the next leg of the Bitcoin BTC bull market, as more investors seek refuge from a crumbling United States dollar.Joe Biden has asked Congress to provide Americans with $2,000 in stimulus payments to help offset the economic devastation of Covid-19. The incoming president has also proposed a $3 trillion tax and infrastructure package as part of his “Build Back Better” program. Biden doubled downon his call for more direct relief to Americans following Friday’s disappointing jobs report showing a loss of 140,000 positions in December.---Cointelegraph 01/09/2021

6. Wall Street’s popular value investor Bill Miller has been heavily backing BTC in recent times. during his recent interview with CNBC, the mutual fund titan said:“One of the things that’s interesting about bitcoin is that it gets less risky the higher it goes. That’s the opposite of what happens with most stocks.” ---CNBC 1/8/2021

比特币在2021年1月8日达到42000美元后，在周末一直在34300至41200美元之间盘整。自2021年1月5日以来，从30000美元飙升至42000美元之后，下跌回调是合理的。比特币在等待下一个上行催化剂（新政府推出的3万亿美元经济刺激计划）时暂时会止升修正。比特币趋势仍然看涨，但拜登至还有10天在1月20日才就职，因此预计比特币短期会在34000美元至42000美元之间盘整。尽管比特币在宿生，在过去几天中，主要的山寨币，例如以太坊，比特币现金和精简币，一直在努力追赶上来并表现得比比特币好得多。美国银行分析师称比特币是有史以来最大的泡沫因为比特币自2019年以来上涨了约950％。问题是我们真的不知道泡沫会何时破裂，但两年内950％的增长还远未达到2017年的2600％崩溃前一年的涨幅。我的想法是，如果我们用百分比增幅来评估泡沫的严重性，那么今年上升 1602％的NIO 和+ 814％的TSLA 就应该在比特币之前首先泡沫爆破。尽管我仍然看好比特币，但我认为，仅今年以来，比特币挖矿司（MARA） + 2737％和Riot Blockchain （RIOT） + 1899％远远超过了比特币496％的涨幅而有些过份。因此，他们将会有较大的下跌调整。

就股票市场而言，尽管大多数分析师仍对今年看涨，但仍有少数专家预测在一两个月内大幅下跌。我认为大跌是有道理的，因为股票估值是有史以来最高的，大涨后就必然会大幅下降。基于股市预先反映期望的道理，由于去年股市因经济疲弱而飙升（人们期望经济会好转），因此今年的逻辑应该是经济增长，股市应该下跌（人们期望美联储会停止宽松，利率上升）。另外，超级大型科技股指数FANG +指数自2020年3月的低点以来上涨了144％，为历史上最大的涨幅。它们过份高的PEG比例很难维持。

最新比特币新闻：

 1.问题在于市场过度杠杆化，并且绝大多数都在“Long"比特币。术语“Long”是指在衍生品市场上用借入的资金购买BTC。期货市场上比特币的资助率已超过0.15％。 BTC资助率平均徘徊在0.01％左右，因此是正常利率的15倍左右。资助率是期货交易所用来寻找市场平衡的一种机制。每8小时，多头或空头合约持有人必须互相付费。如果市场看涨占多数，则多头支付空头，反之亦然。如果资助率超过0.15％，则意味着市场极度过热，并且绝大多数市场都在Long比特币。 -Cointelegraph 1/10/2021 

 2.Coinbase的比特币流出通常预示着机构的买单，因为机构和高净值投资者更倾向于将资产存储在远离集中式平台的地方。 CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju表示：“仅供参考，1月2日，Coinbase的资金流出创历史新高。似乎机构在比特币价格超过30k时购买了BTC。 BTC牛市尚未结束。”如果Coinbase的流出量和溢价保持较高水平，则在可预见的将来大幅调整的可能性应降低。 -Cointelegraph 1/10/2021 

 3.汤姆·李（Tom Lee）认为BTC价格可以从当前水平修正50％。 Lee在接受Yahoo Finance采访时说，这是加密货币的非常典型的修正。实际上，我认为去年它有几次该规模的调整。如果如2017年一样，我认为比特币将至少上涨300％，”他说。 “我不认为它会像一直的升，它会锯齿状的行走，但是到了今年年底，比特币会比现在要高得多。” -Coingape 1/10/2021

 4.1月8日，比特币的价格创下了历史新高，达到42,000美元以上，仅在三个小时内就飙升了9％。当时，Coinbase的溢价很高，这意味着美国买家通过积极积累BTC来拉高市场。但是，来自亚洲，尤其是来自韩国的持续销售压力。自2021年初以来，鲸鱼（大户）一直在抛售。例如，当比特币首次超过40,000美元时，即使价格跌至40,000美元以下，大型鲸鱼也开始出售BTC。在1月7日的三个小时内，Binance上的所谓“巨鲸”总共卖出了四次，导致市场极度动荡。 -Cointelegraph 20年1月9日

 5.即将上任的拜登政府计划向美国经济注入数万亿美元的计划，可能会点燃比特币BTC牛市的下一波上升，因为越来越多的投资者寻求躲避美元的贬值。乔·拜登已要求国会向美国人提供2,000美元的刺激资金付款以抵消Covid-19造成的经济损失。即将上任的总统还提出了3万亿美元的税收和基础设施一揽子计划，作为他的“重建更好”计划的一部分。周五令人失望的就业报告显示，12月亏损了14万个职位，拜登对美国人提供更多直接救济的态度倍增。--Cointelegraph 2021年9月1日 

 6. 华尔街受欢迎的价值投资者比尔·米勒（Bill Miller）最近一直大力支持BTC。该共同基金巨头在最近接受CNBC采访时说：“比特币有趣的一件事是，价位越高，比特币的风险就越小。这与大多数股票的情况恰恰相反。” --CNBC 1/8/2021

One Democrat Senator Object Stimulus, Stock, Bitcoin, Gold Plunged一位民主党参议员反对派钱，股票，比特币，黄金急跌

Biden has made new stimulus checks a central promise, specifically telling Georgia voters that they would be getting $2,000 payments if Democrats won Senate elections in the state this week. According toBiden’s plans for a major new economic relief package boosting stimulus payments to $2,000 have run "into possibly fatal opposition from his own party Friday as Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) said he would “absolutely not” support a new round of checks." Manchin, who as the WaPo describes as "a moderate who will hold great sway in a Senate split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans" made his views known even as the Biden team worked to develop a coronavirus relief package that would include new stimulus checks, extended unemployment benefits, and much more. The only problem: Biden did not expect one of his own to turn against him in what appears to be a reversal of the blue wave. ---ZeroHedge

The above news together with  talks of removing Trump from presidency, non-farm payroll -140000 much worse than expectation of +50000 and US virus death toll, the highest ever triggering the sell off of US major market indexes. Both Bitcoin and Gold followed, also pulling back. Markets continue sell off for the day ahead of the weekend is likely. Following charts are sourced from Finviz.com:

 

拜登将新的刺激措施检查作为一项主要承诺，特别是告诉乔治亚州选民，如果民主党人在本周赢得该州参议院选举，他们将获得2,000美元的救助金。根据拜登的重大经济救济计划的计划包括将刺激救助金提高至2,000美元，华盛顿邮报报道 “但周五收到本党的致命反对，因为民主党参议员乔·曼钦三世（DW.Va.）表示他“绝对不会”支持新一轮的救助。”华盛顿邮报 形容曼钦为“一个温和派，他将在参议院以50:50的比例在民主党和共和党之间取得重大胜利”，当拜登（Biden）小组致力于开发包括新刺激冠状病毒缓解方案及延长的失业救济金等等之际乔·曼钦三世宣布了他的观点。现在的问题是：拜登没想到自己的人会在蓝波的逆转中反对他。 ---ZeroHedge 

上述消息加上罢免特朗普的谈论，非农就业数据-140000，远低于预期的+50000和美国单日病毒死亡人数达到最高记录，引发了美国主要市场指数被抛售。比特币和黄金也都随之回落。在这周末前一天，市场可能会继续被抛售。下面图表源自Finviz.com:

Bitcoin $50000 This Weekend? 这个周末比特币达到50000美元？

From yesterday's 4PM(Eastern) close of $33801 to today's 4PM (Eastern) close of $35960, Bitcoin rallied $2159 in 24hours. Since 4 PM today, Bitcoin rally has been non-stop, it is now 10:35 PM and it's  trading at $37571, another $1611 rise.  If it continue to rise at this rate, I wouldn't be surprise to see $50000 Bitcoin by this weekend. I presented reasons of why it is easy for Bitcoin to reach $50000 by 2021 on my December 6, 2020 blog "Why Bitcoin Can Go Above $50000 Next Year Easily"(https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/12/why-bitcoin-can-go-above-50000-next.html ) but I did not expect it to happen so fast.  Bitcoin price was around $29300 on December 6. It has been only a month has passed and it's only a little over $10000 to $50000. With today's Democrat sweep the Georgia senate races, Democrats are now in control of the presidency, senate and the house, more fiscal stimulus is likely to come soon. This is like adding oil into the Bitcoin fire and traders are probably front running institutions and retail investors in buying Bitcoin as fear of missing out is now in effect. Why the Bitcoin chart gone parabolic and vertical and there is still no sense of fear of the top? It is because institutions are just started to get in and retail investors still need to get over their fear of the Bitcoin collapse of 2017. Since $50000 is so close, the likely scenario is to touch $5000 first then take longer time to rest and correct. 

Latest Bitcoin related news：

1. The world’s oldest cryptocurrency Bitcoin settled around the $35,000 level for several hours before heading upward yet again, hitting $36,122 as of press time. “With a lot of demand from new market participants, both institutional and retail, it is reasonable to assume that we keep going up,” said Michael Gord, chief executive officer of trading firm Global Digital Assets. “A $650 billion market cap is still tiny in comparison to other global currencies or commodities that bitcoin is competing with.” ---Coindesk 01/06/2021

2.  Bitcoin’s BTC parabolic rally intensified on Wednesday as the price broke above $36,000 for the first time, sending a strong signal that the bull market still has further room to grow. The flagship cryptocurrency peaked at $36,574.47 on Bitstamp, easily surpassing its previous all-time high. The price has gained 8% on the day and more than 25% over the past week.So far,Bitcoin’s digital-gold narrative appears to have squashed any semblance of a major pullback as institutions and retail traders buy the dips. As Cointelegraph recently reported Bitcoin is experiencing a supply shortage as major buyers like Grayscale and PayPal continue to scoop up all of the newly mined BTC. ---Cointelegraph 01/06/2021 

3. Anthony Scaramucci, founder and co-managing partner of SkyBridge Capital,  told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Wednesday that his firm is “quite bullish” on bitcoin’s store of value and sees it “replacing” gold.Scaramucci, a former White House communications director, added that Democratic control of Congress would be “great” for cryptocurrencies due to expectations of “tremendous” money printing under a federal government controlled by the party. ---CNBC 1/6/2021

从昨天4PM（东部时间）收盘价33801美元到今天的4PM（东部时间）收盘价35960美元，比特币在24小时内上涨了2159美元。从今天下午4点开始，比特币的涨势一直没有停止，现在是晚上10点35分，交易价格为37571美元，再上升了1611美元。如果它继续以这种速度上涨，那么到本周末看到$ 50000比特币是不足为奇的。我在2020年12月6日的博客“为什么明年比特币可以轻松地超过50000美元”(https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/12/why-bitcoin-can-go-above-50000-next.html)上介绍了为什么到2021年比特币很容易达到50000美元的原因，但我没想到它会这么快就会到来。比特币12月6日的价位在19300附近。仅仅一个月过去，比特币距离50000美元只差1万多美元而已。随着今天的民主党席卷佐治亚州参议院竞选后，民主党人现在已经控制了总统，参议院和众议院，不久可能就会出台更多的财政刺激措施。这就像在比特币大火中加油一样，比特币价会更上层楼。这两天炒家可能是抢先购买比特币等候更多的机构和散户因为担心错过机会而进场。为什么比特币走势图现在呈抛物线和垂直上升但仍然没有到顶的恐惧感呢？这是因为机构才刚刚开始介入而散户投资者仍然需要克服对2017年比特币崩溃的恐惧。因为$50000是如此接近，所以可能的情况是先触摸$50000，然后花费长些时间休息和修正。

最新比特币有关新闻：

1. 世界上最古老的加密货币比特币在几个小时内一直保持在35,000美元左右的水平，然后再次上涨，截至发稿时已达到36122美元。交易公司Global Digital Assets的首席执行官Michael Gord说：“在新的机构和散户参与的大量需求情况下，可以合理地假设我们会继续上涨。” “与比特币竞争的其他全球货币或商品相比，6500亿美元的市值仍然微不足道。” --- Coindesk 20年1月6日

2. 由于价格首次突破36,000美元，比特币抛物线式反弹加剧，强烈发出牛市仍有进一步增长空间的信号。旗舰加密货币在Bitstamp上的峰值为36,574.47美元，轻松超过其历史最高点。价格当天上涨了8％，过去一周上涨了25％以上。到目前为止，随着机构和零售交易者的逢低买入，比特币为数字黄金的故事似乎已经消除了任何重大回调的迹象。正如Cointelegraph最近报道的那样，由于Grayscale和PayPal等主要买家继续抢购所有新开采的比特币，比特币正面临供应短缺。 -Cointelegraph 20年1月6日

3. SkyBridge Capital的创始人兼联合管理合伙人安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇（Anthony Scaramucci）周三对CNBC的“资本连接”表示，他的公司对比特币的价值存储“相当看好”，并认为它“取代了”黄金。 ，他补充说，在民主党控制的国会下“大量”印钞对加密货币会有极大的好处”。 --CNBC 1/6/2021

Cannabis ETF MJ Breaks Out 大麻ETF MJ 突破

Cannabis stocks are rallying on the potential Democrat sweep of the Georgia senators run-off election.This raises investors hope of nationwide decriminalization using pot.  Cannabis stocks are rallying hard today with CGC +16.01% to 31.34, CRON +19.34% to 8.97, TLRY +24.52% to 11.89, and HEXO +19.19% to 4.92. Followings are some recent cannabis related news:

。Cannabis stocks are witnessing the dawn of their second boom after Joe Biden’s presidential victory. Democratic Vice-presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris said during the vice presidential debate :“We will decriminalize marijuana, and we will expunge the records of those how have been convicted of marijuana.” This should benefit cannabis stocks. 

。Canada has legalize marijuanna use for the entire country in 2018. In the US, following are the 15 states, plus Washington, DC, that have legalized recreational weed—and medical marijuana, as well: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, DC, Illinois, Maine, Massachusette, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey , Nevada, Oregon, South Dakota, Vermont and Washington. More states are likely to join this list.

Instead of buying individual cannabis stocks, one can ride the cannabis stock rally by buying a ETF. This can avoid individual stock risks. The ETF of interest is MJ. MJ is up nearly 18% today. Its weekly chart is immaculate. It has both the bullish Double Bottom and Cup and Handle breakout formations. MJ's immediate upside target is 20 while longer term target is 23. 

ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ 16.52+15.12%)

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the Prime Alternative Harvest Index. The fund will invest at least 80% of its total assets, exclusive of collateral held from securities lending, in the component securities of the index and in ADRs and GDRs based on the component securities in the index. The index is concentrated in the Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology and Life Sciences group of industries and tracks the performance of the exchange-listed common stock (or corresponding ADRs or GDRs) of companies across the globe. The fund is non-diversified.  The 10 largest hold inside MJ are APHA, GWPH, WEED, ACB, CRON, TLRY, GWRG, VFF, HEXO and CWEB, combined they represent 64.48% of the total assets.

大麻股票在民主党潜在的席卷乔治亚州参议员选举中大升，这增加了投资者对使用大麻进行全国性非刑事化的希望。大麻股票今天强劲上涨，CGC + 11.58％至30.17，CRON + 15.03％至8.65，TLRY + 13.25％至11.85，HEXO + 13.01％至4.69。以下是一些最近与大麻有关的新闻：

。在乔·拜登（Joe Biden）总统获胜之后，大麻股票见证了第二次繁荣的曙光。民主党副总统候选人参议员卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）在副总统辩论中说：“我们将使大麻合法化，并删除那些被判犯有大麻罪的记录。”这将使大麻股票受益。

。加拿大已于2018年将大麻在全国使用合法化。在美国，以下15个州以及休闲大麻和医用大麻也已合法化的华盛顿特区：阿拉斯加，亚利桑那州，加利福尼亚州，科罗拉多州的哥伦比亚特区，伊利诺伊州，缅因州，马萨诸塞州，密歇根州，蒙大拿州，新泽西州，内华达州，俄勒冈州，南达科他州，佛蒙特州和华盛顿。可能有更多州加入此列表。

与其购买个别大麻股票，不如通过购买ETF来参与大麻股票的上涨。这样可以避免单个股票的风险。关注的ETF是MJ。今天，MJ上涨了近15％。它的周线图表是完美无缺的。它既有看涨的双底形态，又有杯状突破形态。 MJ的近期上升目标是20，长期一点的目标是23。

ETFMG Alternative HarvestETF（MJ 16.52 +15.12%） 该投资寻求提供的投资结果，在扣除费用和支出之前，通常与Prime Alternative Harvest 指数的总回报表现相对应。 基金将其总资产的至少80％（不包括从证券借贷获得的抵押品）投资于该指数的成分证券以及基于指数成分证券的ADR和GDR。 该指数集中在制药，生物技术和生命科学等行业组中，跟踪在交易所上市来至全球的普通股（或相应的ADR或GDR）的表现。 该基金是非多元化的。MJ 持有最多的十只股票是：APHA, GWPH, WEED, ACB, CRON, TLRY, GWRG, VFF, HEXO及CWEB。它们代表了64.48% MJ的资产总值。

The Effects Of Georgia Senators Election 乔治亚州参议员选举的影响

According to NBC news, Democrat Raphael Warnock is projected to win the Georgia U.S. Senate special election runoffagainst incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler. In the other Senate runoff election, Democrat Jon Ossoff was leading Republican Sen. David Perdue, but NBC said the race was too close to call. It looks very likely that Democrat will have control of the Senate.

If Democrats take control of the U.S. Senate (which is probable now) following a run-off election in Georgia,these are the prospects of what to happen: $2000 stimulus check possible, could lead to higher tax and tougher regulations for corporations, less pressure on the Fed to ease monetary policy, friendlier regulatory environment for crypto currencies and cannabis companies. Markets in response: Big tech stocks get dumped, financial, material and industrial stocks jump, Treasuries lower, small cap stocks rally, cannabis stocks and crypto currencies up.

Stocks and crypto currencies are likely stay up for the near term.

Followings are the states of the markets (chart source Finviz.com):

根据美国全国广播公司（NBC）的消息，在佐治亚州参议院选举中，民主党人拉斐尔·沃诺克（Raphael Warnock）预计将在现任共和党共和党人凯利·洛夫勒（Kelly Loeffler）的竞选中获胜。 在另一项参议院参议院选举中，民主党人乔恩·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff）领先共和党参议员戴维·珀杜（David Perdue），但NBC表示，这场选举太接近了。 民主党很有可能会控制参议院。

如果民主党在佐治亚州大选中进行选举后，民主党控制了美国参议院（现在很有可能），则将有可能发生的情况是：可能会实施分发2000美元的刺激措施，可能导致更高的企业税和对企业更严格的监管，美联储放宽货币政策的压力减小 ，为加密货币和大麻公司提供更友好的监管环境。 市场的反应是：大型科技股被抛售，金融，材料和工业股跳升，美国国债走低，小型股上涨，大麻股和加密货币上涨。

股票及加密货币短期继续看涨。

下面是现在市场状况 （图表源自Finviz.com）：